dudacek

Are the Sabres harder to play against? In/out since trade deadline 2024, when they seemed to start thinking this was a thing: Granato for Ruff Christie for Appert Cozens for Norris Mittelstadt for McLeod Skinner for Zucker Peterka for Doan Olofsson for Kulich Girgensons for Danforth Okposo for Malenstyn Erik Johnson for Byram Jokiharju for Kesselring Clifton for Timmins Im thinking incrementally but not dramatically? To my eyes Olofsson and Mittelstadt are two of the least edgy players we’ve had and Peterka and Skinner among the least diligent defensively. But it’s not like they’ve added a ton of edge with the guys they’ve brought in. Also, Peterka Cozens Mittelstadt and Skinner represent a pretty significant exodus in terms of “running it back” up front. New coach plus Cozens, Girgensons and Okposo all wore letters marks a real leadership shift. Half the D is new. This might not be a better hockey team, but these are not Donnie Granato’s Sabres.

1st numbers are the raw total, 2nd is where his numbers rank statistically in terms of the average NHL depth chart ie #7/8 forward equals a 3rd liner. Names are players with similar numbers in that particular category

I’m not sure exactly how replacement level is defined, but I don’t think it’s Peyton Krebs. Im thinking the 12/13th forward is a good proxy? There are 344 forward positions available in NHL starting line ups. Krebs rankings for various stats: Games played: 81 3/4 forward Goals: 10 8/9 (Wenberg, Tanev, Appleton, Ryan Strome) Points: 28 7/8 (Kerfoot, Mangiapane, Henrique, Dowd) TOI: 13:56 7/8 (Gallagher, Goodrow, Domi, Crouse) +/-: +1 6/7 (Boldy, Cooley, Barkov, Granlund Face offs: 49% 6/7 (Schiefel, Coyle, Point, Backlund) Hits: 136 3/4 (Lowry, Staal, Evans, Lomberg) Blocked shots: 32 7/8 (Tkachuk, Byfield, Paul, Kadri) SA%: 49.4% 6/7 (Rust, Point, Mercer, Marchand) Statistically speaking, last year’s Krebs was well-above replacement level and looks like a pretty solid 3rd-line NHL forward. (Stats based on all NHL forwards with 66+ games played)

Kozak has 36 points in three(!) AHL seasons combined I think he needs to start a little faster

Krebs is considerably better than Kozak.

Kulich/Thompson/Benson played well in general. Östlund and Rosen I think were a factor of easy minutes. They both have a higher skill level than the guys they were playing against and were concentrating on no-mistake hockey

Other than the usual possession studs Dahlin and Benson, the Sabres in general had Corsi under 50% down the stretch. Even Tuch was at just 46.5% The exceptions were the Rochester trio of Rosen, Östlund each over 55 and Kulich over 53 I got the impression the organization was using the stretch to try some things out. Wonder what conclusions they drew?

Samuelsson predominately got the Dahlin pairing but still only had a 45.8% Corsi. But he was +3 in 20:31

Another interesting snippet from that stretch run was Byram. He got 9 assists and was +6 with a 47.5% in 21 1/2 minutes I point this out because this was a time where Byram was not usually playing with Dahlin. His normal partner was Clifton, who had a Corsi of 42.8%

That stretch run was also very interesting in terms of what McLeod did with that ice time and the argument he’s not good enough to be a 2C Dude put up 22 points in his final 22 games and just one of those was on the PP and he wasn’t playing with Tage He was also a +4 but his Corsi dropped to 46.9%

Kulich centred Thompson, but he wasn’t the 1C - McLeod was getting nearly 4 more minutes of ice time a game. That was kinda my point earlier, as poorly expressed as it was. With Norris out, Kulich was getting 15:40 a night down the stretch compared to 19 for McLeod and 15 for Krebs. Kozak and Östlund split the 4c role and each got 10. Even if Kulich Thompson Benson remains a line, Kulich is not going to be the 1C

I think we need Tuch and Tage to be on different lines for sake of balance even if Lindy hadn’t decided they’re both right wings. I don’t like the heirarchy method of line construction. That said, right now Benson is a better hockey player than Quinn and a better complement to Norris and Thompson in terms of his game. As far as the Kulich thing goes, 1C was referring to ice time and usage. Benson’s “1st line” role would be Brieres Hecht or Drury’s Grier. And yes, it is a sad situation that he’s the teams best option there. Hopefully he grows into it.

