Curt
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Posts posted by Curt
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10 minutes ago, French Collection said:
You are right about them not being far apart. Cozens is a better goal scorer but Mitts is a better passer. Cozens is a better skater but Mitts is becoming a beast along the boards. They were drafted in similar ranges.
Mitts has better wingers and that line can hem in another team with their size and board work. I see Cozens line as a more dangerous rushing unit.
DG might be more strategic this year in deploying his three scoring lines for matchups and allocate ice time to the hot hands. This balance will create internal competition for ice time too.
I agree. Just a random thought to add on. I hope Cozens is able to fill out more over the next few years. He has sort of a slight/lean frame so it may be tough for him, but if he is 6’3” 195 right now and can get to say 210, he would be a real beast. He has the mentality to take advantage of it too.
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1 hour ago, nfreeman said:
If Cozen's and Mitt's lines really are:
JJP-Cozens-VO
Greenway-Mitts-Tuch
...then Cozens' line is probably going to play less than Mitts' line, unless JJP and Cozens have both taken major steps in their defensive games.
This seems like an odd result, although DG has clearly and frequently stated that he really likes Mitts.
Yeah, it seems odd intuitively but I think that they really do have a very high opinion of Mitts. Two years ago he was slated to be the 1C before getting hurt to start the season, then he didn’t get healthy until March. Then last season, he played really well in a variety of positions and he was the one who they gave a chance on the 1st line when there was an opportunity, not Cozens, and it worked pretty well.
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7 hours ago, Buffalonill said:
Didn't she just break up with brandon hagel this girl Travels
No. I don’t think so.
EDIT: Also, two sentences, no punctuation, first and last words capitalized. Well done. Lol
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5 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:
Missing Östlund. Fits in more prominently than at least 7 of the forwards listed.
If Dahlin is not signed for 7/8 years in the $10-11m…and Owen takes a bridge like Ras, you can sign Joki to an extension. Want to see to see his growth this year but I could see them trying to keep the band together.
Sadly, some guys just won’t pan out.
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9 hours ago, bg17 said:
She’s got no shot.
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3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Oh I know, way too many variables, but this consolidation trade idea has me interested. What do you mean by that? My feeling is that at some point we have to bundle a few prospects/picks together for one shinier new toy, perhaps at a different position. Is that what you mean?
As for free agents, well things might change, but we haven't shown much in that department with big names (big salaries). The future could be different.
Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly what I mean by consolidation trade. Take 2-4 assets that are maybes and turn them into one asset that is much more of a certainty.
As for FA’s, even if they don’t go ever go after big FA’s, there will be other mid level guys (like Clifton) who get signed for somewhat significant money and term.
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3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
Got a definitive legend to the chart (shades/colors, mostly, but also assumptions/projections) for quick reference?
Most of it is intuitive, but still.
Only in my mind, lol.
Um, ELCs are white, contracts already signed are green, projected contracts are orange.
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3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
So you're projecting here that Owen Power accepts 7 years @8.5 per? Don't think his team will seek something more in the 4-6 range like a super bridge? I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal. Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise.
A lot of questions here. I’ll address them one by one.
1) So you're projecting here that Owen Power accepts 7 years @8.5 per?
Yup
2) Don't think his team will seek something more in the 4-6 range like a super bridge?I don’t know what Power will seek. I wouldn’t call anything more than 4 years a bridge, though.
3) I don't think a #1 overall pick defenseman, who looks the part, would ever sign for such a long, team-friendly deal.
Well, you be wrong in thinking that it would never happen because it’s happened in the recent past. There are 18 current NHL top-5 pick defensemen who have signed past their ELC, 9 of them signed for 6+ years, and the guys who were higher end players signed for long term more often. The guys who didn’t sign long term off their ELC mostly signed 2-3 yr bridge deals before signing for longer term after. It’s a mixed bag but the idea of a highly drafted, high end young defenseman signing long term off their ELC has plenty of precedent.
4) Is the thinking that there's some kind of discount for doing it now rather than later? Doesn't much compute, otherwise.
