Archie Lee

I agree with your first paragraph. Less so the second. The Sabres are in the midst of a familiar narrative. Granato is perceived as having been soft on the players and the response is we need a coach who is more demanding. Hopefully that coach is successful for a period, but there is a better than even chance that 2-4 years from now we are looking for a coach who, as you say, treats the players like adults. Both styles can be successful. I tend to agree with Granato’s comments in the article. When a coach is fired a narrative forms. The players in their exit interviews, for the most part, stuck with the narrative. With nearly a week of distance between the firing and today, I am more certain than ever that the main culprit for last year’s team falling short is Adams (with a maybe to Pegula, as we may never know if there were spending limits). Yes the power play was bad and the slow starts were killers. These and other things got Granato fired. I’m ok with that. More accomplished coaches have been fired for less. But the Sabres as a playoff contender were a seriously flawed team. Those flaws were going to manifest themselves in some fashion. At best this roster was good for WC2 and a likely 1st rd exit. While that would be better than missing the playoffs, I can’t in good conscience say that I think Granato accomplished less, particularly when you consider last year as well, than Sullivan or Tortorella or Lalonde. I’m fine with the coaching change. I’ve said for several weeks now that the first and most significant thing that Adams could do to signal a change in expectation would be to replace Granato with one of a 1/2 dozen available coaches with a history of consistently winning 45+ NHL games a season. But make no mistake that we did not have a playoff roster. We were a team that needed everything to fall right to be seriously in the mix. Last year it did, this year it didn’t. If Adams doesn't address the roster there is little reason to be confident we will be significantly better next year, regardless of who the coach is.

Was it the coach? Or was it their experience and their players understanding how to win close games and drag games into extra time and manage the ups and downs of the long season. I have no reason to be critical of their coach, but I think I heard they have the worst for/against radio of a playoff team in history. I’m not ready to say they made the playoffs because of great coaching.

Agreed. The Blues roster was flawed and Berube was most likely getting as much out of them, give or take a few points, as there was to get. But, in my view, that’s what Granato did. The Sabres were not a playoff team. Some of that was on coaching, some was on the players underperforming and some of it (most in my view) was on poor roster construction. There are coaches who might have gotten this year’s team closer, but at best our roster was one that could stay with Washington and Philly and Detroit and NJ. Berube won’t drag us to being a contender without significant roster upgrades /changes.

I understand the sentiment, but here we are and Berube is looking for a job and the Blues are out of the playoffs. I will be very happy if we hire Berube or McLellan or Evason or any available veteran coach with a reputation for structure and holding players accountable. It is the one thing we have not tried, in the head coach role, since Ruff left. But it is worth noting that all the available veteran coaches that we are discussing are available because the same conclusion was made about them as was made about Granato: they were failing to get it done.

Not to mention that trainers and equipment staff don’t make the sort of income where moving every 2-3 years is feasible. It would be hard to get good people for those jobs if stability and security was not a feature of the positions.

I understand that the biggest knock against Benson is not his size but his skating. That doesn’t mean his skating is so bad that he shouldn’t be in the NHL (clearly not), but simply that it is a weakness. He makes up for his skating with his hockey sense and effort. He is rarely in the wrong position, he chooses good angles, he reads the play well and almost always makes the right decision on where to move the puck. And he is tenacious. He doesn’t out-skate many NHL players though.

I don't know which site has the most accurate #'s. Hockey Reference has UPL at +10.1 and Levi at -2.6 for what they call Goals Saved Above Average. Natural Stat Trick is similar at +10.2 for UPL and -2.56 for Levi (so close I wonder if they use the same data). These #'s more accurately reflect the 'eye-test' for me. Levi had some good games to be sure, and a couple great ones, I just don't think he played enough good games to get to a +9.4 when you consider the games he struggled in. Regardless, the MoneyPuck #'s tell a cautionary take for goalies. David Rittich +13.8.

I agree. With all the veteran coaches out there, replacing the existing coach is maybe the fastest way for a quick reset, culture change. Other coaches who might be vulnerable to a 1st rd playoff loss are Montgomery and Bednar. It seems crazy that either might have their jobs on the line, and I don’t think there is any indication that it is the case, but they both lost in rd 1 last year. A 2nd straight 1st rd exit and..

The guideline I think should be the Thompson contract that preceded his current deal: 3 x $1.4 million. It shows some commitment and belief from the team while giving the player the combination of security and some runway to clarify exactly what they are. Will the next contract be the same or less because they have made clear they are a bottom 6 or 4th line player? Or, will the next contract be a difficult decision for the team as there is not enough cap space to cover the warranted raise?

