dudacek
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Posts posted by dudacek
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1 minute ago, Brawndo said:
FWIW a lot of analytics staffs are moving away from NHLe as it has not been translating well across the various leagues
Not something I personally put a ton of stock in.
I was actually most interested in the fact of how close the three were using that calculation given how hard it is to compare their three different leagues.
I think we all have our favourites when it comes to playing armchair GM, but until they're all Sabres — or at least Amerks — it's pretty hard to tell which is better kept and which should be dangled.
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45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Was that Savoie's based on the season he played or projected out to 82 nhl games?
Points per game projected over 82 games for each
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I saw Kulich, Savoie and Östlund's stats this year run through an NHLe calculator this week: 24, 24 and 28 points respectively over a full NHL season.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
Tuch doing the final game fan appreciation thing made me wonder.........................
He did it because he was the Rick Martin Award winner.
Anyone who doesn't think it's going to be Dahlin hasn't been paying attention.
Neither has anyone who doesn't think it should be Dahlin.
I honestly wonder if there's some weird mix of Euro-bias and people who are still thinking of 18-year-old Dahlin when this conversation happens.
He's the best player, the hardest worker, the guy who sticks his nose in the most, and the guy who cares the most.
I hope the "stand-up for his teammates" crowd was watching how that meeting of the minds at the end of tonight's game got started.
If his name Stemhavolinski and he had a five-o'clock shadow the poll would be unanimous.
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41 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:
The problem with this is we have all this awesomeness and it doesn't amount to much in the standings. I bet similar glistening analytical evaluations can be offered for several other Sabres.
It has to be reconciled with the eye test... Of actual games and actual standings.
It would seem to point to coaching and a losing culture.
Maybe.
But if you applied a similar exercise this year to Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Skinner I doubt the results would be nearly as shiny, especially when you add the power play to the equation.
Whether it's commitment, culture, coaching or circumstance at fault, a significant portion of the failures of this season can be laid at the feet of our top forwards.
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18 minutes ago, Weave said:
The hate is really minimal. Folks can’t criticize without being labeled a hater. SMH
My only complaint is that he really works to avoid contact. Before anyone responds with something, something, Pronger, something. The vast majority of us mentioning his avoidance of contact are not expecting a banger. It’s simply that, were he to use his physical frame to wedge and trap guys along the boards or box out forwards in the front of the net, his play would improve even more. It’s such an obvious gap in his game.
Absolutely this. Power still plays the game too often like he's a full-grown man playing against a pack of 12-year-olds and he doesn't want to hurt or embarrass anybody.
What I need to see from him is less about punishing people and more about defensive assertiveness.
His is a game is built on patience, finesse and thinking one step ahead, but there are so many instances where what's needed is just the simple elimination of "your" man. You don't need to hurt him, you don't need to worry about your next play, you just need to step up with authority to prevent him from making his.
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I thought this was interesting:
ES points
- Adam Fox 37
- Owen Power 26
Hits
- Adam Fox 43
- Owen Power 43
Blocked shots
- Adam Fox 116
- Owen Power 109
giveaways/60
- Adam Fox 1.18
- Owen Power 1.29
penalties taken/60
- Adam Fox 0.67
- Owen Power. 0.36
ES ice time
- Adam Fox 18:26
- Owen Power 19.:29
Possession
- Adam Fox 53.7
- Owen Power 51.8
Goals for %
- Adam Fox 54.4
- Owen Power 54.2
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Here are some things people should know about contracts before they dig in about Owen Power:
- This year he had the salary cap hit of a 7th defenceman ($916K)
- This year, the median 1st-pairing defenceman cap hit was about $6.5M
- Next year he will be paid like an above-average 1st-pairing defenceman ($8.35M)
- Next year, the median 1st-pairing defenceman cap hit will be between $7-7.5M (depending on free agent signings)
- Every year for the next 7, Power's contract will likely be passed by a handful of players until at the end of his contract he will be getting paid like a good 2nd-pairing defenceman
Here are some things people should know about performance before they dig in about Owen Power:
- he produced total points like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he produced ES points like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he ate ice time like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he threw hits like a borderline 2nd/3rd pairing defenceman
- he blocked shots like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he avoided giveaways like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he forced takeaways like a 2nd-pairing defenceman
- he avoided taking penalties like a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the shot attempt possession numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the goals-for-% numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the expected-goals-for numbers of a 1st-pairing defenceman
- he had the expected-goals-against numbers of a 2nd-pairing defenceman
And by 1st, 2nd and 3rd, I mean he ranked in the top, middle or bottom 3rd of the league's defencemen who played at least 60 games.
