...

So, I think of the games played, "luck" played the largest role in this game: Buffalo was "lucky" to win this one because the Panthers were out-playing them, statistically. You can also draw up the Pittsburgh game and, by looking at it, assume the Sabres were playing above their potential, but if factor in Pittsburgh's performance, you have to describe it (if you're fair) as they playing below their potential. Both being the case, then, it would be reasonable to conclude that, of course, the Sabres were likely to win that game.

Evolving Hockey has screwed everything up by going pay for their charts.

The challenge I'm having here, intellectually, is how "sustain" and its variants are being used. I'm not leaning into you, @Sakman, just having a conversation, so hopefully you dig that and don't get (too) riled, but obviously the PDO and SV% will regress, and so, obviously the numbers today are not sustainable over the course of a regular season. Tampa Bay did not sustain numbers like that last season, and their regular season last year I would consider a modern benchmark for elite performance. This is fundamental, though, to statistics. The word "sustainable" in this instance, I would argue, implies that the level of play, or the caliber of the Sabres' game, would drop as well. In other words, by using the word "sustainable" (and I did it myself sometime around game 3), we're invoking the notion that @dudacek and @That Aud Smell explore above - that the Sabres are experiencing outcomes that exceed what they're putting into the games. Last year it was obvious to the eye and there were some metrics that told a dire story of impending reality. This year, there really isn't anything whacky about the metrics other than they're based on such a small sample size. Unless you measure player performance individually against last year (and, thus, in a near-vacuum), the better results and the causality of those results are in relative alignment. But if you do want to measure player performance individually, you can't ignore the facts that Vlad, at more than one point in his career, was perfectly capable of registering numbers that befit his role now (albeit on the low side for a higher performing team), and that someone like KO and, egad, Sheary, have been able to hang with the level the team is playing at now. PDO and SV% are the type of stats that, as they go down, might make someone believe the Sabres are regressing in play (and therefore their level of play is "unsustainable") when in reality the numbers are adjusting to the sample size. Of course they're going to lose a game, but that doesn't mean the higher level of play suffers over the long term. I guess I'm wary of suggesting that this is a blip along the season (which it is, but...) and that bad things are coming. Not that I've dug into every hole there is or looked at each player's numerous charts, but the ones I have dug into look "sustainable" over a long period, and I simply can't buy that PDO and SV% this early in the season mean anything relative to how they're generating those numbers.

There were 16 teams last year with a PDO over 1 during the regular season. Through 12/31/18, 3 teams had a PDO over 1.030 and TB ended the season with a 1.022. 5 teams ended with a PP over 24%. Obviously, the Sabres' metrics throughout the season will regress, but that is expected with a larger sample size. Neither of these metrics are strong indicators that the current play is "unsustainable".

Maybe he doesn't drink the espresso?

Can't be that far off, why bring him?

I haven't seen anything to validate this claim this time around. What numbers are you looking at?

I still don't know what you folks see in that guy. Especially now. I think he's trade bait.

It's so early, but what if Botterill has hit his stride with the team? I feel dirty asking that question right now, however, if...I say IF...things continue on this trend, this team could be set up now for the next near decade. Wouldn't it be nice to buy into that.

You're not understanding how RK does things. He's not whispering into Vlad's ear making him believe something. RK is using players correctly. Vlad can hang in the role RK has deployed him in because it's a part of Vlad's game. The NHL defensive game, so far, was weak for Tage, so RK will not deploy Tage into a role where Tage's first priority is to be defensively responsible.

I think Tage will come up when a winger is injured or consistently shows they are no longer contributing to the team's ability to win. But, say, if it's Vlad who is injured, Vesey will get Vlad's spot and Tage will fill in for Vesey. The key to that second line isn't Vlad, it's Johansson. He's not a natural center, and RK has said explicitly that Vlad is there to fill in the defensive gaps Marcus might have. Otherwise, they will do what they can to keep MJ and Skinner together. The other winger needs to be defensive first, a net-neutral force offensively at least, and, ideally, a third offensive threat (which Vlad ain't). So, if we're trading to upgrade a player, it's going to have to be a good return to either replace Vlad and his current role, or move Vlad off that line, install a real center, and move MJ to what was effectively Vlad's role. This is why I bolded the above, the current state of the Sabres makes things less black and white. Victor has solved the problem of the first line. And, of course, that fourth line isn't getting broken up. Our D is covered. If things continue as they are, Botterill has options and can definitely get creative in making the roster better. Tage and Cozens give Botterill flexibility. Tage is likely projected to be a third or second line winger. Cozens will be a third or second line center. With those two in the system, and Vlad "working out", Botterill might instead opt to go after a high-end prospect who can roll into the team in a season or two, after the Vesey/Vlad/Sheary-type contracts expire.

If he's moved off that line it's not going to be by Tage. Thompson is not the offensively-minded winger/center they're looking for per RK. Vlad's defensive game is what keeps him on that line now.

Dahlin is #13 in points league-wide. I know it's early, but, if this continues...

Look where KO is shooting from. If he keeps it up he's going to get 20 goals.

Where can I find better shot quality/shooting location charts?

As @PerreaultForever said, it was a textbook win from a high-caliber team. You couldn't ask for a better period from any team. If you're going to watch the full game replay on MSG, skip the first, watch the second and third.

Good post. Totally agreed on all points...at least for a game 6 assessment. We have to wait and see what these guys are like month to month. And as @pi2000 noted, we haven't seen the top-tier teams yet. So, with those qualifiers submitted, this isn't the same team who went 10-in-a-row last season. IMHO, this is a significantly better team. Calm, position-ally sound, responsible with their goalie, taking pucks to the high-danger areas. It's stunning a lot of these guys are the same. If this continues, RK will definitely be leading the coach-of-the-year race, and, frankly, Botterill should get some type of award. Do we really have a GM who knows what his team needs from coaching on down? Does Botterill really get the X-factor of team chemistry and other intangibles, and able to mix them with a keen reading of player metrics? Which one of these things would you drop if it meant we could have the remainders?

I think so, from what I've seen. Looks like they were deployed more frequently and seemed relatively steady when I could catch glimpses.

Third period = All Alamo, all the time! I remember y'all were arguing.

They were buzzing like blue and gold bees at the beginning and end of that period.

They can only just ice it. Stunning.

Nice! Samson needed another goal. Victor with another point. Great period, wish I could focus on it more!

Can we get a shorty? Please?

Ol' Ben has been snapped.