I actually don’t understand this question. Could you expand on this?
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2 minutes ago, sweetlou said:
I think Tuch will be in the $7-8 million range, and be the next captain.
Could certainly happen. If he keeps putting up 70+ point seasons, then it surely will. I’m kind of guessing that last season was a bit of an outlier and he is more of a 50-65 point guy, with some injuries, going forward.
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2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Some generous paydays for a few. So I guess you are fully convinced Mitts and Quinn are the real deal? Also, you are sold on Levi before you even plays a season. I guess you are an optimist. Quinn at 6 seems crazy to me but maybe he will be that guy. We shall see. If Mitts is 3C, that to me is around 4.5 not 6. You're also a big Greenway fan. He has to show me a lot more before I pay him more than 2.
This isn’t a will and testament. It’s a projection. It’s a bunch of guesses. Mostly for fun, but also to demonstrate a general overview of Buffalo’s cap situation moving forward.
There are so many prospects that I think it’s a near guarantee that a couple of them pop. Switch the names around if you like.
But, just to address your comments, for fun:
If Mitts is once again put in a position to put up 55+ points, he is going to get ~$6M. Whether it’s in Buffalo or somewhere else. If he is stapled onto the 3rd line and puts up 40 something, it will be less.
Quinn and Levi, yeah, I’m just projecting continued development and that they will be good. Same with Benson.
Greenway, I’m kind of projecting that he gets back to being pretty good like was a couple years ago, but I have no idea if he will, I hope so.
On the flip side I’m projecting Krebs, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Jokiharju, Strbak, McCarthy to not really be long term significant pieces. Some will, some won’t, I don’t really know which are which.
In reality this won’t be close. There will probably a consolidation trade or two at some point and also FA signings taking the places if some of these prospects. The names aren’t as significant as the numbers for contracts that aren’t signed yet.
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12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
To some extent that's true, but at this point, with a big prospect pool, maybe they need to look at style and what guys project to be over just speed and skill? I mean if we get to the draft next year and the BAP is a 5'10 little center with skill and a few picks down in ranking is a big 2 way guy who has comparables to say a ROR or some other similar maybe that's the guy we take instead.
So not solely drafting for need, but maybe a bias in that direction.
I feel like in the 2023 draft they did that with every pick except the 1st round. It was all big strong forwards or defensemen, with a goalie sprinkled in.
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2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Those HFBoards are garbage. Full of kids who know nothing and lots of trolls who just hate everything. You want a real laugh go check out the Flyers version.
Kyle Okposo was making 6 mil here for 11 goals last year. About 30 pts. a year on average. We offered him up another 3 million and everybody went yay the captain's back. By comparison, also adding what Foligno brings in terms of physicality, how is this contract not okay?
It’s the term, not the dollars. They feel like they gave him a fair salary, but too many years, and an MNTC on top of it. They think if there was going to be so much term, there shouldn’t have been any trade protection, or if they were going to give trade protection, then the term should have been less. Especially for a deal being given out a year early.
Comparing Okposo’s one year deal to this 4 year deal doesn’t really fly.
Also, in a vacuum, it’s probably an okish deal, but their team is carrying $15 in dead cap space for the next couple seasons, and the fan base is concerned that Guerin is going to keep them perpetually cap hamstrung for the foreseeable future with deals like this.
It’s not the worst deal ever but there are definitely reasons not to like it.
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8 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:
(Mitts can't be re-signed if he has another 55+ point season because he'll be a $7M on the open market.)
Disagree here. Sabres can afford Mitts on a $6-7M contract. If Quinn and/or Peterka have a big breakout of sorts in the next two years and earn a big contract, it could necessitate a difficult decision down the road. But there is no guarantee that either of those guys ends up as good as Mitts; and Thompson, Cozens, Mitts is one heck of a C spine.
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20 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Why? It's not like we're talking an 8 year deal. Just a season or two to demonstrate that the tide has turned. You get the homeboy speaking about how great it is we become a destination not a place to avoid. Regardless of the practicalities, symbols and images do matter.
