dudacek

The philosophy demands internal growth in order to be successful. Last year, the rebuild elevated Dahlin and Thompson, resuscitated Okposo and Skinner, and added Samuelsson, Krebs, Asplund and Tuch as useful parts. For it to continue to be a success, we need it do most of the following: maintain Dahlin, Tuch, Thompson, Okposo and Skinner; elevate Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Olofsson and Cozens, and add Power, Quinn, Peterka, Lyubushkin and Comrie.

56 goals in 103 AHL games! If I knew that, I’d forgotten. I think Poltapov doesn’t backcheck like Varada did and also has some puck hog tendencies. He sure looks good 1-on-1 in traffic though, with and without the puck. He’ll carry guys on his back while making them want to punch him.

It should be noted that Poltapov also starts the play behind the net sacrificing his body on the cycle on the Neuchev highlight.

Really don’t think this board understands what kind of player Poltapov is. He forechecks and disrupts like Vaclav Varada, but also might have enough skill to play in a top 6.

Three considerations need to be added to this conversation: The first is (as I mentioned in the other thread) that the Sabres seem to prefer the USNDP development model of challenging young talent by “playing them up” while giving them both increased support and adversity through on-ice responsibility. Thompson on the 1st line, Cozens vs McDavid, Dahlin and Joki getting the hard minutes, Quinn and Peterka on the 1st line in the AHL in their D+2 seasons - the Sabres often work against the grain over conventional NHL thinking when it comes to development. The 2nd is they seem to want to work with their prospects in terms of giving them some autonomy in charting their own development path. Adams talks about it all the time. Kisakov is in North America largely because he wants to be in North America. Östlund was very clear about going back to Sweden. And the 3rd is the most obvious, but seems to be the most overlooked up-thread: just how good is Kulich right now? He stood out among his peers at development camp. But was he on a tier with Jack and JJ? With Weissbach and Rousek? There is no doubt in my mind that the Sabres would prefer to have hands-on control over Kulich with Appert and Peca in Rochester with all else being equal. I think the presence of Rousek and Pekar with the Amerks provides a rare opportunity to help him with the cultural transition. I’m not particularly worried about the physical aspect; he’s not small and he played all of last year against men. And he wants to be here. So to me, the only thing preventing him from being an Amerk is the state of his game. Is he good enough to play with the Brett Murrays and the Ethan Prows? Training camp should tell.

Incidental to the current story, but the best quote in the Athletic article came from Shields: Shields told the officer that none of his statements could have been reasonably interpreted as threatening or aggressive in nature and that “it is not in his nature to fight people, nor has it ever been.” Are we sure that it’s this Steve Shields? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm6L5tCoLyo

Not suggesting he personally did anything wrong, but Portillo actually benefited from Pearson’s toxic behaviour. The coach’s retaliation against Strauss Mann made Portillo the unquestioned starter. The fact that Portillo rejected a contract offer despite working in an environment where 1/3 of the players described the workplace situation as toxic tells me he had at least a peripheral awareness of the situation, but was not personally negatively affected. This report should not affect his status as a Ross School student or as Michigan’s starting goalie, even if it leads to Pearson being replaced. Therefore, I don’t see it affecting his status with the Sabres either. Thorough piece on the findings here for those with an Athletic subscription. https://theathletic.com/3468455/2022/08/02/mel-pearson-michigan/

One of the most interesting non-Sabres story lines of next year will be what Appert and Peca do with Rosen, as well as Kisakov and hopefully Kulich. Certainly the coaching approach is going to be 180 degrees from what Rosen got last year in Sweden.

I don’t think it is semantics to say Adams mistake was not that he didn’t re-sign Ullmark, it was that he believed he was going to re-sign Ullmark and did not have a back-up plan. The degree of damage caused by that mistake will be determined by the quality of play delivered this year by Comrie, Anderson and UPL.

