dudacek
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Posts posted by dudacek
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Whatever should happen, what will happen is Granato will be back with a few new assistants, most significantly Seth Appert, who will be the coach in waiting if the Sabres are sucking in November.
That’s how Adams rolls.
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6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
I only believe in the drafting as long as Ventura and Karmanos are here. It's fairly obvious to me that Forton shouldn't be the main voice in the draft room, too many old man hockey vibe picks from his lot.
Is this mostly or entirely about Leinonen?
Forton has overseen 3 drafts. This kinda feels like you're arbitrarily deciding he got talked into "good" picks and owns the "bad" ones.
I've always kinda thought Leinonen was a Kevyn Adams call; as in Adams decided he desperately needed to draft a goalie that year and was going to reach off his list to do it if he had to.
The guy(s) who honed in on Leinonen specifically to be that goalie, I have no idea.
Well, actually I have no idea about any of this; it's just the impression I got from talk in and around the pick.
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47 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:
I still Power has 2 issues right now in his game:
-He struggles with confidence. When the Sabres are playing 'lesser' teams or 'non-superstar players' he doesn't have this. But its like...when you put an elite player on the ice, he gets a little awe-struck. Now I know one might say against elite talent on the ice ANYONE will not do as well simply because the players on the other team are that good. But, its a little beyond that. I have noticed that with the puck on his stick carrying it out of the zone, he will carry it a bit more, or look to make a better pass most of the time, but when there is a 'superstar' on the other team on the ice, he will get rid of the puck quicker, or make a really quick, short, sometimes clumsy pass. The key is, that is even when he isn't being pressured. He doesn't seem to want the puck as much in those situations. This is anectdotal, I have no stats to back it up but it seems to happen enough that I notice it.
-Physically, he seems to struggle more against smaller/faster players. Austin Matthews is great, but not exactly a small nimble speedster. I don't seem to remember him really getting 'turned inside out' by Matthews over and over. But its the small guys, the quick, darting/water-bug type skaters he doesn't handle much. He has the size, an the reach where I'm sure he can and will learn to denend them better, but he isn't there yet.
So again, I dont' have any stats to back this up, but from watching him play, its just the 2 things I think he needs to work on the most...from just observation and my own personal 'eye test'.
I haven't particularly noticed the "against stars" thing, but I'll watch for it, and it fits.
Owen Power still across as a baby in terms of his maturity. He comes across as a responsible, polite, kinda nerdy introvert whose mom and dad always loved him, and is quitting his job packing groceries to head off to college.
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3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:
Do you think the Sabres are a really good team?
No. Do you think what any fan thinks about that matters much in the context of this conversation?
Do you think him saying “I believe in my teammates and I’m not going to rest until we reach the playoffs” is not representing the team well in the community or the media, or setting a good tone for his teammates?
I know some of you look at the “youth” thing as an excuse and I buy that in terms of Adams could have and still can get older players.
But in terms of the locker room, I see it as simple truth: many of these players are talented and inexperienced and should get better.
And if I’m leading this group, that’s an integral part of the message I’m sending the Powers and the Peterkas and any other kids Adams sends my way: I believe in you guys; if you keep working and learning, you will have success. And then I hold them accountable for getting better.
There may be flaws in its execution, or the players receiving it, but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the message.
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1 hour ago, Thorny said:
What did Dahlin say? I heard Tuch parrot it but missed have missed it
Well there’s this unforgivable comment
“I want the Buffalo Sabres in the playoffs, and I’m never going to give up, and I think we’re close,” Dahlin said prior to Thursday’s 4-2 win over the Washington Capitals in the home finale at KeyBank Center. “I think we are a really good team. I think we’re the youngest team in the league, so, well, it sucked that we didn’t get in, but we have learned so many things from this year that we have to bring into next year and get better.”
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16 minutes ago, Thorny said:
Not saying you are doing this but I don’t think the answer is ever “well next year we’ll be healthy.” Which is I think the connotation of the above, in a sense. If we get Jack Quinn back for a full year, rest assured there will be a different guy we say, “if we only had him the whole time.” It’s just how injuries work. We’ll make the playoffs next year if the team is good enough even AFTER the inevitable key injuries. That’s the depth we need. And it requires a more practical approach.
