dudacek

Power seems to have taken an interesting step this year. He's gotten better, but he's mostly gotten better at the things he was already good at, while making less obvious progress at the things he needed to improve most. I guess hockey is like politics, people get fixated on specific things to the exclusion of what should be a broad palette of considerations? It's weird to me that people who say things like 'Power can't clear the front of the net, he needs to sit' never say things like 'Dennis Gilbert can't make a breakout pass, he needs to sit' or 'Adam Fox can't clear the front of the net, he needs to sit'. Owen Power is among the best in the league at playing the point on offence, joining the rush, exiting the zone and making the stretch pass. He defends the rush pretty well, retrieves pucks pretty well, is OK at defending puck carriers one-on-one and pretty good at getting his stick into passing lanes. He often fails to adequately tie up his man off the puck, and is often guilty of making poor coverage decisions. His length/mobility combination is rare and allows him to be used in all situations against all types of opponents. He is a horse in terms of the amount of ice time he can handle without breaking down. He has a low panic threshold with the puck and sees the ice very well. He's had an increasingly positive role in an improving penalty kill. He tends to be inconsistent with some notably excellent and notably poor games. He literally has been the best in the league at creating offence 5-on-5 from the blueline. So many things he does well seem to get missed because of his lack of edge. The idea that a player who brings so many good elements needs to be sat in favour of a Bryson or Gilbert or Ryan Johnson is unfathomable to me.

What things are mostly likely to push in the opposite direction: The very solid recent goaltending of UPL? The abysmal production of "2nd liners" Cozens, Quinn, Benson and Kulich?? The fact that the remarkable 5-on-5 production of Byram and Power is kinda offsetting the abysmal production of the 2nd liners? The amount of times a defenceman will make a costly mistake? The incredible and criminally under-discussed numbers Rasmus Dahlin is putting up since he got healthy? (17 points in his past 13 games? Are you kidding me?) The play of the blueliners other than the big 3? The positive contributions of "3rd liners" McLeod Greenway, Zucker and Krebs? The thus-far inconsequential nature of the 4th line? The bounceback seasons from Tuch and Thompson, especially their two-way games, along with the eye-test dominance of the first line The improving special teams? Feels like we need more data

It’s odd the difference three games can make. Even three precarious games against less-than imposing opponents. I was kinda waiting for the 1/4 pole to cement my impressions of what this team is. At the 18-game mark I had pretty much written off these Sabres as last year’s team on repeat. Sure there were reasons for optimism; there always are if you squint. But the hard facts were this: this is team that clawed its way back to .500 three consecutive times, and three consecutive times it failed to push past that most ordinary of signposts; this was a team in desperate need of separating itself from the pack that in the course of a few weeks managed to fall to the Islanders, the Flyers, Detroit, Columbus, Pittsburgh and Montreal. These have been the hallmarks of the Kevyn Adams Sabres: the persistent refrain of not quite being able to get over the hump, of squandering opportunity after opportunity to turn the corner. California was different. Long road trip, three games in four nights, top scorer unavailable, top PKer unavailable, jacked arena saluting a legend, backup goalie making his first start, a parade of penalties, and — most consequentially — mediocre opponents: these are circumstances that inevitably seem to bite my team in the ass. But they didn’t. Not this week. The Sabres did not play particularly well in California, but they did something they have not usually been able to do in these types of situations at this time of the season: they gritted it out and found a way to win. The coach has been preaching from day one that this team needs to find ways to win when it doesn’t have its “A” game, preaching that this is the difference between the playoff teams and the also-rans.. Somehow, after a 1/4/1 start, these Sabres have reeled off a 10/5 run. That’s not an insignificant sample size. Over that stretch, they have the NHL’s 7th-best record, its 11th-best offence, its 11th-best defence, its 11th-best PP and its 6th-best PK. And that has vaulted them into 3rd place in the Atlantic. Is it a blip? Probably. We’ve certainly been conditioned to expect that it is. Every team gets hot once in a while, even Buffalo. The December schedule looks much tougher. The play of the 2nd line has been a major hole that needs to be mended. But progress has to start somewhere and winning games when they matter is something different. And it’s much better than the alternative. In a month this thread may be laughable. But the fact that it exists at this particular moment without actually being laughable…I guess that’s something.

Their top 3 are #6, 9 and 18 right now in NHL scoring among D — #1, 7, and 25 in ES scoring. Buffalo's 3rd-highest-scoring defenceman would be #1 on 21 teams. There's been a good amount of fancystat dumping around here on Byram's relative SA%. His actual SA% is a fraction over 50%, as is Power's. Dahlin is over 57% Their issues has been making the big mistake, especially Power, but that kind of offence from the backline is rare and something to build an identity around.

Sometimes it's OK to actually look at real goals for and against — the things that actually win hockey games. Byram is +9 for the season. He has 11 points, all of them at even strength — top 5 among all NHL D in even-strength points. Since Oct. 31 — roughly when he was elevated to the 1st pair, this is his stat line: Trust your eyes, like Lindy does. Can you imagine this D corps right now with Jokiharju and Samuelsson eating Byram's minutes? Byram was brought in to be a top 4 defenceman and so far he's delivered. Meanwhile Mittelstadt: 6/10/16/-11 has 8 points at even strength and wins 41.2% of his faceoffs McLeod: 5/6/11/+7 kills penalties and wins 52% of his faceoffs Way early to judge overall, but initial returns on Byram and McLeod for Mitts and Savoie have given the Sabres exactly what I hoped it would.

