LGR4GM
-
Posts
54,876 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by LGR4GM
-
-
2 minutes ago, Mango said:
Since the Kelce's are hockey fans, once Travis retires and marry's Taylor Swift, rumor has it they'll buy the Sabres. Which competing owner do you think Taylor will write a song throwing shade at first? I don't think it will be an owner at all. I think the first thing they'll do is buy out Jeff Skinner and she'll immediately drop a track called "Jesus, Eh? Forget Football I aint no pig SKINNER"
My second guess is she comes after the Leafs and Bieber in one go.If Taylor Swift were to buy the Sabres in this hypothetical, Ryan Reynolds would almost certainly be her co-owner. Bring on the deadpool and all of the swifties
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, OverPowerYou said:
Will Salt Lake City have a new team name?
Somewhere in this thread there is a tweet about the names they put in a trademark application on.
-
JJP had a good year. He went from 12g and 20a to 28g and 22a at the ripe old age of 22. He was durable playing all 82 games this season, the only Sabre to do so followed closely by Dahlin with 81gp.
Lets take a look at his GF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and xGF/60 (goals for %, expected goals for %, high danger corsi for %, and expected goals per 60mins of toi)
At 5v5: 57.01gf% (2nd), 51.46xGF% (2nd), 48.84hdcf% (3rd), and 2.75xGF/60 (2nd). JJP was one of the best forwards on the team this past season and outside of Quinn having a higher xGF/60 the other players above him are gone (Mitts and Okposo). While ever Sabre needs to better at hdcf% and should be under Ruff, JJP took advantage of his opportunities and we see that reflected in his 28goals this season.
PP stats: 68.75GF% (8th), 81.63xGF% (8th), 75.76HDCF% (8th), and 5.1xGF/60 (8th). Once again we find one of our better producers just turning into muck on the pp. There is so much evidence the pp is just total ***** and should be burned and never spoken of again that the fact they did nothing all year to address it is... something. Why did this happen to JJP and Benson? Hard to say but it could be that the 2nd pp unit was just nowhere near as good as Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, Skinner and Okposo all come out looking better. I think for me it says that like Benson there is more scoring to unlock here and we should be able to next season.
Final thought on the numbers is that once the line of JJP - Tage - Tuch was put in place they managed 156min toi and in that time managed a 72.22GF% while only having an xGF of 43.95. Interestingly that xGF goes over 50% when it is JJP with just Tage and when it is JJP with just Tuch in the limited minutes those players were paired together. I think there could be a case that the xGF% is low because they used their really good shooting skills more than relying on HD chances which would have pumped up the xGF more. It is a time when talent is beating out chances and to be honest, that might continue. JJP only shot at 12.4% so he isn't some crazy sniper with an unsustainable number (Reinhart shot 24.5% on a career avg of 13.6% for example, buyer beware).
Peterka had about as good of a second season under the circumstances as we could have hoped for. He was solid defensively while being quite good offensively to the point he replaced Jeff Skinner. I think there is still more though and getting more pucks to HD areas will help some of the imbalance we see between actual and expected goals. Yes good shooters will outperform their xGF regularly but in JJP case, I want to see the uptick in assists I think he can generate. Still it appears as though JJP himself can get to the good shooting areas and convert. I hope it continues and I hope he continues to improve. He added 18 more points this past season, 16 of those goals, so there is a good chance that with more scoring and a better system his assists totals rocket up as well. I don't think looking at him as a 25g, 35a guy is too crazy. What a great 2nd round pick he is and what a great move up to get him (traded 38 and 100 to get up to 34).
-
2
-
3
-
-
Sidenote: Benson had a 11.22sh% this season which is higher than I thought.
3 hours ago, darksabre said:Dude has that Danny Briere stuff behind the net
do I mean the poster or Briere?!?!?!????
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, dudacek said:
It’s hard to project his ceiling given the lack of comparables.
But it’s obvious the kid just gets hockey.
I don't have a comparable, that's for sure. 18yr olds at his size, but with his game, in the NHL already and holding their own? That's gotta be a massively short list but I will say that in his draft year, Mitch Marner was a comparable I saw. I think they play different though.
-
42 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
Lol — you sure?
I take your issue here to be principled and generalized (“don’t lie to your team’s long suffering fans”), not personal.
As stated, I’d urge you to a more practical view, but I won’t drag for the passion or zeal with which you’re making your point. Keep on rockin’ in the free world.
I mean... they did draft Zach Benson which was something I would have done... so maybe he does.
Let's try something. Dear Kevyn Adams, don't ever draft a Leinonen with a 2nd round pick again, thanks.
... now we wait.
