dudacek

Byram’s agent is maximizing his clients earnings under the system. The Sabres are maximizing the value of the asset this year, which I thought was what you want. It means they get a motivated Byram for at least one year, maybe two, while keeping the door open for a trade. The alternatives are taking a trade they see as not improving the team, taking picks, or letting this drag into training camp,

It gives the Sabres added leverage in the sense that removes the offer sheet. But that leverage is moot if Byram was always fine with a short deal anyway, and in fact had fully expected the Sabres to go there if a trade couldn’t be made. They probably think they’ll get more in a hearing than by negotiating. Really what this gives the Sabres is a deadline for certainty in terms of doing other business and for leveraging a trade.

The question now becomes comparables and what we can expect him to get for a contract. Without doing actual research, I would expect something between $7M and 9M, leaving the Sabres with $4-6M to improve their team, should they choose to spend it.

If they actually go to arbitration, it wil mean if two things: Byram chooses one year and next summer puts himself into the same position Reinhart did to force a trade with significantly more leverage than he had this summer. Or he chooses a 2-year reward and marches himself directly to UFA.

This gives the Sabres assurance they will have Byram under contract by mid-August, protects them from an offer sheet, and still means they can trade him if they wish. It also means they aren’t close to a contract or a trade, and probably arenkt expecting Byram to sign with them for term.

Yep. The hype ain't there because of the Buffalo stink. But in my opinion Dahlin was — at worst — the number 4 D in hockey last year when you look at all the measurables. It's really a shame they've failed to build around that. It's Eichel all over again.

That makes sense if your primary goal is to move the player, or lock him up long-term. Kevyn Adams is hanging on to his job by his fingernails and hasn't found a Byram trade that he thinks makes the team better in 2 months of trying. There's incentive for him to lock Byram in to arbitration, back fill behind him with whatever cap is left over and try make the playoffs, especially if Byram has made it clear he's not signing a long-term deal with Buffalo. If he's wrong, the poison pill will be something for the next GM to deal with. Not filing for arbitration tells me Kev still thinks he can make a trade, or sign Byram to term.

He can choose one-year term and repeat this process next year with significantly more leverage. Or 2-year and walk directly to UFA

Good stuff. I wouldn’t expect Power to be playing 17 minutes a night. That set-up,is more of a base. On Lindy’s good New Jersey team, they kinda ran 5 guys at 20 minutes and the 6th guy at 12. i think the Sabres would be something like Dahlin 24, Byram Power 22, Kesselring 18, Samuelsson 16 Timmons 14.

Friedman this morning says the Byram noise is not really about him getting traded as much as it is about him getting paid. Said Peterka wanted out, that’s not necessarily the case with Byram and the market for Byram is kinda soft. Also said, as I alluded to upthread, the agent likes to take his clients to unrestricted free agency. Does nothing but reinforce my sense that he’s staying in Buffalo on a short-term deal. Really interested in seeing if the Sabres force that by taking him to arbitration because I don’t think Bo would mind that at all.

Stumbled on an interesting fact while looking up my above post. Remembering the much-vaunted Malenstyn-Lafferty-Aube-Kubel 4th line that got so much hype last summer and busted? Apparently it never actually went bust. In the 7 games it played together it had a 68.4% expected goals. Apparently that wasn’t working for Lindy.

Curious how much of that included Benson on the line? In terms of Corsi, Benson was part of 5 of the Sabres top 7 lines, and 7 of the top 10. None of those included Kulich, but a lot of them were very small sample sizes. Benson also seems to do well in terms of expected goals with most linemates and the other guy that does that is Thompson. So I’m wondering how much of the Kulich/Thompson success is about Kulich.

I wonder if Lindy is going to roll the clock back to 1999 and deploy: Byram Dahlin like he did Zhitnik Smehlik Samuelsson Kesselring like Warrener McKee Power Timmins like Woolley Shannon Keep in mind they behave as if they like Timmins and Samuelsson more than we do. Adams mentioned putting Byram with Dahlin and “you can have a different pair of bigger shutdown guys”. Adams also talked earlier about wanting a guy for Power who was “safe with a lot of clean puck touches”. To me that sounds a lot more like Timmins than it does Kesselring. Probably guilty of overthinking things, but it’s something that crossed my mind.

