Randall Flagg

So let's turn that package over to Florida and try to get Hoffman and some other goodies! (Though Hoffman may well be just as problematic as Laine, so maybe not)

I think Jeff Skinner is an example of a guy who provides goal scoring without tanking your team elsewhere (even though he's bad at defense). Laine is a complete headcase in trying to figure out how to minimize his problems, BEFORE you even touch the fact that the leadership group in Winnipeg is sick of his "lack of buy-in." And talk about streaky - I'm pretty sure he scored 21 of his 30 goals in November. So in the other five months, you got nine goals out of him, while kneecapping yourself in every other facet of a game where 98% of all things that happen aren't goals I like your idea of focusing on goal scorers if you can, I just don't like Laine hehe

Dammit true

Just to show the difference in the RAPM charts of two seasons I'm picturing: Or Ovechkin's 3rd season (this was Laine's 3rd) This is a statistical extreme if I've ever seen one, and I think it's safe to buy into its conclusion that Ovechkin was essentially the best offensive player in the league (or at least top 2-3)

These guys really aren't particularly close in play style and overall effectiveness on the game. When Laine isn't being fed (generally difficult to make) passes by good teammates in high-scoring areas, he's a huge drain on his team. He can't drive play alone, whereas that's kind of Ovechkin's entire thing, being overwhelmingly puck-dominant and ramming the play down the other team's throat single-handedly (of course, he plays a little different now than he did in 2007). The best hockey player I've ever seen was 2007-2010 Ovechkin. Laine is like the 200th best hockey player I saw this season, and it's only above ~500 because of his shot which really can only be consistently used on the power play lately.

I say take that package to Tampa or Florida and see what you can get Don't waste it on a guy who won't buy in and is hot garbage the 99% of the time he's not shooting the puck on the power play

There are probably 5 Jets players I'd be interested in acquiring before Laine, at least

He made it seem like "they" include players - presumably big Buff, Scheifele, Wheeler.

I'm glad somebody else appreciates this absolute beaut

I think Ehlers - Copp - Reinhart might be the most intriguing line I've ever put together, accidentally or otherwise

Now, when we trade Risto for Zibanejad, I'll absolutely start rolling film and keep an eye on Jimmy while it's happening ?

Having some fun: ~McCabe to LA for ~Toffoli (~ means you can add or subtract small things as needed because I don't really understand the trade value of most players) Ristolainen, Laaksonen, 2nd to Winnipeg for Copp, Ehlers sign Gardiner Fix cap problems as needed (surely someone will take Scandella somewhere somehow please) Skinner - Eichel - Toffoli Ehlers - Copp - Reinhart Olofsson - Mittelstadt - Johansson Girgensons - Larsson - Rodrigues Okposo Dahlin - Montour Gardiner - Miller Pilut/Scandella - Bogosian/Jokiharju Nelson Whoops, forgot Vesey. I wouldn't take anyone out of that lineup for him though. Sheary and Vesey shipped off for picks and cap space heheh

I didn't think I was alone in thinking Lazar wasn't going to be in the top 13 forwards on this team - I don't recall seeing him in any lineups posted here. But there he is with Vogl. What are the chances he sticks around?

Perhaps he gets used in an offensive role with good possession linemates, so they don't give up a lot of shots, but when they do he and his teammates are so bad at defense that they're usually high quality chances. Perhaps it's something like you say. Best bet would be to watch a bunch of rangers games to see! Bylsma's Sabres that year Lehner had a good save percentage sort of had the inverse problem, I think - their corsi against was fairly high, but it was mostly because of a large number of shots from the outside (probably by design). NST says their expected goals against was 20th, but their corsi against was 28th. People argued that Lehner's save percentage was good, and so he had a good year, but would be countered by folks who showed that his high danger save percentage was like last among starters, and generally by people who weren't convinced by watching him that he was good, that it really was more of the defensemen and bylsma's defensive zone system (whatever that may be - perhaps being content to give players a lot of space at the points and walls in exchange for doing their best to gum up the middle) that contributed to Lehner's stats. Run on sentences. When you see statistical extremes, I think it's safe to assume that they may point to an issue in the related field (Vesey's defense), but also wise to do more digging to see what else you can find, and watching a bunch of games would be the best complement to this available in an ideal world. (Of course, not even IIIIII have the time to sit and rewatch Ranger games for Jimmy Vesey)

FWIW, I basically ignore RAPM charts unless I see +/- 1.5 or more, because I'm seriously effin tired of charts and numbers and anything numerical or analytic or anything I just glance through them, look for the crazy outliers, and then try to figure out why that might have showed up Not saying that's what anyone else should do, but I have become fatigued

When a linear regression is run to isolate Jimmy Vesey's impact on his team's expected-goals-against (like corsi against but taking into account the quality of shots, and producing a number based on how often goals are scored from those locations) he falls in the bottom ~3% of all NHL skaters, after the regression is performed on everyone. On a team and individual level, expected goals against does a better predictive job for future defensive events than something like goals against or shots against. You could maybe estimate Sheary at the ~35th percentile in the same based on that graph (just eye-balling and recalling a normal distribution from memory) You can interpret that information how you wish, but as far as I know, that's what the chart says.

This is why hockey is so hard - and thus fun - to try and figure out. I wish I had a better way to argue than these (I coulda started pulling stats out too but you can make just as many arguments agains tthose) but it's better than nothing I guess!

Yeah, the main argument against Evan appears to be his physical weakness (with good reason). But Sheary is ALSO very weak!

And Sheary isn't better than ERod at hockey, or even particularly close. He has a few more goals, but when he's not scoring, he's useless on both ends of the ice. And as we slipped out of playoff contention, as dudacek pointed out recently, he bravely put up just one or two non-empty-net goals in a 44 game stretch. The extent of his contributions during that pivotal stretch of over half an NHL season can be summarized by the following video: While Rodrigues is a legitimately good penalty killer who is always making things happen on and off the puck when he's slotted appropriately (ie not replacing Jack's spot when Jack is injured). His hockey sense as a forward is only bested by Sam Reinhart's on this team IMO. He's incredibly useful even if he never scores a point.

I don't care what we do. Just make sure he doesn't step on NHL ice in our uniform this year.

Ladies and gents, we have a fourth line.

Yeah, I would hope for more value in Risto, but if we did this trade I could be convinced that's the best value we could get. If your "too many forwards" are Vlad and Scott, just waive them. Not a difficult problem!

Average fruit

I really prefer a 2C, but if the RW is good enough, I can be talked into that. Then we can just offer sheet Cirelli for far more than tampa is willing to pay next year ? But I really would love a better plan B (long term) than hope Mitts or Cousins becomes one.

1.) Eichel 2.) Miller 3.) Pominville 1.) MacKinnon 2.) Seth Jones 3.) PK Subban or Erik Karlsson 1.) Eric Staal 2.) Milan Lucic 3.) Nazem Kadri