He's also apparently the NHL's best stretch passer but I could not find any stats on zone exits created or prevented.
He was one of just 6 U22 defencemen to play 70 NHL games this year.
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Haven't really watched Novikov this year so it's hard for me to compare.
But Samuelsson was a noticeable stud at the AHL level: offensively fine and defensively dominant.
If Novikov is near that level as a rookie, I'd be pleasantly surprised and pretty excited.
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14 hours ago, French Collection said:
I see Novikov got a goal and 2 assists tonight for the Amerks. Mule had better watch out.
4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:Novikov is going to be better than Samuelsson long before samuelsson's contract ends.
1 hour ago, tom webster said:I know LGRM doesn’t think much of Murl but there is an article today on the Athletic that has him ranked very high on list of shut down defenseman.
While you can debate the merits of both opinions and credentials of both people, what is indisputable is that with all the wisdom analytics has added to the conversation, there is still no absolute statistical program that is one hundred percent accurate in projecting future success or even quantify current performance except for one, wins and losses.
For context, the article ranks Samuelsson 15th in the entire league.
His peers include Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, Brady Skjei and Brayden McNabb
Mattias Samuelsson’s promising defensive profile explains why the Sabres signed him to a seven-year, $4.285 million AAV extension at the start of last season. The problem? He can’t seem to stay healthy. The hulking 24-year-old defenseman was limited to 41 games this season and 55 the year before. Durability, not talent, is the concern with Samuelsson and his contract right now.
The model weighs heavily for tough matchups and top 4 ice time and is only about shot suppression during ES play.
The author (Harman Dayal) says:
This is, of course, only an analytical perspective. The numbers obviously can’t capture everything, especially for defense. That means this exercise isn’t so much a definitive ranking, but rather a conversation starter. You can look at the initial list and then apply your own eye test, context and knowledge — it’s all about how you interpret the data. There will be plenty of quality shutdown defenders who don’t land on this list.
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
I agree. Dahlin is a top 5 defender in the league that we don't appreciate enough. He can do things that only 2-3 other guys in the league can do. He also has greatly increased his defensive skill over the years and if you watch him live in particular, he does a ton of little things to shut plays down before anything exciting happens. Rasmus Dahlin deserves a better team. His teammates owe him more than they gave this season. For all the talk around here of Tuch being captain, Dahlin is the leader IMO. Guy has 20 less assists than last year because his team can't score for *****. Still leads the team in points and is 5th in goals, as a defender. Rasmus Dahlin is probably the best defender to ever wear blue and gold.
Thank you, particularly for the bold.
From reading this place I sometimes think people judge defence on
- Is he mugging a guy when the puck goes to our netfront?
- How many bad passes did he make (only the bad ones matter)?
- Is he on the screen when a goal gets scored?
I wish people would also pay attention to the amount of rushes or defensive zone attacks broken up or deflected into corners, the amount of pucks routinely knocked off, or prevented from getting to, sticks, the number of contested pucks won, and how often a player executes safe exits.
Routinely good defence rarely makes highlight packages because it usually means nothing exciting happened.
