Marvin
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Posts posted by Marvin
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Oh, on the actual subject of this thread:
It is extraordinarily unlikely that your flu shot would help you if you were infected with a coronavirus. Anti-viral vaccinations don't work like that. This is why you can get a flu shot for the proper strains at the beginning of the season, yet get the flu from a virus you were immunised for towards the end of the season -- it mutated. Coronavirus is even more different from influenza than influenza mutations are from the initial strain.
Let me balance out the fear with some hope:
- SARS had a far greater morbidity rate than even the most pessimistic estimates for the coronavirus, but it was eventually successfully contained.
- The Communist Chinese government has the cities locked down and other around the world are working on protecting people and isolating cases, so we might have a chance.
- People are building on the experience from SARS, so no one is getting caught flat-footed this time.
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3 hours ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:
One thing I have often wondered (I am the silent majority politically, the one of many that is fed up with both sides equally) but I wonder if these fact checkers themselves are extreme one way or another. It can be an endless cycle
Disclaimer: I am a Never Trump former-Republican. Please take my bias here into account.
Whenever I want an evaluation of the quality of fact-checkers, I took the advice of those who know better than I do and go to realclearpolitics.com. It has a slight, but definite conservative bias. Their commentary is moderately conservative. Their news aggregation is mostly from the very liberal (Huffington Post, The Nation) through the "Main Stream Media" through the conservative to stuff bordering on alt-right. (Again, the slightly rightward bias shows through.) This is strongly recommended by the few active Washington-level politicos I know.
If you want neutral news reports, I strongly recommend the Christian Science Monitor. Everyone I know who is politically active, from hard-core conservatives to quasi-socialists, agrees that their reporting is top-notch.
On the evaluation of PJMedia, I think the evaluation SDS posted is accurate.
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5 minutes ago, 5th line wingnutt said:
A coronavirus (COVID-19) roundup.
Be very careful of PJMedia. It is like The Young Turks on the right, except with more experience and connections.
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4 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:
Unfortunately, too many teams look at Buffalo as an opportunity to play their backup netminders. They know we have problems finishing!
The Buffalo Sabres' inability to finish scoring chances reminds me of this exchange from the 1966 Batman film:
Catwoman: Riddler, you fool! Penguin must have finished them (Batman and Robin) by now!
Riddler: Why, that stupid waddling mountebank of a bird! He couldn't finish a bag of popcorn!
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Just now, Claude Balls said:
Jeesh, now Eichel can't even hit the net. That "can't finish" stink is rubbing off on him.
One of the reasons I wanted Eichel and Skinner on the same line while Olofsson was out is that each one of them could get the other off the schneid because they are both so dangerous.
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Game Report
1. I finally settled on "DVAENGNH" for "Duane" - V for U as in Latin, AE ligature from Gaelic, and NGNH from Sanskrit. People who noticed it looked at me funnily until I explained it.
Interestingly, the PSE employees were cool with it. A couple even had a laugh. My impression is that they know some tipping point has been reached - fans apparently can vent freely. The arena was about 2/3 full and was mostly lifeless. A few season ticket holders I know said that attendance is steadily declining and the arena sometimes verges on the toxic.
2. I have been to 4 games this year -- and all 4 have been an indictment of JNot's roster construction.
In all 4 games, either Montour or Miller has played LD while the other played RD in their games. They are noticeably worse on the left: their angles were off; they regularly hesitated; their anticipation was non-existent; they routinely misread plays.
Conversely, wow, Mojo looks way more comfortable on the wing with a natural centre. Whodathunkit?
Skinner did lots of things right. However, he does not trust his linemates to do anything coherent, was hesitant making plays, and sometimes made inferior plays because he is trying too hard. Maybe a natural centre and someone other than Frolik on the other wing would be good for him. Nah, can't be.
Speaking of Frolik, he definitely can slow down the game when the team needs it and can kill penalties. Nothing that helps Skinner, though. Of course, if helping Skinner mattered to Botterill, there would be another centre at least as good as Lazar available for Krueger. And that's aside from wondering why Krueger didn't play Skinner much with Eichel while Olofsson was out.