Do many people in Buffalo actually like Patrick Kane a lot? Honest question.
I mostly see people from the area dragging him because he has publicly represented the area pretty poorly throughout his career.
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Ok everyone, I got the image uploaded. Not sure why it wouldn’t work last night. Enjoy.
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I have an interest tracking and projecting the Sabres future cap situation. I did this exercise last offseason as well, and I’ve gone through and updated it.
The Sabres situation is interesting right now. In some ways they are very locked into their core players, in other ways they have tons of flexibility around the edges. Its interesting just trying to predict how things will develop.
Obviously this is no where near how things will go. There will be more free agent role players and fewer prospects who make it. By projecting Mitts, Tuch, Quinn and Levi for largish long term contracts as well as a star breakout, and equivalent contract, for Benson, I tried to demonstrate how the Sabres could accommodate a few additional big salaries in addition to those that we already expect (Skinner, Tage, Cozens, Dahlin, Power)
Anyway, this is mostly for fun, so enjoy!
Click on the image for a clearer view.
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1 hour ago, Taro T said:
How a player's age is defined depends upon which portion of the CBA one is concerned with. A player's age at the signing of his 1st contract is determined by his age on September 15 of the calendar year he signs the contract.
For eligibility for a contract to slide a year, an 18 yo and a 19 yo are determined by their age on September 15 of the year they sign a contract and only NHL games count towards that 10 game threshold to count as a season for the ELC. But for a "19 yo" that's really 20 (because of the late birthday) the contract won't slide.
For purposes of FA, it depends upon which category of FA you are looking at whether an 18 or 19 yo with 10 games of pro experience accrues a year or if he needs to be on an active roster for 40 games to accrue a year. And even then it can vary as for Group 2 FA (restricted FA's) the player only earns the experience for playing in the NHL BUT when that 19 yo turns 20 (including those guys with late September and on birthdays), any professional games count towards the 10 game threshold to count as a season for
the ELCrestricted free agency.1 hour ago, Taro T said:And in regards to whether Levi is 21 or 22 this season, he's 21 in 2023 as far as the league is concerned. And he's 22 in 2024 as far as the league is concerned.
Not saying you are wrong or anything, it’s just really weird, and the NHL’s classifications here aren’t really meant to be a guide on a player’s age during a certain season.
Case in point, any player born in late September or early October will not play a single at their age for the season.
For example, Jack Quinn turned 22 a week and a half ago. Should we really call this his age 21 season? Even though he will be 22 for every single game? Doesn’t make any sense to me. I go by Hockey Reference’s classification, which uses a Jan 31 cut off date.
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28 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:
What we've learned from camp and the offseason is the Sabres like to gamble.
The biggest complaint I have with the roster is that we're asking Devon Levi to win the Calder. He's the clear starter at this point. He's going to need to play 55 or more games--more than he has ever played in a season--and play each game as the well-above-average goalie he is believed to be. That's a tall order for any goalie, much less a rookie.These are the only goalies to even play in 40 or more NHL games before their age 22 season since 2005:
- Steve Mason: Played 61 games his age 20 season, 58 games his age 21 season. Worth mentioning he was only called up because of injury. He just kept the job. Even CBJ didn't intend to start him in the NHL at age 20.
- Carey Price: 20 NHL (20 AHL) games his age 20 season, 52 games his age 21 season
- Carter Hart: 31 NHL (18 AHL) games his age 20 season, 43 games his age 21 season
- Spencer Knight: 4 NHL / 21 college games his age 19 season, 32 NHL + 11 AHL games his age 20 season, 21 NHL and 2 AHL games his age 21 season.
- MAF: 21 NHL games at age 19. None age 20 (54 AHL but also a lockout). 50 NHL and 12 AHL games age 21.
- Vasilevski: 25 AHL, 16 NHL at age 20. 12 AHL, 24 NHL at age 21.
The only goalies to play 50+ games in an age 21 or earlier season are MAF, Steve Mason and Carey Price--and all those happened before Levi was 8 years old. Most recently Carter Hart played 43 in his 21 year old season, but he at least played 31 games in the NHL the year prior. Levi played 7 NHL games last season (plus 34 college).