-
4
-
-
I went with "whatever" in the poll. I think Ruff can work, his Marty interview was great yesterday and much better than his presser. That said, my issue goes back to process. They wanted Ruff and they got Ruff, that doesn't mean they are wrong but it also calls into question their ability to objectively judge the coaches available. With all that said, I think I feel whatever because until the team under any coach shows us they get what it takes to win at this level consistently, it is all just window dressing to me. Lindy can only do so much and the players have to realize they are to blame for the state of the franchise just as much as any coach.
-
18 hours ago, thewookie1 said:
Toffoli is 2x3.5mil here right otherwise I can't imagine us doing this as it would effectively doom any hope of resigning Levi, Quinn and Peterka.
If you sign Toffoli for 2x3.5mil I think that is perfectly reasonable and not a hinderance at all to Levi, Quinn, or JJP. At worst it only overlaps those new deals by one year and Levi isn't going to break the bank. JJP probably needs to be signed this summer and Quinn, you might want to see what he looks like healthy but I would expect an absolute explosion from him next year. Still, I think you can manage the 1 year overlap on those contracts, especially if you move on from Skinner via trade this offseason or via buyout next offseason. You buy him out next offseason and you save roughly 6-7ish mil against the cap that first year which is all you need to get to the other side of Toffoli.
-
Brugler of the Athletic has the Bills trading up to 17 and taking Brian Thomas Jr.
That was/is his final Mock before tonight.
-
1
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Well, he proved me wrong. I consistently said we should send him back but by March, he was turning into one of our top 6 forwards. Let's take a look at how he did as a rookie 18yr old in the NHL. We will look at xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 (expected goals for %, actual GF%, high danger corsi for, and expected goals per 60min of toi)
Let's start at 5v5. Zach Benson finished the year with an xGF of 51.25% and an actual GF% of 47.95% in 886mins of ice time. His HDCF% was 48.62%. At 5v5 on the Sabres that would rank him: 4th in xGF, 21st in GF%, 8th in HDCF%. One last stat is xGF/60 (lead by Jack Quinn with 2.96, so expect a massive year from him next season) where expected goals are adjusted for TOI. Benson is 10th on the team at 2.57 xGF/60. Now these stats are for alllllll the players we have and even though we might be a bit down on this team, we have some really good defenders.
Next let's look at the same comparison but just forwards at 5v5: 3rd in xGF, 9th in GF%, 4th in HDCF% and 7th in xGF/60. So what do I think this means? Well, he knows how to generate chances but could be more efficient using his TOI to do it, that said, he's already really good at this. Second, he needs to better at finishing chances himself and also he will greatly benefit from a linemate like Quinn who can finish the chances Benson creates. That actual GF% shows IMPO a lack of finish and the need for better linemates, something he got as the season wound down. Finally, while his high danger corsi is 4th on the team (actually 2nd because Okposo and Mitts were above him, JJP is the other) his rate of finishing those chances and preventing HDCA drops to 8th, showing again there is work to be down both in limiting chances against better and finishing his chances better.
Next, the PP. Benson got 75mins of PP time which ranks him 8th out of 9 forwards that got at least 50min of PP time. That said and this is really really important, 78min for Okposo, 70min for Olofsson, and 157min for Mitts are all up for grabs now. I suppose we can just take all of Okposo's and hand that directly to Quinn. Again we see the same issue with his actual GF% which is 50% meaning that the pp was bad for young Benson. He is last in GF%, xGF, HDCF%, and 2nd in HDCA/60.... so he is generating chances really well but I am going to guess that there are several PP where his unit ain't great. Now the good news is that I think a better coach will easily rectify that and his high danger generation is just a hair below Thompson per 60mins. Also the on ice sv% is abysmal at 66.67% which is over 12% lower than the next guy... so not great at all. Could be that Benson's game needs some work on the PP to help get these numbers back up or it could be that he was the victim of some truly questionable tending.
What is the takeaway from all of this? At 5v5, Zach Benson is a borderline 2nd line winger already and there is good indication he is well on his way to 1st line winger levels of play. His shot needs to be improved and probably some of his passing but with better linemates such as Quinn and Cozens, I think we will see him adapt rapidly (anecdotally we did see this in the last bit of the season). That line only played 67mins together at 5v5 and while their actual goals ended up 4for and 5against, their xGF was 54.14 so they were tilting their ice in their teams favor. I would expect their actual goals to catch up. At the very least we have a small glimpse into the ability of Benson to be a 2nd line winger and the results aren't bad at all.
Further we can see a player that consistently can title the ice in his teams favor 5v5 but wasn't perfect. I am not sure how to take his PP numbers but perhaps he just wasn't that good there. The PP will look completely different this season so that will be a something to look at. For a kid who played his rookie season as a true 18yr old in the NHL, being 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 7th on your team for forwards in xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 is a great starting point. Skating and shooting need improvements but the underlying metrics are there and I feel as he gets stronger and faster, the actual metrics will start to climb up towards the predictive metrics. Hell of a year for a kid that went 13th overall and won't be 19 until May. Next up, we will look at JJ Peterka.