3. Aside from the obvious candidates, this team can't string together three consecutive clean, crisp passes. IMHO, Kruegers version of the possession game is great for Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Skinner, Johansson, Dahlin, Jokiharu, and eventually Pilut. It occasionally works for other players, but IMHO, those lesser players need a simpler possession structure to function. Because executing some of the passes designed for within the system is beyond have the skaters' ken, this team has sloppier passing than the "Failed Rochester Core."`
On the other hand, at least the system isn't as dumb as Bylsma's; I and others around me at the game laughed at the system far too often because the players routinely passed up superior plays for ones that were "safe verging on paranoid."
4. Hutton played well. A couple of his saves really lifted the team in the first period. If he could have played this way for the last 3 months, the Sabres would be within reach of the playoffs.
5. I saw more spirit and grit in the team the last few games. The scrum after the boarding call was a welcome surprise to the entire arena. I don't know how much it matters.
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Going to the game in a red, white, and blue tie-dyed turban and wearing a name sticker with "Dh'waengnh". I liked the Sanskrit letters "dh" and the full-tongued "n" mixed with the Gaelic ae ligature. It is a fun way to misspell "Duane" as people suggested.
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2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:
Human?
I hope to evolve into one from further down the evolutionary tree. I am still working on it.
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4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:
I could be missing something in your post but I come up with $96M....
top line...........$27M
top 4 D...........$25M
2 GT...............$9M
2nd line........$14M
2 more D......$5M
bottom 6......$16M
total..............$96M
Welp, even guys with math degrees can screw up their arithmetic in a bar. I am sooooooooooooooooo embarrassed.
I had better rethink this.
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17 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Ok so we a need better goaltending tandem; 4 NHL caliber centers so add two 2C's - got it; better forwards including 2 fighters - ok check; and 6 good defensemen so add two more big tough defensemen - check.
how many years will this take and how much over the cap can we go?
I went to CapFriendly to work this out
You hope that Cozens, Mittlestadt, and/or someone else give you a pair of #2 centres in a few years. Before then, you find a pair of #3Cs.
Say Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart total $27M. (Realistic.)
Let us take Pilut, Jokiharu, and Dahlin off their ELCs and make them and Miller all top-90 defencemen by salary and Dahlin get $10M, which puts them at $25M.
A decent 1B goaltender to go with Ullmark is not going to cost too much. These guys (#15-25) average about $4.5M, so say they are $9M combined.
Your 2nd line with everyone between #35-40 in salary makes $14M
That's 6F in the top 1/3 of the league, 4D in the top 1/2 of the league, and 2 average G for $67M. Let us look at the bottom half of the roster. No one gets an ELC.
Grind-it-out, responsible defencemen are hardly that expensive. I could live with guys like Carl Gunnarsson, Matt Grzelczyk, Braydon Coburn, and Brooks Orpik as #5-8 behind behind Dahlin-Jokiharu and Pilut-Miller. These guys are clear 5-7 defencemen now and would be cheap as FAs. A pair of low-end 4D total $5M.
IMHO, you can go the route of the 1995 New Jersey Devils and run a pair of lines like Girgensons-Larsson-Lazar out there for 12 minutes each. Even with Okposo's $6M, you can put 5 other guys there who are #91 and #120 in salary at their positions for $10M total with no one on an ELC. That's $16M total. Incidentally, that is also the cost of a third line of all second-liners ($14M) and a 4th line of guys at the veteran minimum ($2M).
The bottom half of the roster is $21M. That's $88M where everybody is in the top 1/2 of salary for their line-up function and Okposo. I think that would be a Cup Contender -- and next season, Dahlin, Pilut, and Jokiharu as still on their ELCs. This gives Cozens and Mittlestadt at the very least 2 seasons to make the team as well.
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10 hours ago, freester said:
Your analogies are out of whack.