Levi is forced into the role of starting goalie. This isn't a 1A/1B situation. This is a clear starter and backup situation. If we define a starter/backup as 50+ games, we're looking at a total of only 16 goalies in the NHL last season and 17 the year prior. Of 32 teams in the league, only half had a goalie starting 50 or more games.
If we look at goalies playing the more realistic 55+ games, it's now 12 in 22-23 and 12 in 21-22.
Worse still, there's going to be ~27 games where the backup isn't clear--and, unfortunately, t's not clear for positive reasons.
Comrie played 11 games before injured. In those 11 games, Comrie went 4-7-0 and had a .887 SV% and a 3.45 GAA--he also had the worst GSAx in the league at one point. Across all 19 games of the season, he had a .886 SV% and a 3.67 GAA. Comrie had two great games on the road trip and then his game fell off and he was injured. It's possible he was simply tired and not ready for a starting workload.
When he returned from injury, he was actually the second best goalie from January on for Buffalo--second only in GSAx to Devon Levi. I was honestly surprised when I learned that. He posted a 5-2-1 record.
What's even crazier is that he managed to be the second best goalie in Buffalo with regards GSAx despite giving up 10 goals in one game on 49 shots to Dallas. Sweet baby Jesus. Without the Dallas game, he had a .905 SV% and a 2.85 GAA when he returned from injury. If we add the Dallas game in, he had a 3.75 GAA and a .884 SV%.
UPL was the rookie of the month in January after going 6-2-1 with a 3.05GAA and a .907 SV%. He went 6-2-0 in December with a 3.12 GAA and .908 SV%.
In November he was 1-1-1 with a 4.33 GAA and an .845 SV%.
Then February he was 2-3-0 with a 4.2 GAA and an .858 SV% including getting pulled in a game against Toronto 12:09 into the game after giving up 4 on 10 shots.
March was a 3.96 GAA (when adjusting for coming in to relieve Craig Anderson in a game) and a .879 SV%. He was 1-3-2 in the month.
And he played one game in April with a .929 SV% and 3 goals against to go 1-0-0.
I realize it's the complaint shared by most here and I'm just restating the obvious but it still needs to be said. It's not doubting that Levi isn't a future NHL goalie. It's just the question of whether we're wasting a year of the "window" on what would normally be the first (of typically many) growth/development season for a young goalie.
We are gambling that an untested 21 year old goalie can do something that's essentially unheard of in today's NHL and would justifiably earn him the Calder Trophy.
Lets break down the best case scenario: Levi can handle a starting load and Eric Comrie is a good goalie, but can only handle a load typical for a backup. UPL is inconsistent and is waived because blowing a roster spot on three goalies is brutal.
Eric Comrie is probably the best backup goalie we have, but after he returned from injury last season, he only played in 8 of 37 games. And, absent one absolutely atrocious game from both him and the entire team, he was at least consistent in net. But playing in 8 of 37 over an 82 game season means he gets 18 starts. Do we expect Levi to start 64 games? That's how Winnipeg used him. Winnipeg also had Demko as a starter and not a 21 year old rookie.
We don't have a backup plan because our best backup is Eric Comrie--who might honestly be absolutely fine as a backup goalie--who isn't a starting goalie. If he doesn't work, we are forced to run with an inconsistent UPL. The same goalie who dropped some important games last season at a time when we needed them most--games that were important because of a stretch in November where Comrie dropped a bunch of games.
In short, this team makes the playoffs if Levi wins the Calder. If Levi doesn't win the Calder, it's going to be another lost season.
No pressure kid.
Not that this invalidates your overarching point, but Devon Levi will be in his age 22 season this season, not his age 21 season.
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22 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
Imo, hockey players' weight is consistently over-stated. Benson might have weighed 170# at some point in time. But he'd definitely be in the 160# range once a season got rolling and would probably struggle to stay at or above 160# as a season wore on. For a period of several years, I would periodically have to walk through/around a visiting NHL team as they were preparing to board their local bus (coach) (~5 times a season). It always amazed me how skin and bones those guys are.
