dudacek
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Posts posted by dudacek
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Absolutely we should have expected more from this year.
And that’s even if you subscribe to my personal belief that this is more realistically described as year 3 of a ripped-down-to-the-studs rebuild. (People seem to forget that we started ‘Adams 2.0’ with our top 6 forwards coming off seasons of 13, 10, 8, 7, 4 and 2 goals, respectively, and for 3 of those guys, those were career bests).
Last year’s Sabres team missed the playoffs by just 1 point coming off 2 years of steady improvement. It clearly had talent given the offence it had just put up. It was resilient, fast and explosive. Its holes — goaltending, PK, commitment to team defence, stoutness up front, and depth on the blue line were pretty obvious and should have been fixable.
Ironically, the team looks to have fixed, or at least improved, most of those holes. But in the process it got slower and easier to frustrate.
Sabrespace has wrongly excoriated this team as being terrible when really it’s kinda like it was last year — just a different shade of mediocre.
But the pieces and the opportunities were there last summer for Adams and Granato to make this year something more and they were unable to do so. Sure the core is callow, but Adams did not bring in the right pieces, nor Granato push the right buttons to smooth or mask the pitfalls of that reality.
I can’t see any way to describe this year as anything other than a failure. And they have to own that.
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56 minutes ago, ... said:
Those coaches have proved they get it.
Our coach has proved he does not and, because of his lack of experience, never will at this point.
Or are we happy to have the coach of the Sabres learn how to coach at the NHL level on the fly? How much time should we give Meatballs?
If you're a parent, have you ever had people who have never had kids try and explain to you how to raise kids? People who have never had children will never understand what it's like to have children.
How is basically any other task different?
This is bad folk wisdom; unqualified advice.
Why learn from people who have never achieved any level of success in the task they're trying to teach? After a certain point in the "teaching", the teacher is just making guesses having never achieved beyond a certain level.
So what? He never played at the AHL or NHL level. He has no idea what his players are going through or what it takes as an individual to succeed at those levels.
The Sabres' record under him is PROOF of this. He can only get them so far.
Meatballs doesn't know what it takes to coach players at the NHL level to be successful because he has never done it himself and, unlike some other coaches who weren't players but were successful NHL coaches, isn't smart or creative enough to figure out what it takes.
Mitts' comments, and others like it, are coming from people who HAVE played NHL hockey and are super informative. Why discount the experience of real NHL players and the actual record when it comes to evaluating the ability of Meatballs? It's crazy to dismiss this input.
Doubling down?
4 of the past 6 Stanley Cup winners were coached by men who never played NHL hockey. A 5th played just 36 games.
John Tortorella, Claude Julien, Mike Babcock, Bob Hartley, Pat Burns, Scotty freaking Bowman — half of this century's cup-winners never played NHL hockey. Bowman, Burns, Hartley, Babcock and Cooper never even played pro hockey at all.
Barry Trotz had a worse record than Granato in each of his first 5 NHL seasons — under .500 and missed the playoffs in every single one. Cup.
Granato may or may not be a good coach, but the fact he didn't play in the NHL has nothing to do with it.
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24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:
I agree that the "never played in the NHL" factor isn't particularly probative, but the more important point here is that Mitts' comment again illustrates that the Sabres are not well coached.
And/or that they don't have Nathan MacKinnon setting the pace or the tone?
Do people actually find it particularly revelatory the Avalanche practice and play faster than the Sabres?
Don't the Avalanche play faster than pretty much everybody?
Hasn't Granato been urging the team to play faster all season long?
This is not an endorsement of Granato, it's my attempt to point out that there is an equally plausible argument that Mitts' comment illustrates that the Sabres players are immature. That's been their story all season. Those are the cards the coach has been dealt.
Suddenly surrounded by talented, driven adults, maybe it's dawning on Casey that there really is another level.
Or let me put it this way, you add MacKinnon to the Sabres and Granato would suddenly become a much-better coach.
Lindy Ruff coached the Sabres to 82, 72 and 85-point seasons from 2002-05 — or basically 3 straight years of what we have watched this year.
And then Darcy gave him Chris Drury.
