2018-19 By the Numbers

[CheckingLine]

Getting from last to respectable is not easy or likely, however here is what it will take based on 2017-18 numbers.

 

2017-18 Numbers

Average Goals For by Playoff teams: 256

Average Goals Against by Playoff teams: 225

Sabres Goals For: 198 (over 47% by 4 players- one traded)

Sabres Goals Against: 278

Sabres Fwds scored: 180

Sabres Defense scored: 18

 

Playoff Teams Goals Against Average: 2.74.

 

I noticed lately the GM spot for the Sabres is seasonal, so here is my shot at the title...

(not sure format would stay so I attached a jpg).

 

Core Players in Bold/Italics. Average Goals per line assuming 30 by the D.

Target average per line and player/slot is shown.

 

Earning or keeping a spot would be dependent on likelyhood of hitting the target.

 

Goalie has to be <2.74 GA/G.  Team below 225 GA for the season.

 

 

Left Wing    Center       Right Wing          Avg       

 

E-Rod         Eichel            ------                29       28/40/19 

------            Mitts              Okposo         17       14/17/20             

------            ROR              Reinhart        21      15/21/27

------            ------               -------                9         8/13/6

 

LHD                                 RHD                 30

Scandella                        Risto

Dahlin                             ------

Guhle                               -----                Total      GA/G

                       -------                                       <225      <2.74

 

Granted there are no numbers supporting E-Rod's or Mitt's targets.  It is pure speculation.  That's what GM's get fired for paid for doing.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Checking, the battle to respectability is going to be hard. To make the playoffs we are going to have to become a + goal differential team. If you look nearly every team with a + goal differential made the playoffs and every team with a negative differential didn’t. There are occasional exceptions but they are almost always close to break even.

 

 

For the Sabres therefore to make the playoffs next season We need at least 50 more goals scored and at least 40 less goals allowed.

 

Only 18 goals last season from the D is just awful and so is 198 goals total. In the Tor vs Buffalo thread I discussed their 11 players with 40+ pts to our 5.

 

The core here isn’t the problem, the depth around them is. Personally I think Jack is a 90 pt player with the right wingers. We also need to roll 3 dangerous lines and get to a legit top 4 D.

 

We aren’t there.

Edited May 6, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[PASabreFan]

Nothing to add at this point, just wanted to say good post. A lot of work and thought went into it.

[Beer]

Agree with PA, good post. Does the projected lines assume we trade Z, Larry, and Pommers? Or they will fill the empty slots and hopefully produce to your numbers?

 

This team needs wings that can score.

[CheckingLine]

The idea of the thread is to use numbers to support the line-up. You can propose fills for the empty spots or replace my choices. For instance filling in the D with players that can move the needle from 18 to 30 or finding a line mate for Mitts. Use possession stats, plus minus, shooting percentage, etc. For goalie using scoring chances they see vs what they’ll see as a Sabre and adjusting their save pct accordingly. Use current players, prospects or reasonably acquired players.

[LGR4GM]

I flip Dahlin to the right side where he plays and I put McCabe on his left. That gives you those 30 defensive goals you need. 

 

Scandella - Risto (4g + 7g)

McCabe - Dahlin (5g + 8g)

Guhle/Pilut - Bogo/Nelson (4g + 5g) 

 

Proof Dahlin played the right side for Frolunda: 

"Dahlin is capable of playing on either side, and he was actually used on the right side in Frölunda even though he’s a left-handed shot." SHL Writer Jokke Nevalainen

https://thechargingbuffalo.net/2018/05/06/5-sabres-prospect-questions-with-shl-writer-and-scout-jokke-nevalainen/

One side note: GAA is not a measure of the goalie but of the team. So yes a team needs to be below 2.74 unless they score at a ridiculous pace. I'd rather look at sv% or an adjusted sv% for a gt. 

[CheckingLine]

Fair point on sv%, who are you putting in goal?  I am not sold on Ullmark after the playoff fiasco this year. I am definitely not a Lehner fan.  I might try to explore what it would take to pry Grubauer out of Washington. 

Looking at sv% out of 95 goalies who played goal this year.  Includes 1 game wonders.

 

Ullmark - AHL 2017-18: .922 (would have been #31 this year in NHL)

               NHL (career -26 games, 3 yrs): 9.17 (would have been #31 this year.)

               NHL 2017-18: .935 (7th this year - only 5 games)

               2017-18 Calder Cup Playoffs: .800 (3 games).

 

 

Lehner - NHL 2017-18: .908 (#55 this year)

               Career NHL: .915 (would have been #34 this year)

 

Grubauer - NHL 2017-18: .923 (#21 this year)

               Career NHL: .923 (#21 this year) (101 games over 6 seasons)

 

Bernier - NHL 2017-18: .913 (#38 this year)

               Career NHL: .914 (#37 this year)

[LGR4GM]

To be truthful, I don't have a gt in mind. I am also concerned with Ullmark being the guy. I'd like him to have to compete against someone.