I think he undoubtedly benefited that first year from an almost unprecedented and prolonged heater from Binnington. Still, he clearly didn’t get in the way of winning. The next three years (two of them Covid years) they averaged 103 points per 82 games. Unlike Bylsma, he did that without a Crosby or a Malkin. If we are expecting to become a playoff team and then a contender, then we will need to become a more balanced and more talented team. That is regardless of who the next coach is.

By sudden urgency I don’t mean that he just figured this all out in the last week. I mean his sudden “expression” of urgency. Prior to yesterday, he had made no public expression of urgency and had actually rejected the notion when publicly asked about it.

For a prospect to be blocked from the NHL, they need to be ready for the role that they are projected to play at the NHL level. Peterka and Quinn, as examples, were not promoted to the NHL until they were ready to perform a middle to top 6 role as NHL wingers. Adams’s position on not blocking prospects never meant that he would promote them before they were ready. I don’t know when the last time I heard Adams reference not blocking prospects, but I know it was a position he was still taking at last year’s season ending presser. That said: - Levi was not blocked from the NHL. He is clearly projected by Adams to be a NHL starter and, indeed, was given a shot at the starter’s job. He was only demoted when it became clear that being in the NHL was possibly hindering, not helping, his development. - Kulich has not shown that he is ready to be an NHL regular. Kulich, who is in his 2nd season post-draft, has been very good in the AHL but he is not where Quinn and Peterka were at D+3 when they became NHL regulars. Also, he was given an opportunity to win an NHL position in camp. Adams did not plug the hole left by Quinn’s injury. Kulich lost the battle to an 18 yr old Benson. - Johnson it can maybe be argued was blocked, but then you need to accept that Adams knew before the season that Johnson would be better than any returning veteran or player they would add. Also, I think they want Johnson to be able to play a role higher than 6th D, so I’m not sure he was blocked if he is benefiting from playing a top 4 role in Rochester - Rousek does not belong in this discussion. I hope he carves out an NHL career but he does not project to be more than an NHL/AHL tweener.

Assuming Brind’Amour is a pipe-dream, Berube probably tops my list. He’s got a long coaching record with winning seasons in the AHL, made the playoffs as head coach of the Flyers, post-cup in St. Louis he continued winning including a 49 win season two years ago. My sense is that the Blues were a team built for a short cycle.

Just finished watching the press conference. I find an incongruence between Adams’s prior consistent approach of patience (we won’t block prospects) and his now sudden urgency. I’m glad that he sees the need to move things forward, but had be showed a bit of this urgency last off-season we might not be here today. I am fine with moving on from Granato (great guy, good coach, moved us forward, well paid, he’ll be fine), but I’m comfortable saying he was not dealt a winning hand by his GM. The good news about last year’s complacent off-season is that nothing happened that will cripple the team this off-season. The decision Adams makes on the next coach, will be the most important decision he makes as the GM.

It did not go very well the last time we fired the GM and kept the coach. It could happen, but I think it would take more than missing the playoffs. It would take the kind of putrid season that left Pegula thinking he had no choice but to fire Adams.

I have a lot of affection for Lindy Ruff. He would be low on my list though. There are extenuating circumstances to be sure, but Ruff’s teams have missed the playoffs 50% of the time. I recognize what he represents to Sabre fans, but without the Buffalo connection I don’t think he would be considered an attractive option.

Perhaps interesting is that Gallant basically travels from team to team with one assistant, Mike Kelly.

I think it will be someone who has a past connection with either Adams or Karmanos. Brind’Amour would be 1st choice, but that seems unlikely. Sullivan if he shakes loose from Pittsburgh. Maybe Pittsburgh assistant Todd Rierden, who had two winning seasons with the Caps, but no playoff success, after Trotz left. Maybe long-time Carolina assistant Jeff Daniels. Appert likely is a candidate. I will be surprised if Adams steps out of his comfort zone and hires someone he, or someone he trusts, has no history with.

I do want to see this team coached by a more experienced NHL coach with a winning pedigree. But, I also would have liked to see Granato coach a team that was built with winning in mind. I do think Granato could be a successful mid-season replacement for an underachieving team whose head coach is in the “hard to play for” category. It maybe just too early to read anything into who was fired and who wasn’t. I wonder if Appert is the fallback option. If Brind’Amour or Sullivan (or similar) are available and willing, they come in and decisions get made on Ellis and Wilford. If Adams can’t get his top choices, then Appert gets his shot.