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22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
You can argue the details but there has been a drop off and sometimes dramatic (Skinner). The point for me really is if we keep rewarding big seasons for individuals on a loser team we will be stuck with a loser team. The make up of this team needs to change and not every goal scorer can have a place in it.
If Peterka is your guy and you want to roll the dice on him as a top liner winger you can do that, but you better be sure he is the guy who can deliver the goods consistently. So really, to me, it depends on his ask. If he wants 20 goal scorer money great, if he wants top line money, that's another story and then I'm not so sure so imo better to place safe and bridge.
The bolded is a far more salient point.
The flip side of “lock ‘em up while you can still afford them”.
Pretty hard to judge Adams 1 year into a half-dozen long-term deals.
But each one he adds makes the next one harder to accommodate and he has to get most of them right.
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28 minutes ago, Thorny said:
I don’t mean to claim it’s not a justifiable risk: merely that’s it’s not such a sure thing, “only real option available, or worth considering” that if it doesn’t work, Adams isn’t amendable to result. It’s justifiable, but it’s also justifiable to want to bring in a more veteran back up so we have 2 kicks at the G2 can in training camp.
Going with UPL/Levi is defensible right now, in the moment, but that doesn’t stop it from being judged purely based on the results it yields.
Exactly. Like I said, “no stone unturned”. Our only difference is what we’d pay to bring in that competition, I guarantee it
Most poor decisions can be justified at the time. Most good decisions can be justifiably criticized at the time.
I thought Victor Olofsson could serve as adequate insurance for Jack Quinn because he scored 28 last year. I was wrong.
I thought the goalie situation was extraordinarily risky to start this year. Turns out Adams was right that his goalies were good enough, it just took him too long to figure out how to deploy them.
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Just now, Thorny said:
No, you are talking strategy. It’s not the same strategy, I get it. I said principle: the idea a victor will emerge from competition.
I’m not saying adding competition is bad. On the contrary, I’d like it.
I am saying it’s necessity at this position in my mind has greatly diminished.
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2 hours ago, Thorny said:
Adams employed this exact principle (to the detriment of the team, but eventual emergence of a candidate) this very season. 3 long shots led to one emergence. I’d give Levi some healthy competition for G2. I just wouldn’t enter into the season with 3 on active roster
But if they actually use training camp to get this team off and running as if their fans’ fandom depends on it (and it does), a nice healthy camp battle between Levi and a backup candidate better than, checks notes…Comrie is something I’d like to see
Yes, it’s not going to happen. I understand we have anointed him a spot. Adams is the “don’t block” guy not the “healthy competition” guy, in general. I get the idea he only defaulted to the “let these 3 duke it out” situation in net last year because Levi didn’t seize the role to the extent he thought he would
I also appreciate the fact I have to argue strenuously to support the idea that counting on a *20 year old* with all of 20 starts in his career, in year we HAVE to make the playoffs, to provide 30-35 quality starts MIGHT provide a bit of reason for pause…but such is the nature of the Adams’ era
If the best we can do in year 5 of a GM’s tenure is, “well, it might work out, we might make the playoffs, I don’t really see any less risky bets” then I suppose that’s the bed he’s made that he needs to lie in
But just because other options were also risky doesn’t mean he’s not amendable to the results of his equally risky bet. His job is to choose the course of action that yields the desired results, not merely make defensible decisions by prism of moment. It’s not a “what could even have been done?” situation if it doesn’t work out.
It’s not at all the same principle.
This year, three unproven goalies, toss them in a blender, and hope 2 emerge in some shape or form as a competent duo.
Next year, clear-cut #1 coming off a strong year, promising #2 who has looked fine in limited rookie sample size.
Devon Levi is 22, not 20, and he’ll turn 23 by Christmas. He’s 15-10-2 as an NHL goalie.
He’s also 11-5-3 with a .927 save percentage in the AHL after a few seasons of being one of the best goalies in NCAA.
