[We need to talk about Zach Benson making the team this year, 2023]

35 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

This is shocking to me.

Regular season is several notches up from pre-season.   

We'll find out right away if he can elevate his pace of play.   

I still believe the best place for him right now is juniors... if Quinn was healthy, he'd have been sent back already.

Giving him 3rd or 4th line minutes isn't best for his development.

Looks like he will be part of a pretty balanced middle 6.

JJP-Cozens-VO

Greenway-Mitts-Benson

I think those lines look pretty equal.

[Around the NHL 2023 Summer Edition]

55 minutes ago, Ducky said:

 

54 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Can we see Schiefle’s for comparison?

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

35 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Ya, what he said......

Where did all those Peter puffers go? No one defending?

Hey, he broke the Eichel trade!

But seriously, Peters is not a journalist.  He has connections in NHL circles so he sometimes hears or asks people about certain things, but he is not out there doing his due diligence, verifying information through multiple sources or anything like that.  He’s just a guy who knows some people.  Just take him for who he is.  Sometimes he’ll be right.  Sometimes he won’t.  No sense in getting mad at him about it. (Not saying you are, but some people do.)

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

13 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Didn't like his defensive game either, but had higher hopes for him based on him being more highly touted. Also he started a year younger, played for a far worse team, and was put into much higher leverage situations given there was no one else really besides him.

Edit: I would have taken 7 or 7.5mill a season over 8 years when he signed his bridge deal. 

My issue is just that, if you see Power as a guy who will be worth $8-9M (in today’s money) in a few years, and you bridge him.  3-4 years from now, that $8-9M is going to be $9.5-10.5M because of the cap increases.

For me, if you can sign him to an 8 year extension under $9M, I probably pull the trigger on that.

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

From what I've seen of Power so far, I project him being worth about $8 or 9 million a season when he peaks. His draft class was seen as weak overall, and in most years he might have been in the 3 to 6 OA slot. 

My opinion is it's only his #1 OA pick that has him projected in the $11M ballpark. 

If starts using his size defensively, and greatly improves his shot, I can be proven wrong. Given he still played smaller than what he is in college, I'm thinking he doesn't have the big dog mentality in him.

Semi related question.  What was your opinion of Dahlin after his second season?

Young players improve.  Some of the most common areas of improvement are strength, defensive zone details, and shot.

[Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections]

10 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

What percentage of the current cap is Dahlin‘s deal? I guess I should clarify… The projected cap next year when Dahlin‘s deal kicks in is what I’m asking.

and what is TNT, Muel, and Skinner projected cap percentage?

 

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

At an estimated cap of $88 million next year, capfriendly says Dahlin is at 13.17%

TNT is 8.6, Skinner 10.8 and Mule 5.1% for this year.

Capfriendly lists the cap % based on the cap at the time of signing.

Dahlin’s contract is 13.17% of the current cap, 83.5, but it is 12.5% of the 88M cap projected for next season.

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

6 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Two comments...

1 Even though I'm happy he's signed, this one may set a precedent amongst the players and the days of us getting team friendly deals like the last 3 big ones might be over. 

2 I'm not signing any long term contracts with Power until he shows he can play better defense. Picking up the defensive side of the game can take a few years for a young D, but I wouldn't want to take the risk given what I've seen of him so far. He needs to work on his shot too.

If you want to get team friendly deals like you described in 1, you need to do what you say what you don’t want to do in 2.  You need to make bets on player projection.

Thompson, Cozens, and Samuelsson hadn’t proven that they were worth those contracts when they signed them.  Adams made those deals because he believed that they would be.

So you could probably sign Power long term for $8.5-9M right now, or sign him to a lesser bridge deal, then sign him long term for $11M three years from now.

 

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

11 minutes ago, repster said:

Any thoughts on the implications for Owen Power’s next contract?

I honestly don’t think that Dahlin’s deal has any real implications on Power’s next contract.  They are in very different situations.

