Alex Tuch contract talks

[SABRES 0311]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Reinhart.  Ullmark.  Give them both LT deals instead of 1 year deals and the whole trajectory of this team changes significantly.

Reino yes. Ullmark, meh. Still better than UPL though.

[Broken Ankles]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I understand the basic argument you make, but its not quite that big of a difference.

The cap this year is about $95.5 million.  In 2027-28 the projection is 113.5.

Now, keep in mind that a reason for the big jump is going to be Television/streaming contract based in the next 2-3 years.  Its likely the cap will still go up after that, but the rate of increase will slow.

So a $10m deal in a cap world of $113.5 is 8.81% of the cap.  In todays cap, that is about $8.4m per year.

So, Again, I agree with your basic premise that some people might not be looking at an accelerated cap that closely, but the difference is a $10m deal is about $8.4m in todays cap, not $6m or less.

Now, he is worth it to the Sabres now, but its might be interesting to look at the 'midway' point of a potential new contract.  lets say he signs an 8 year extention.  After year 4, going into year 5,  he will be 34 years old (turning 35).  With 4 years left on that potential 8 year extension at that point, what kind of player will Tuch be with still half the contract left at that age?

And you have to think of next season with Skinner's buyount number going up by $2m to $6.4m for next year.   If no other changes are made to the roster (trades), the team already has about $80m of cap space accounted for in 2026-27, and that is without contracts for Tuch, Krebs, Benson, Doan, and Kesserling.

If next years cap DOES go up to $104m as projected, you have $24m to fit in new deals for Tuch, Kesserling, Doan, Benson and Krebs (or a Krebs replacement) before you make ANY other changes or additions.

Thanks for the additional insight using future cap numbers.  Here’s my question.  If he walks away from Buffalo’s offer of $9m * 8 years (big assumption) what is his value in the open market where there is a restriction to six years max term?  Is it $9m *6 ?  Is it $10m * 6?  Is it $11m *6?  Ultimately he has to find a path to $72m right?  Sure you can argue money isn’t everything in the equation.  Just know that an offer like that is coming from a team with cap space and it’s not the Stanley Cup Champion's.  If he manages a new deal of $60m at 6 years, he needs to sign a new deal after that one expires  for ~$12m in a new contract at age 36. This year Jamie Benn signed a one year deal for $1m (plus incentives).  Is Benn at  age 36 a comp?  If yes, what does that contract look like in 6 years?  What is Ben’s value on the open market, if it’s just about the money?  I get it that Alex and his camp have confidence in his abilities and are trying to maximize his value, but some of the CBA changes are countering the benefits that the Salary Cap expansion brings.  

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I go back and forth on the value of signing him long term.

Over most of last season, despite how well he was playing, I was not hoping for a long term deal.  But then, most of the Summer, I was all for giving him one, with the thought you are going to overpay in later years to get the next 1-3 years.

I'm not back on the not really wanting to give him a long term deal. You have him THIS year.  By the time NEXT year starts and you might not have him, I just have the feeling his age is going to be catching up to him.

So here is how I am looking at it now:  If Tuch is looking for close to $10m per year, even with an increasing cap, what kind of player are you going to have 2-3 years from now, and how much better will that likley 'declining' player be compred to one of the young guys who will be getting older?  Do you want to be paying Tuch high end top 6 money on a team that is tight to the cap, when he is 32, 33, 34 years old? Or would you rather be paying Rosen, Helenius, Benson, Kulich, Quinn, and/or Doan less money....and in 2-3 years from not might 2 or 3 of those guys be better than an aging Tuch?

Or, if you let Tuch walk after this year becaue he is looking for $10m per year, what kind of other player can you sign or trade for using that same $$ and can they be just as good for the next 2-4 years after this year?

I'm not paying Rosen a bag of nickels.