(Picks jaw up off the floor.)

Are you a Seinfeld fan?

Some more silly preseason Q&A, should you care to indulge: Name something you feel strongly is going to happen in the #Sabrehood this year? Tage Thompson will rebound nicely, to the tune of around 40 goals and a point per game. What is something you think a lot of Sabres fans will be surprised by? How effective this defence corps will be playing Lindy Ruff hockey What worries you most about the coming season? The possibility that UPL regresses hard and they wait too long to hand the reins over to Levi What are you most excited about? Watching Cozens/Quinn/Benson play hockey the way it is meant to be played And what hot take would you be willing to put money on this year? Rasmus Dahlin will be a Norris Trophy finalist

1) Sabres point total? 81 2) Will the Sabres makes the playoffs? No 3) Sabres leading goal scorer? Peterka 33 4) Sabres leader in total points? Dahlin 62 5) Sabres MVP? Dahlin 6) Sabres ROY? N/A No rookie will play more than 20 games 7) Best off-season acquisition Malenstyn won't score much, but he will be respected for his effort and hitting 8.) Worst off-season acquisition? Zucker will be in and out of the lineup and fail to score 15 goals 9) Biggest surprise? (positive or negative) Jack Quinn will fail to score 25 goals 10) Breakout player? Peterka. He and Benson will be the only player to post career numbers, though neither will be much higher than this year 11) Will any Sabres players or coaches finish as finalists (win?) for any major awards such as the Norris or Selke? No 12) Unsung Hero? Jokiharju will again lead the team in plus/minus, but will be traded to a playoff team at the deadline 13) Who will be the first Sabre traded away this season? Reimer will be claimed on waivers, if that counts 14) Will KA make any in-season acquisitions before the deadline? LOL 15) Will the Sabres be buyers or sellers at the deadline? Say goodbye to Greenway and Joker. Zucker won't get any takers 16) Other Bold prediction? {Such as KA gets fired mid-season ;)} Bo Byram requests a trade 17) Any other thoughts? Fat, unemployed bald men who live with their parents don't approach strange women

Sorry if this was already discussed and I missed it, but the Athletic is reporting Dylan Cozens came in to camp 12 pounds heavier this year. If he kept his speed, that’s got to help in the role he’s being asked to play. With the additions of Lafferty and McLeod, is there a team with more size and speed up the middle than Sabres? Not a rhetorical question: we know all 4 are over 6’2 and among the top 20 per cent of NHL skaters.

Craig Rivet says the Sabres should easily get 45 wins and with “a bit of swagger” could really take off. Stable goaltending, best defence corps in 15 years, loves the rebuilt bottom six and team speed, and thinks Lindy is exactly what these players need.

The Östlund take is interesting. From what I saw in the preseason, he does seem to be a better skater, passer and playmaker than Kulich.

Do you think that also means they are the 4 looming cuts to get to 23?

No, you’re right Dan. Jeff Skinner is the devil.

If I remember correctly, one was the breakthrough Carolina squad after they traded Skinner. Who was the other?

I can’t choose. Benson has most battle and hockey IQ and JJ the most raw skill. Quinn is a close 2nd in both categories. I will be shocked if all 3 don’t have long careers as at least top 6 wingers. Any of them can be more than that.

This I would tend to agree with.

Ah, I've found when people react unexpectedly it often is a result of poorly chosen words. In this case, the phrase I used was "with excellence", not "of excellence". Easy to read over, or misinterpret even if read correctly. i should have written "Johnson is the only departure who had any sort of track record of playing with excellent players on an excellent team."

I find this post as bizarre as @GASabresIUFAN's I looked at @mjd1001's list of players who left and came in and the first thing that I noticed was that most of the players coming in had experience with winning programs and most of the people who left didn't. I shared that, along with the suggestion that I kinda doubt it was meaningful. There's no argument being presented or data being skewed. It was a simple offhand reaction to the opening post. System? Skinner is better than Aube-Kubel? What the heck are you talking about?

Swayman must be losing sleep over that one.

The Athletic preview article in another thread says Tage made a dramatic improvement in his defensive analytics last year.

That piece sure seems to point fingers at last year’s coaching staff for breaking what didn’t need fixing while trying to fix what did.

The Sabres have never telegraphed their starting lineup as clearly as they have this season.

The PDO podcast has its “Our Guys” pod up, which is basically the guys Drance and Filopovic see as players of all levels who will be way better this year than the public perceives them to be. First up among the young players category is our favourite teenage carnie, Zachary Ruben Benson. Their verdict is much like many of ours: the size don’t matter, great skill and a capital D-O-G dog. They can’t picture a better fit for Lindy Ruff 2022/23 Devils style of hockey - they also like the other moves the Sabres made for exactly that reason - and are actually predicting stardom in his future. If listening to 2 well-informed out-of-market hockey nerds drool over a Sabre is your thing, a highly recommended listen.

I was referring to the six missing opening night players (Krebs (likely), Okposo, Zemgus, Mitts, Skinner, VO) in the opening post. So entirely accurate. 😘