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Everything posted by dudacek
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Why?
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He's been on the left when I've been paying attention. The bolded is interesting. To me, a 3/4 line wing reads as your #10 forward. You certainly can't be paying your #10 what a 50-point scorer makes. But right now, Casey is the Sabres pretty clear #5, as measured by ice time (after Tage, Tuch, Skinner and Cozens). My expectation would be that Quinn overtakes him next year while current #6 Kyle gets phased down or out, leaving Casey fighting off an improving Peterka and Krebs for the 6/7 slot. Ideally, you want a team where most of your lineup is playing a slot below where they belong: that's the definition of depth. I think we can both win with, and afford, a team with Casey scoring 50 points from the #7 slot.
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My hot take: “we have 3 goalies who have not got the job done all year, let’s give one of the best goalies in college history a shot.” Yours: “we have 3 goalies who have not got the job done all year, we better play one of them instead of one of the best goalies in college history.” I get repeatedly told I’m giving up on the season. But I’m the obnoxious one?
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I’m seriously suggesting loading up at the trade deadline is no guarantee of going on a run. Ottawa and PIttsburgh have worse records than us since the trade deadline despite making moves to,address their perceived flaws. Florida did absolutely nothing and they have the best record of the 4 teams most in the race.
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Forgive them. They have yet to figure out that “Devon Levi” and a “rookie goalie straight out college” aren’t the same thing. Devon Levi’s first 9 games in junior goals against: 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 Devon Levi’s first 7 games for Team Canada goals against: 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2 Devon Levi’s first 20 games in college goals against: 0, 0, 3, 5, 0, 5, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0. He doesn’t have a history of struggling to make the jump. Related, he hasn't had a problem with ups and downs either. In the past 4 years he’s played 110 games. He’s allowed 4 goals just 10 times, 5 goals twice and 8 once. 97 times it’s 3 or less. 81 times 2 or less. In 110 games. Inconsistency has not been an issue.
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I’d prefer the goalie who gives me the best chance to win.
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This is what I’m hoping for. I see a player who looks out of shape, both physically and mentally. That’s why he was available. Donnie believes in him, Donnie has a track record, Jordan has a track record, and his skill set is precisely what we need so the pieces are there. I expect he will be challenged to have the off-season of his life and he will be put into a position to succeed. Fingers crossed he responds. Assuming Savoie is ready, the concept of a Savoie/Mitts/Greenway 3rd line sure has an intriguing mix of skills for next year
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Sure worked good for Ottawa. And the Penguins. Each made moves at the deadline and has been worse than the Sabres since. And Florida never would have climbed back into the race if they hadn’t traded for (checks notes) nobody. Such a false narrative.
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I think fan bases tend to overrate their local favourites against a league backdrop and underrate their whipping boys. This thread has reinforced that for me. It’s still entirely reasonable to say I want a different type of player in that role. “JAG” and “Not sure I’d offer him a contract” are things that no longer reasonably apply to the player we’ve watched this season. And if you thought he was a bust and still haven’t changed your mind, either your mind is closed or you don’t know what bust means.
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Since Jan. 1 his Corsi is a respectable 52.8%. That’s 5th among Sabre regulars. It’s also 101st among NHL forwards - again good 2nd-line production. His peers here include Nicushkin, Anders Lee, Tage Thompson and Nikita Kucherov.
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I know points aren’t everything, but. High-end 3W, statistically, have about 25 points right now. Casey’s 49 points would put him in a tie for 28th among NHL left wings (NHL.com still lists him as a C) He’s 2 points back of Chris Kreider, 1 behind David Perron, 3 behind Brock Boeser and 5 back of Patrick Kane. He’s ahead of guys like Debrusk, Teravainen, Taylor Hall, Tarasenko, Villardi, Bjorkstrand and Neiderreiter. Can become a high-end 3rd-liner? Statistically this season, he’s already become a high-end 2nd-liner. And unlike most of the guys above, he’s not actually playing with top-6 linemates.
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Did you think Casey was a passenger tonight?
