nfreeman

Here's someone who definitely fails the "wants to be here" test. But he is a goalie who was 20-14-2 last year on a lousy Kings team, so...

FWIW, DG was on WGR this AM and Jeremy White asked him several questions about the Mitts/VO line. DG, as might be expected, spoke supportively and positively about Mitts and VO. He pointed out that Mitts has been very productive on the PP, while admitting that the Mitts/VO line needs to improve at 5-on-5. DG also said that the other 3 lines are playing very well right now, noting that a couple of weeks ago only 1 line was playing well, and that Jost has fit in very well with Zemgus and KO. He said that he didn't want to change those 3 lines, and the solution would come from coaching plus improvement from Mitts, VO and Aspie, plus rotating Krebs and Vinnie into that line. He expressed confidence that they would get there. DG is certainly more confident about that than I am. We'll see.

The Harrington tweet is interesting, but as it's just his guess, I don't think it means anything. I don't think Mitts has much trade value. AZ isn't trading Chychrun for a package where Mitts is the best or 2nd-best piece. Regarding VO being placed with Cozens and JJP -- I'm pretty sure they tried that about 5 games ago for 2-3 games and it didn't work.

I've been thinking about this in the context of how bad the Mitts/VO line is at the possession game and I've come to the conclusion that a huge part of it is indeed mental/hockey IQ. Mitts has good size, decent skating and excellent hands, but I don't think his hockey IQ is particularly strong. In his first couple of seasons the characteristic about him that most stood out to me was that he consistently overestimated how much time and space he had to work with when trying to beat a defender. As a result, the defender took it away from him pretty much every time. Mitts doesn't make that mistake nearly as much, but as you point out he makes tons of other mistakes that indicate a low hockey IQ. I also don't see the innate sense of where the puck is going that guys like Quinn and Skinner seem to have. The result is that his line is terrible on the forecheck/possession game. I don't think VO is quite as bad as Mitts is at this, but I'm starting to think he isn't great at it either.

One thing I worry about regarding Mitts is that I'm pretty confident that one of the franchise's objectives for this season is to figure out whether Mitts is a long-term building block -- so I think it's pretty likely that they are going to continue to feed him all-situations ice time, regardless of how much he's pooping the bed. Losses like the one last night are the inevitable collateral damage.

I think Comrie's bad outings generally coincided with the injuries to the Sabres' D group. That, combined with lack of scoring from anyone other than TT, created a very difficult situation for him and the team. We'll see how it goes when he returns.

Fair points. On the 1st goal, I suppose DG could've just not had Mitts' line on for any D-zone faceoffs, but that probably isn't realistic. On the 4th goal, I think I saw on twitter that Mitts' line hadn't been out for 6 minutes and had already been terrible for 55 minutes of the game. I think DG should've stapled them to the bench at that point.

I'm no expert, but I think xGF% (expected goals for %) is generally regarded as a better metric than CF%, which is just a raw measure of shots and shot attempts. Among other factors, xGF% factors in quality of scoring chances. The Sabres are currently 17th in xGF%, after being 4th-worst in the NHL last season. I agree that the goaltending and PK are major issues right now. I don't think riding Anderson hard is a realistic solution though. I want to see how Comrie does when he returns. He was a bit inconsistent but overall I liked what I saw from him. For that matter, I want to see how UPL bounces back from a lousy outing last night. I'm not sure what the answer is on the PK.