Lines-wise I think Thompson/Norris should be a thing and Benson is the best choice to ride shotgun. I think McLeod/Tuch is going to win a lot of matchups. And I really like the idea of Zucker continuing his mentorship of Kulich on line 3. I could see Greenway fitting in with either of those units, with Quinn or Doan working on the other. Or run Quinn and Doan with Kulich on a sheltered line and put Zucker with McLeod and Tuch for offensive situations and Greenway for defensive.

Depth chart (hierarchy, not lines) Zucker Norris Thompson Benson McLeod Tuch Greenway Kulich Quinn Malenstyn Krebs Doan Rosen Kozak Danforth Dunne Östlund Helenius Power Dahlin* Byram Kesselring Samuelsson Timmons Jones Bryson* Novikov Johnson* Luukkonen Lyon Levi Ratzlaff *offhand

I would feel a lot better about the forwards if everyone would stop putting in a 24-point sophomore as the 1C. He’s not and everybody understands that, right? In answer to your question, they have the need, the space and the assets to add a good forward. I will believe it when I see it.

I think “for the right price”!kinda goes without saying in these kinds of discussions. He’s a talented 24-year-old winger with a ton of question marks. Quinn or Krebs straight across are ballpark offers; the kind of thing that gets done if the buyer and seller have opposite views of depreciated assets. Personally, I don’t do either. A top prospect or a 1st-rounder are too much, let alone 2 pieces; if that’s the ask, Waddell has no interest in trading him.

OK, my intent was more “maybe it wasn’t sucha bad idea keeping these guys” than “market sucks”. Basically, I think it was in line with “help where you can get it” 🤷

Curious what you dislike there @Thorny Do you think we should have let those guys walk?

He also floated the idea of him playing with Kesselring (which had the hosts going Dahlin Power?) Seemed very happy with adding Kesselring. Said they needed big right-handers and he’s happy they got some. Says the D corps is going to be a strength of the team.

Interesting to hear Byram tell Marty and Duff he aspires to being a Toews to Dahlin’s Makar. Says he watches and respects what Toews does and believes he can be that guy. Different than the reports saying he aspires to be the lead dog. Kid pretty clearly believes in himself, is focused on improving defensively and seems highly motivated. I feel good about what we’re going to get from him this year.

For sure. I don’t see Chinakov as a make-or-break decision, or as an obvious answer. I would like to add another NHL forward who is at least a 2nd-liner or could play on the 2nd line, full stop. Hes an option Id consider.

So essentially we’re only looking for another forward if he is a clear and obvious top 6 upgrade on Quinn or Kulich? We’re deep enough otherwise?

Out of NhL roster? The current 14th forward and 8th defenceman, so Kozak and Johnson? Out of the starting lineup, assuming full health? Whichever 2 of Malensten, Krebs, Danforth, Quinn, Kulich and Doan he happens to be outplaying? Id also include Greenway and Zucker in that group, but Lindy won’t. And doesn’t Sabrespace just assume one of Norris and Greenway will be out anyway? Should we just ignore that possibility?

It seems like just last week this board was clamouring to trade Byram for a forward and screaming how are we going to replace Peterka’s scoring. Did you think we were getting a special roster exemption for that guy? Chinakov has 23 goals in his last 83 games, Peterka has 27 in his last 77. Come on people, this isn’t rocket surgery.

It’s OK for the team to have 2 spare forwards and one spare defenceman, which is what would be the case under my post. It’s also rare for everyone to be healthy at the same time. Kozak would be sent to Rochester. Doubt he gets claimed, wouldn’t worry too much if he was. Chinakov is a very fast skater with a great shot who may or may not be a better scoring forward than Quinn or Kulich right now and may or may not be a better hockey player than about half the Sabres current forwards. The point of picking him is he may blossom into the guy who replaces Peterka, or at least force someone else to work to earn that spot.