“What has been fundamental is the creation of a safe environment where there’s a lot of adversity.” ”While there is no trading, no cutting and no waiving players, there are expectations and even elite prospects come up against a host of new challenges. The first year you come in and (you are playing in the NHL as a 20-year-old). It’s important to have that competitiveness and not to use it as an excuse.” ”It’s about what they do once they arrive, whether they seize the opportunity that’s put in front of them, that determines what happens.” Sound familiar? It’s not Donnie Granato or Seth Appert talking about the Sabres or their prospects. These are the guiding principles of the US National Development program - perhaps the best production factory for top NHL hockey players of the past decade. I was reading a profile on the USNDP and it turned into a light bulb moment: Granato and Appert have taken the principles of the program they used to run with 16 and 17 year olds in the USHL and applied them to NHLers on ELC contracts. Basically, the USNDP takes a collection of youthful, elite talents gives them a sense of team and trust and belonging and then pushes them out against older, better competition with no place to hide. It forces them to figure out how to compete and ultimately win by taking responsibility for their own development: facing and eventually overcoming challenges. The USNDP philosophy says you get that by playing late when you’re up or down a goal, and by lining up at the dot against the best players the other team has to offer. You don’t get it watching from the press box or by sitting at the end of the bench after making a bad pass. The Logan Cooleys and the Cole Caufields start with the USNDTP as overmatched kids and they end up as 1st-round draft picks. The Sabres are trying to create a similar crucible to turn 1st-round picks like Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson into NHL stars. The hope is the likes of Samuelsson, Krebs, and Quinn will also thrive under the same model. They’ve already met the challenge of being Amerks. Time to learn from the next challenge. And that is why we will see them this year instead of Klingberg or Kadri. Even if it means some delayed gratification. As far as the Kevyn Adams Sabres go, this is what draft and develop looks like.

This is what my eye test suggests as well, as much as I respect Taro’s eye test and acknowledge the underlying numbers support his point of view.

Contract slides in the AHL. Kulich weighed in at 178 at the combine. Peterka was listed at 192 last year, Quinn at 185.

It will be interesting to see where the Sabres go with Kulich this year given his apparently advanced development status. Continue to play with men in the Czech league where he can challenge himself to elevate to a top 6 role and develop his body and his confidence in a comfortable social environment while postponing his cultural and small-ice adjustment. Dominate his peers and pile up big numbers while getting used to North American culture and rinks in the Q. Risk being over his head in the AHL while getting hands-on teaching from the Sabres staff and cultural support from the Czech mafia of Rousek and Pekar. From what I’ve seen of Kulich’s personality and talent, I’m inclined to want him to be in Rochester. He seems to be mentally tough and I think the positive presence of Pekar and Rousek should not be overlooked. He’s just gotta show he’s ready to play a regular shift at that level.

Just to be clear, the list takes a players’ performance under a specific analytics model, projected based on recent trends over the lifetime of the contract. It’s not about how many points a player got last year versus how much he got paid. It’s about the term and the trend. It’s about how poorly a player is trending under Dom Luscycyn’s model versus how much he is going to get paid.

O’Reilly

Wing Skinner G33 P63 -14 * Bratt G26 P73 0 Okposo G21 P46 -15 * Palat G18 P49 +15 Tuch G12 P38 -3 * Sharangovich G24 P46 -14 Olofsson G20 P49 -16 * Tatar G15 P30 -22 Hinostroza G13 P25 -11 * Johnsson G13 P35 +4 Asplund G8 P27 -5 * Haula G18 P44 +19 Krebs G7 P22 -20 * Boqvist G10 P23 -9 Quinn G1 P2 -7 * Holtz G0 P2 -5 Peterka G0 P0 0 * Wood G0 P0 -2 Bjork G5 P8 -14 * Bastian G11 P16 -11

Centre Thompson G38 P68 -17 * Hughes G26 P56 -16 Mittelstadt G6 P19 -14 * Hischier G21 P60 -1 Cozens G13 P38 -19 * Mercer G17 P42 -25 Girgensons G10 P18, -7 * McLeod G6 P20 -16

