That Aud Smell

how could it properly be disregarded? it happened. it should be regarded in its proper context.

roughly. which, i think, is the point. STL probably needs the balance of the season to level out to where their underlying numbers predict they should be. and it still may not happen.

I don't know enough about the metrics, tbh, but I don't think they're ever really off. They may require additional context, of course. My understanding is that STL was good to very good on things like Corsi, shot share, expected goal differential -- all that good stuff -- but was still muddling around in terms of actual points. My guess is that something like PDO -- sometimes linked with "puck luck" -- was suppressing their points. I would also disagree that, if the underlying metrics are not in line with a 10-game win streak, then the metrics need to be adjusted. Rather, the metrics are predicting that what's happening is unsustainable from a production standpoint. But things like randomness, chaos theory (!), PDO, "getting the bounces," and so on have roles to play as well. Those are just harder to predict, or count on. A few years ago, COL had an entire season that sort of defied their metrics. IIRC, they crashed back to earth the following season. One problem with deploying the metrics comes when people who don't quite understand them in context (e.g., me) try to explain and apply them. I probably know just enough to be dangerous, as they say.

COYR. I declared for Liverpool years ago based on Bill Simmons' write-up for the EPL that he did for ESPN's fledgling online presence. It was the song that got me. That, and it was the home of the Beatles. My fandom has crept up on me. When Gerrard slipped, I was bummed -- but not quite bummed like a fan would be. Nowadays, I find myself thinking about the title race as much, if not more, than the Sabres' fortunes. Nervy stuff. City is a machine.

Friday night. Rangers in town. Should be a fun atmosphere in the building. Let's go, Buffalo! man, is he still slight. imagine him in 3 years' time?

Because most (nearly all of) their underlying metrics have been better all season long than what the Sabres had during their streak. And most of those same metrics were predicting more success than they were having when they were firmly in lottery territory. Many here have said they improved when their goaltending improved; I suspect their overall PDO had been abnormally low, too. The Sabres' underlying metrics did not support a 10-game win streak. By that measure, they were playing pretty well, IIRC, but not *that* well. That run was magical.

Interesting. But isn't Frodo more of an unheralded bottom 6 forward who does all the little things, the dirty work, kills penalties, blocks shots? ROR is leading his team in points. That seems more like Orc-slaughtering badassery, to me. Perhaps this warrants its own thread - lol.

Not for nothing: He's trending toward being an 80-point player this season. With some distance from the trade, and perhaps in light of the numbers he's posting this season, I am more resolute than ever that there were non-on-ice considerations of which we are ignorant, but which have been talked about here as rumours and/or insider information, that compelled this trade to happen. For that reason, I think it's a fool's errand to talk about the Sabres potentially winning that trade in terms of hockey assets. JBOT did not move a player of ROR's quality in the manner he did without good cause. (Btw, I'm not saying it was the right decision -- just that a rational GM perceived good cause.) This was a bitter, jagged pill to swallow.

Huh.

^ Good take, and instructive rumour/insight. I don’t think there can be any dispute that something significant motivated JBOT to make a very difficult decision on ROR. From a strict on-ice hockey perspective, it made little sense. So ... something was obviously afoot.

I think it's misleading to state it that way. He was doing yeoman's work when aspects of the team were struggling around him, and he's still doing that work now that reinforcements have arrived. Edit: If you'll allow it: Aragorn (from Lord of the Rings (sorry)) is slaughtering every orc in his path during a lengthy battle, but his fighting unit is ill-suited to the battle and losing. But, lo. A cavalry of men arrives (blowing the horn of ... something) and the tide steadily turns. Aragorn continues to do what he'd been doing. Good guys prevail. Aragorn may not have been the moving force in the turnaround, but he was instrumental to the victory. Gah. I think I hate myself for that one.

If true, those stories may continue to dog him. If not "his," "whose" team is St. Louis?

I'm not sure what it would mean to him, to be the guy. I suspect that getting top-line minutes and being the team's leader (captain?) are all part of it. The Sabres were clearly gonna be Jack's team. Perhaps he just found that untenable, in terms of what his aspirations are.

This is a good take. I don't disagree, entirely. And I certainly won't dismiss whatever it was that led a rational person, and experienced NHL FO person (JBOT), to trade away an on-ice performer like ROR. Look at those numbers, though. He's having a really good year. And now the team around him is coming together, and they're are on a helluva run. Occam's razor: The widely held theory that he wants nothing less than to be "the man" on a team is true. If he can slide into that role with Le Blues ... maybe it'll work?

Quite. From what I can tell, ROR is having a great year (on the ice).

I know. So stupid. Lulz.

Well, poison or not, there must have been a real and significant inter-personal conflict involving ROR for JBOT to trade him as he did. Because he’s proving again to be a damn effective hockey player.

The Blues are rolling. The talk of trouble following ROR was ... premature, I reckon.

Fair deuce on Hunwick not being on the ice for Dahlin's major gaffes. But, overall, Hunwick is an anchor. Dahlin had managed to elevate just about everyone's performance when he played with them. Not Hunwick.

I'll beg to differ. He was an absolute tire fire, based on what I was seeing at the game (live). And, I just checked to see if the stats match my untrained eyeball test. Yep: Hunwick had a horrendous 39% CF. The fact that he was paired with Dahlin contributed to the rookie having one of his worst games in memory.

What's up with Bogo? Hunwick was atrocious against the Jets.

Blechk.

Holy smokes. Dude was 31 when he was first with CHI. Thanks for the 411. Ah, right. Rian Smyth. My bad.