DarthEbriate

How we doing? Same as always. That bad, huh?

Checkers? (or in-idiom: Holochess?)

Off thread -- but this is one thing (of several, including local Sabres games) that excites me about the Seattle expansion. Rumor has it that KEXP will be running their music. It's like putting a college station in charge, but with an emphasis on local music and unfamiliar music. It could be glorious (or....off the rails weird). Either way: fun.

Never said it was likely, just that that's the kind of play we need now to have a chance. But it didn't have to be that way. What's the most disappointing in all of this is that we've seen good stretches. A quick start, a few five-game stretches where we compete shift in and shift out (and sometimes win and sometime lose, just like other teams). That sickly stretch by the GLO line. And we got to see MVP-caliber play from Eichel, where if we were in the playoff race, then he'd be a Hart contender. But we also lost 10 of 11 in November and 7 of 8 to close out 2019. And we weren't picking up a bunch of OT/SO loser points during those time either. Those more than undid any consistently good stretches we've had. A 2C (which we needed going into the season) and a backup goalie (which we could've found as early as November) would've gone a long way to keeping those good stretches more consistent.

If only they had cloned Eichel instead of Jango Fett we wouldn't be in this ridiculous position.

No scouting report on him; the guy is riding an emotional high --- and the team can buy into him with one big game or save, as well as believe they both have to play better because he's an AHL guy, and have the confidence that he's got their back. It's a fairy tale story. I like space fairy tales.

Or the Hamburglar's run in 2014-15 Ottawa. (He's in ROC.) He went 20-1-2 that regular season to get the Sens into the playoffs. That's the run we need from Hutton/Johansson. Legendarily hot goaltending. Sub 1.90 GAA, .94+ sv %, and win every OT/SO except 1.

The current pace in the East is right about 98-100 points as the playoff threshold. We would need to average 15 points in every 10 games from here on out to hit that (7-1-2) in our remaining 32 games. The playoffs are beautiful place, and there's always hope... Sometimes you blow up the Death Star and sometimes there's another Death Star or fleet of Death Stars and your doomed. (We're currently on pace for 83 points) Edit: Adding Binnington Last season in 32 regular season games (the same as we have remaining right now) Binnington went 24-5-1. We need that. If Johansson is Binnington (and we have STL's defensive structure).... That's the type of run we're looking at.

That's the fear. When you look at each trade in a vacuum it's an OK balance in some form (even ROR, which balanced the salaries and was expected to fill out forward depth and get Berglund as a temporary 2C). When you look at it holistically --- we've not really improved beyond Eichel and Reinhart's continued growth (which is expected) and our depth has gotten a bit better because of Olofsson and MoJo (already in system and free agency). Here's outcome of JBots's trade world, excluding extraneous picks/players (Fasching trade isn't on here): DLo -> AHL Redmond BUF 5th -> AHL Wilson Kane (UFA - rental) + Guhle -> Sheary, Hunwick, Montour ROR -> Thompson, Sobotka, D Johnson, D Miller Pu (+ picks) -> Skinner BUF 3rd -> Vesey Nylander -> Jokiharju Scandella -> Frolk

It's true. No - fighting doesn't make you tough, but the only fights I can remember this year are Vesey and Eichel's double-minor non-fight. The only guy who routinely sticks up for his teammates is Reinhart. And the only guy who's consistently agitating and on-edge is Skinner (likely because he's so frustrated at his slump). We don't protect our net fiercely or force turnovers because if you don't rush the pass you're going to get hit squarely. The only time we're difficult to play against is when Eichel has the puck on his stick in the O-zone. (And that couple week stretch when the GLO line was raising hell, which was unsustainable.)

The two top 6 forwards is tricky, but one via trade (2C) with several assets going back and one via free agency (winger) is definitely doable. I think you're right that the roster isn't so far out of whack. The 2C is the key. Just swap ROR back into our lineup for Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson (hey, that was easy!) and on paper a lot of other things slide nicely into place and it looks like a playoff team. And you can always trade for a gritty winger with playoff experience at the deadline as a rental (provided you're about to make the playoffs and the other team isn't). As to the roster dismantling. It isn't needed if you land the 2C. My worry is all the expiring contracts --- it's absolutely an opportunity to improve, but also we're dismantling our bottom 9 this offseason whether we want it or not. (Which means an entire team learning cohesion and chemistry, etc. to start next season, which could mean a very sluggish start, which could lead to more suffering if the team doesn't find itself after 20 games and get it in full-on winning mode.)

hehehe... Samson has his own thread for this. ? (For the right price, no one is off the table, even Gretzky. But Dahlin could get more in return than Samson.)

Nah, no need to take it seriously. My over-the-top wish list just had the extra picks and 2C coming back. I think something this big has to be the starting asking price to any team. You have to get them already thinking that Dahlin is the greatest thing since blue milk -- then begin the negotiations and haggling. I don't believe Tampa feels they're a Dahlin away from a Cup, but they might relish the idea of going from peak-Hedman to peak-Dahlin. Unrelated to this thread: I wonder what TB's GM's psyche is heading in to this trade deadline. Risto was the big rumor last year. Nothing happened. And then, they meekly bow out in 4 games. Maybe this year they come back to JBot and are more willing for a shake-up.