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50 minutes ago, ... said:
This is what happens when you hire milquetoast people who have never played in the NHL.
Meatballs will never understand what it takes to compete at the NHL or even AHL level because he's never experienced it.
Not exactly the best argument I've seen for rejecting a coach.
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50 minutes ago, Thorny said:
That bad eh? Seems there’s some pretty strong feelings in this thread about the conference. Maybe I won’t watch it
The gist of it is pretty simple: he believes in his people and he believes in his plan.
When the fanbase absolutely believes neither, and is essentially told - yet again - to be patient, depression sets in.
I'm signing off, probably for the duration of the season unless something notable happens. I like this place most of the time, but sharing in the lamentations isn't really my thing.
The past few days brought back some good hockey talk though. Thanks for that.
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28 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:
Would like to see Z moved. He has been a good soldier for a long time and deserves a chance in the playoffs.
Guy’s game is built for he playoffs. If I’m a contender Is jump on him for my 4th line
So have we kept him?
Honestly, I think I'd rather watch him and VO than Tyson Jost and Brett Murray down the stretch if we were only getting a couple fifths.
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2 minutes ago, Thorny said:
Benson - Cozens - Quinn
Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Greenway - Krebs -
Skinner - -
Byram - DahlinSamuelsson - Power
Johnson - Clifton/Jokiharju
UPL
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Backup goalie, and a few good, 2-way competent veteran depth forwards. Prefer a “middle 6” designation, tbh. I’m not talking Jost level depth
You alluded to it earlier, but Benson's playmaking and Thompson's physical gifts always made sense to me.
First thing I though of when we picked him was "Skinner replacement"
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12 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
Does the stance of the franchise not concern you? Young guys come and get playing time in the NHL, get developed and develop yourself, then get traded ... We'll make sure it's a good spot for ya. Vets come do your time in Hockey Hell as someone out it and when the time comes get traded. Good spot, we promise.
Nothing about that screams winning culture.
Yes.
I don't think Mitts for Byram is that — Byram is a Stanley Cup winning top 4 NHL defenceman with upside, not a prospect and a pick.
Okposo played here for 8 years and was the captain, so he's not just any player.
And Johnson is simply done. Trading him to the highest bidder is GM 101.
But it certainly happened with Ullmark and Reinhart and O'Reilly, so the parallels are easy to draw and the track record is impossible to ignore.
Nothing screams winning culture like winning.
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Saw that one coming.
RJ needed to be on the clear-day roster so he can help Roch on a playoff run and Tyson was the most logical call-up to fill in for the trades.
2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:RJ is so mad. That party at Krebsies was gonna be eppppiiiccc.
I think Ryan is more likely to upset over missing the prayer meetings than the parties, but to each his own I guess.
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6 minutes ago, Marvin said:
With Mittelstadt, we could in theory have rolled out a trio of 2Cs with 3 roughly equal lines and tried to win that way.
It's what I would have done and thought was the plan looking at all the very talented, but probably not elite pieces we had up front.
The reason I'm not dismissing the trade is because, in theory, having three 1st-pairing defencemen is also path that could work.
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44 minutes ago, SwampD said:
On a Stanley Cup hopeful. He has value.
And contrary to what people think, the Sabres got worse today, at least for the rest of this year.
Watching the forwards last night without Mitts and Tage got me thinking about how bad it's going to look subbing guys like Rousek and Jost in for guys who can hold their own against NHLers like Kyle and Gus.
Might get ugly.
34 minutes ago, pastajoe said:Those criticizing the return have to realize that it was done more as a gift to Okposo to have one last try at a Cup. He was never going to garner any worthwhile return.
31 minutes ago, #freejame said:Yeah they don't realize nobody wanted him. He was traded for nothing to probably one of the only playoff teams willing to give him a slot.
I doubt there were many contenders who wouldn't be interested in a 220-pound leader with 12 goals and experience on both special teams. It's the epitome of the kind of depth guy that gets traded at the deadline.
He was sent to the team he wanted to go to and feels gives him the best shot at winning a cup before he retires. Doesn't hurt that his short time there will be spent in nice weather, hanging out with his good buddy Sam.
This had nothing to do with shopping for the best return. Kyle called his shot and Adams got what he could. This was a reward.