We can imagine how good we’d be with Quinn this year, but we have to go through the roster of every other team we are competing with and give them back a player they’ve missed too
You have been very pointed about saying “leave no stone unturned”.
This year is why.
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On 4/11/2024 at 9:10 AM, PASabreFan said:
I pretty much say the same thing every season. You won't find any record of me predicting out of the playoffs or 103.25478 points.
I am arguing against hopelessness bc in the realm of sports there should be no such thing. The Sabres are bad but could easily make the playoffs next season with a little tweaking or no tweaking at all.
It's a low bar. I've hardly been brainwashed by The Cackler.
This is amazing to me:
- The Sabres, Devils and Red Wings each have 38 wins.
- The Islanders, Flyers, Penguins and Capitals each have 37.
Three of those teams will make the playoffs. Four will not.
Anybody who watches hockey knows the difference between each of those teams is a few deflections here and a few bobbled passes there.
What’s been so confounding about the current team for me is not that they are terrible like most Sabres teams of the past decade, it’s that they are finally good enough to be part of the great band of mediocre that comprises about 40% of the NHL.
And they still didn’t make it. Twice.
It simply shouldn’t be that hard to find the one straw that pushes them to the front of that pack.
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16 hours ago, Billznut said:
Don’t know how much it’ll mean, but Hoppe goes WAY back with Pegula. Knew him decades ago and has kept close with Terry over the years. He doesn’t trumpet it often, but he’s mentioned it before. So the article could be conjecture on his part, but he also may have spoken to Pegula and Pegula asked him not to attribute anything to him directly. We will all know soon enough if this article is accurate or not.
1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:Intrasting.
Hoppe has gotta be at least 2 decades younger than Terry.
Are you sure you aren’t mixing him up with another suburban sportswriter, Chuck Pollock?
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21 minutes ago, Derrico said:
How many times has this been refuted? Who is refuting it? He traded a ton of draft capital in his short tenure. I'm not sure how its even debatable.
https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray
I’ve given up responding, but all the homework is on the site somewhere.
He did trade a ton of draft capital, but he also acquired a ton of draft capital.
I believe the net was he acquired more than he dealt. No one remembers Chris Stewart for a 2nd, or Matt Moulson for 2 2nds.
Not sure if this is comprehensive but it will give you a general overview.
http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_GM/Tim_Murray/274
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54 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
Not that it matters, but 26 is just bracing for impact with his forearms up around his head as the Capitals come flying in. The linesman comes around and grabs him, I think, in an effort to protect him from a 2-on-1?
My point was that Dahlin hardly seemed “not in it with them” like Inky suggests. He was engaged the entire time with 2 caps and a linesman. (Unlike a certain #8)
This one shows Dahlin starting things in response to Oshie’s hit on Tage.
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Yep, 26 was basically grabbed by the official from the beginning but he was swinging and his gloves come off.
Basically, it should have been him and Oshie, but Strome and the ref grabbed Dahlin and Clifton grabbed Oshie
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29 minutes ago, inkman said:
His hit started it but he’s gotta grab someone there. All your teammates did, not doing so shows that you aren’t in it with them.
Guess I gotta rewatch, but my memory was Dahlin being heavily engaged with someone in the scrum while the linesman was draped all over him and TJ Oshie was jumping on his back. Then he and Oshie got engaged directly with more official interference.
He was definitely in the thick of things.
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1 minute ago, Brawndo said:
FWIW a lot of analytics staffs are moving away from NHLe as it has not been translating well across the various leagues
Not something I personally put a ton of stock in.
I was actually most interested in the fact of how close the three were using that calculation given how hard it is to compare their three different leagues.
I think we all have our favourites when it comes to playing armchair GM, but until they're all Sabres — or at least Amerks — it's pretty hard to tell which is better kept and which should be dangled.