[Sabres Sign Dahlin to an 8 Year 88 Million Dollar Extension]

Ok.  It’s $0.5M more than I expected, but if it’s going to be a tad high then I’m glad that it is 8 instead of 7 or 6.  That was probably just the cost of getting him locked up for the full 8 years.  I think he is the future captain.

Dahlin under contract for 9 more seasons!  Woo hoo!

[Amerks Will Be a Wagon This Season]

23 hours ago, French Collection said:

I don’t know many kids named Jim and Fred, lol.

Short for Jaymes and Frydrych

[A little NHL trivia...]

On 9/25/2023 at 11:40 AM, shrader said:

A random Joe Sakic reference this morning got me thinking about one.  I don't know the answer but it might be fun to research.

1. How many hall of famers played their entire career with one team?
2. How many of those played in more than one city?

I also wonder if the WHA could complicate the question.  If someone played in the WHA and then just one NHL team, would you count that for #1?  I'm not sure if anyone even did that since guys like Howe and Hull wound up playing with that same WHA team post merger.

There are plenty of guys who pass question #1.  We’re they saying that Sakic was the only one who did?

[Rasmus close to extension at $10M per]

51 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

In regards to Power, getting a large 2nd contract(after playing only 1 year) is not happening in the NFL, pretty sure is not happening in MLB, and have no idea about the NBA. 

In MLB this is definitely happening.  Teams are locking up elite young talent to big contracts very early.  Sometimes before before they even completed one MLB season.

In the NBA, it doesn’t happen after one year because the contract structures don’t really allow for that, but teams often fall all over themselves to pay their top young guys as soon as they can.

[Rasmus close to extension at $10M per]

27 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Wrong. 

First, Makar signed in June of 2021 for 9 mil. For 6 years.

Salaries go up. Sorry, they just do. So more than 2 years later, Makar today (Summer 2023), would easily get 11 mil per, and perhaps more. True story.

So, Dahlin signing in 2023 (that doesn’t kick in until Fall of 2024) for 10.5 mil. per or somewhere close to that is in fact less than what Makar would get in 2024 if he signed with Colorado today.

Same logic applies to Fox who signed in Nov. 2021 and it started in fall of 2022 for 7 years for 9.5 mil. per. He would absolutely positively get paid more if he signed today with the Rangers.

As much as you don’t like it… You are paying Power not only for his current ability but for his youth, his best years, and projected improved ability and development. And management is very comfortable knowing much more than we ever would… What his projected improved ability and development looks like.
 

And as much as you don’t like it, all teams do this. All of them. In all major sports.

Regarding salaries increasing with the cap, that’s true, but also only part of the reason that Dahlin could make more than Makar or Fox.

There is also the issue of RFA years versus UFA years. UFA years generally are a good amount more expensive to get a guy under contract than RFA years are.  This is because players have a lot money re control and leverage over those years are are thus able to command more money.

Both those other guys’ contracts started directly after their ELCs, which means that 4 out of their 6 or 7 contract years are RFA years.  Compare this to Dahlin signing after a 3 year bridge deal.  This means that only 1 out of 6 or 7 or 8 years would be would be an RFA year, the rest would be UFA years.  That is also going to slant Dahlin’s contract towards being more expensive.

8 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

As much as I like Dahlin and Power neither should be getting $10 million. They should be paid under Makar and Fox. Dahlin still needs a lot of work in his own end and Power is way too young and hasn’t proven much to demand a big contract.

You can never really just look at the raw AAV numbers of other players to decide how much someone should be paid.  It’s going to be influenced by some factors that are a little more nuanced than that.

[What can we expect from the Sabres Power play?]

20 minutes ago, LTS said:

Just run the damn thing from below the goal line and those one-timers will open up even more.  It should also reduce short-handed opportunities against as the defense is forced to play lower in the zone.

I still wait for the day some NHL team uses this and shows success.. and they will show success. 

I know right.  It’s weird that this is very rarely done by any team.