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It's their biggest issue this year.
Not the hoary Sabrespace cliches of "grit" and "defence"
Last year Tuch/Thompson/Skinner was one of the best lines in hockey. This year, they're a decent NHL 2nd line.
I've maintained that for the current build to work it needs Power, Dahlin and now Byram to provide elite play-driving from the back end.
But Thompson still has to be a game-breaker up front — not necessarily elite, but 40-goal dangerous.
EDIT: when the ***** will I remember it's Byram, not Byrum.
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32 minutes ago, Thorny said:
Byram - Dahlin
Johnson - Power
Samuelsson - Clifton
… has a chance to be pretty fun and formidable if there’s a strong UPL and Vet backup/absolutely ready Levi combo behind it.
I think it will be Jokiharju not Johnson.
But either way, I agree.
We make a big deal about their youth — and it's relevant — but Henri and Ras are now vets by games played and Clifton by age. Power will be in his 3rd season and Byram and Samuelsson their fourth.
There's good size, elite skating, good compete and well above-average puck skills.
Hopefully the experience factor clicks.
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The Panthers wanted to send a contract out to balance the one coming in and he's the most disposable player they have under contract.
He's Jonathan Parker or Riley Boychuk.
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Pure favour to the captain: Adams moved him to a place where he wanted to go.
Sjalin is not a real prospect and will never play in Buffalo.
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1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
None of this can happen with the current coaching staff and without at least one or two legit playmakers added to this forward group. We no longer have any forwards who can drive offense unless Benson takes a major leap forward next season. We also have a series of square pegs that we are trying to drive into round holes on defense. The D structure was made worse by adding Byram. We don't have enough defenders who actually play defense well. We also aren't physical enough at forward or defense. The team's improved defensive numbers come primarily from the improved play of UPL. We have allowed the 8th most HDC in the NHL and our HDSA are worse than last year.
You're really taking the loss of Mitts hard aren't you?
I will say that last night certainly did nothing to prove you wrong.
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2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
Who? What playmaking wingers? Quinn is not a playmaker. Never has been. Benson is the closest and he hasn't exactly created much offense as a rookie despite max effort. JJP and Tuch have good passing skills, but again are more scorer than playmaker.
Of the guys coming up only Östlund is a playmaker in the true sense of he word. Rosen is more in the Tuch/JJP mold and Krebs is just bad.
I don't know, I see Quinn carrying the puck, creating open ice for his mates and dishing it off to Cozens and Peterka all the time.
He had 35 assists in 45 games as an AHL rookie and has an assist every 3 games as a young NHLer. I think he can be a 40-assist guy in the NHL.
Benson shows similar traits in terms of creating space and finding teammates. He had 62 assists in 60 games as a 17-year-old.
Who knows how that eventually translates at an NHL level, but it's in their games.
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Prior to the deadline I absolutely wanted:
- A 2-way match-up forward who can be trusted against good players in tough situations
- A big-body forward who gets to the net
- An agitating forward who can forecheck
- A legitimate top 4 defenceman
- A new backup goalie
Like his profile or not, Byram crossed the D-man off the list, but losing Mittelstadt means at least one of the forwards should be of 2nd-line calibre.
At least one of the skaters should have an intimidation factor, at least one needs to be a respected leader, and all 3 need to be competitive.
The three new forwards will be replacing Okposo, Girgensons and Mittelstadt on the everyday roster. Olofsson's replacement as the offensive spare forward comes from the prospect pool. The defensive spare forward should be a meaner Robinson.
I think the 8 guys we have on the blueline right now are coming back. I'd flip one for a similar level player who adds more edge if I could.
I'm going to count on the increased offence coming from in-house: a mix of Tuch, Thompson, Quinn, Peterka, Cozens and Benson.
A key part of that should come from a complete revamp of the power play. I need someone to draw attention from Dahlin and Thompson and/or take advantage of the attention they get. I'm intrigued by Byram and I'm looking hard at Jack Quinn, who was deadly on the PP as an Amerk. Skinner is off my PP1.
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24 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
Does this trade happen if KA is not on an owner imposed salary cap?