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45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Was that Savoie's based on the season he played or projected out to 82 nhl games?
Points per game projected over 82 games for each
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I saw Kulich, Savoie and Östlund's stats this year run through an NHLe calculator this week: 24, 24 and 28 points respectively over a full NHL season.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
Tuch doing the final game fan appreciation thing made me wonder.........................
He did it because he was the Rick Martin Award winner.
Anyone who doesn't think it's going to be Dahlin hasn't been paying attention.
Neither has anyone who doesn't think it should be Dahlin.
I honestly wonder if there's some weird mix of Euro-bias and people who are still thinking of 18-year-old Dahlin when this conversation happens.
He's the best player, the hardest worker, the guy who sticks his nose in the most, and the guy who cares the most.
I hope the "stand-up for his teammates" crowd was watching how that meeting of the minds at the end of tonight's game got started.
If his name Stemhavolinski and he had a five-o'clock shadow the poll would be unanimous.
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41 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
The problem with this is we have all this awesomeness and it doesn't amount to much in the standings. I bet similar glistening analytical evaluations can be offered for several other Sabres.
It has to be reconciled with the eye test... Of actual games and actual standings.
It would seem to point to coaching and a losing culture.
Maybe.
But if you applied a similar exercise this year to Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Skinner I doubt the results would be nearly as shiny, especially when you add the power play to the equation.
Whether it's commitment, culture, coaching or circumstance at fault, a significant portion of the failures of this season can be laid at the feet of our top forwards.
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18 minutes ago, Weave said:
The hate is really minimal. Folks can’t criticize without being labeled a hater. SMH
My only complaint is that he really works to avoid contact. Before anyone responds with something, something, Pronger, something. The vast majority of us mentioning his avoidance of contact are not expecting a banger. It’s simply that, were he to use his physical frame to wedge and trap guys along the boards or box out forwards in the front of the net, his play would improve even more. It’s such an obvious gap in his game.
Absolutely this. Power still plays the game too often like he's a full-grown man playing against a pack of 12-year-olds and he doesn't want to hurt or embarrass anybody.
What I need to see from him is less about punishing people and more about defensive assertiveness.
His is a game is built on patience, finesse and thinking one step ahead, but there are so many instances where what's needed is just the simple elimination of "your" man. You don't need to hurt him, you don't need to worry about your next play, you just need to step up with authority to prevent him from making his.
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I thought this was interesting:
ES points
- Adam Fox 37
- Owen Power 26
Hits
- Adam Fox 43
- Owen Power 43
Blocked shots
- Adam Fox 116
- Owen Power 109
giveaways/60
- Adam Fox 1.18
- Owen Power 1.29
penalties taken/60
- Adam Fox 0.67
- Owen Power. 0.36
ES ice time
- Adam Fox 18:26
- Owen Power 19.:29
Possession
- Adam Fox 53.7
- Owen Power 51.8
Goals for %
- Adam Fox 54.4
- Owen Power 54.2
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Here are some things people should know about contracts before they dig in about Owen Power:
- This year he had the salary cap hit of a 7th defenceman ($916K)
- This year, the median 1st-pairing defenceman cap hit was about $6.5M
- Next year he will be paid like an above-average 1st-pairing defenceman ($8.35M)
- Next year, the median 1st-pairing defenceman cap hit will be between $7-7.5M (depending on free agent signings)
- Every year for the next 7, Power's contract will likely be passed by a handful of players until at the end of his contract he will be getting paid like a good 2nd-pairing defenceman
Here are some things people should know about performance before they dig in about Owen Power:
- he produced total points like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he produced ES points like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he ate ice time like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he threw hits like a borderline 2nd/3rd pairing defenceman
- he blocked shots like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he avoided giveaways like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he forced takeaways like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he avoided taking penalties like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the shot attempt possession numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the goals-for-% numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the expected-goals-for numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the expected-goals-against numbers of a 2nd-pairing defenceman
And by 1st, 2nd and 3rd, I mean he ranked in the top, middle or bottom 3rd of the league's defencemen who played at least 60 games.