The mistake is in equating a ranking of the talent and depth of prospect pools as relevant to how those pools are managed. That the Bruins are really good at managing the assets they have does not mean that their assets (in this case their prospects) are better. If you are saying you have more faith in what Boston will do with their limited prospect pool than what Buffalo will do with an objectively better pool, then you won’t get an argument from me. Buffalo’s prospect depth and talent is better though.

The Bruins would trade their prospects, including all those kids you mention, for Buffalo’s in a second. If the Bruins had our pool there would be 4-5 of our prospects who would have made their debut this year as the Bruins are in greater need of inserting a few players on ELCs. Now, there is no guarantee that a team can turn its top ranked prospect pool into a contending NHL team. That is clear. It is also clear that having a low ranked prospect pool does not mean you have to accept that you are just going to eventually be a loser. Make no mistake though, no NHL GM would take the Bruin’s prospect pool over the Sabres’ pool, and there wouldn’t be anything that resembles a debate. Of course, you know this.

You are correct that much of my thoughts are “in hindsight”. I don’t know how else to evaluate the situation. I was onboard with much of what he did and did not do last offseason. Now that the season is over it is time to evaluate the results. In hindsight, what’s worse for the future: That Adams didn’t have the urgent conviction of getting this team to the playoffs? Or that he so badly misunderstood where the team was that he thought Clifton and Johnson were the missing pieces? Maybe I’m the optimistic one. I think the organization can shift its level of conviction and urgency this off-season. I’m not sure we can overcome a GM who thinks that what we needed to take the next step was to replace Lyubushkin and Stillman with Clifton and Johnson.

I do not think Adams made moves last off-season with a conviction towards making the playoffs. At the end of last season, both Adams and Granato bristled when asked if they had missed an opportunity by falling short of the playoffs and also when asked if not making the playoffs this season would be considered failure. Note that I am not saying they are actively trying to lose. Rather, that they have not shown, in my view, any sign of accepting that not being a playoff contender this season is an unacceptable outcome. I agree with you that Adams has made clear what his intended pathway to success is. I am not eager for him to be replaced and want to see him continue as GM. I do think though that there are moments in a team’s progression where there needs to be a clear directional shift from rebuilding to contending. I’m not talking about a hollow “drill more wells” or “the rebuild is over” statement. I mean actions that set the tone. Last off-season, the decision to not make any changes on the coaching staff, to not move Olofsson (who Granato had lost all faith in), to bring back Jost, to not bring in a replacement for Quinn and change the make-up of the forwards, to not utilize existing cap space or draft/prospect capital to get better talent, to then start the season by rolling out a struggling Levi for 4 straight games, sent a clear message that winning was not an urgent matter for Adams and Granato (and Pegula, to be fair). There is no specific individual I want replaced, fired, cut, traded. What I want is for the Sabres to operate like a team that expects to make the playoffs in the coming season. There are around 22 or so NHL teams that operate that way in any given year. Not all are successful, obviously. We have not operated that way under Adams yet. My opinion is that he is a year overdue and that every year that he puts it off is a year that takes us further away and not closer to the goal.

Call the above what you will (committed, urgent, methodical, purposeful). The next time Adams makes such moves with the specific conviction of making the playoffs in the upcoming season, will be his first time.

I think you make valid points. While the Wings aren’t out of it yet, if they miss it will be 5 years out of the playoffs under Yzerman. I’m not sure they have enough high end young talent to move into perennial contender status. I also agree that longterm we are better positioned than Wash, Pitt, Phi, NYI and even some of the contenders (Bos, TB). Your last point about coaching and leadership is critical. Keep in mind that teams behind us are coming (or will at least be trying to). NJ will almost certainly add an experienced head coach and will get healthier over the summer. Ottawa sounds like they will hire Evason or Berube as their coach. They will get tougher to play against. Montreal is where we were 2 years ago; I saw a segment on one of the sports networks recently where it was indicated the expectation in Montreal (organizational) is that they are in the playoff race next year. There is no sign that the teams ahead of us are about to tank. I can’t help but think that the floundering of the Sabres, Wings and Senators has sent the message that deliberately being bad comes with risk of taking longer than expected to become good. At some point there needs to be some level of organizational urgency to end this drought. Last year at this time I thought we were better than 50/50 to end the drought this season. Right now I would put us at under 10% to make the playoffs next year. I just can’t find 8 teams in the East that I am confident we will be better than. How long until our current players have had enough?