Bowen Byram makes a little more than Casey Mittelstadt but is also one year further away from getting a raise.
I think Adams was reluctant to commit long-term to 3 $7M centres (many Sabrespacers felt the same way) but whether that's about managing to the real cap, or an artificial cap, it's open to speculation. Byram creates a similar question on D.
Sabres are about $6M under this years cap.
They are $21M under next years cap with 10 roster holes to fill. Okposo, Girgensons, UPL, Jokiharju and Krebs are the most prominent players needing to be replaced or re-signed
The following year they are a projected $36M under, with Greenway, Peterka, Quinn, Byram, Johnson and Levi the most prominent free agents.
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Some more on Byram from the Athletic:
Byram’s on-ice results have never really been stellar aside from that one playoff run, but that’s partially due to injury troubles and having to play with basically everyone but Nathan MacKinnon’s line in Colorado. The team’s depth has taken a serious hit since its Stanley Cup win in 2022 and that limits Byram’s teammate quality given Cale Makar spends so much time with MacKinnon. In previous years he looked like a serious driver when it comes to individual possession-driving and it shows in Corey Sznajder’s tracked data.
Just last year Byram had the profile of a future star in the right situation: someone who can move the puck well in the defensive zone, defend his own blue line, rush up ice and create a serious amount of chances in the offensive zone. There may be other stuff he doesn’t do well that hampered his on-ice results, but skill-wise it looked like Byram had it. His puck efficiency was tremendous across the board.
That’s all changed this year; none of those facets have been true and he’s been below average in every regard except rushing up ice. It’s been a night-and-day change, one that speaks to a need for a change of scenery where he can show more in a top-four role.
Byram wasn’t getting that in Colorado, but he should get more opportunity in Buffalo — even with Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power around on the left side.
This deal may not look perfectly fair at the moment, but everything hinges on what Byram can become. The talent and opportunity are there for him to make this a win for the Sabres. Can he take advantage of it?
https://theathletic.com/5321783/2024/03/07/16-stats-mittelstadt-byram-colton-parayko-islanders/
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4 hours ago, nfreeman said:
I am highly skeptical that KA could've gotten more for Mitts than Byram. Frankly, I'm pretty surprised he got that much.
The price for Mitts level player is generally a mid- to late-1st and an equivalent prospect.
You'd never get 4th overall for that package.
So the pertinent question is why has Byram's stock dropped, and is it justified.
5 hours ago, Brawndo said:I do believe this is the first in series of moves.
Could Jokiharju be on the move by Friday?
If you ignore handedness and go by contract and skillset, its a no-brainer that Henri gets moved now.
But the handedness thing just makes it weird. (As an aside, Henri's play this year is the most under-discussed Sabres positive)
I can see a world where Ras is RD1 and Henri and Cliffy are 5 and 6 by ice time, but one of them is on the RD2 in terms of the lineup card
Most pissed-off guy on the team has to be Ryan Johnson. (As an aside, if you're honest with yourself, Bryson has outplayed him since he's been called up)
3 hours ago, Brawndo said:Chucking him out there with Ras is so on-brand for Buffalo.
3 hours ago, ... said:I didn't like him at all until about a month and half ago when it became apparent what he was trying to do, other than scoring, was working more than it was not. If we gave Mitts 7 years to develop the game he just left us with, we can give Krebs the rest of this season to develop his. I think they're relatively similar except Krebs will actually do stupid things like hit other players and be an agitator.
I've said it before, in his 3rd pro season Mittelstadt was putting up 22 points while going in and out of the lineup.
Krebs has an interesting opportunity here.
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Thought people might be interested in Byram's Elite Prospects scouting report from his draft year:
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/326522/bowen-byram
An exceptionally gifted defenceman who knows his strengths and plays by them. He possesses elite skating ability and is at his best when playing high energy, up-tempo hockey. He handles the puck well and is able to keep control of it under pressure. He makes calculated decisions that consistently shift momentum in his team's favor. His creativity in the offensive zone speaks to his confidence in his ability to be a game-changer.