He's also apparently the NHL's best stretch passer but I could not find any stats on zone exits created or prevented.
He was one of just 6 U22 defencemen to play 70 NHL games this year.
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Haven't really watched Novikov this year so it's hard for me to compare.
But Samuelsson was a noticeable stud at the AHL level: offensively fine and defensively dominant.
If Novikov is near that level as a rookie, I'd be pleasantly surprised and pretty excited.
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14 hours ago, French Collection said:
I see Novikov got a goal and 2 assists tonight for the Amerks. Mule had better watch out.
4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends.
1 hour ago, tom webster said:I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.
While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.
For context, the article ranks Samuelsson 15th in the entire league.
His peers include Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, Brady Skjei and Brayden McNabb
Mattias Samuelsson’s promising defensive profile explains why the Sabres signed him to a seven-year, $4.285 million AAV extension at the start of last season. The problem? He can’t seem to stay healthy. The hulking 24-year-old defenseman was limited to 41 games this season and 55 the year before. Durability, not talent, is the concern with Samuelsson and his contract right now.
The model weighs heavily for tough matchups and top 4 ice time and is only about shot suppression during ES play.
The author (Harman Dayal) says:
This is, of course, only an analytical perspective. The numbers obviously can’t capture everything, especially for defense. That means this exercise isn’t so much a definitive ranking, but rather a conversation starter. You can look at the initial list and then apply your own eye test, context and knowledge — it’s all about how you interpret the data. There will be plenty of quality shutdown defenders who don’t land on this list.
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
I agree. Dahlin is a top 5 defender in the league that we don't appreciate enough. He can do things that only 2-3 other guys in the league can do. He also has greatly increased his defensive skill over the years and if you watch him live in particular, he does a ton of little things to shut plays down before anything exciting happens. Rasmus Dahlin deserves a better team. His teammates owe him more than they gave this season. For all the talk around here of Tuch being captain, Dahlin is the leader IMO. Guy has 20 less assists than last year because his team can't score for *****. Still leads the team in points and is 5th in goals, as a defender. Rasmus Dahlin is probably the best defender to ever wear blue and gold.
Thank you, particularly for the bold.
From reading this place I sometimes think people judge defence on
- Is he mugging a guy when the puck goes to our netfront?
- How many bad passes did he make (only the bad ones matter)?
- Is he on the screen when a goal gets scored?
I wish people would also pay attention to the amount of rushes or defensive zone attacks broken up or deflected into corners, the amount of pucks routinely knocked off, or prevented from getting to, sticks, the number of contested pucks won, and how often a player executes safe exits.
Routinely good defence rarely makes highlight packages because it usually means nothing exciting happened.
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22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
You can argue the details but there has been a drop off and sometimes dramatic (Skinner). The point for me really is if we keep rewarding big seasons for individuals on a loser team we will be stuck with a loser team. The make up of this team needs to change and not every goal scorer can have a place in it.
If Peterka is your guy and you want to roll the dice on him as a top liner winger you can do that, but you better be sure he is the guy who can deliver the goods consistently. So really, to me, it depends on his ask. If he wants 20 goal scorer money great, if he wants top line money, that's another story and then I'm not so sure so imo better to place safe and bridge.
The bolded is a far more salient point.
The flip side of “lock ‘em up while you can still afford them”.
Pretty hard to judge Adams 1 year into a half-dozen long-term deals.
But each one he adds makes the next one harder to accommodate and he has to get most of them right.
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Sabres Prospect Updates 23-24
in The Aud Club
Posted
Don’t need to tell you guys about the flaws of +/-.
But within that context it does give you some indication of how successful a player has been in his role and relative to his team.
On a team that is -7, 20-year-old Nikita Novikov is +19, far and away the best on the Amerks.
He has 23 points in 62 games.
No idea what the underlying metrics and eye test is saying, but the numbers look promising.
Mattias Samuelsson had 12 points in 23 games as a 20-year-old rookie, and was -8 on an inferior Amerks team.