Looking at the numbers, pencilling him in as 1 of 2 goalies this October is very much in line with doing the same for Jake Oettinger with Holtby in 20/21, or Jeremy Swayman with Ullmark in 21/22.
It’s a risk, but a justifiable one.
In fact, looking around the league, I’d wager the odds of having 2 good goalies at the same time is far more likely rolling the dice in this fashion than signing or trading for the “best goalie available.”
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Just so everybody is clear on the facts.
Dylan Cozens signed his extension in the middle of his career year.
Tage Thompson signed his big contract before his career year.
Mattias Samuelsson signed his deal the year before his “career” year too (if you can call it that.)
Rasmus Dahlin had a year left on his contract when he signed his extension. It was after his best year, but the year after signing has been his 2nd best. He has yet to collect a penny from his big deal.
Owen Power signed his after just 87 NHL games and also had a year left on his deal. He has yet to collect a penny of his big deal either. He’s going to finish with roughly the same numbers as in his only other full season.
I don’t think the bolded is as obvious as you say.
2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:His asking price is what interests me. We have this obvious situation where contract year players here seem to have their best years and then drop off after. Peterka and UPL are interesting problems for Adams as Mitts would have been. He isn't likely to trade them all is he.
I personally think it has to be bridge, but then I wouldn't have opened the vault for Power yet either.
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1 hour ago, Thorny said:
I’m not convinced we have a single problem on the roster by the prism of this logic lol
What do you want to do, zoom out as far as Jupiter so we can divide goalies into “Hellebuyck (who no one wanted, anyways haha) or question mark” when in reality perfect need not be the enemy of good.
If you don’t think we can find a net minder who at least provides a reasonable amount of competition in camp to a guy with 20 nhl starts of mediocre play, we’ll just have to disagree. If you don’t think it’s worth paying for Levi to have to beat that player out, we just don’t have the same priorities.
This franchise has bent over backwards to anoint Levi a spot: this doesn’t need to be argued - they granted him a spot this year when objectively he proved not yet ready. I do agree with you it’s very unlikely they bring in a player who provides an obstacle to him seizing G2. But your overall stance has moved much more in line with KA’s than apart over the course of this year’s likely playoff miss
I think the fundamental disagreement here is in our rating of Levi.
Simply put, I think he’s a better bet to give us 3.06, .901 goaltending or better for 30 games next season than most of the goalies you’d consider to be in the 25-50 range of NHL goalies.
And that tempers how much I’m willing to invest in another goalie like the 20 or so I listed upthread.
Or you’re saying that every team needs 3 NHL goalies when likely playoff teams we’re chasing like Washington, Detroit, Tampa and Toronto clearly don’t. Wants 3? Of course we do.
As to the bold, absolutely my stance has moved on our goalie situation, because this year has given me reason to believe we have 2 good ones when last summer it was only blind faith in Levi that led me to believe we had any.
Like I said, the frame of reference has changed.
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Basically you started last season with 3 unproven goalies, none of them with a defined role, one of them with negligible pro experience, and a loose, unearned pecking order
Next season you’d be starting with a clear number one, who played very well in his single year in that role, and an unproven number 2 who was dominant in the AHL and put up a winning record along with a respectable .901 and 3.06 over 27 NHL starts.
Would I like to add a 200-game vet on a 1-year deal and similar numbers to Levi? Absolutely because I too want to cover my bases. UPL could go all Tage Thompson on us. But I don’t think it’s the same situation at all as it was last summer in terms of risk management.
The context has significantly changed.
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24 minutes ago, Weave said:
Running the goalie situation back is inherently risky. Given the state of this franchise, I think it is resources well spent to de-risk it.
Not many NHL goalie situations that aren’t inherently risky.
23 minutes ago, Thorny said:20 nhl starts doesn’t make a solution. It represents only a potential one. The problem exists until it’s solved, not until it hypothetically could be
See, the latter sentence gets to the nut of it.
