GASabresIUFAN

https://theathletic.com/4777478/2023/08/16/nhl-atlantic-division-red-wings-senators-canadiens-sabres/ Fairburn’s projected lineup Skinner TnT Tuch JJP Cozens Mitts Greenway Krebs VO Z Jost KO Dahlin Samuelsson Power Clifton Johnson Joki Levi UPL (this looks familiar) 😉 Fairburn is predicting a trade of some D.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-the-sabres-might-solve-their-surplus-on-defense-before-the-season-begins/article_c99855f6-3789-11ee-8dad-c37e826a634f.html After reading this article, I’m thinking it may be time to move on from all of Bryson, Bush, Joki and Stillman.

Where is this hypothetical player from? If American and from Minn - Colorado, Minn, Det, NSH and Dallas If American and Mass - Colorado, Bos, TB, NSH and Pit if American and from Mich/Wis - Colorado, Det, Minn, NSH & Dallas if American and from NY (or other Eastern states besides Mass) - TB, NSH, Bos, Pit and Wash If Western Canadian - LV, Colorado, Sea, Dallas and Chicago If Eastern Canadian - NSH, TB, Boston, Pit and Det If European - TB, Det, LV, Colorado and Dallas If Russian - TB, Det, Wash, Dallas and Colorado

Honestly where would you want to play? 1. Eliminate all Canadian teams - high taxes and either small markets or insane pressure cookers. Add crappy weather 2. Eliminate all California, NY and NJ teams - high taxes, band wagon markets (see all California teams), a small mkt (Buffalo and NYI) or bad places to play (NYC and NJ). 3. Eliminate all remaining poorly managed franchises like CBJ, AZ, Chicago and Philly or apathetic fanbases like Fla. 4. I’d also eliminate Sea because what a depressing place to live. So who’s left? LV, Minn, Stl, Det, Bos, Nash, Car, TB, Pitt, Wash, Colo, and Dallas.

Wpg, AZ, and any California teams

The Sabres actually have 10 D and 4 goalies under contract (plus 14 forwards with Rousek). That’s 28 players for 23 jobs (27 once Quinn goes to IR). Somebody is getting waived or traded. Levi, JJP, Rousek and Power are the only relevant waiver exempt players. At this point 7 D are a lock (Dahlin, Power, Mule, Johnson, Clifton, Lyubushkin and Joki). That leaves Stillman (1.1 mill), Bryson (1.85) and Clague (.775) fighting for one spot assuming the Sabres keep 8 D. They won’t keep 9 unless someone gets hurt. The 4 goalies are Levi, UPL, Comrie and Tokarski. I’ve argued before Tokar is the best of the non-Levi goalies (but that’s not saying much). Houser and Cooley are the other organization goalies. I think the plan is Levi and UPL in Buffalo. Comrie and Tokarski in the A and Cooley and Houser in the ECHL. This plan allows the Sabres to keep 8 D and a 13th forward. Comrie and Tokarski would have to clear waivers, but Comrie’s 1.85 mill salary should keep him from being claimed.

4 weeks and counting.

I doubt they’ll keep both Comrie and UPL if Levi has a solid or better camp. The plan is Levi is the starter and then let the chips fall where they may for the backup. Loser of the camp battle for the backup job gets waived or traded. They brought back Houser and more importantly Tokarski as insurance. If Levi struggles in camp, management could send him down and allow Comrie and UPL to start the season. This is admittedly a very unlikely scenario. Levi would have to be awful for this to happen and I sincerely doubt Levi would let it happen. The more I think about it, and after looking at the forward depth in Rochester, I think Rousek is likely to make the Sabres out of camp.

You don't think they'll carry 13 forwards?

I wrote in the lineup thread that I didn't think Rousek would make the team out of camp, but if Buffalo moves on from the 3 headed goalie monster, I now see a slot for him as the 13th forward. I don't think he has anything left to prove in the AHL and at 24 it's time to transition to the NHL. I also don't think he's needed in Rochester any longer. They have vets Mersch, Jobst, Warren, and Richards, plus young vets like Biro, Murray, and Weissbach to go with a solid group of prospects in Kulich, Rosen, Neuchev, Kisakov, Novak, Cedarqvist, and Nadeau, That's 14 quality forwards without Rousek. Rousek proved he could play in the NHL even in a tiny sample size with 2 pts in 2 games and never looked out of place. The Sabres also signed him to a multi-year deal, so it's clear that management has some faith in him. This is Dobber's summary of Rousek. https://dobberprospects.com/player/lukas-rousek/ We know he has decent hands from his time in Rochester. He also seems like a leader by example. All effort all the time. He sounds like an ideal 3/4th player. He isn't the biggest guy (5'11"), but he doesn't play small. I honestly see him as KO's replacement after this season and an injury fill-in up and down the lineup this season. Thoughts?

Yes. I think the top 6 in Buffalo is set and I'd rather Kulich play big minutes in all situations than in a depth role in Buffalo. Not the only one, but it's a shrinking minority.

The opening night roster is already signed and here unless an injury occurs in camp. Skinner TnT Tuch JJP Cozens Mitts VO Krebs Greenway Z Jost KO Dahlin Mule Power Clifton Johnson Jokiharju (Stillman Lyubushkin) Levi UPL waived - Bryson, Clague and Comrie. first callups - Rousek, Biro and Kulich Lyubushkin becomes a starter if there is a camp injury on D, Rousek if a forward goes down and Comrie if a goalie gets hurt. Benson and Savoie return to Jrs to get stronger. R. Johnson and Kulich have great camps and are the last cuts.

Those you can play. Those who can’t teach. PS: DG’s playing career ended with a two year stint in the ECHL. He played 4 years at Wisconsin and won a National Championship there.