I think you are wise to point out that Kesselring isn't exactly a shutdown D; I've fallen into that trap myself as recently as a few posts up. I think he's better described as a very large, competitive, mobile late-blooming defenceman who is better than average on both sides of the puck and just coming into his own as an NHL player. Speaking strictly for myself, I noticed him without looking for him when he played: he was assertive and effective and enormous. He looked pretty physical to me, not running around looking to kill guys physical, but winning battles physical, clearing the crease physical and smartly finishing checks physical. And I think he fought 5 times last year. That aspect of his game looks nothing like Power. He covers a lot of ground and has a huge wingspan. Scouting reports from those who have watched him more often – fans and pros — seem to match my eye test, and the analytics numbers and counting stats are both solid. Not entirely part of my point, but as an aside, I'm not as sold as everyone else seems to be that he's going to be Power's partner.

Kadri would be an excellent fit to this roster. I think Byram is a more valuable asset in a vacuum and I think a one-for-one is just filling one hole by opening another. In conjunction with another complementary move though, it’s well worth exploring.

I already gave my feelings about the Sabres off-season as a whole - that at best they’ve maintained themselves as a 79-point team. These are my opinions individually on their moves so far: Signing Jones: I guess I like it on some Intellectual level - you can’t have too many defencemen - but honestly I don’t care much who the stopgap 8 is. Maybe he still has some untapped upside, but really I don’t see this player ever being more than a tweener. Especially as an offensive puckmover on a team that doesn’t really need any right now. Signing Lyon: This was a solid move. In a market bereft of goalie talent, adding a guy capable of hot streaks and of being a tandem starter for back-up money felt like a bit of a coup. He’s nothing special, but he’s competition that is capable of actually being competition and better than what I thought would happen. Re-signing McLeod: I expect some regression from McLeod, but this is a good contract for a good 40-point 3C, especially with the rising cap, and he could give you more. Glad they’ve locked him up for his best years. Signing Danforth: I like the player and I also like that we added the type of player in terms of both his work ethic on the ice and his underdog mentality off it. He’s a go-to-the-net forechecker on a team that needs more of that. Maybe we’ll get the 4th line right this time. Trading Lafferty for a late pick: I think he’s a better player than we saw, but he was completely useless last year and clearly wasn’t Ruff’s kinda guy. Just clearing the salary and the roster spot was a win. Signing Geertsen: guy sounds like a total plug on the ice and I don’t care. Glad that he’s available the next time we need someone with that specific set of skills. Re-signing Johnson and Kozak: good, no-risk moves as far as I can see. Great value if they make the NHL, no damage if they don’t. Not qualifying Bernard-Docker: He’s probably not as good as he played down the stretch and I understand the logic in how Adams explained it. I’d shrug my shoulders if I thought they were going to spend to the cap. But they won’t and you can’t have enough defencemen. Pennywise and pound-foolish. Re-signing Quinn: The dollar value was a little high for 2 years and I might have pushed for a 1-year prove-it deal, but there’s a chance this could be a home run if Jack plays to his potential. With Cozens and Peterka already out the door, he’s the last best hope for a skilled scorer in the system. He’s got a lot to prove. Trading Clifton and a 2nd for Conor Timmins: I almost drove off the road when the friend I was with read it to me off his phone. My immediate reaction was “we traded one ***** defenceman for another ***** defenceman and we gave them our 2nd pick? WTF?” I now understand the cap and analytic reasons why this trade was made. I still won’t like it until I see Timmons play significantly better than Clifton did and I see the Sabres put the cap savings to good use. If somebody took Lafferty for free, why not Clifton? Why not use the 2nd to trade for someone better than Timmons? I still hate this trade. Trading Peterka for Kesselring and Doan: I’ve warmed to this one after an immediate reaction of “that’s it?” Trading skill with the puck for effectiveness without it was my goal for the summer. Using Peterka as the best way to make it impactful was my strategy. I’m willing to gamble on the concept of what we got over the concept of what we gave up because it was the type of trade we needed. It becomes a clear win if they use the reality of the extra cap space, but I’m not confident they will. What they haven’t done: I wanted them to move skill for will and add a goalie, which they’ve done in some form. I also wanted them to reshape the D-core by moving on from Clifton and Samuelsson and keeping Byram. One yes, one no, one work in progress. Instead, they moved on from Clifton and JBD, kept Mule and got their shutdown RHD at an unexpectedly cheap salary. And finally I wanted them to move some futures for some immediate help. They’re still set up to do exactly that once the Byram situation plays out. It will be incredibly frustrating if they don’t use all the resources at their disposal to make that happen. But it’s what they’ve taught us to expect.