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Casey’s next assist will be his 40th. Now that isn’t nearly as impressive as 40 goals or 80 points, but it’s notable. It’s a total only 12 Sabres have reached since 2000. Danny Briere only did it once. Tim Connolly only did it once. Ryan O’Reilly never did it. Neither did Chris Drury. He’s going to break 50 points, something only Eichel, ROR, Dahlin, Reinhart, Skinner and Thompson had done in a Sabres uniform prior to this season and since we launched the tank. Has he changed any minds?
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Skinner was absolutely fantastic last night. It's weird. The 1st line clearly misses some chemistry with Tage out; they just don't click as well. But individually all 3 members were buzzing.
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GDT: Sabres at Flyers-04-01 7:00PM MSG+/NBCS/ESPN+/WGR
dudacek replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Aud Club
You guys aren't wrong when applying logic to most people. I don't know that this applies to Levi. He's not your conventional 21-year-old. He's fit and well-rested. He wants to play. He lives to stop pucks. Common sense says start Comrie. I'd start Levi. Tonight and against Florida.And maybe beyond for as long as we're in the race. Because I want to make the playoffs. -
Yeah, I didn’t pull that reference randomly. Adams seems to have tried to focus on players wired to compete. It will be interesting to see how that manifests itself when these kids are men.
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A lot has been made about our lack of D prospects. The fact that we have a top 3 set for the foreseeable future has always softened that for me. It’s solid depth we need, not front-line guys. I don’t think it’s a stretch to think we might get a Borgen out of those two, or a Jokiharju out of Johnson and Lindgren. Don’t get me wrong, we need to draft some more defencemen, and Johnson is the only one of those 4 who should make it. But all 4 could, and I expect them to at least give Weber a few skaters to work with in Rochester.
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The euphoria of this thread ain’t going to last. But I’ve been trying to tell you: this is not another fragile little kid.
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Pretty sure that's what it usually looks like an hour before puck drop
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Very loosely, I tend to think of Joki as a #4/5 in the offensive and defensive zones and a #3 in transition.
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This is what a meant about him not being as aggressive as Joki. Joki’s defensive mindset is to see what’s in front of him and attack it. Johnson tends to be safer and more calculated. I think people tend to miss how good Joki is at actually neutralizing attackers when engaging because they get focused on those times his style allows other threats to get behind him. Johnson is more conscious of those secondary threats.
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Some Fancy Stats Comparisons from the past two seasons
dudacek replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
I’m going to couple this with your earlier post to conclude that: Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, Krebs, Kulich, Östlund, Savoie, Power and Levi are off the table as trade chips for at least the foreseeable future, because in Adams mind they are the future: they are where team improvement is coming from, they are who he is hoarding his cap space for. (I’ll add Mule to that - even if Adams didn’t - because of his contract.) In my view, that leaves him with plenty of other chips (Rosen, other prospects and picks, cap space, Olofsson etc.) to work with to acquire the missing pieces -
Some Fancy Stats Comparisons from the past two seasons
dudacek replied to Brawndo's topic in The Aud Club
Do you interpret the 3-5 years comment as Adams not being willing to make the moves you suggest for 3-5 years? I don’t. I interpret it as him not being willing to make moves today that would ***** up his salary cap 3-5 years from now. Maybe @Taro T or someone else who was at his Q&A can clarify. ***** Separate and not really aimed at you, but your post sparked it: something I see a lot is Rosen and Östlund being grouped together as a step below Kulich and Savoie. In my view, Östlund is far closer to the first 2 than to Rosen. Granted, I’m not huge on Rosen, but I see him with a Tyler Ennis ceiling and a Alex Nylander floor. Östlund has both a higher ceiling - legit 2-way 2C - and a safer floor, as in Tyson Jost, maybe? I don’t see him busting. He’s ultra-smart, fast and competitive. Never stops skating, always around the play, always on the right side of the puck, one-touch passing his way around the ice. All the things we liked about Asplund as a prospect, but much more offensively gifted and involved. -
i think a lot of people have downgraded or not paid a ton of attention to Johnson, maybe as a defence mechanism against him walking. He is a co-captain and 1st pairing defenceman on the best team in the country. The latter is a major reason why he didn't sign last summer.