Defence Dahlin 53P, -22 * Hamilton 30P, -19 Power 3P, +3 * Severson 46P, -14 Samuelsson 10P, -10 * Marino 25P, +1 Jokiharju 19P, -8 * Graves 28P, -9 Lyubushkin 15P, -2 * Seigenthaler 14P, -5 Bryson 10P, -9 * Smith 8P, +6

Goal: Comrie 10/5/1 2.58 .920 * Vanacek 20/12/6 2.67 .908 Anderson 17/12/2 3.12 .897 * Blackwood 9/10/4 3.39 .892 Lukkonnen 2/5/2 2.74 .917 * Daws 10/11/1 3.11 .893

Sabres don’t deserve *****, but @Taro T is right, nothing New Jersey has, or has done stands out as superior to the Sabres.

I get that he’s neither tough, nor a goal scorer, but I don’t think it’s right that Asplund tends to get lumped in with last year’s replaceable parts. Whatever line he’s on tends to get better. He gets love from the analytics guys, but I don’t think enough attention is paid to Asplund’s work ethic and his drive for self-improvement. He’s going to get better. And the kid put up 27 points in what was essentially his rookie season.

I think Shayne Wright went 4th because the 3 teams picking ahead of him all saw players available that they ranked higher. I think 3 factors weighed against Wright: 1. Growth. he was an early physical developer who dominated in part because of that when he was younger but whose dominance fell off as he aged and other kids caught up. He was not significantly better at 17 than he was at 15 and in the scouting world that matters. 2. Skill. The hype machine had most of us expecting franchise 1C skill but I didn’t see it. He didn’t have Lafontaine’s burst, Hawerchuk’s craftiness, Forsberg’s indomitable presence. He’s very good, smart and strong. But when I look at his physical gifts I see more O’Reilly than Eichel. 3. Character. You read a quote from Wright, he says the right things. But the more you watch him interact with people, the more you get the sense he is reading from a script. Im not saying he’s Evander Kane-style trouble, but I get the sense he is more calculated Hockey Canada media creation covering stereotypical entitled hockey star douchiness than the mainstream narrative let on, and it made organizations hesitant to invest.

From Scott Wheeler’s latest ranking of the top prospects outside the NHL (Owen Power topped the list): 9. Matt Savoie, C/RW, 18 (Buffalo Sabres — No. 9, 2022) Savoie’s game has the potential to thrill as much as any player’s on this list. Inside the offensive zone, he’s strong. He’s got extremely quick side-to-side hands that help him beat defenders one-on-one off of cuts. He’s got an NHL shot (which he can place with pinpoint accuracy from a bad angle and rip by a goalie clean from a distance, but he also loves to change up and slide five-hole). He does an excellent job creating plays to the slot out of traffic. He’s a burning skater with explosiveness and quick three-step acceleration that allows him to win races, separate in transition, and put defenders onto their heels, or dash through holes in coverage to the net (or draw a penalty). He’s a soft small-area passer who blends deception into his movements. And then on top of those things, he’s got a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He’s always engaged, he keeps his feet moving, he plays with a ton of energy, and he finishes all of his checks and knocks his fair share of players over despite being on the smaller side. He’s also sturdier on his feet than his listed height might suggest, which helps him play between checks. I see a dynamic, high-tempo, top-six, goal-creating package. He’s an exciting talent, with clear PP1 upside due to his shooting/skill package and clear five-on-five upside because of his skating and motor. Even in games where the points don’t fall, he’s almost always dangerous and threatening on the ice — and he’s seldom going to leave you wanting more. Because of the way he plays, I fully expect him to stick at his natural centre position in the NHL, too. His speed might even make him a useful penalty killer to give him all-situations value as well

The flaw in this argument is that it's built on the mistaken premise that we've been buying for all 11 of of those years, or that the reasons to buy haven't changed.

This is one of those deals we've been hoping the Sabres would able to make happen: https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/news/cbj-acquire-draft-picks-from-seattle-in-exchange-for-oliver-bjorkstrand/c-335069258 27 years old, 28 goals, reasonable contract...