Doan > Peterka?

[Pimlach]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I thought with Doan, we were getting a grinder who was a third or fourth line type of player. However, his offensive instincts and production have surprised me. If he was inserted on the first or second line now, I would not automatically say that he was miscast for those upper line roles, although I would still categorize him as a third-line type of player. I'm not going to say that he is better than JJP but what I can comfortably say that he is a more well-rounded player. What makes his value more noticeable is that he excels in areas in which this team was glaringly deficient, such as net presence, a physical style of play and more responsible play in the defensive zone. There has been a lot of discussion here about roster construction. From that standpoint alone, he was a good addition. 

They are different players.   

So far Peterka and Doan's scoring production has been almost even, Peterka has 9 G and 16 points (+2),  all at even strength.  Doan has 7G, 15 points (-3), which includes 2 PPG and 4 PP points.  In the Utah games that I saw JJP does not play PP1, and  gets limited PP2 minutes.  

I have not seen any actual evidence that Doan is better in the defensive zone than Peterka is right now in Utah - I am sure someone can pull fancy stats comparing the two. I would like to see that.  

Doan's offensive game is to hound pucks and get to the net for the greasy goals, something the Sabre's really needed.  My eyes tell me that Doan has a physical component to his game and hustles to get back on defense, something JJP  did not consistently show.  

Peterka's offensive game is fast-break skating and a sniper shot, skills that several other Sabre players possess.  

The Sabres can use a guy like Doan.  Factor in Kesselring and this is shaping up to be a good trade right now.  

In addition, we just saw that Rosen and Östlund are emerging and they are more similar in style to JJP  than to Doan, so in the name of balanced roster construction Doan is a guy we need.  

[mjd1001]

30 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

They are different players.   

I have not seen any actual evidence that Doan is better in the defensive zone than Peterka is right now in Utah - I am sure someone can pull fancy stats comparing the two. I would like to see that.  

 

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

He plays the Rheinhart role for them on the PP...the in front of the net/screen the goalie guy.

It seems Zucker takes more of that role.  

IMHO Doan is in more of the Darcy Tucker role the Loafs used to use.  Win puck battles for loose pucks low and go to the back door for tap ins.

[Pimlach]

33 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

Interesting data and your analysis of it was very helpful.

This is a multi Cup Post!

 

[EM88]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't put too much into this, but this is the best I can find (keep in mind the numbers might actually under-estimate Doan because he gets so many more defensive zone starts than Peterka does.) Doan only gets about 45% offensive zone starts, and then the Sabres lose the faceoff (lose possession) almost 54% of the time.  Peterka gets 68.2% offensive zone starts, and his team wins those offensive zone faceoffs 62% of the time.

Doan has 63 defensive zone starts, JJP only has 28 defensive zone starts (all this even strength)

So here goes:

When Doan is on the ice:  127 scoring chances allowed.  54 high danger chances allowed. 15.9 expected goals allowed.

When JJP is on the ice:  143 scoring chances allowed.  62 high danger chances allowed. 15.7 expected goals allowed.

That expected goal number would likely be a LOT higher for Peterka and lower for Doan (allong with the rest of the numbers) if JJP wouldn't be sheilded so much from defensive zone starts.

Their ice time per game is very close, and seeing how Doan is on the ice starting in the Defensive zone a lot more and the other team has possession of the puck off of faceoffs more, I'd say those numbers say Doan (and of course, his linemates) are performing positionally in the defensive zone better than JJP (and his linemates.)

This might be the most critical stat favoring Doan over JJP:

Despite the lopsided zone starts (offensive vs Defensive) where Doan starts in the defensive zone and JJP doesn't that much....total time on ice Doan has only 33.7% of his time in the defensive zone, while JJP has 40.9% of his time in the defensive zone.

The goalies JJP is playing in front also have about a 1.5% better save percentage than what Doan has behind him.

The fact that Doan starts in the defensive zone so much more, yet has less defensive zone ice time can only lead me to think he helps a LOT more with getting the puck out of the defensive zone (and keeping it out) than JJP does.  

When taken into context together, most of the fancy stat numbers through 22 games point to Doan being much better in defensive zone coverage and helping exit the puck from the defensive zone than JJP.

 

 

 

It is very early. Doan has only played 22 games for the Sabres, and has yet to play a full season for his career.

With that said it might not be too far off-base to say that the Sabres traded away the more 'skilled player', but thus far have received back an equal 'hockey player', especially considering the particular needs of this roster.