dudacek

I was kinda down on the zucker and Greenway signings as meh over pays at the time. But looking at what the free agent market ended up being and what players moved over the summer they look a little wiser. Not seeing guys like Joshua and Marchment as big upgrades - roster or contract - and no guarantee we could have got them.

I think the whole point of Chinakov would be to create depth and options. Quinn/Zucker/Chinakov/kulich for offence Benson/Doan/Greenway/McLeod for defence Ideally you’d have 8 options to plug into 6 spots in your top 9 You mix and match around Norris, Tuch and Thompson based on health, chemistry, opponent and who is going well. Krebs, Danforth and Malenstyn are your 4th line options. Basically it’s about not repeating the Quinn Achilles mistake and starting the season with more good players than what you need. If everyone is healthy, give the ice time to those who earn it. If they aren’t you’re covered.

I think the best way to think of Chinakhov is Jack Quinn, not exactly his game, but what he is and what he could be: A young winger who has flashed tantalizing offensive talent but has yet to break through and also battled injury and raised questions through at times spotty play. Hed have similar value based on the beholder and be a risky trade for both sides.

The model says a 21 and 19 1s is literally twice as good a team as 20 1s, 1 player can make a huge difference.

The model does seem to assign far greater variation to the good players. Dahlin is worth Thompson and Tuch together, Tuch is worth Byram and Peterka together. And it recognizes that guys like Clifton and Bryson are actually negatives but not to the same degree Dahlin is a positive. I assume usage and ice time are factors What I tired to say with the previous post is a think the model actually does try to account for that

Yeah, I mean it’s just an honest attempt to quantify evergreen hockey questions like who is more valuable: JJ Peterka or Bowen Byram? (They’re both +4) And it completely ignore the pertinent question of the whole not equaling the sum of its parts. For a decent reference point +9 would have been the equivalent of the Sabres losing no one and adding one good player, like a FilipnForsberg or a Noah Hanifan. Good conversation fodder, but that’s about it.

In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker First group minus the second, at least that’s how I read it

Peterka was a +4 player under their model, Kesselring a +6; the model thinks the Sabres got a better player. So the +9 represents the net value change of the players going in and out.

Their analytics model gives each player a ranking based on his overall impact. Its built on tangible measurements but I’m not sure it represents anything tangible like points in the standings, more like how valuable one guy is relative to the league mean. For example, Dahlin is the Sabres most effective player at +21, Bryson the worst at -13

That one makes me angry assuming the Sabres are done.

The model the piece is based on ranks Samuelsson in the 46th percentile defensively

I always get the CBus Russians confused, but as a group I like. Pretty sure he’s #3 of the 3, but what the hell, git er done Jarmo! 😁

The athletics model disagrees with us. Speaking strictly from the players out/players in perspective it says Buffalo improved more than all but 6 teams 7. Buffalo Sabres Net Rating added: +9 In: Josh Doan, Justin Danforth, Michael Kesselring, Conor Timmins, Alex Lyon Out: JJ Peterka, Sam Lafferty, Connor Clifton, Jacob Bernard-Docker There are a lot of folks who haven’t been thrilled with Buffalo’s offseason and that’s understandable. For the third straight year, it feels like it’s been time to push the chips in, spend some money and gun for a playoff spot. Instead, the Sabres made depth moves and shipped off a true top-six scorer without addressing the void afterward. ADVERTISEMENT It feels like a wasted opportunity, which probably makes Buffalo’s placement here seem out of touch with reality. Maybe it is — betting on the Sabres has been a terrible idea for over a decade. But maybe this is the year Buffalo does turn the corner, thanks to internal jumps buoyed by cleaned-up depth. Josh Doan is not as good as JJ Peterka. That’s a downgrade without question. But his underrated defensive game compared to Peterka’s issues without the puck does mean the gap might not be as large as their point totals suggest. Add more Justin Danforth and less Beck Malenstyn on the fourth line and it’s possible the Sabres can cover up the loss in the aggregate. There is arguably enough young, developing forward depth to sustain a Peterka-sized loss. The more important factor, though, is that the jump from Connor Clifton to Michael Kesselring is substantially larger than the drop from Peterka to Doan. Buffalo’s defense corps was a major weakness last season, one that Kesselring’s presence can help fix. He did well in a top-pair role when Utah ran into injuries last season, enough to believe he’s a true top-four defenseman. Pair him with Owen Power and Buffalo’s top four looks genuinely decent for the first time in a long time. The addition of Conor Timmins should help with things as well. He showed some promise in an elevated role with Pittsburgh, enough to believe he can form an actually good third pair with the defensively stout Mattias Samuelsson.Timmins isn’t much, but he’s probably a better option than what Buffalo was toiling with last year in the same role. Defensive depth is something this team has been missing for a while. If everything goes according to plan after this offseason, it’ll finally be a source of strength for Buffalo. And that could be what changes everything for this team. The Sabres have gone from one good pair led by Rasmus Dahlin to potentially three