I had a bit of conversation about this last night in the GDT for the TB debacle and thought it merited its own thread. My eye test has been telling me, loudly and clearly, that the Mitts/VO line, regardless of who the 3rd member is, has been consistently getting caved in. In last night's debacle, that line was on for both of TB's 5-on-5 goals. In both cases, DG put them out for d-zone faceoffs vs. Stamkos' line (and before both faceoffs, I said to myself "DG -- WTF are you doing here?"), and both times, TB won the puck and scored pretty much effortlessly. Here's the Athletic on that line's performance last night: https://theathletic.com/3947612/2022/11/29/sabres-loss-lightning-tage-thompson/ Mitts, VO and Aspie got the least ice time on the team last night -- Mitts had just over 9 minutes and the other 2 had less than 9 minutes. So I think it's pretty clear that DG recognizes that this line is a train wreck. Mitts and VO both have offensive skills, but when their line is on, it is ridiculously easy for the opponent to clear the D-zone, and the puck usually stays in the Sabres' D-zone for most of the shift. IMHO the inescapable conclusion of the eye test plus fancystats results like last night's is that Mitts and VO are both lousy forecheck/possession players. I think each of them can play on a line with 2 linemates who are good possession players -- or at least I'd like to see DG try this approach for a few games -- but they cannot play together. It is clearly not working and it is hurting the team. Accordingly, I'd like DG to split up Mitts and VO and try the following 3rd/4th lines, with the idea of giving each of Mitts and VO 2 good possession linemates: Asplund-Jost-VO Zemgus-Mitts-KO FWIW, I was discussing this theory with another Sabres fan last night, and he mentioned that Chad D. has also been advocating for Mitts to play with Zemgus and KO. I'll note that @Brawndo, who knows quite a bit more than I do, mentioned in the GDT, in response to my suggested lines, that Jost is not a play driver. I may be misinterpreting, but I think the fancy stats indicate that he is leading the Sabres in expected goals %: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL ...while Mitts and VO are DFL in that stat. Discuss.

Respectfully, I don’t think it’s in the top 20.

This IMHO is where the game was lost. As someone pointed out upthread, the Mitts-VO line was on for both 5 v 5 goals against, including the killer with five minutes left that changed the game from a 5-3 happy victory to a vulnerable 5-4 nail-biter. DG has to know that Mitts and VO get caved in consistently and cannot play together. It’s obvious to everyone here. He needs to swap Mitts and Jost, so that both Mitts and VO are playing with two guys whi can drive play. You sound insane and hostile. Chill out or keep quiet.

OK, but then you’re not getting him — which is fine if you don’t want Chychrun enough to part with any real assets — but if you do, you know very well that “trade our lower tier assets for someone else’s really good player” isn’t reality.

If you're talking about 6/7 defensemen, OK, but those aren't difference-makers. What do you think would've happened on the 8-game losing streak if they'd signed a Pysyk equivalent? Maybe 1-7 instead of 0-8? Regarding Comrie -- he is one of the limited pool of guys I referred to. You'll recall that he was their 2nd choice, after Matt Murray, who refused to come here. As for trades, the "guys who want to be here" applies there too. KA isn't going to trade for someone who doesn't want to be here.

Indeed. I think TP has been trying to re-create the McD/BB magic with the Sabres with his last couple of GM hires in Botteril and KA. JB did some good things but at the end of the day was simply not good enough at evaluating NHL talent on the ice or behind the bench, plus he made multiple boneheaded moves that embarrassed the franchise, albeit not in the same way that guys like Tim Murray, Rex Ryan and Russ Brandon did. The jury is still very much out on KA. There are plenty of promising signs, but at the same time he is accountable for the results. The team needs to show real improvement on the ice and in the standings -- not just another modest garbage-time late-season winning streak. If Comrie washes out and/or the team doesn't come close to 88ish points this year and/or Dahlin doesn't want to sign an extension next summer, it will be more than fair to criticize KA.

This is obnoxious.

You keep saying this, like there was a bountiful supply of good veteran NHL defensemen who wanted to come to Buffalo last summer but KA was too stubborn or dumb or smitten with Bryson and Fitzie to make a move. The Sabres are firmly in the top 3 of almost every NHL player's "NFW do I want to go there" list. KA, who strongly, and IMHO correctly, believes in bringing in and keeping only players who want to be here, has a very limited pool of players to choose from. This is going to remain the case until the Sabres become a solid playoff team and the arena is full and exciting most nights. We can pretend otherwise all we like, but the cold reality is that most of the players in the league do not want to come here, so this team is going to live or die based on what's currently in the system, plus a few strategic and opportunistic acquisitions from outside.