Defensively astute, he actively takes away lanes and limits options for the oncoming opposition. All-in-all, Bowen Byram is a workhorse who understands how to take advantage of turnovers and shift the pace of play in his favor in all three zones. (Curtis Joe, EP 2019
He’s an excellent skater, with good balance, explosiveness and a high-end top-gear., EPrinkside.com 2019
Byram does a good job of holding the blue line, and he uses an active stick to interrupt passing lanes and disrupt oncoming puck-carriers, EPrinkside.com 2019
The best aspect of his hockey-sense is his ability to rapidly process the play. This extends to all three-zones, Hockeyprospect.com 2019
Possessing excellent vision, creativity and awareness, he’s a highly-precise passer, Future Considerations 2019
He is a near elite passer from the blueline, just as comfortable with a short pass as with a stretch pass, or flip pass, McKeen's Hockey 2019And from the Athletic:
5. Bowen Byram — LHD, Vancouver Giants, 6-foot-0
I’ve already broken down Byram’s game as the best defenceman in the draft and a frontrunner for third overall in considerably more detail but the short of it is that while there is still work to be done on his defensive play, particularly with his effort and his spacial awareness within defensive zone schemes, Byram is one of the better goal scoring defencemen the NHL draft has seen in recent memory. Furthermore, he is an excellent three-zone passer and a strong skater who can recover from mistakes made pushing the play into the high slot if the puck goes back the other way. And he just keeps getting better, and better and better. The Byram of the last half of the season and into the playoffs was one of the best players in junior hockey.
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9 hours ago, mjd1001 said:
I'm guessing here, but long term, I think the goal would be for Byram and Power to get about 18-19 minutes even strenght per game. They seem to want to use Power on the PK, so Byram can take the role of 2nd unit PP Qb. They both end up with 20-22 minutes per game that way, HOPEFULLY bringing Dahlin down to the 23-24 range (he is over 25 now)
If it works the way it's envisioned you're going to see Byram used largely like you see Power used.
I know it's pretty much vanished around the league, but I think you may see the Sabres bringing back a PP with 2 real blueliners on it.
9 hours ago, #freejame said:If he’s healthy I don’t think people will end up disappointed with Bryam. It’s just not the best use of assets imo.
I think this is the most realistic reaction for this exact moment in time.
9 hours ago, rickshaw said:It’s not the worst deal but it leads me to believe more is in the works.
I know it’s potential but our defense could be serious in a few years if they can add some right handed players.
The Avs made this deal work for them by dumping Johanssen and adding Walker.
I'm not sure about the D — I kinda think we are going to run with our top 4 in ice time all being LH next year — but removing Casey certainly opens space under the cap and on the roster for a more robust, hard-nosed middle-six forward.
8 hours ago, Thorny said:I mean, they are 2.5 years apart. If you keep Casey yes you have the better player now, and maybe Byram’s improvement gets him back to what he was. But why isn’t Casey being afforded that same likelihood? If I had to guess who was more likely to improve, I’d go with Casey, given trajectory
Also I don’t really agree with the Tuch comp. Casey is younger, and also Tuch was in the midst of a career outlier season. Casey’s saw a progression and back to back 60 point seasons
Definitely disagree with the bolded. Casey may have an outlier season in him, but as a 25-year-old centre with more than 300 games, I think what we've seen the past 2 years is basically what we're going to get with Casey.
As a 22-year-old D with 140 games played, Byram definitely has a lot more runway. First comparable that popped in to my mind is Morgan Reilly, who's not dissimilar in pedigree. Byram has 63 points in his first 143 NHL games, Reilly had 59 in his first 154. Noah Hanifin had 54 in his first 160. Miro Heiskanen 68 in 150. Byram's no Quinn Hughes, but he's got plenty of room to grow.
8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:or getting a concussion victim who will never be the same (see Tim Connolly for example) for a player just maturing into stardom (see Sam Reinhart for example).
This is a realistic worst-case scenario.
8 hours ago, Thorny said:Question: As mentioned, I can definitely see the talent with Byram. From a team building standpoint I find it confusing. But, for someone/those more confident than me in this trade ending up beneficial: Do you see the trade potentially improving the team as soon as next season? Would you argue that is likely? Or is that more best case scenario, with your likely estimation being we see net improvement further down the line?