[Updated betting odds/team over under points]

5 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Uh, no it isn't...if I were to foolishly go and bet the Jags to beat the Bills it's +200, meaning if I bet $100 I win $200...

It seems that spread bets or over/under bets are equal on both sides tho?  Is that what you mean?

Well yeah, because the Bills are favored by a fair amount, so the bookmakers cut gets kind of buried in the difference.

Yeah, I’m taking about the spread.  Spreads and over/unders are often equal prices on both sides, but not always.

For example, just look at this other NFL game.  The spread is very close, so you can see the moneyline prices are both negative in this case as well.  It’s because of the book’s cut.  It’s always like that.

[Updated betting odds/team over under points]

44 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I'd take the over and will go bet some money on it. Wait what??  

How the hell are both sides of the over/under minus money?  F that...why the hell would I bet 115 dollars to win 100?

Hmm, don’t bet much, do you?  It’s minus on both sides because the bookmaker takes a cut.  That’s how it is for all sports betting.

[Updated betting odds/team over under points]

1 hour ago, Getpucksdeep said:

I've been spending too much time thinking about these odds after the no-brainer 77.5 last year.  93 is only one win better. Seems like we got this no?

Same, same.  Haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

Also, anyone think the Sabres can get 100 points?  That’s +220.  Bet $100, get $220 profit if you win.

[Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections]

12 minutes ago, tom webster said:

It means that with their top two centers locked up with below market deals, and a pipeline full of prospects that will be at low cap contracts for 3-6 years, the Sabres will have plenty of cap space to sign guys to market deals.

In summary, If the team has any cap issues at any point between now and 2029-2030, they screwed up royally.

I was more so looking for specifics.  I might agree or disagree with you.  I have no idea.  Your proclamations are too vague.

If your only point is that the cap will go up, yeah, we know.  Publicly rumored to be going up $4-5M each of the next two offseason.

[Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections]

5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

As I’ve said ad nauseum, the cap will approach $100M within five years. It is the true reason guys are considering Matthew’s lead and not comitting to 7 and 8 year deals. It doesn’t hurt that players have better leadership as well.
This was the last year Buffalo had to take advantage of their cap space and so far, they have chosen not to. Time will tell if they made the right move.

Oh, I do recall you repeating it ad nauseum, please believe that.

What do you mean by “approaching” though?  Is that $95M?, $99M?

And 5 years?  Is that the 2028-29 season?

Perhaps Power is considering a shorter deal as opposed to 6+ years for this reason.  I have no idea.

[Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Will start with #4: maybe I'M actually confused about what kind of AAV a #1 overall pick defenseman who looks the part can demand. But if ELITE players are fetching closer to 10, is your thinking that Power can be had for less due to how young and inexperienced he is? Is it his lack, so far, of demonstrably elite offensive talent? What is it (as Dahlin is headed towards 10-11M AAV...)? This Sabres org has locked in many of their core guys to long deals a little early, it seems, maybe saving money overall by betting on continued growth/production before it's been shown on the ice.

#3: What kinds of AAVs are those other top-5 guys signing for with 6+ years term? I honestly don't know, and you left that out. 

I'm mostly just asking if the Sabres can sign Power to so much term at an annual number as "low" as 8.5. The answer may well be yes to most people. I'm happy to be uninformed and possibly wrong.  

Recent D who were drafted top-5, played like #1 D in the making, and then signed 6+ year extensions of off their ELC’s; they have generally signed for 10-11% of the cap.  This is guys like Doughty, Ekbland, Pieterangelo, Heiskanen, Makar.

The cap is 83.5 this coming season, and rumored to be going up to 87-88M the next.

So maybe if Power plays very well this season and the cap goes up to $88M, maybe he could get close to $9.5M max on a 6+ year extension, but that would be the true max max that I think is even plausible.  

[WHL Wild coach suspended]

17 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Well that’s one less thing to worry about I guess.

