sabremike
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Posts posted by sabremike
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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
I've been saying for months that Cozens will be a Sabre next fall. That is not exactly Earth shattering news. The real question is whether Jbot will be foolish again to force the kid in the 2C role or put another former center (like MoJo or Kahun) into the 2C role.
Ideally, MoJo and Kahun stay on the wings, Cozens plays 3C and Jbot gets a legit 2C.
Given this organization's (and the current GM's) lengthy and disastrous track record of mishandling prospects everyone would be wise to greet this news with a very healthy dose of skepticism.
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25 minutes ago, dudacek said:
This is the same Risto who we could have traded for Taylor Hall? Or the one that three consecutive coaches have used as a #1?
I get people not liking his game, but the hyperbole surrounding Risto Is ridiculous.
That was years ago before he was completely exposed and his value fell off a cliff.
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1 minute ago, Taro T said:
The 2C is going to cost Ristolainen or Montour plus. Those are good hockey players. If the 2C is coming from a cap strapped team, it could be Jokiharju is the key D piece going out. And the 2C the Sabres end up getting isn't likely to be the other team's 2C (unless it's Henrique, & the cost had better be reasonable if that's who comes back) but rather a young 3C with 2 guts established ahead of him & that's due a raise.
And it's possible that the trade is effectively a 3 way trade. (3 way trades no- bueno in the cap world. But a trade of say Risto for a low caphit haul which then goes off to TB along with other pieces and Cirelli comes back. Or the Sabres take on a minor cap hit hit to make the #'s work for TB.) The Sabres did essentially that to get Drury. They traded for Reinprecht & then he went out in the package for Drury back pre-lockout.
If Risto had any value he would've been long gone by now. Teams know what he is: a bad negative value player. Nobody is touching him unless you practically give him away. When a guy like Brian Burke (who is just about the least progressive/most old school hockey mind out there) says he'd never touch the guy that's all you need to know.
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2 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:
I agree, having the Sabres miss the 24 team playoff and be excluded from a lottery for the top 2 picks is clearly unfair
Creating a scenario that pointlessly screws over 2 teams for no good or logical reason whatsoever is so Peak NHL.
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2 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Whether the position gets addressed adequately or not is in question. But that a move for a 2C gets made doesn't seem to be as much of one. And with what's available, the only way to attempt to adequately address 2C is via trade. If this was 1 year from now, that 2C could possibly come from the prospect pool (Cozens, Mittelstadt, or even possibly Kahun). This season, none is a high enough probability to address it adequately to be an option. There isn't a viable UFA and doubt they'd go the offer sheet route.
Botterill knows he has to address this. The only remaining course of action is trade. There's no 100% chance it happens (thus the term likely being used), but would expect it to be at least 80% likely. We'll know reasonably soon 1 way or the other.
Here is the problem: Teams that have really good #2 centers (even teams with depth to where the player is playing on the 3rd or even 4th line) don't give them away. The only way you can acquire one via trade is to find a GM who you can take advantage of because they are so inept and in over their head (like Botts). So we need the guy who is the mark other teams go to when they want to sucker someone to find someone who is an even bigger sucker than he is. Those aren't good odds.
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3 hours ago, Eleven said:
It's $32 for a twelve-pack of soda?
They have it at Wegmans. I didn't find it to be anything special. But yes, very very sugary.
2 12 packs (24 cans total).
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Oh yes...
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3 minutes ago, shrader said:
Right, this one is bad because it was made by Jason Botterill. The Montreal ones are probably bad because they were made my Marc Bergevin. The Nashville one? Who cares how early it is, David Poille made the deal so it must be ok. How can anyone argue with this logic?
If you made a list of the bottom 5 GMs in the league Botts and Bergevin are both on it. And why Poille wasn't stupid: Nashville is a perennial contender, the Panthers: not so much. Therefore the odds were in fact good that Florida would not be good the following season and they would end up with a pick higher than the one they gave up. So they stood to gain value whereas the Botts pick had no chance of doing so.
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26 minutes ago, shrader said:
So earlier you argued that one was more valuable and now you're saying that they're all equal value? Pick a side.
Meanwhile in the 5th round, Montreal sent a 2018 5th round pick to Chicago for their 2019 5th round pick.
-Montreal also traded a 2018 4th round pick to Calgary for a 2019 4th round pick.
-Nashville traded a 2018 3rd round pick for to Florida for a 2019 3rd round pick.
-There were also multiple 7th round deals of this nature.So what is it, each of these GMs were played like a fool? You can't simply compare the pick numbers to make any declaration about any of these GMs.
