dudacek

Greenway?

Maybe you have a better handle on it than me, but I’m kinda looking at Byram 8 Timmins 2 as a worst-case scenario. Once I read that injuries can be used as evidence in the hearing, that popped a pretty big hole in either arbitration case for me. And we’re talking guys with career highs of 39 and 15 points. Now that may change if either signs for term. Do you see that as a possibility with Byram?

There is not a lot of things to feel good about right now as a Sabres fan. Could this be one? Power 6’6 226 Kesselring 6’5 215 Samuelsson 6’4 227 Timmins 6’3 213 Dahlin 6’3 204 Byram 6’1 205 These guys range from pretty good to elite in their skating ability. No one is small. No one is slow. Five of them had enough skill to be picked in the top 32 picks of the NHL draft, 3 were the first defencemen taken, 1 is a top 4 defenceman in the league and the best to ever wear blue and gold. All of them are young enough to say that their best hockey is ahead of them. All of them are old enough to say that they’ve been around the block a few times. They’ve got balance and flexibility in terms of where they slot, utility and skill sets. They all have reasons to be highly motivated. On paper, the pieces seem to fit. It’s been so long since we’ve had a good defence corps I probably forget what one looks like. But can this be it? Can we actually have something good? Or are Lindy Ruff and Marty Wilford going to drive these guys into Lake Erie?

I will be surprised if he’s traded. I think the Sabres have chosen this path because they’ve seen the offers and they are legitimately not interested in them. If teams weren’t willing to up their offers before, this process isn’t likely to change their minds. I just hope Buffalo is legitimately keeping him because he’s their best chance to win, and they still intend to pull the trigger on another forward.

Then you can go with a more traditional PP2: Power flanked by Norris and Quinn, with Tuch and Zucker in the bumper and down low.

I called for it last summer. Old school PP with Bo and Ras cycling in and out of the mid-point and sneaking down low, Tage and Kulich rotating behind them firing from distance, probably Bennie down low going to the net, retrieving pucks and making plays. It will be different than what most PKs are used to.

For me, it’s all about the spend after Byram. Realistically, they are going to have enough money to acquire a player after he’s signed, and probably enough to acquire a good player. It’s going to be closer to $5 or $6M than $2 or $3M. I’m skeptical they are going to use that money. I think they will say the market dried up or the prices were too high, when the fact of the matter is they let the market dry up and they decided the prices were too high. Once again, unrealized opportunity. I hope I’m wrong.

Byram’s goal appears to be getting the big ticket and I imagine has been a big factor in the talks. You’ve got that added variable meaning 3 parties have to be satisfied instead of the usually 2. No. Matt Tkachuk was traded 4 days after the Flames took him to arbitration. Byram can no longer sign an offer sheet; the Sabres cannot take him to arbitration again. Not aware of any other restrictions. Next summer Byram will have more control and leverage in the sense that he can sign a 1-year offer sheet. If the Sabres match, they cannot trade him. Their choices are trading him before July 1 (where he can largely dictate the spot) re-signing him, or taking the picks. Which is why I think Byram will take one year if it gets to that point. In the meantime, Byram’s play this year will also largely affect how much teams are willing to pay. He should be highly motivated

With Byram I think it’s about getting paid. We talk about him wanting the opportunity of being on a top PP, but not about the reason why he wants to be on a top PP: defencemen need points to get paid and they don’t get points away from power play. Switch Byram out for Evan Bouchard the past few years and tell me which one is likelier to be making $10M

This is an excellent post, but I’m not with you on the bold. This is the year the Florida Panthers won their 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup. Guys like Matthew Tkachuk set a tone and drag their teammates into the fight.

I'm curious how they staff the 1st PP this year? Do they go status quo and just plug Kulich into JJ's slot? It's his natural role and he has a history of being very good there. Another unwrapped option is Norris, who also has a history of being very good on the PP, but from the Thompson position. I think one of the issues is the lack of a pure passer and/or playmaker other than Dahlin. And with Ras kinda anchored at the top, who is breaking down the box with motion and misdirection? Who is sneaking down from the top? I've seen Byram and Power have success at doing the above and wouldn't mind their skills being better utilized on the PP. Teams moved away from 2D on the PP basically to get their best offensive talent on the ice. I think you could make a very good case that Byram and Power are among our five most talented players. Maybe they should explore using those skills. What do they have to lose?

What I found particularly frustrating last year was their failure to lean into their strength: Thompson. The year before they failed because Thompson was their only weapon and they didn't try anything else. Last year they overcompensated and went out of their way to avoid Tage. Find a happy medium.