Very good points about Östlund and VO. I think though that AZ would probably rather have a 2023 pick that they expect to be in the 8-14 range than Östlund, and would probably rather have a young NHL regular under team control for a while than VO. But you're right that those assets might not materialize in offers from other teams, and the package from the Sabres you describe might be the best offer. I guess the question at that point is whether they'd rather just keep Chychrun.

Well, if I'm AZ, I say no thanks on top-15 protected from the Sabres, as that would almost certainly mean the protection applies and the pick slips a year. They're going to want a #1 in 2023, or at least a likely #1, coming back. But I agree that the rest of your proposal is pretty compelling, and I wonder whether anyone else would beat, say, a top-7 protected 2023 #1, Östlund/Rosen, and VO. I'll also note that while I have generally objected to trading VO as an alleged remedy to the Sabres' alleged surplus of scoring forwards, I am fine with trading him in a situation like this, where the Sabres are getting a putative really good player coming back.

I wonder how the Sabres’ analytics guys feel about Chychrun. There is NFW the Sabres would, or should, trade an unprotected 2023 first-rounder. But if the pick were top-5 protected, it should be on the table, along with most of their prospects other than Savoie, if they really like Chychrun.

I sure hope Von Miller isn’t out for a year.

I see hustle and signs of a good hockey IQ, but I also see signs of not being able to understand, at the NHL level, when a play is there to be made as opposed to when the defender is almost certain to prevent the play and turn it into a turnover going the other way. I also have concerns about his hands not being skilled enough to make the plays that his brain tells him to try, or skilled enough to develop into a guy who can shoot and score when the situation indicates. Generally I agree though with keeping him in Buffalo and seeing whether he can bring his game up to NHL speed and execution. He's already done so at the AHL level. I don't think they'd get much for Krebs in trade at this point. Totally agree on VO. He's flawed but he brings a lot to the table, including the most precious commodity in the game. He could easily score 35 this year and they have him under contract for next year at a good number. The only reason to trade him this year or next summer is a very compelling package coming back -- not a low 1st-rounder from a playoff team.

Holy mackerel that is awesome. What a great surprise reveal at the end!

Mule is absolutely a difference-maker. His D zone play is really good, but I think there’s a psychological component too. I was reminded tonight of an interview I heard a couple of years ago with I think Seth Appert, in which Appert raved about Mule — both his game and his leadership. He said Mule was captain material. I think he calms everybody down and he inspires them. I predicted before the season that Cozens would beat Mitts out for the #2 C slot, and I thought Cozens’ line was much better tonight, so it looked like Cozens was firmly taking the upper hand in the competition — but then I checked the box score and Mitts and VO both had more ice time than Cozens and JJP. (Interestingly, Quinn had more than any of them and was 3rd among forwards in ice time.) I don’t think Mitts and VO can be on the same line. They are both way too lacking in O-zone possession game.

So he's a C, 5'11", 187 lbs. He's 24 and turns 25 in March. He's from what looks like a suburb of Edmonton, was drafted #10 overall in 2016, then played his one season of college hockey (at U-ND, with 35 pts in 33 games), then played 4 full seasons with Colorado (including 40 playoff games, in which he had 10 pts; his playoff ice time was up and down in Colorado but in his last season there he played just under 16 min per game in 10 playoff games), then was traded to Minny at the deadline in his 5th season in Colorado. That trade to Minny was last season. He played in all 6 of their playoff games last year, had zero points in 11:36 per game of ice time, and they seem to have not liked what they saw in 21 RS games and 6 playoff games last year plus 12 RS games this year. I hope this doesn't mean Zemgus is out long term.

Jost in in the last year of his contract, which is $2.25MM cash, $2MM cap hit. He's a UFA after this season. I'd guess they think he's a better depth forward than Bjork and thus an easy if inconsequential upgrade.