Except FL, all those teams were out West. Florida, despite mediocre goaltending, still had a team .896 to our .890 and allowed 27 fewer goals than the Sabres last season. The Western teams gave up 256, 257 and 260 GA. We gave up 300. I don't think dropping it to 280 GA will be good enough. The goal needs to be dropping it to 260 and I don't think we are there with the goalies we have.

I'm not sure I agree with that assertion. The Atlantic and the East in general are a crap shoot and we have the least proven and honestly worst goaltending of any of the contenders for a playoff spot. There are no guarantees that offense will be as prolific as last year. Toronto's offense, for example, fell from 315 GF in 21/22 to 279 in 22/23. I'd even argue that Mon has better goaltending on paper than we do. I've shown the stats before, but historically 21-year-old goalies don't fare well in the NHL. Very few ever play 40+ games and only MAF, Price and Steve Mason played 50+ and we need Levi to play 50 and play well for this plan of KA's to work. This team has to cut about 40 goals from their GA to ensure a playoff spot, especially if the offense isn't as prolific. I don't believe right now that KA's changes are enough to accomplish that goal without Levi playing at a very high level. Levi playing at a .900 save %, which would be a strong rookie campaign, likely won't be enough.

This is very optimistic. It would be nice to think the offense would be as prolific as last year and cover up for the terrible goaltending of UPL and Comrie. It is also optimistic that a 21 year old rookie goalie would be that productive so early in his career. Not saying it’s impossible, but unlikely. The more likely scenario is that UPL wins the camp battle with Comrie. Comrie gets waived and Tokarski plays 8-10 games as an injury fill in. The teams best hope for all the net minders is that the team tightens up on defense (forwards and D) and suppresses the goals against by 20 goals 5on 5 and that the PK also improves suppressing another 10 GA.

The Truth is out There.

TM tried to fix an entire roster by that method. I’m talking about about moving one or two prospects to fill one roster hole. Apples and oranges my friend.

https://theathletic.com/4763819/2023/08/11/best-pro-hockey-players-not-nhl/ The Athletic’s 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL by Allan Mitchell and look who is No.2 on his list.

Considering that the vast majority of goalies, starters and good backups, are traded for less than a 1st, I think Östlund or Rosen could easily get a legit goalie for the Sabres or at worst be the key piece of a package to get one. The most expensive recent goalie trade was Colorado’s acquisition of Kuemper for a late 1st and Clague level prospect Connor Timmins (66 career NHL games). Kuemper had one year left on his contract when acquired (@ $4.5). Kuemper backstopped the Avs to the Cup if memory serves and then walked.

The above article is exactly why we can and should move on from some of the forward prospects to fix holes in the NHL roster. Trading an Östlund or a Rosen to get a legit partner for Levi is the right thing to do and should be done. KA is taking a huge and unnecessary risk for a playoff contender by relying on 3 goalies with a collective total of 100 games of NHL experience. Another point, when you look at the Sabres prospect pool how many of these guys are you sure will play 100+ NHL games (50+ for goalies)? Right now I think Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Levi are the only ones we can "guarantee" will reach that point. Could others? Absolutely, but it's probably only 6 or 7 more (which would still be an amazing result). Östlund and Rosen top this next tier (obviously), then Johnson, Novikov, Wahlberg, and Neuchev would top my list of most likely to have NHL careers. After this group, some guys may carve out careers, but valuing them too highly is a mistake and one we have all made. Remember the hype around Bailey(82 games) and Baptiste (47 games)? TM liked Hudson Fasching (87 games - 49 came last year) so much that he gave away McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for him. How did that work out?

We got Stl's 3rd best prospect in the ROR deal. He turned out OK. By the way Rosen is probably on a similar level with the Pens top prospect Owen Pickering. Östlund is certainly better. I was going to post this as a new thread, but it seems to fit here as well. As Sabres fans, besides adding a real goalie, what would you have done differently this summer? I would not have brought back Girgensons and Jost. I know Z has many fans on this board, but really he is a very replaceable player. Same Jost. IMHO for Jost to have received a contract for us he would have needed to show and he can kill penalties and win a draw. He does neither well. DG tried him on PK and his PK diminished to zero over the course of the season as did his PT. He also had a FO % of 38. I don't understand bringing him back when someone like Pius Suter was available (and still is) who can be had for less $ and is a PK specialist and can add some offense 5 on 5. As to Z, I think the only reason he lasted so long here was the constant turnover of GMs. He was relatively cheap to keep and for the most part during his tenure winning wasn't the priority. Now that winning is a priority, I think the Sabres could find a physical depth winger who might actually be able to play up if needed. To some extent, I was kind of hoping that they would let Z walk and leave the spot somewhat open for Rousek to win in camp. A 4th line of Rousek, Suter and KO may not be a traditional checking line, but they would certainly bring energy every shift. On defense, my only complaint is that Clifton is unproven in a top 4 role, but I think it's a reasonable risk on KA's part. If we have to lineup Johnson and Cliftion as the 3rd pair, that is still a substantial upgrade over last year's 3rd pairing mess.

Danny played a lot of wing for us as well. I’d be surprised if Strbak and Panocha don’t make their teams. I see Savoie as a winger for the Sabres.

This except Rousek isn’t going to beat out VO to start the season. I wouldn’t mind if KA gave Comtois a one year prove it deal for added depth.

I've been playing the immaculate grid with a twist. For the guys who played for teams x&y, I'm also looking for a guy who also played for the Sabres. For example today's puzzle has a slot for a player who played for CBJ and CGY. I put in Jordan Leopold who played for those franchises plus the Sabres. In an odd way, it makes the puzzles easier as you start with the limiting factor of guys who played for the Sabres. I'm doing the same for the baseball one with current and former Braves.