Adams catches ***** for all his premature long-term deals, but in retrospect his failure wasn’t the contracts but some of the players he gave them too - evaluation or development. Because have-nots need to get them tied up when they’re young and idealistic if they want any hope of getting off the treadmill of being the Pittsburgh Pirates

Marner and Ehlers and Bennett and Ekblad are so far below what an open market would have dictated this summer it’s scary. Players arent chasing the money, they’re chasing the lifestyle and the have-nots are in even more trouble than even palm trees can fix

Yep. Samberg too. Hughes in New Jersey, McTavish in Anaheim, there are a few RFAs on the market that are going get good coin. But they’re the exception. Most of the signings are going to be Roslovics or Timmins types getting those types of salaries. And it’s not just the teams behind the Sabres who have space. 22 teams have $2M or more to spend. opening day caps aren’t going to look anything like we’re used to

No dispute over the track records. I’m not sure what you mean by “get there” you expect a majority of the teams below the Sabres to be close to the cap when all is said and done come October? I honestly don’t see how that’s possible. The figure might be dated but Allan Walsh recently said there is $275M left under the cap. Puckpedia says there are 29 roster spots left to fill. That’s nearly $10M per roster spot. The shopping aisles are empty. Teams have room but no one to spend it on.

Know nothing about the player and looking at his hockey db provides no answers either. The most interesting thing about it is how it makes you ask “how did a guy with those numbers” ever spend as much time on NHL rosters as he has? Maybe he has some Kozak-like qualities with Tyson being waiver eligible?

Lazy? Looks like they put hours of effort into it. Didnt really hit with me, but the average hockey fans at work (who don’t follow the Sabres as a rule) were talking about it and raving about it. 🤷

Not saying that this was a consideration with Byram, but it applies. Was listening to the PDOcast talk with Barkov's agent and they brought up how next summer is serving up a unique circumstance in terms of contract extensions due to the new CBA. Basically, there will be a window between July 1 and Sept. 15 2026, where anyone with one year left on their deal is eligible to sign an 8-year contract with their current team. After Sept. 15, it drops to 7 with their current team, 6 with anyone else. After July 1 2027, when they hit free agency, the longest deal those players can sign anywhere is 6 years. Byram could have millions of dollars in incentives to negotiate an extension, or a sign-and trade next summer.

He liked Buffalo too before he lived there 😈

There’s an evil part of me that wants the Sabres to be cutthroat enough that this played a role

I don’t know that it’s McKenna behind the cap space The Ducks roster moves don’t look like tanking, neither do the Sharks or the Jackets. Certainly not the Jets. Pittsburgh and Calgary still have assets to sell if they’re resetting. Maybe Chicago? I think it’s mostly math: the system hasn’t reset yet to the extra money available. The teams with space are the ones who weren’t able to exercise their plans. The players teams would have spent big on signed early and or left money on the table like Marner and Ehlers. nobody is giving McTavish or Byram contracts out of line with their comps just because they can. And there are only so many Jeannots and Dvoraks out there to overpay

Costs nothing but cap space. Lot of talk that he's made a deal with the Leafs, just waiting for another shoe to drop before they make it official.

For accuracy sake, Puckpedia has them at 13th in cap space but your point still stands. $7.3M is plenty of room to add a pretty good hockey player. ***** Separate from the Sabres, it's crazy how much cap space remains available around the league with no good free agents left to spend it on. 12 teams have $10M or more available. Six have $15M. The Ducks have $29M. The best remaining UFAs are guys like Roslovic and Olofsson. There's no point throwing an offer sheet out there for one of the restricted guys because everybody's got the space to match. It's a bizarre off-season after five years of dead cap. Plenty of room for hockey trades, it's just that GMS are so out of practice at those; they're used to sellers and buyers.