[GDT: Sabres @ Kings - Wed Jan 24, 2024, 10:30 pm ET MSG, ESPN+ Bally Sports West 📺 WGR 📻]

1 minute ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Buffalo has to score first tonight. 
 

The Sabres have been scored on first 27 of 47 games, and in those games are 4-20-3. They have a first period goal differential of -25. When trailing after the first they are 2-17-2. All are 2nd worst in the NHL only above the Sharks. 

But conversely, they're 16-3-1 when they score 1st.  Which has to be pretty high on the list.

And, basically, we can all turn the TV off pretty early in the game if all that we care about is whether they win or lose.  What, somebody scored?  Guess we can chalk that one up.  😉

[GDT: Sabres @ Kings - Wed Jan 24, 2024, 10:30 pm ET MSG, ESPN+ Bally Sports West 📺 WGR 📻]

5 minutes ago, inkman said:

Correlation does not equal causation 

Hoping it continues, none the less.  😉

[GDT: Sabres @ Kings - Wed Jan 24, 2024, 10:30 pm ET MSG, ESPN+ Bally Sports West 📺 WGR 📻]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Benson is out tonight, Robinson in

Samuelsson out, Bryson in 

Levi in net

Le sigh.

[Blow the Whole Team up in the Off-Season - It's the Only Reasonable Thing to do]

At least there are only 2 more games to the AS break.  Survive these next 2.

Seriously consider a shakeup in the coaching staff.  (Wanted the PP coach gone last year.  That move needs to happen yesterday.)  Definitely need better assistants.  Maybe Granato needs to go too.  

But focus on playing the right way after the AS break and make sure the players realize that they're at minimum playing for their beloved Granato's job and quite possibly their own jobs as well.  See how they can play with the sense of urgency of things ARE going to change if they don't change.

Let the guys that should've been the leaders this season officially become the leaders next season.  (Presumes they don't totally screw the pooch down the stretch.  Expect they can avoid doing that.)  Really like Girgensons and will be sad to see him go, but he and Okposo need to be gone at the end of the year at the latest.  There are a lot of guys on this team that have been leaders at lower levels and they now need the opportunity to step up.  The younger guys have deferred to Okposo for too long.  They need to step up.

They've already suffered through the kids growing pains these past 3 years.  There's still some more growing pains for those that aren't (or just barely are) legally allowed to drink after home games; but expect the worst of them can be past provided they fix the coaching issues.  Don't see a reason to blow it up once again unless we want to add ANOTHER 3-4 years to this drought.  17 years was the magic # for the Pegulas other major franchise, realize that'll be here before we realize but really don't want to see them do another reset.  Kulich likely makes the team next year.  At most that is how many rookies should be added to next year's roster.  Still would like a vet top 4D brought in.  If that costs some of the assets that Adams has accumulated, so be it.  

[Blow the Whole Team up in the Off-Season - It's the Only Reasonable Thing to do]

9 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Not only was it reasonable, but a rookie goalie was going to lead them there on the way to a Calder Trophy if not the Vezina.

I have the receipts. All 103 of them.

Whatevs.

 

[Team Defense]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Did not mean to imply it was Dahlin's fault. It is the structure and how teams attack it. The lack of net front and the reliance on the points means teams play wider and higher on us. They also attack us and win puck battles because they know they can. 

Fully agree with that.

[Casey Mittelstadt's next contract]

8 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Comparing a 25 year old Mitts to a 22 year old Cozens is kind of bonkers. People couldn’t wait to run Mitts out of town three years ago.  

And what goes around comes around.  Blink-182 was SOOOOOOO close.  Nobody loves you when you're twenty-two, they all shout out go #### you.  What's their age again, what's their age again?

[GDT: Sabres @ Anaheim - Tue Jan 23, 2024, 10:00 pm ET ESPN+ HULU 📺 WGR 📻]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

IF UPL is going to get all 3 games on this California trip, agree with starting him tonight.  (And join @Brawndo's calls for having Levi in the AHL.)  But if the plan is to give Levi one of these next 2 games, why not give your backup goalie the horrible team that is currently imploding and your starter the good team that's going through a rough patch?

The idea is to try to win as many games as you can from this point forward, and if you're playing your #1 against the bad team and your #2 against the good team it seems you're going to be looking at a lower expected points than if you do it the other way.

Maybe somebody else can explain the logic behind it?  (And again, if they think there's a realistic chance that they start UPL all 3 games, then by all means, start him tonight.  But IF that's the plan, then why have Levi travel all week and not get any games once again?  (Realizing Ra-cha-cha doesn't play until Friday, but the Sabres won't be back for either Amerk game this weekend.)

[Team Defense]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

One of the reasons for this is our over reliance on Dahlin as the QB. Teams that have scouted us at all know this and attack the point and/or anticipate the pass. They know they do not have to cover net front as much as with some teams so they can play higher in the zone. 

Giveaways are definitely a problem and most of all we do not battle for pucks. We are a possession team that folds when we do not have possession. We are not a team that takes away time and space. That's the main difference. Taking away time and space is how you win in the NHL. This is what Tochet did with Vancouver. Turned them from a possession team into a team that takes away time and space. Puck battles. All the division leaders are teams that focus on taking away time and space. 