What say you? I’m open to the idea Byram could end up the better player but it literally only matters, for me, if it can happen for next season
It's pretty damn hard to predict when a talented young player will cement himself as simply a very good player. Byram hasn't done that yet.
That said, Byrum for Eric Johnson should improve the defence corps.
Your answer is more likely to come from how the other pieces fit as referenced in my reply to @rickshaw: how Adams replaces Casey and the other players that move on from this .500 team. These things don't happen in a vacuum. I don't think the issues with this year's Sabres are mostly about talent.
7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:It's just confusing from a team building perspective and if he doesn't stay healthy or return to form, we fail... again.
Maybe a team doesn't have to be built in the mould of 1999 Devils. Maybe it's OK having a really talented attacking defenceman on the ice at all times? it never hurt the '70s Habs.
Maybe all that matters is your guy being better than the other guy and the 'how' doesn't matter?
Because even though I like the player, he certainly isn't the profile I would have targeted.
7 hours ago, Believer said:Adams hasn’t shown trade chops yet… Mitts for Byram is a start, if Byram stays healthy…
Will be impressed if he moves Samuelson while he has high value for a RH top 4 D in late 20’s… or Tuch for a 20+ goal scorer who plays a physical 200 ft game, likes to be at the net, and goes every game.
Show us what you got Adams. You sure sold Pegula… Show us you can sell Buffalo.
I think this trade should obliterate the narrative that Adams doesn't have the balls to trade away pieces from the happy-to-be-here group, or the one that he's unwilling to take a risk.
I also wondering why we haven't heard much celebration from the 'wake up the pampered country club' crowd. In my view Adams couldn't have fired a clearer shot across that bow than trading your leading scorer, hugely popular dressing room figure and party house host.
7 hours ago, Derrico said:Just as much risk we overpay Mitts and he reverts to who he has been most of his career.
I don't believe this will happen, but it's just as legitimate a worry as Byram going full Ryan Murray.
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Guy this affects the most off the hop is Peyton Krebs, who should be the 3C for the remainder of the year, and with the likely moves of Girgs and Okposo moves from 10-11 on the depth chart to more like a 7-8 slot.
Looks like that really was a test drive they gave him a week or so back.
Kevyn and Don, should we really expect more after four years?
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by dudacek
While my previous post is my direct answer to @tom webster's thread-starting question, I think I also need to answer his subtext: and that is not whether this season is a failure, but whether this rebuild and its architects are a failure.
And my answer to that is: not yet, but crunch time is arriving.
Adams made no secret of the fact that his plan was to collect a critical mass of young talent, then have it learn and grow together into a team that could contend for a decade. Our cynics rolled their eyes at that as just a way of making his leash as long as possible. But I believe it is a legitimate path to success and one I think works if you are right on your talent evaluations.
Because Jeff Skinner is an outlier.
Skinner made the NHL at 18, scored 30 goals and 65 points, played crappy defence and got under a lot of people’s skins. He’s been that player for most of his 14 seasons and he remains that player today.
But — like Webster’s opening post implies — most NHL players and youthful rebuilds don’t work that way. Players arrive unfinished and spend a few years learning how they can best succeed at NHL hockey. They don’t establish a level and an identity until sometime into their 3rd or 4th season, after they have 200 or 300 games under their belts.
Consider these Sabres:
The first 3 are now young veterans and key members of Adams handpicked core. And as much as many of you hate this, the rest of his “blinding light brigade” is still cooking:
This season failed because that group was not good enough yet and because Adams and Granato didn’t give them the support they needed. And they need to make sure they don’t repeat the latter mistake this summer. But - like it or not - their big picture plan succeeds or fails on how many of those young players take a step and their windows are just starting to open.
Many of you will see it differently, but I see the first 2 seasons of the Adams rebuild as successful in terms of the path he was walking. Season 3 has been a failure, but I have no interest in firing him at this point. Growth is never smooth. He gets a chance to react and adjust to this year.
Granato, I like and want to see succeed, but this is pro sports. I make the call on his future based on player interviews and his plans for revamping his staff and fixing the offence. If I decide to retain him, it’s on a short leash.
But chucking the plan at this juncture seems premature to me.