GASabresIUFAN

For their analytics team and computer software. Instead analytics department.

He is a fine choice. Will LA want to trade him? Also what is the cost and are we on his 10 team NT list?

I don’t because Corsi and Fenwick tend to be too team dependent. Put a decent player on a good team his possession numbers usually improve, sometimes dramatically. Put the same player on a bad team and his numbers plummet. I also think they are looking for a player to fulfill a certain role. I think the player they want has to add scoring, but also kill penalties and have a physical game. It’s why I listed hits, pk time and d zone %.

Jenner should be significantly cheaper. He kind of looks like Laughton on paper. I'd take Kerfoot over both. Here is a comparison of guys in the 3 to 4 mill price range (plus the overpaid Gourde). Jenner, 31, Pts last season 35, PK TOI 101 minutes, Hits 119, LK 74, D Zone starts 48%, Face off % 54%, contract 2 years 3.75 per season Laughton, 30, Pts last season 39, PK TOI 140 minutes, Hits 155, BLK 56, D Zone starts 54%, Face off % 49, contract 2 years 3 per season Kerfoot, 30, Pts last season 45, PK TOI 214 minutes, Hits 73, BLK 76, D Zone starts 58%, Face off % 48, contract 1 years 3.5 per season Roy, 27, Pts last season 41, PK TOI 95 minutes, Hits 77, BLK 35, D Zone starts 58%, Face off % 47, contract 3 years 3 per season Gourde, 32, Pts last season 33, PK TOI 152 minutes, Hits 156, BLK 52, D Zone starts 58%, Face off % 48, contract 1 years 5.16 per season Bennett, 27, Pts last season 41, PK TOI 32 minutes, Hits 173, BLK 43, D Zone starts 35%, Face off % 46, contract 1 years 4 per season Domi, 29, Pts last season 47, PK TOI 0 minutes, Hits 53, BLK 22, D Zone starts 35%, Face off % 50, contract UFA (3 mill last season) Roslovic, 29, Pts last season 31, PK TOI 49 minutes, Hits 28, BLK 24, D Zone starts 55% (W CBJ), Face off % 45, contract UFA (4 mill last season)

If he is so bad defensively why has every Philly coach since 2017 used him about 58% of the time with D zone starts? If he is so bad defensively why was he 3rd on Philly with nearly 140 minutes of PK time? I’m not saying he’s Bergeron or Barkov. Honestly, I don’t know how good or bad he is, but his usage by Philly over the years is not reflective of a bad defensive player. Is Laughton my favorite choice for 3C? No, he’s not even in the top 10. I don’t like the suggested trade either, but if we end up with him, on a better deal, he is an upgrade over Krebs and a solid bridge until a prospect is ready for the role. At 3 mill per season he is a bargain choice and could be a solid 4th liner if Savoie or Kulich prove ready sooner than later. Again, this isn’t my ideal choice, but I understand the logic behind the suggestion.

How much do you think they paid?

Just looked at puckpedia.com. It’s going to take some time to figure out. Not sure if they have all the same tools. Oh well.

When I first started this thread there really didn't seem like many reasonable choices for the 3C role. However, people here and the media keep bringing up good possibilities that are giving me hope for a quality 3C addition this summer. I'm also glad we are moving away from the Gourde idea. The upper tier ideas I really like are Karlsson and Eriksson Ek. The stumbling block with Karlsson is his M-NTC, but maybe that's solvable. Eriksson Ek would be a very expensive get. I like both of these ideas over Cirelli. I also think Mohanan and Duchene would be good acquisitions, but I doubt they'd sign in Buffalo. Stephenson is also out there, but I doubt KA wants to invest in a long-term deal for a 30+ player. In the second tier - all of Kerfoot, Wennberg, Bennett, Laughton, and Roy look like good fits as well with Roy having the most upside beyond his 40 pts. Bennett might add some important leadership. I also don't think we can discount the possibility of a UFA like Roslovic or Domi.

According to capfriendly he has two years left @ 3 per season.

but very Adams. He gets to keep a 1st rd pick while still getting a viable 3C. He is a physical player, has been solid in the faceoff circle over his career, has 2 years left on a reasonable contract at $3 mill for a 40 pt player. He also has playoff experience. Overall not a bad choice. I also think he can probably keep the 11th and just trade Philly Rosen and a pick for him.

It’s more about the proven chemistry between Ek and Greenway.

Eichel, Dahlin, Reinhart?

There was a reason that he was 6th and in the 1st tier on my consensus draft board last year. I used 17 rankings last year and 15 had Benson ranked from 4 to 9, only Pronman (@LGR4GM's favorite) and my favorite Button had him outside the top 10. Pronman had him 17th and Button 14th.