Sure, but that is a league wide thing, and doesn’t affect Benson in particular relative to the rest of the league.
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9 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
Zach Benson is 18 years old and 159 lbs sopping wet. Come back to earth.
I mean, he was officially weighed at 170 lbs at the draft combine, but whatever.
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On 9/18/2023 at 9:23 PM, Weave said:
I think there almost has to be several of these kids that get moved. We’ve acquired a bunch of prospects that all fit a role that is primarily top 6 or middle 6 scoring.
My only real criticism of the prospects we’ve acquired is, where are the role players? Where is the Mike Grier, Vaclav Varada, Paul Gaustad? Is there a TJ Compher? Or Foligno? Dave Bolland? We’ll need to move some of the high skill, high octane that we have to properly fill out a roster with the role players a well balanced team needs.
Too bad Pekar didn’t have what it takes.
Sabres Role Player type forward prospects:
Wahlberg, Rousek, Nadeau, Poltapov, Cederqvist, Kozak, Miedema
Those are just the guys who seem destined for a career in that type of role. They have plenty of role player prospects.
There are also a bunch of guys who are real top-6 hopefuls who could transition to a bottom 6 role.
Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Krebs, maybe Östlund, to name a few.
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14 hours ago, LabattBlue said:
Not sure what fancy stats they are referencing, but holy cow! Excerpt from an Athletic team preview of the Sabres…
We’ll be quick about this: Thompson, for all his offensive gifts, could be one of the least effective defensive players in the league. Like, bottom five. Sixth from the basement, specifically. One team analyst compared his play to the legendary Alex Ovechkin/disconnected Xbox controllerGIF.
Thompson’s overall projected Defensive Rating is, in fact, below 38-year-old Ovechkin’s. It’s below Patrick Kane’s. It’s also too close to too many of his teammates’ — Skinner, JJ Peterka, Cozens and Henri Jokiharju are all in the bottom 30 as well, among waves of Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets. For a team with playoff aspirations, that’s a terrible sign. Granato is a good coach who seems to be facing a clear challenge: getting his team to tighten up in one end, at least a little, without sacrificing its identity. Given their other year-over-year improvements, it’s possible. It’s also necessary, especially in an Atlantic Division featuring a couple of other on-the-rise teams.
This is interesting but like you, I wonder what metrics were actually being used.
I really think that a lot of this is coaching, and I don’t mean that in a negative way. Granato has referenced before that he was at first purposely coaching the team in a way as to focus primarily on generating offense, and that he then was shifting to tighten up the defensive side of their game.
The implication was that, with such a young group, it was too much to try to coach them produce offense, play good defense, keep their confidence up, and learn to adjust to the NHL all at the same time.
By focusing on offense, they were able to keep confidence up, find their way in the league, and make strides in terms of results.
Towards the end of last season, over the last 25 games or so, I think you could see the team put more focus on their defensive play and make some improvements there.
This sort of step by step implementation of strategies is sometimes used by coaches when trying to make major changes within a team and build up towards success. I don’t hear it spoken about that much in hockey, but in soccer it’s a pretty common concept and refereed to as “tactical periodization”. Basically implementing layers of tactics one at a time, over a certain period of time.
I think that’s what Granato is doing.
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
That’s a place to start, but it’s not 2 way play in the NHL. I’ll reserve judgement on his 2 way play until we see him in the NHL. Cozens was know for his two way play and he is struggling with that piece of his game.
That’s fair. I was just sharing info.
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34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
Based on what? He has played 2 pre-season games against Ahlers, Prospects and a couple of NHLers.
I seem to remember he was voted best defensive forward in the WHL in a coaches poll, but I’m not finding it now. He was definitely lauded by multiple scouting sources as one of the best (sometimes straight up the best) defensive forwards in the draft.
Sabres' lines 10/3/2023
in The Aud Club
Posted
Thanks, that’s good!