JoeSchmoe

Go to Elite Prospects and look at the college rosters. You'll see very few 2006's. On the other hand, you'll see a lot of guys who by virtue of their age, wouldn't have started until they were 20. FWIW, my son just went through it, and this was the talk amongst the parents. Edit- If you really want to see this in action, look up NCAA rosters where they don't get future NHL calibre players. Niagara and Canisius are good examples. Here are the ages of the Niagara Freshman: 2004, 2003, 2004, 2004, 2004, 2003, 2003 D1 schools want men not boys unless the boy is capable of playing pro.

They'll still want them. Unless they're superstars, NCAA freshmen are usually 20+ years old.

It's Helenius' first year in NA too and he's doing good, despite being 2 years younger.

My son's friend has an NCAA commitment. The OHL team that drafted him begged him to go there instead, but he couldn't say no as the school is one of the top programs both on the ice and academically. So he moved from Ontario to BC this winter to play in the BCHL while he waits to mature enough to play D1. Had this rule came a year sooner, he'd have stayed in Ontario and played OHL. As you said, Tier 2 Jr A is definitely going to lose out big with this. There is no reason for high end kids to play there anymore.

I haven't zeroed in on him, but I think it's good that I haven't really noticed him... Other than when he was keeping Tkachuk honest. As a defensive D, being invisible is a good thing. Samuelsson has had it too easy. Hopefully some time off will light a fire under him. Mind you he already got his money so maybe he doesn't care.

The 2nd line looks good so far!

Obviously my initial post was TLDR. I cover that in the post. "The stat does not track shooting skill, so players like Thompson, Olofsson, Matthews, etc will be underrepresented by this stat given they do a better job of putting pucks away"

My son is playing Jr C right now. They're allowed to play a year longer there. That's what had me crossed up.

Yeah, you're right. I forgot OHL was 20 not 21.

Not counting the superstars, it's common that NCAA hockey players don't start college until 2 years after graduating high school. With the new supply of potential players... I'm betting you'll see them starting 3 or 4 years after high school now.

5 and 7 have two of the worst actual goal % on the team. In 5's case, the algorithm says he should be a +1 based on scoring chances for and against but he's actually a -5.

Östlund

Nice to see Helenius producing right out of the gate as an 18yo... Unlike the two Swedes where we have to keep them four years without trading them only to figure out they're no good. 😉

I haven't updated this in a while and thought I'd post. I threw the last xG% chart in the Byram thread so I won't repost that. Here's the team 5 on 5 xG%. We're still clipping along at a bubble playoff pace. If Cozens and Quinn ever get it together, and the goaltending does their part... Maybe, just maybe...

I said it in the gameday thread last night, but the Thompson line is playing "keep you on the edge of your seat hockey" as they did 2 years ago. I might be exaggerating but every shift it seems one of them does something to make you say holy 💩 .

Here's an update... Cozens has overtaken Byram as the defacto worst player on the team when looking at relative expected goals. What's interesting though, is even though Byram got the 2 goals last night, he was still a net negative xG% player across the entire game at 35.1%. The Sens goal he coasted in on (not picking up his man) probably cost him. Anyhow... Enjoy the new thread title.

I'll update the thread and title tomorrow. He was still terrible on the goal against, but Cozens, Quinn, and possibly a few others may be competing for that coveted #1 spot.

Let's go Buffalo!

They're going to lose if they keep sitting back like this.

Win or lose, the Thompson line is worth the price of admission.

I'd almost feel sorry for COL if they hadn't won a cup in the last 3 years.

It's true that Mittelstadt looks like a net negative on COL, and it's true it matters who your linemates are. There is some art between the math of it all to figure out the devil behind the details. All that said, you can't do relative xG% between different teams. The off-ice expected goals varies from team to team. The whole purpose of that stat is to compare you to the rest of your team to see what kid of impact you have when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice relative to your teammates... not the whole league. Edit: In Mittelstadt's case, his xG% shows he's over 50 which is okay... But when he's off the ice, the team is even better. If he's not playing at the same time as MacKinnon and Makar, that would make sense.

True, but thankfully we don't have a 16 game season like Bill Parcels did. If our underlying metrics are ok, we're still in it this early in the season.

😅. Cozens already cashed his tickets at the prize desk, but Quinn's looking at the plastic comb.

If you look at all the team stats, GF%, exGF%, shot%, etc, we're just above the first half of the league. We're better than our record.