If you can't see how the trade was like a Monty Python skit I can't help you. It's like something Karl Pilklington would do if you made him an NHL GM.
And we've already gone over why those trades were nowhere near as dumb as the one Botts made.
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6 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Except you aren’t dealing with a dartboard.
You invest a lot of resources into your scouting staff as a way to tilt the odds in your favour.
If your scouts say Aaron Huglen is a top 60 prospect and you can get him with pick 102 and pick 160-something, don’t you pull the trigger? I do.
If your scouts tell you this draft is 150 players deep and next year’s is deeper and you get offered a pick next year for a pick after your 150 are gone, don’t you take it? I do.
You are judging these moves based on arbitrary premises that probably don’t reflect the premises Botterill was given.
And the fact that his draft batting average makes Mario Mendoza look like Ty Cobb speaks for itself.
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4 minutes ago, shrader said:
These are the little things we can never track. For all we know, it could have also been a return on a previous favor. Those pesky "future considerations" exist even if they're not specifically mentioned in the trade.
Also, the values you suggested are kind of interesting. If you look at the 2019 draft, Buffalo wound up trading that Toronto pick along with their 7th rounder in 2019 for a 5th rounder in 2019. So that 2018 6th rounder along with a 2017 7th rouder wound up equating to a 2018 5th rounder... almost exactly what you're suggesting.
And Buffalo moved all over the place in the 2019 draft. I'd suspect that it was a draft they had more interest in.
They gave up 3 scratch off lottery tickets (which is what late round picks are) and ended up with 2. Think of it this way: anything after round 4 in any draft you can put every available name on a dartboard and whomever you hit you take and that has roughly the same exact odds of panning out. Probability says having more darts to throw increases your odds of winning
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7 minutes ago, Taro T said:
And further, he now has a small favor owed by a neighboring rival. The odds of the pick the Loafs made panning out is still slim. But now, for something later on that may seem inconsequential to the Loafs, but is of greater import to the Sabres, they owe Botterill one.
Probably inconsequential either way, but never a bad idea to have somebody owe you a favor, especially when it comes essentially at the value of a 7th round pick. (The delta in value from having that 6th today or next year, that 6th today is equivalent to either a single 5th next year, or a 6th & a 7th next year.)
Kinda funny that Botts is always the one doing favors for other teams in most of the moves he makes but oddly nobody ever seem to do favors for us. Almost as if doing favors for other organizations and expecting them to be repaid is really really dumb.
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9 minutes ago, shrader said:
And if you scroll through that draft an other drafts, you'll find several trades identical to this one, a pick in round X this year for a pick in round X next year. It doesn't matter how much you yell about this, it's a very common move and it doesn't make any of these GMs inept. And it also doesn't matter one bit that it's the first pick of the 6th round. The 156th overall pick does hold some magical value above anything else in that range.
Yes, and doing so is not completely stupid because in those cases there is actually a chance the pick next year ends up higher. There is zero chance of that if the pick you give up is the first in the round.
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1 minute ago, shrader said:
Wait, people actually care about trading a 2018 6th round pick for a 2019 6th round pick? You traded a scratch off lottery ticket today for one tomorrow. Look, we have plenty of things to use against him, but this one is a stretch, particularly with how much the talent pool varies from year to year.
He traded THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 6TH ROUND straight up for another team's 6th rounder next year that had ZERO CHANCE OF BEING BETTER THAN THE PICK HE GAVE UP. And on top of that another team that very draft swapped 6th rounders and got an additional pick for doing so, SOMETHING BOTTS WITH THE BEST PICK IN THE ENTIRE ROUND FAILED TO ACCOMPLISH. Seriously if you can't see that this was basically like a comedy sketch than I don't know what to say.
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2 hours ago, dudacek said:
In the growing list of Botterill mistakes, giving up a sixth rounder in order to move up 20 spots in the 4th round to pick a kid they had ranked much higher barely scratches the surface.
You missed the point: in the grand scheme of thing it wasn't giving away ROR but it's a very good example of the poor decision making that is a Botts trademark (just like the infamous straight swap of 6th rounders in 2018 that defied all logic and common sense).
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
He wasn’t injured when we drafted him. Sorry
The article specifically said he noticed something was wrong and he was feeling discomfort in May of 2019 (a month before the draft). It's also an example of Botts employing the absolute worst strategy you can use in a draft, which is giving up picks to move up after the first two rounds because everything else after that is a crapshoot and the best way to end up striking gold is to have as many picks as possible.
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7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
And we were a 78 pt team.