1. we have a good backup goalie in Ullmark we need a starter number 1 goalie like Ryan Miller2. We have Mair and Gaustad already in Larson and Girgensons. That is not what we need. We need a true #2 Center like Cirelli, RNH etc. We also need a #3 Center
3. The log line is a 4th line not a 3rd line. Mojo belongs as a winger on 3rd line.
4. We need some physicality on defense besides Risto.
5.Tim Connolly 2006 playoffs was amazing
Ideally, I would like this, because I think this composition is what a real Cup Contender can look like. I am aiming far, far lower with the first batch of ideas because I was thinking about what a Botterill-level GM could do with this team to get it into the playoffs next year -- @Scottysabres point notwithstanding, much as I agree with it.
1. I think of Ullmark currently as a low tier #1 goaltender (think Martin Biron or Clint Malarchuk) and think that we could make the playoffs with a similar goaltender. That seems realistic for Botterill.
If we want to be a Cup contender, either he improves to clear #1 level or someone better comes along so that we have a very good #2 that we have confidence in.
2, 3. Mair-Gaustad-Kaleta is a lot like how I see Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo. However, I can live with them as a 3rd line for this season. Can JNot improve rest of the bottom 6 and the centre spine by next season?
The above dovetails into another issue. One poster on HFBoards found a collection of stats that showed that Skinner and Johansson were far better off on different lines. With our current line-up, the best I think we could do for a top 6 is Olofsson-Eichel-Johansson and Skinner-Lazar-Reinhart. That's how badly we need middle 6 centres.
4. That was my point about balance on defence. I need a couple of guys to allow guys like Dahlin and Jokiharu to freelance, to win puck battles along the boards, and to help with more physical teams. IMHO, our current defence can get us to the playoffs, but we would be lucky to last 6 games with it.
@Ducky is also correct - if he doesn't regain form, the Skinner contract will be a killer for a LONG time. I have accepted that Okposo is overpaid, but can have a positive impact on a 4th line as he is now.
5. If Botterill gets the team to a point that we have 2006 playoffs Tim Connolly as our #3 Centre, I might just take back some of the nasty things I have said about him so far. Maybe. ?
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3 hours ago, #freejame said:
I’m would be surprised if most playoffs have three years of continuity on their fourth lines. Good teams don’t fill their fourth lines like that.
It is uncommon. However, Had the Sabres kept the co-captains, that 4th line of Mair, Gaustad, Kaleta, et al. could have lasted a while.
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Just now, spndnchz said:
R u f ing kidding me! Omg
Nope. No kidding. These guys are fragile - scared and fragile.
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Just now, Tondas said:
I have become comfortably numb.
I thought this came after you went into an empty arena for the next game and asked, "Hello, is there anybody in there? ..."
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Just now, Beer said:
Larry, Z and Lazar
RK Jedi mind trick
These are not the scorers you are looking for.
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Just now, Wyldnwoody44 said:
Risto just hit eichel.... Sums up the year
And Eichel looked hurt.
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1 minute ago, Pimlach said:
Your keeping to many players that lose games.
I gotta start somewhere. I just was thinking about the base before we do anything. I would imagine no more than 6 of those D survive a purge. Some of those forwards get traded. But that's the base.
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Repeat after me: "The guy behind the net can't score from there." --- Jim Schoenfeld.
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Just now, Pimlach said:
McCabe can go.
I really support trading all the players on this team except Jack, Dahlin, Olofsson, Uhlmark and I guess we can’t trade Skinner (salary).
Maybe I keep Risto ?The rest have all been hear too long in a losing environment or they are JBot garbage acquisitions.
Of course I say this out if complete frustration but I do think a major house cleaning is long overdue.
Let's see. Eichel (1C), Dahlin(1LD), Oloffson (1LW), Skinner (1LW), Jokiharu (1RD), and Ullmark (1G) definitely. Probably also Johansson (2RW), Reinhart (1RW), Pilut (2LD), Ristolainen (2RD). Can't move Okposo (4RW). That's 6F, 4D, 1G. I want 9F, 4D, and 1G more.
We have a surfeit of defencemen, so Miller, Hickey, Bryson, Nelson, Borgen, Fitzgerald, Gilmour, and MacWilliam should produce 4.