The goal is to build 3 lethal scoring lines and the Cozens line would actually be the 2nd line, but it was easier to leave to the formatting the same. Quinn will get significant PT during the PP to utilize his O skills.

Fixed

What made Krebs a 1st rd pick was that his skating and passing skills made him an offensive catalyst at all levels up to the NHL. Even in the AHL Krebs had only 5 goals in 25 games while creating 20 assists. Taking a kid with that skill set and pigeon holing him as an energy forward with linemates who can't convert passes is a waste. To Krebs' credit he has embraced the role. He actually had over 100 hits last year. However, he isn't good at faceoffs, isn't good at takeways and doesn't block shots very well. He's just not a fit as a 4th line forward. He needs to be utilized where his playmaking skills can develop at the NHL level. That opportunity no longer exists in Buffalo.

I love the idea of Eriksson-Ek, and he maybe a better fit for the needs of the 2024 Sabres. He is certainly a better goal scorer and a more physical player, but Mitts is a a much better playmaker, and as he is two years younger than Ek, Mitts has yet to reach his full potential. I'm also not yet convinced that Byram is all that. The jury is still out, but he wasn't exactly good after the hot start. As to your comparison of Byram and Ek vs Mitts and prospects, it's a bit of a straw man. You have no idea whether KA would then turn those prospects into a top 4 D even if he choose to retain Mitts. Don't forget Ek still has 5 years at 5.25 per season. AFP projects Mitts at 5 years 5.9. We are not talking a great deal of savings here. What happens if we can't secure Bennett, Karlsson or Ek to anchor our 3rd line? Would be better off with Mitts and a top 4 D acquired with prospects or Byram and Kerfoot, Domi, Roslovic or Gourde?

I don't doubt KA is going to keep Krebs. I have projected that he'll re-sign him to a 2 year deal @1.25 per season in all my projections on capfriendly and here. Just because I think that is what KA will do doesn't make it a smart decision for Krebs or the Sabres. Krebs, IMHO, needs to an opportunity to play in the top nine on a developing team like SJ, CHI etc.... We don't fit that description anymore with potentially 8 of our top 9 forwards penciled in already with TNT, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Benson, JJP, Quinn, & Greenway (or Savoie if he makes the team). Krebs has already failed at the one open job (3C) and we can't afford to take the risk again in this must make the playoffs season.

His Q-offer is 2.6 and the AFP projections are about 3.3 for one year and over 4 for a multi-year deal. So no, I don't think he is worth keeping at any of these prices. Moving on from Joki and allowing Johnson to take the 3rd pair with Clifton saves the team 2.4. to 3 mill in cap which then can be utilized to build out an effective 4th line. He had his best year as a pro last season, but KA brought in Byram to be a top 4 D. Time for KA to cash in on that season and move him for the best offer he can get. We can't keep everyone.

I brought up previously Fla going for it by acquiring Bennett, Reinhart, Tkachuk and Montour. We are kind of in the same situation they were when they made those dramatic moves. I don't think we need to do anything that dramatic. We need the best 2/3C we can get to create 3 good scoring lines, a good 4C and at least one good stay at home D. But perfect. I'd give them 3 good pieces for him.

I looked that up as well. Sadly he hasn't built on that promise.

Exactly. There are at least a dozen UFAs that can give us what Krebs does but are more suited for a depth role. Guys like Amadio, Carrier, Blueger, Trenin etc… We don’t have the patience anymore to continue to wait for guys to develop. Mitts and TNT were lucky that they were here when we started from scratch and we had the time and inclination to let them develop slowly. We don’t have that luxury anymore. How long are we supposed to wait on Krebs to make the meaningful contribution when the playoffs are the objective now? Krebs reminds me of another 17th overall pick and that is Curtis Lazar. Not only can we find UFAs to replace Krebs more suited for a depth role. We also have a stockpile of prospects like Savoie, Rosen and Kulich who can come in and give us more than we got from Krebs. Savoie’s NHLe on his WHL season was 41 points. Kulich’s was 31 points and Rosen’s 30.

Why? Right now Krebs has been passed on the depth chart by Benson, JJP, Quinn and probably Savoie with Kulich hot on his heals. Had he developed as hoped he'd be in line to replace Mitts when Mitts was traded. Instead, he stunk in that role after the trade and now pretty much everyone agrees we need to bring in outside talent to replace Mitts. Where does that leave Krebs? Either on the 4th line or in the pressbox. If he still has value, trade him and give him a fresh start elsewhere before he becomes Asplund 2.0.

By the way John, this is where asset management comes in. You don't trade Johnson and then keep Jokiharju. Joki is going to cost about $4 mill per season for the next 3 to 4 years to keep. Why would you trade away Johnson to keep another big contract, especially when I'm not sure Joki is really that much better than Johnson? Joki is certainly not $3 mill better than Johnson.