Interesting article in the News about Huglen. A lost year of development do to a bulging disk. https://buffalonews.com/2020/05/11/buffalo-sabres-fargo-force-aaron-huglen-nhl-ushl-news-2020/
I did like his coach’s comparison to Brock Nelson.
Trading up in the draft for a guy who is damaged goods and could end up out of the sport without playing a single pro game is Peak Botts
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That article was just so sad to read: this team has been put in a terrible position by the incompetence of management to the point they'd need a magician to get us out of it. Instead the guy who put us in that situation is going nowhere and will instead be expected to get us out of the Grand Canyon sized hole he himself is responsible for.
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If everyone is raving about this "amazing" draft wouldn't that make the #8 pick we will almost surely end up with really valuable, as in something that if we had a competent GM could easily get us a real good player back and help us not be a league laughingstock NOW as opposed to half a decade from now?
On 5/8/2020 at 7:47 PM, dudacek said:Raymond is our most likely pick, right? Playmaking, smooth-skating, smallish right wing, from Frolunda no less?
Ticks a lot of Botterill boxes.
Ceiling isn't low enough so Botts will pass.
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2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:
But @Wyldnwoody44 didn't say that. He said this:
In other words: the point of social distancing isn't to prevent people from getting the virus, it's to prevent too many people from getting it at once and thus overwhelming the HC system.
The HC system is far less taxed at present than was expected to be the case, even when social distancing is factored in.
If we are at the point where re-opening would not overtax the HC system -- and no one knows the answer on that, but we'll find out pretty soon as most states are re-opening -- then keeping social distancing in effect will not reduce the total number of deaths from the virus.
In the meantime, you've insulted someone who was working brutal hours on the front lines against this virus, was highly stressed out and was here looking for some friendship and support.
I'd also like to add this: many people seem to be ignoring the concept of the Seen and Unseen. We can see the actual number of people listed as dying from the virus. What is going unseen is that the ongoing lockdown is also killing and destroying people. People have lost their jobs and in the incompetent cesspool known as NYS if you file for unemployment your claim will be processed on the 10th of Never (and that's if you are somehow fortunate enough to get it successfully sent on the website that is designed as well as something you would see on Geocities) which I am all too familiar with. People are unable to get needed medical treatment because it has all been cancelled. People won't go to a hospital under any circumstance because they have been terrified into thinking that they are filled to the brim with people suffering with this (like a neighbor who has a torn/broken ankle that is purple but has decided to self medicate with a dozen tall boys instead). There is the long term damage of people gaining massive amounts of weight from being inside with nothing to do. I lost over 100 pounds over the last decade and it did wonders for my health, if I gain it back that has a far greater chance of doing me in than the virus. There is the mental health damage from being under de facto house arrest, having no job, nowhere to go and having no purpose in life. That last one is such an important thing that nobody seems to understand: My job at Kohl's gave me more than a paycheck, it gives me a feeling of accomplishing something and being productive (which is why while an Unemployment Check would certainly help it isn't a true substitute for what I have really lost). And obviously economic destruction and economic collapse cause poverty, which history has taught us brings death in multiple ways. In fact, the areas that were hardest hit were places that were poor and filled with people with underlying health conditions that made them far more susceptible to the virus. I guess my general point is that just viewing this as just a medical problem is just as big a mistake as viewing it solely as an economic problem. And furthermore people accusing anyone who doesn't agree with them of not caring about people dying is being absurd. Do you seriously think either Trump or Cuomo want people to die? No, they both want this thing to do as little damage as possible but disagree on how to accomplish that.
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3 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:
The first quote in the story sounds they’re saying “You can trust us. We wanted to keep you safe by using drones to observe you.”
I stayed out of the conversation for a while. I wonder if they would’ve still walked it back if people in other parts of the country weren’t protesting other COVID control measures while carrying guns.
The people who showed up carrying guns were so stupid that my first thought is that they were the group's political opponents posing as members to make them look bad, but they weren't.
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On 5/1/2020 at 1:35 PM, Randall Flagg said:
I don't have a gauge on the likelihood of this, but I think it's closer to Tage's likelihood (which I view as slim)
YOU TAKE THAT BACK?
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I have never understood why there is so much hostility towards what is essentially pattern recognition and using numerical formulas to express common sense conclusions (Such as corsi/fenwick which suggest taking more shots than the other team is a good thing).
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ESPN Article: Sabres are the NHL's Biggest Disaster
in The Aud Club
Posted
At this point I'd settle for Buh Buh Ray and D-Von Dudley being brought in to run things.