Forwards are thin: after Asplund, Cozens, Mittlestadt, Thompson, and maybe Lazar, we have what look like a bunch of borderline NHLers: Dea, Malone, Oglevie, CJ Smith, Wilson, Cornel. I need at least 2 C's if Cozens and Mittlestadt are not ready. I also need a 2G.
The GM has work to do.
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Just now, Pimlach said:
Yeah, but my old a Northland lasted for years. LOL
The one thing I would like a new stick to have is a different sound when the puck hits it when the stick has a crack. You could always tell to change your wooden stick just by the sound off the puck hitting it.
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Just now, Indabuff said:
Good idea just make sure you mispell it.
Thanks! How is it properly spelled? Maybe I should go "Dwayne. Duane, and Dwain" in honour of "Larry, his brother Darrell, and his other brother Darryl."
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Just now, Andrew Amerk said:
So, there’s a protest coming up, you say?
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I think a name tag of "Duane" for Sunday's game will be my start. I want to see what the ushers do when I show it to them.
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Just now, #freejame said:
This is the first time I literally scoffed at a lineup. I thought Skinner wasn’t even playing at first. I was never officially on the RFK bandwagon and now I’m leaning towards jumping on the “incredibly skeptical of RFK” bandwagon. WTF is he doing with Skinner?
^AGREED! If Skinner's not going to be with Eichel, I was thinking that maybe Skinner-Lazar-Johansson could do something constructive.
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I empathise with the need to vent on JNot. But I want to add something to the conversation: I want to know what steps the Sabres need to make to become a clear playoff team and the steps to become a contender thereafter. For instance, even though I doubt JNot can do it, I think he can make the Sabres a playoff team next season with some minor changes; contending is another matter entirely. (I don't know how to improve grit, but if you have a concrete idea, I would love to know.)
Playoffs only - IMHO, 1 of these put them into playoff contention; all of them make the team a solid playoff bet:
1. Get at least an average back-up goaltender. As many have said, if Hutton had just been merely average, the Sabres would be in the thick of the playoff race. If we add the extra rest that Ullmark could have got, I think that puts us well into a Wild Card spot.
2. Distribute the forwards and defencemen in the system better to be able to consistently dress 12F-6D each game with relatively set lines and pairings with players clearly able to play at that level. The juggling Krueger needs to do makes me wonder if just having a set line-up would help with preparation and chemistry.
3. Have at least 4 actual, NHL-level, natural centres on the Sabres's roster. This is the most glaring weakness on a roster pock-marked with them. You don't try to convert someone to centre unless injuries get really bad. I imagine Skinner and Johansson would love a natural centre to be with them.
Contenders - I think they need all of these:
1. Get at least 1, preferably 2 #2 centres --- even if they are both 2c level.. I would like my 3c to be at least Peter McNab quality, although Dave Hannan is more realistic (2006 Playoffs Tim Connolly is not). Heck, just a bunch of hard working 3-4 centres would work. (Think the quartet of Roy, Gaustad, Mair, and Novotny that the Sabres used during the injury-filled 2005-6 season when Briere, Hecht, and Connolly were all out of the line-up.)
2. Have a good goaltending tandem. Miller-Biron is my model here, although maybe one of Edwards-Sauve, Barrasso-Puppa, or Puppa--Malarchuk is the more realistic model.
3. Get balance on defence. We need at least a couple of solid, defencive defencemen to go with all the puck-movers.
4. Add real quality depth. One of the reasons I like 2005-7 as a model is because we had guys like Roy (he started in Rochester), Pominville, Novoty, Paille, Stafford, Thorburn, MacArthur, Ryan, and Kaleta to play with the big club. Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo is a great bottom 6 line; it should not be the 2nd best line most nights.
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Rochester Amerks 2019-2020 Season
in The Aud Club
Posted
I actually wish UPL had played the entire year in the ECHL just to learn the geometry of NA ice surfaces. Then, next year, he could learn the speed of the AHL.
However, maybe his career will be like Ryan Miller's in the NHL. Does anyone remember his first few disasters for the Sabres? Giving up on a 20 year old just seems overly pessimistic.