I don't see any lead dogs on the roster, which I think is the chief problem in this area. Guys I see who probably would run with the pack if we had it: Dahlin, Kesselring, Thompson, Tuch, Zucker, Greenway, Danforth, Malenstyn, Doan, Krebs, Benson (edited to add) Not sure how many more of those guys are necessary to create some sort of a critical mass when we don't have a pack leader. Adding a pack leader sure would help.

Don’t think that has changed. I also think that if the Sabres thought the were going to be able to have him for more than 2 years this whole scenario probably wouldn’t be happening. I think this scenario was the 2nd choice for both Adams and Ferris. If Ferris couldn’t get a big-money long-term deal now, he’ll take a quick path to UFA. And if Adams couldn’t get a reasonable extension with term, he’ll take contract certainty without term.

Is it just me, or did very few teams get obviously better this off-season around us in the eastern conference? Montreal added two good pieces without losing anyone of importance off their roster but I’m not sure how many teams can say that. Bruins got some role players but failed to address their lack of scoring Columbus was role players in role players out Maybe Gibson is an upgrade for Detroit, but he hasn’t been good the past few years. Islanders lost Dobson Jersey was around the edges Gavrikov is an upgrade on Miller probably for the Rangers, but not huge The Senators added depth guys Zegras and Dvorak help the Flyers but I’m not sure Vladar will patch their gaping hole in net Penguins were quiet Lightning were quiet It feels like a shallow free agent market and a lack of sellers made for a pretty stagnant off-season. Barring more trades, it looks like any big leaps or drops are going to come from coaching, chemistry and internal growth/regression.

Recent contracts by defencemen that might be relevant: Chychrun 9 Miller 7.5 Romanov 6.2 Lohrei 3.2 Seider 8.5 Power 8.3 Hronek 7.2 Toews 7.2 Durzi 6 Sandin 4.6 Byram’s counting stats are unremarkable in that context. Most of his analytics mediocre and he has an injury history, which are elements in the Sabres favour. His ice time and his Stanley cup ring and his even strength numbers and some of his analytics work in his favour. First glance, I’m betting this comes in at between $7 and $7.5M? I’ve always though Hronek was an excellent comparable.

Great article for those who can read the Athletic about how arbitration works: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3487717/2022/08/09/nhl-arbitration/ Both sides can continue negotiating right up until the hearing begins Any offers made during the negotiations cannot be used in the hearing. Each side enters the hearing with a number and their reasons supporting that number. Only certain evidence is allowed to be used in those arguments, including games played (or time missed due to injuries), tenure with a team or in the league, statistics to define performance, leadership qualities, and comparable player compensation (only from other restricted free agents). Each side will have received the other sides case prior to arbitration The judge will decide what’s fair based on the arguments and make a ruling within 48 hours.

I like Byram, I like the look of the defence right now, and see this getting us closer to adding a Rust or someone similar while keeping that D. So I like it in that context. I just wish I was more confident they will be able to make that moves if they want to. If you look at all the excess cap space around the league, there will be a lot of teams looking for Rakells and the price will be high.

Yep. Left after my post and didn’t pick up this thread and see your follow-up until now. Short version: it’s not the arb decision itself pissing you off, it’s the mounting evidence that this is turning into a squandered opportunity to make the team better? Absolutely fair, if so, particularly in the context of your low opinion of Byram.

Just making sure I’m clear, you’re saying Adams should take the best trade offer that’s on the table right now instead of trying to use the arbitration deadline to set up a pressure point in an attempt to squeeze out something better. This not about Adams, it’s about what you think is the proper course of action.

Byram’s agent is maximizing his clients earnings under the system. The Sabres are maximizing the value of the asset this year, which I thought was what you want. It means they get a motivated Byram for at least one year, maybe two, while keeping the door open for a trade. The alternatives are taking a trade they see as not improving the team, taking picks, or letting this drag into training camp,

It gives the Sabres added leverage in the sense that removes the offer sheet. But that leverage is moot if Byram was always fine with a short deal anyway, and in fact had fully expected the Sabres to go there if a trade couldn’t be made. They probably think they’ll get more in a hearing than by negotiating. Really what this gives the Sabres is a deadline for certainty in terms of doing other business and for leveraging a trade.

The question now becomes comparables and what we can expect him to get for a contract. Without doing actual research, I would expect something between $7M and 9M, leaving the Sabres with $4-6M to improve their team, should they choose to spend it.

If they actually go to arbitration, it wil mean if two things: Byram chooses one year and next summer puts himself into the same position Reinhart did to force a trade with significantly more leverage than he had this summer. Or he chooses a 2-year reward and marches himself directly to UFA.

This gives the Sabres assurance they will have Byram under contract by mid-August, protects them from an offer sheet, and still means they can trade him if they wish. It also means they aren’t close to a contract or a trade, and probably arenkt expecting Byram to sign with them for term.