And it gets back to my initial question: what exactly is the “problem” you’re trying to solve? It sounds like something that can only be addressed with a Hellebuyck or a Shesterkin. Because to me, the rest of them all look like hypothetical or potential solutions.
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Boy is finally on a bender.
9 goals, 8 assists, 17 points, +12 in his last 12 games.
Team is 7-5 over that stretch.
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53 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:
We're seeing the GM ShEEEvyn run-it-back youth train lineup the remainder of the season. If the FO loves Zemgus, then he's back, and it looks like this:
Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Benson - Cozens - Quinn
Skinner - UFA 3C (Savoie) - Greenway
Girgensons - Krebs - UFA 4W (Kulich)
(Rousek)Power - Dahlin
Byram - Jokiharju
Samuelsson - Clifton
(Johnson)Luukkonen
LeviI was thinking this while watching last night and running the tape back to Adams trade deadline presser.
Plug Greenway into Rousek’s slot with Krebs and Skinner, add 3 fast, tenacious forecheckers, one of which is a defensively strong 3/4C and we’re looking at next year’s roster.
Its going to make the place really hard to read this summer but it’s going to happen.
Come November, most of Sabrespace will either be eating crow, or praying it’s not too late for our new coach to get us back in the race.
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4 minutes ago, Weave said:
This part wasnt tactically played well.
“How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?”
We had an unproven guy that was publicly given the keys to the team, and one of the challenges became, noone will sign on with him here.
The GM flat out played the goalie situation poorly.
Maybe, but the conversation I’m trying to have is about this summer, not last summer.
Is starting the season with Luukkonen (by this season’s numbers a good starter) and Levi (by this season’s numbers an average backup) a problem in need of an active solution?
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21 minutes ago, Weave said:
It’s a problem of Buffalo’s creation. I think getting goalie depth right is a basic GM responsibility. He’s on his third swing at it now. VSTOL performance is required now. The long runway is long gone.
Why should it be considered a problem?
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18 hours ago, Thorny said:
Judging from this Granato quote they have already decided Levi is good to go next season after not being so, this
Cross our fingers second time’s the charm!
18 hours ago, Weave said:Frustratingly high risk for a fanbase that has sat on the sidlines in April-May for 13 seasons.
Regarding the goalie situation AND the implied coaching situation.
There needs to be some acknowledgement that the context to this debate has shifted since last summer.
I loosely defined "backup" as goalies who have played 15-35 games this year
- Devon Levi ranks 18th in SV%, and 20th in GAA
I defined "starter" as goalies who have played more than 35 games.
- UPL ranks 12th and 8th
Overall, Luukkonen is 21st and 13th and Levi 47th and 49th out of 68 goalies.
Of course the question remains 'Yeah, but they're so young. Where's the track record?"
One response might be "Tell me who has a dependable track record?
Merzlikins, Korpisalo, Raanta, Vanecek, Husso, Allen, Gibson, Kahkonen, Vejmalka, Kuemper, Forsberg, Blackwood, Gustafsson, Mrazek, Jarry, Lankinen, Grubauer, Samsonov, Fleury...did any of these guys significantly outplay Levi this year?
Or this:
- .899 3.10
- .900 2.86
One is Devon Levi, the other Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ideally, I want a proven NHL backup who Levi will clearly have to beat out to be in the NHL.
How much would we have to give up to acquire a goalie we "know" is going to be better than Levi?
How much are we willing to spend on a "just in case"?
How many proven NHL backups will be interested in coming here knowing what the Sabres feel about Levi?
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The next captain of the Sabres will be/should be
in The Aud Club
Posted
Guess I gotta rewatch, but my memory was Dahlin being heavily engaged with someone in the scrum while the linesman was draped all over him and TJ Oshie was jumping on his back. Then he and Oshie got engaged directly with more official interference.
He was definitely in the thick of things.