Marvin
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Posts posted by Marvin
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For the record (probably 16 rpm as JBottom looks like he learnt how to put a team together off the back of a cereal box), the NHL record for most consecutive regulation losses in a row is 17, set by the 1974-5 Washington Crapitals and equaled by the 1992-3 San Jose Sharts. The Sabres of 2014-5 are tied for 4th with 14.
The NHL record for longest winning streak is 17 by the 1992-3 Pittsburgh Penguins.
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2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Google the post game comments from Cassidy and the Bruins about the fight filled Tampa game. It might not be old styled hockey any more, but that's not Sabres hockey either.
This is pretty much all I mean. People latch onto the fighting aspects and that's an easy target but that's not what it's about. It's about caring, emotional play, and not being pushed around when and if it does get tough.
What I really meant was building a team the old way. A balanced line up with some skill, some toughness. A mix of scorers and checkers. Not this deep analytical nonsense that thinks it can reinvent the game by using computers.
As a math person, I go the other way on this: things like grit, determination, etc. DO turn up in the numbers if you know how to measure and infer them. Managers I know of have attempted to model and quantify factors that allow them to measure grit. Indeed, there are at least two books on management and managerial decision theory that explain how to quantify grit, mental toughness, etc. in the corporate setting. These are done via indirect means, but with quantifiable metrics.
Example 1: I worked on a project where one person who moved from one part to another invariably got people to feel happier about their productivity, even though the concrete metrics initially looked mixed. Eventually, we saw that the parts she worked on might come out a bit more slowly, but NEVER failed QA and performance tests. Then their code was updated to be used by other groups within the project. We determined that she increased the mental discipline and quality of thought wherever she worked. We checked with her superiors and, after some reflection, they agreed.
Example 2: I was at a company where we hired this kid fresh out of college. He was added to a software project with a pile of legacy code that other people more-or-less had given up on. Two months later, that group had made more progress with this person than they had the previous year. Moreover, the enthusiasm of the group was higher and they were now pushing through issues rather than putting them off. The kid had added grit, determination, and mental toughness. They even said so at the salary determination meeting.
You would need to do this with hockey as well. But to model these well, you must choose the proper metrics. I know a couple of Big Data companies in Buffalo that would like to hire you if you can get the Sabres to buy in.
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2 hours ago, Crosschecking said:
Don't forget Doctor Who with Tom Baker.
You young whipper snapper! (Whistles some chaw t'backy into a spittoon.) Channel 17 was one of the first 10 stations in the country to get Jon Pertwee! By cracky, my copies of "Doctor Who and the Silurians" and "The Ambassadors of Death" even have WNED and Mark Russell promos on them.
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1 hour ago, Curt said:
I agree with you that most decisions made by coaches/GMs likely have data to back them up. The issue, I think, is that if you don’t approach a decision with critical thinking or if you are not placing value on the right things, then you are still going to make a lot of poor decisions. Data can be found to back up almost any point of view.
For an overly simplistic example, if you place more value on Hits or Corsi than High Danger Scoring Chances or Expected Goals, then you are going to be targeting inferior players a lot of the time, but you still can say that you have data to back up your decisions.
Thank you.
The oldest saw about analysis is, "if your assumptions are wrong, then it is likely that your conclusions will not be very good either."
IMHO, JBottom is here with his data analysis. PSE may also need more and better minds involved in the data mining, machine learning, and statistical analysis process. I have no idea how we could not competently fill in the bottom of the roster and not have 4 natural NHL centres on the roster 2 years in a row.
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27 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
Yup, it's becoming clearer.
Girgensons is the guy with the multiple three-stooges shifts, where a variety of physical follies rapidly pile up against him, usually from his own teammates. Shifts where he runs into his own man, and then promptly takes a dump-in attempt off the faceI remember Girgensons getting a delay of game penalty by flipping the puck over the glass at other end of the ice.
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5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
I was thinking about this and while I think it makes sense for us as people to think that way it is short sighted. Jack and Sam played very well this year and won us a bunch of games. Without that play these 5 games would have been meaningless. I more depressed that no one other than the GLO line was able to consistently create for this team when the Eichel line slumped. Most of the top lines have a slump here or there (probably not 5 games but easily 1-3) and the best teams keep rolling.
Just wondering why it has been impossible for JBottom to make a second LOG-type line since he came on board. Is it really that hard to do in the off-season?
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6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:
This was a while ago, probably 2016-17, but I vividly remember this play in LA where somebody sprung Deslauriers on a rush, he and Ennis were flying down the ice with purpose right towards the LA defensemen. Ennis was about 10 feet to Nic's right. The rush abruptly ended when Deslauriers passed the puck, not to Tyler's stick blade, but into the crook of his elbow - a play exceptionally more difficult to do on purpose than a pass to the tape from that close.