That’s what some people concluded at the time because they wanted to believe Cozens and Norris had equal value and that made them feel better about the trade. Subsequent events have shown Gilbert and JBD were inconsequential filler and the trade was basically Cozens and a 2nd for Norris. Reports out of Vancouver indicate the Sabres added the 2nd to outbid the Canucks who were aggressively targeting Norris. Those same reports also indicate that the 2nd may have not been necessary because the Sens liked Cozens better than any of the individual pieces in the Vancouver offer. Again, none of this suggests Adams made good decisions in the Norris trade, the Timmons trade, or the JBD qualifier. Just helping you point your wrath in the proper direction.

Not sure why it’s easier to believe Adams is too stupid to know the the rules than it is to believe he’s too stupid to judge the difference between Timmins and JBD. I’m not aware of other examples of him screwing up the rules, but I’ve seen plenty of bad player evaluations. This is right in line with “Clifton is worth $10M over 3 years, and Beck Malenstyn is worth pick #43. As others have said, few of those who elect arbitration ever get there; they usually select it to force the other side to get serious about negotiations, so they can avoid it.

Can he still sign an offer sheet after the Sabres choose arbitration? Because I wonder if his camp is actually angling Adams towards arbitration deliberately because they aren’t getting an offer sheet. Bear with me: the goal of Byram’s camp is to get him a high-dollar long-term deal in a place of Bo’s choosing where he can be “the guy”. Plan A Tell the Sabres you aren’t signing a long term deal and try to orchestrate a deal that matches the above goal. For now, that still includes the possibility of an offer sheet and the risk the Sabres will match. Plan B Failing that, manipulate the Sabres into paying Bo maximum cash for minimum term that either walks him directly into unrestricted free agency 2 years from now, or puts him in the driver’s seat for arranging a trade next summer to the team of his choice, like Matthew Tkachuk. Having the Sabres file for arbitration now does exactly that.

Byram’s decision means he still sees a path to a trade and/or a more favourable contract this summer that arbitration may have closed. What I’m not clear about is whether or not he can still sign an offer sheet if the Sabres elect arbitration. If he can’t, then I’d think the Sabres would want to go that route, meaning they’ve got him locked up next year while still being able to trade him if they wish.

I don’t see this as the “gotcha Adams!” some people seem to. Are people surprised Timmins filed for arbitration? Do people think Adams is caught off guard Timmins filed for arbitration? They walked away from JBD because they did not want to pay him what they think he might get in arbitration. They acquired Timmins because they’re probably willing to pay what he might get in arbitration in the context of dumping Clifton’s salary. Timmins didn’t file for arbitration because he doesn’t want to be in Buffalo, he filed for arbitration because it increases his leverage negotiating how much he gets paid in Buffalo. It’s about player evaluation and the business of hockey. The choices may end up working out the way they foresee, or they may not. But there’s no surprises here.

Did not realize this. Do we know if the Sabres face the same deadline to take Bo to arbitration? And does that also remove the threat of an offer sheet?

Personally, I don’t think Adams “wants” to trade Byram. I think he is legitimately open to the idea - mostly because Bo is not signing for term - but he has a year before he has to cross that bridge and isn’t going to pull the trigger if he doesn’t like the offers. I wouldn’t call all this smoke a charade, more like an attempt to move the player at the “right” price. ”Just sign him then” isn’t that simple because that takes two and it’s not what Byram prefers. At some point a deal will be made, or other GMs will get tired of talking. If it gets to the latter, Adams will tell Byram’s camp that it’s time to talk contact, one side will file for arbitration and Byram will officially become a Sabre again some time in August. Then, Adams may or may not pull the trigger on whatever may be left on the trade market with his leftover cap space. Not expecting to be whelmed, let alone overwhelmed, but to answer the thread question, I kinda expect Byram on the roster and one more “meh” forward add.

Other fancy stats from Lyon last year: Goals saved above expected: 32 Save % above expected: 32 Wins above replacement: 32 Rebounds per save: 37 Lyon’s totals with the Wings were exceedingly average and don’t appear to be significantly different from James Reimer’s with the Sabres. But they were clearly better than UPL’s.

UPL’s struggles in high danger situations aren’t new. Going back to the previous season - when he ranked 17th in goals saved above expected - he was still 58th in high-danger situations. The stats show he can succeed behind a better defence, but he has not shown that he can be counted on for too many big saves. Interestingly enough, the number 6 and 7 ranked goalies in high danger save % above expected that year were Alex Lyon and Devon Levi. Lyon was 4th and Levi unranked in that stat this year.