[Training Camp Roster Moves]

19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree it's an upward trajectory.  My point was simply that he hadn't really done anything to inspire confidence prior to the 2nd half of last season.

As for point totals and GP -- the problem with pts/game is that this can be distorted when the sample size is small -- ie a few garbage-time assists in a 22-game span when the team is running for the bus can give rise to the claim that he was a good player.

I mean, I guess it depends on what you mean by “inspire confidence“.  Did it inspire confidence that he was gradually improving as a player over the course of 3-4 years?

I think everyone would agree that last year’s 2nd half was the best he has played, but you kind of made it sound like he was basically the same, kinda crappy player for 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and that seems kind of fluky.

I’m saying that he showed a fair amount of gradual improvement over 4 1/2 years, then had a really good 1/2 season, and it doesn’t seem completely flukey.

The truth is that he probably isn’t going to be the guy from last season’s 2nd half going forward, because if you take any player’s best half season from a 5 year sample, they probably aren’t going to live up to that over the long term.  However, I think he will be a pretty good middle-6 player going forward.

As for point totals and GP, if I have to choose between raw point totals, without GP, and Pts/game, I’d say that pts/game is much more useful to analyze.  That’s all I was saying.

[Training Camp Roster Moves]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So he put up some garbage-time stats for a rock-bottom team as they ran for the bus a couple of years ago, and that means he was a good player at that time?  Even though the next season, he had 6 goals in 40 games?

His point production in his 4 NHL seasons before last year:  25, 9, 22, 19.

Last year, he had 1 goal in October, 2 in December, 0 in January and 1 in March.

Again:  he looked like he had finally arrived by the stretch run last year.  That is potentially a very promising development for the team.  But it is pure #hammymath to claim that he's been a good player all along.

Why are you focusing on goals for a players whose strengths are playmaking a puck possession?

And listing out point totals while ignoring the number of games played?  Commonnmann 

His point production for his 5 NHL  seasons:

Pts/Game: 0.32, 0.29, 0.54, 0.48, 0.72

Pts/60: 1.4, 1.4, 2.0, 1.8, 2.7

Pts/60 ES: 1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 1.4, 2.3

Looks like an upward trajectory to me.

[Training Camp Roster Moves]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

First, it's way too soon for the victory lap on Mitts.  He's played 5 NHL seasons and had one good half-season.  His early years were spent in a highly dysfunctional environment, and I think everyone runs his own race, so I think the Sabres were right not to give up on him.  I kinda expect him to continue to improve -- but there will be more pressure on him and the entire team this year.  He may or may not be up to the task.

As for a contract, I could've missed it, but I don't think KA has said anything about an extension for Mitts, who is an RFA after this season -- unlike Power and Dahlin, whom KA has publicly stated the team is trying to sign.  I'd guess that KA wants to sign Mitts, but at a fairly limited number in term and AAV, and probably not until Power and Dahlin are done.

I have to agree with @GASabresIUFAN on this one.

I think Mitts has shown fairly steady improvement, interrupted by periodic injuries.  His first two years, he was pretty terrible, the next two he was decent, then last season he was better than decent.

[Buffalo Sabres Cap Projections]

6 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

You want to look at solid value guys in FA and not those big shiny Taylor Hall types imo. What I want to see next year is more effort to fill the holes or get the type of players the roster is missing. If the young core is good enough (including Levi) you don't want to keep waiting for the future hole fillers, you want to do it now and structure your contracts accordingly. 

I'm just tired of waiting for next year. Time is now. 

Agree regarding using FA to fill mid tier roster holes as opposed to going big game hunting.

The goalie situation is the one that really bothers me.  It should be better.  Levi should have a reliable guy to share the crease with.  There wasn’t much goalie movement this offseason, but it’s a multi year issue that Adams has to be considered responsible for.  Hopefully Levi is good, Comrie/UPL are serviceable, and it’s not a real problem.  Kind of beating a dead horse here though.