It might sound like nothing but it was really funny at the time
I remember one of the small, but funny moments because it turned me against Bylsma.
I didn't believe Pens' fans' complaints about his system until I went to a preseason game against Columbus before the 2015-6 season. After the 4th time that a defenceman just flipped the puck out of the defencive zone when he was not under pressure and had open teammates he could have head manned to, I started laughing at the system like the villain in a black-and-white serialised melodrama.
Sadly, that season was the high point of the current dry spell. I can't believe it has got worse, let alone this much worse.
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Sabrepede. It is one of the funniest things I have ever seen on the ice.
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8 hours ago, PASabreFan said:
There's so much emphasis in analytics on one player or one pairing. Are there fancy stats for five-man units? We all know, or should know, defense is more than two defensemen, offense is more than three forwards yada yada yada.
The only times I know of ensemble-related analytics were when the Red Wings did this when they put together The Russian Five, that Boston did some back when Boychuk broke Vanek's ankle, and I know someone who did it last season when he compared the LOG line to other 3rd and 4th lines last season.
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Regardless of what his plan was, he should have adjusted it when his team showed it was potentially capable of more than expected. For two years running:
1. The roster had glaring flaws to start the off-season.
2. At least one glaring hole was left completely unfilled after the off-season; moreover, not enough pieces were added to ice an adequate team of 4 clear NHL centres, 8 functional NHL wingers, 3 competent pairs of NHL defencemen, and 2 passable NHL goaltenders when completely healthy.
3. The offence was compounded by not enhancing the roster in-season in a timely fashion; the help at the TDL was too little, too late.
4. There are not enough players in the system who, with ordinary luck for the Sabres, could be claimed would adequately fill all the roster issues with any kind of confidence.
Exactly what evidence is there that this offseason would be different? I am a skeptic who wants to be convinced I am over-reacting.
Addendum: the more I criticise JNot, the less inclined I am to be overly critical of either Housley or Kreuger. How sad is that?
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Bias alert: I was on the Boot Botterill Bandwagon last season.
I will concede that triumph_communes has a point in that we underestimate the effect of not having Reinhart transition to centre. However, at the very least, Botterill has been manifestly unable to fill in the roster with NHL players:
2017-8: Jordan Nolan, Seth Griffith, Jacob Josefson, Benoit Pouliot, Justin Falk, Nathan Beaulieu (not to mention Moulson, Bogosian, Ristolainen, and the goaltending)
2018-9: Remi Elie, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittlestadt, Conor Sheary, Evan Rodrigues (and add Bogosian, Beaulieu, the Scandella-Ristolainen pairing, the holes at centre, and goaltending problems)
2019-20: Michael Frolik, Mittlestadt, Sobotka, Sheary, Rodrigues (plus the mis-constructed line-up overall with even more holes at centre and goaltending issues)
Each season, even when fully healthy, the team iced at least one line of sub-NHL players that Botterill specifically brought in. (Note that Housley was dealt two particularly bad hands and that Kreuger was not done any favours.) Moreover, the Sabres haven't even had 4 experienced, NHL-quality, natural centres on a roster yet in his tenure.
He also has failed to enhance the line-up when warranted. IMHO, you don't win 10 games in a row by accident. (Last season, I would have moved both extra firsts if need be for a 2C with term.) There were competent, inexpensive 2-3C's available in this past offseason which could have tided them over until Mittelstadt and/or Cozens is ready. 3C's are still being traded.
Imagine all 12 forwards on the ice being NHL quality where Skinner has a real centre. Imagine a goaltender who does not remind you of the Gerry Desjardins in the 1975 Stanley Cup Finals.
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1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:
His defensive philosophy was also a head-scratcher. I've never seen a team have to dress 7 D and 11 F, which I believe caused unnecessary tension in the room and never let the D get comfortable with their roles.
Peter Laviolette likes the 11F-7D allocation, but he is decidedly the exception. Based on how often he switched to 12F-6D when possible, I don't think RK prefers it, but was stuck with it because of JNot's roster construction.
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Fans' treatment of Lehner was flat out horrible because of the price GMTM paid to get him. It would not be healthy for either him or the fans. IMHO, you can also cross out any close friends he had among goaltenders around the league.
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12 hours ago, ... said:
You do realise that this gesture was followed by the following dialogue, right?
Countess: Be careful, my dear. He's not as stupid as he seems.
Count: My dear, *nobody* could be as stupid as he seems.
11 hours ago, jad1 said:I think this team is causing the good people on this board to lose their minds.
Nah. Mislaid them? Sure.
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In all questions below, assume that Dominik Kahun does not become a centre and that none of Mittlestadt, Cozens, or a draft pick are ready to be an NHL centre next season or the season after in a 2C role. I am assuming that all 3 are NHL players by then, although you don't need to.