I cropped a bit for space and to target a few specifics -- but all good points. I'm already wondering how Dahlin decides to proceed with his second contract. Does he opt for a slightly lower-paying bridge (on what could very well still be a junk team) and play for earlier free agency (or be able to suggest a trade)? Or does he agree to lock up forever with a franchise that has gone nowhere in a decade? And of those two options, which is the more valuable commodity to be traded to another team? (All with caveat that I hope we don't have to make a decision on trading him until multiple Cups have been won and he's in his late 30s and we're starting a rebuild and want to loan him out to an up-and-coming contender who needs his PP savvy to get them over the hump.)

And Point and a 1st. ? It would have to be Herschel Walker-level-crazy. It would require a GM who is mad like Ditka about a RB. It's not impossible, but it's not happening either. And besides, we should keep him. He's going to improve.

The master motivator coach works until the message gets stale with the veterans. I hate to refer to Carroll in Seattle --- but why does the ra,ra,ra work for him? Because the players enjoy it when they're competing for spots --- AND --- because the team hit on every single draft pick for a few years, plus an MVP-caliber QB (rookie contract or now otherwise) whose every deep ball and scramble drill in the second half of a game resulted in a clutch first down or big play, and it resulted in a ton of wins. But if Seahawks don't nail all those draft picks and their QB (Shameless love Matty Flynn! plug) is Flynn instead of Wilson --- then Carroll is long since out of a head coaching job. RK's not getting results because it's Jack/Reino/Olofsson or nothing and they're not enough to carry everyone for a full season.

Ottawa, Montreal, Anaheim. We play 'em all in the next few weeks while Hutton is our #1. If you want to make up ground in the tank standings, now is the time to do it.

I'll take that bet. I'll wager my new racing pod against... say... the under (and his mother).

Sure, I'd love to see Dahlin score more goals, but other than that I think he's well on track. It'll be another 5 seasons before he even starts his defensive prime. So -- nah, I wouldn't move him. But! If I did, I think now is not the time. His trade value was probably highest before he was picked, and now there's a bit of a lull while he's in his growing pains (particularly on a bad team where he can't freewheel with protection). Every mistake is amplified by this team because there's no margin for error. He's not young Doughty on those stacked LA Kings rosters. But, but! I'd start by requesting a young 2C to build around, the team's top forward prospect, a D-man who can take his spot on the PP, and at least 2 first-round unprotected picks, a couple second rounders, and.... maybe a goalie swap with Hutton going back. Remember, other GM, you're trading for Baby Lidstrom for the next 15 years. I want your future! Give me your children.

<the sound of the Millennium Sabre sputtering; the view of stars remaining static through the canopy> RALPHO: They told me they fixed it! I trusted them to fix it! (Although by all counts, Coach K would take the blame like a good coach)

At this point it has to be. Plus deadline-day trades to begin the reformation. But based on the number of expiring contracts we have to do exactly that and we don't get an expansion draft. In Watto voice: Only money!

On the one hand, I like that JBot has stocked the D-pipeline in drafts. They take longer to mature and having a constant stream of chips to play or move over the coming years is a good thing. On the other hand, they aren't all, but are they predominantly regarded puck-moving defensemen who play small and move the puck because they don't embrace contact and physical imposition. Yes, it's a generalization. On the one hand, the team is hovering around the cap because of some big contracts over the years (Moulson, Bogo, Skinner, Okposo) that exceeded the player's output (at least offensively). And it takes time wait for them to expire --- so you average about 1 "freed-up money" slot to move around each year to slowly overhaul a roster. OR, it takes additional resources and a willing recipient to move those contracts. So... patience. On the other hand, while some bad contracts come off the books this offseason --- so does most of the team. 9 of 13 NHL contracts for forwards expire after this season. Nine! In general, it costs more to replace the same position via free agency, particularly if it's a 4-year+ contract for someone you value enough to build around. Our FA 2RW will cost more than Frolik or Sobotka (though not necessarily combined). RFAs Olofsson and Reino will cost more. Even Larsson (if he returns) would get a tiny bump. A FA 2C would cost significantly more than MoJo. And yes, some of those positions will cost less (13F less than Rodriques; 3W less than Vesey, etc.). But I think we'll be at or above the $52M we're spending on forwards this year unless.... Basically, we need Risto + Things to not just bring back a 2C and another starting 3F/4F, we need both of those new players to be cost-controlled and viable parts of the roster for a couple seasons until more cash re-opens (Okposo + cap increases from expansion). That's a tall order for any GM. (And I don't want to give up any 1st round picks in the next 2 seasons because this is not a playoff team yet.)

Minimum of 2 coaching changes and at 3 full seasons so that he can turn over the roster in his own image (unless he does something to personally antagonize the owner or the code of conduct). So, after next season is when the JBot watch can begin. Alternately, if you believe stability breeds success (see.... Steelers, Patriots, Bengals) you keep a coach for at least 10 seasons, regardless of outcome. But the NHL and NFL are unfair comparisons.

The glut of defensemen was there. It may have decreased the leverage (even with Pilut and Bogo injured). But yes, Regier (before he thought he was just a piece away and would get the Boyes' of the world as rentals) would've addressed it. And GMTM would've mortgaged a position pipeline and a couple drafts for it. JBots is GMing .... either scared.... or assured that he can play the long game.

Hey... Pegleg is a quality pivot. And Wheelchair got his nickname from his lightning speed and ability to pop a wheelie on his motorcycle....