-
7
-
2
-
3
-
3.5 for 3 years works
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
He said while watching the playoffs, he felt about 50% of the goals being scored involved a tip, screen, or scrum in front. It was really good to hear and he indicated he's already talking to the remaining coaches on what the Sabres need to and shouldn't do. Mentioned going over video.
-
1
-
-
9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Nice backwards spin move. You a figure skater?
You introduced the "guys who hit stuff" concept, and you're right, that's boring.
Have a nice summer.
-
1
-
-
9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Oh I'm sure people have said Power needs to hit more, and he does, but he needs to get stronger first.
The issue for me was related to drafting Power and if people expected him to be a big hitter because he was big. Don't think anybody figured that.
Lots of ppl thought Power would be a physical player, hits are but one part, and that's never been his game.
-
6 hours ago, Doohickie said:
He's going on and on and on about. We get it: He thinks Kevyn lied to HIM. Personally. And he doesn't like it. Can we move on now?
To be honest, the real problem is that there's very little going on in Sabreland. Okay, Lindy was hired. But there will be few, if any, roster changes before the playoffs are done and we're all ready to start next season.
No I don't. That's idiotic and stupid. Adams has no idea who I even am.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, RETURNTOGLORY said:
Jesus. We'll make sure that GMKA and the entire organization runs everything through you in the future. You know, just to minimize your angst 😉
Don't be so small. It isn't about me, just like the fan salute thing was bigger than that. I hope Ruff rights the ship
-
1
-
1
-
-
11 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
What was the lie?
Nah. He was puffing.
I think Adams is in way over his head and may actually be a dummy. But I don't object to him saying he spoke to "double digits" people about this job opening.
You want me to say deliberately deceived his audience instead? Adams knowingly and purposely made it sound like he conducted a more extensive search than he clearly did. They wanted Ruff and they got Ruff.
-
5 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:
He talked with double digits, truly interviewed 3/4
A good way to fight off a question regarding who he talked to as no one will pursue the read people until late in the offseason.
He lied. Didn't need to.
-
1 minute ago, Brawndo said:
Called it. Again, I don't like being lied too.
-
37 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
For the umpteenth time, the reason you want big D men in this day and age is not for their "hit stuff" but for their reach.
What these young guys like Power lack is strength. Not to "hit stuff" but so they can box out, not get muscled past and have strength on stick with that reach.
Ability to "hit stuff" is just a bonus.
Nothing in the post you're responding to says "hit stuff". Power needs to learn to use his size better.
You're trying to pick a fight. It's boring, I'm bored now.
-
Just now, GoPuckYourself said:
I don't know if he'll ever be those players or not but like I said it can be taught and those 2 players are a good example imo.
I agree, size can't be taught. Maybe they can teach him to use his size better, Quinn and Benson would be good teachers.
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
You're actually the only one who keeps saying that phrase and pushing that narrative. It's your strawman argument that you try to put everyone who disagrees with you into.
I do not recall a single person saying Power would be a big guy who hits stuff.
"No one has ever said this!"
4 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:He has the size though and you can teach it.... Victor hedman and Chara are examples who weren't the players they are now until about 4 years into their careers, Chara I think even a bit later. I think another player who will benefit from Ruff if he's not dealt in a trade is Mattias Samuelsson, he throws the body around just not nearly enough for me to get excited, he also shows grit along the boards, but to me he just needs more development.
Very next post talks about Chara and Hedman, 2 players being used because of their size and... physicality.
Lots of ppl think Power will be more physical because of his size. It's never really been his profile but hey @PerreaultForever you keep on keeping on.
-
1
-
-
Lindy sounds infinitely better today in this interview with Biron. Make me feel a bit better but that roster surgery is gonna make or break it.
-
4
-
2
-
1
-
-
18 minutes ago, ... said:
At this point they are best to be considered as add-ons to a trade or trades that make the NHL roster better.
Adams needs to look at Rosen, Kulich, Östlund, and Savoie this offseason and decide which two he is keeping and then use the other two to improve the actual NHL roster while they are still young high end prospects. There is no future roster that makes sense with Tage, Quinn, JJP, Benson, Cozens, and then all 4 of the listed guys above. The time to make a decision on them is now, Östlund I could stand waiting a full NA year on before deciding anything but Kulich, Rosen, and Savoie we have a pretty good idea of what they are. The GM needs to project out who he wants and then package the spare to improve the actual NHL talent on the team. My pick is Rosen as a part of a package.
-
2
-
Zach Benson, the 5'10" 170lb, 18yr old rookie's first season review
in The Aud Club
Posted
as in he is heavier or lighter?