1. Thread cross-over question: How much does getting a competent 2C help our scoring? I am thinking of the bottom half of 2C's in the league.
2. In-thread question: How much does getting a defencive-minded 3C with a modicum of skill (think somewhere between Mike Peca and Stu Barnes) help our scoring?
3. In-thread question: how much does getting a highly skilled 3C with defencive flaws (think Cody Hodgson without the health problems and personal issues) help our scoring?
4. If you can only get a 3C with flaws, how do you build the Sabres to be a legitimate Cup threat?
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After watching last night's highlights, I am more puzzled by NHL GM's than ever.
The Sabres clearly looked invigourated by getting Simmonds. I can't believe there haven't been many "sideways" NHL trades from, say, New Year's Day or even the All Star Break to the Trade Deadline for years. Teams like the Sabres in the last 2 years could save a season by trading each other useful but marginal players at complementary positions. If the team had added Simmonds a month ago and played like that in the big home stand, they would be on the brink of the playoffs now.
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2 hours ago, Taro T said:
They were shown on Cable Channel 10. Not sure if that was only broadcasting Sabres games or if they showed other things the rest of the time. Pretty sure it would've been the latter, but as we didn't get cable run to our area until the late '80's, don't know that for certain.
My friends had it. There wasn't much else on channel 10 except stock trading and weather reports. It also carried network shows when games pre-empted them.
If memory serves me right (for the _Iron Chef_ fans), we had 2, 4, 5 (6), 7, 9 (8), 11, 17 (3), 19 (12), and 29 (9). Channel 5 had HBO and Rangers games. I remember channel 19 very distinctly because _Doctor Who_ was on at a different time from Channel 17. I can't recall what was on 13.
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1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:
Ok, I have different memories of the Jock Strap and Yes Virginia comments, perhaps he said them more than once. I remember the jock strap comment was Richard Seveniegh (spelling?) and the Yes Virginia was in 1983 with Boston, leading to the OT loss in Boston..
He definitely said them more than once. I recall it was Bryan Lefley of the Kansas City Scouts that Gil Perreault deked right of his jockstrap. ("He's crawling around on the ice looking for it.") He used it again in 1986 when I was listening to a game while coming from Cleveland to go to a SF con. I recall the person driving the car started laughing and had to pull the car over. She asked me, "He said what? Who is this guy?" The other people in the car stared at the radio in disbelief.
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1 hour ago, dudacek said:
I just don't trust Hutton with any more than 20 games next year.
One thing that puzzles me: Why does Hutton have such great stretches followed by such horrible ones? If we had some consistency out of him, it would be easier for the Sabres to deal with.
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1 hour ago, MattPie said:
Making up 6 points in 20 games sounds easy, but the simple math makes it look daunting. Toronto is on a 94-point pace thus far. I did the math over in the Simmonds thread, but the Sabres need to go 7-2-1 per 10 games for the remainder of the season to pass that. That's a game better than the recent hot streak. I don't think they'll hold that pace. If it were one team, maybe, but the cosmic billiard balls need to line up just right to have two teams flame out at the same time.
ESPN magazine had a list of the greatest amount of points made up after the All-Star break since 2005. It was 6 - by the 2010-1 Buffalo Sabres. Had they not had the injuries at the end of the season, the team to make up the most points after the TDL would have been 6 by the 2011-2 Buffalo Sabres; they were also 9 out after the ASB. 1 team was 5 out after the ASB and 1 team was 4 out after the TDL. Everyone else was closer.
Aside: had either the 2007-8 or 2008-9 Sabres made the playoffs, they would have been on these lists as well. So I guess, buckle up?
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Just now, Taro T said:
Umm, he actually did buy last year at the deadline. He got Montour. Which actually was a bigger/better buy than that from this morning's shopping trip.
I stand corrected.
I thought of that as more of a "hold", but yeah, you're right.
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This is just JNot's way of apologising for not buying last year. The potential good news is that it looks like JNot may be acknowledging the team's overall softness. Maybe.
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If the NHL had any brains, they would schedule a Chicago Black Hawks - Carolina Hurricanes Winter Classic where Scott Foster and David Ayers perform the ceremonial opening face-off. They could even riff off of Eleven's post: "Foster accounts for Ayers resurfacing."
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Who is replacing Botterill? No, really ...
in The Aud Club
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Norm Wullen could work the crowd into a frenzy. Along with the odd rink dimensions, funky boards, rattling glass, very cozy confines, ending home-and-home series at home, not to mention the team itself, the organist was part of the home ice advantage. He kept the crowd engaged when the game sagged. He often played "Halleluja" Chorus from Handel's "Messiah" on a Sabres' game-tying goal. "Ooh! Aah! Sabres on the Warpath!" when the Sabres took the lead. Just amazing.