But the Sabres know better of course. 

Don't disagree that teams play the Sabres PP very aggressively, because they do.  And absolutely agree that the Sabres run an absolutely awfully structured PP w/ too much of the movement coming from near the blueline.

But, personally don't attribute those SHG against as being due to Dahlin being the PP QB.  At least 2 of the SH goals against (and probably quite a few more, but 2 are firmly planted in memory (at least for now)) were from somebody else other than Dahlin losing the puck at the BL.  Tuch turned the last one over and there was a turnover at the left boards w/ Dahlin not involved that resulted in the other one that is springing to mind.  (The other 6 seem to be fading in memory like so much else of this season.)

So, if the comment was railing on the Sabres PP structure, please continue on.  If it was railing on Dahlin losing the puck at the BL too often, don't believe that is actually the case.  Sorry for not twigging to your intent immediately.

[Tage Thompson- What the h*** happened?!?!]

19 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Tage went on a 5 week heater from Oct 31 - Dec 7 last season.  18 goals and 36 points in 18 games.  Outside of that stretch he had 29 goals and 60 points in 60 games.  He is probably a 30-35 goal and 60-70 point guy, which is what he produced in his breakout season.  I think I have seen enough good things from Tage this season to think he is going to give us several years of that at least.

Also, a quick internet search of the top 10 scorers in the NHL over the last 30 years or so shows that there are lots of guys who had pretty substantial drop-offs in production within a year or two of having career years.  I'm not saying Tage will never duplicate last year's performance (though I don't think he will), but I don't think the drop-off is as unusual as some are making it out to be.

Strictly as an FYI, that hot stretch for Thompson was right in the middle of the 6-7 week stretch that the PP was hitting at 34%.  Might be a SIMDGE of a correlation there.  😉

[Casey Mittelstadt's next contract]

37 minutes ago, Weave said:

My biggest concern is, how many more of this core are we going to lock up when they haven’t shown that they are at minimum a playoff level core?

Not that I am saying Mitts isnt a playoff caliber player, but man, none of these guys have demonstrated it.

That concern is very legit.  Expecting that Adams believes when the "core" are actually in their primes that it will be a truly formidible one.  But the risk that they aren't / won't be is there and if they aren't it'll cost a lot of the accumulated future capital to fix that.

Mildly surprised that Mittelstadt hasn't been extended yet.  Suppose it's hard to sell the public (and Adams bosses) on locking up another "key piece" when the team has taken such a step back from last year.

But the Cozens deal got worked on in February; expecting Adams will sit down with Casey's agent over the AS break to see what they can hammer out.

[McKenzie’s Mid Season Draft Rankings]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

When it comes to the draft, I'm starting to think it doesn't matter as much as we want until this team puts even more into development.

Benson...he's OK, but hes hitting a wall, but he is the on player recently that made the team right away and looked good, but he had minimal time/contact with the Sabres development system.

The rest of the high picks....some that look better than others, but no one that is turning this team around. 10 top 10 overall picks in the past 11 years, and how many have turned into legit NHL stars/gamechangers?  Eichel won a cup but hasn't lived up to the 'semi-generational' label.  Dahlin still has a chance to be elite, but hes not that this year.  Reinhart seems to be having a truly NHL impact level season, but years after he left the Sabres and almost a decade after being drafted. I mean, I guess the development isn't truly BAD on this team, but its certainly not good.

Am not fully convinced that the team doesn't develop talent well.  The bigger issue is the Sabres develop the talent at higher levels (in large part the NHL: Mittelstadt, Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Levi, Benson just ottomh all playing significant portions of either their D1 or D2 season in Buffalo not to mention guys that they've moved on from that also were in Buffalo for D1 or D2 year) than 90%+ of the NHL does so all the growing pains that come with learning to play as a professional are on full display at the highest level available.

It's an interesting experiment to which we are all held hostage as the organization tests the mettle of its young players at the highest level of competition available.  Mittelstadt when he reached his 24th birthday started to excel in that environment.  Would he have excelled in it earlier or later had he played 1 more year of NCAA hockey and then had a year of the AHL under his belt before coming to Buffalo?  The same question can be asked of the other young kids as well.

Adams seems to be banking on them being able to reach their peaks quicker by being here while also not driving away the love of hockey in his players that are in their primes/ past their primes (and the fanbase as well) while enduring the growing pains that come with young players developing.  In many ways the Sabres are the 21st Century's Eulers East, but since sending Eichel packing having not been sending any of the other youngsters out the door (yet) as they continue to accumulate young talent that he believes will eventually mature with a critical mass of that talent.

EVENTUALLY the plan almost has to succeed PROVIDED the losing endured while getting to there doesn't burn everybody out before that point is reached.  It COULD actually work, but will the cost in lost seasons and lost love of the game have been worth it if it does?  And, we need to keep in mind that the plan seeming to ALMOST having to succeed at some point isn't the same is it having to succeed at some point.  The anxiety of not knowing that this necessarily will succeed is high and if it doesn't succeed we'll have watched 4 or 5 more years (on top of the earlier 7 or 8) wasted as we get ready for another rebuild.

This month is going to be so interesting to watch, because if UPL has finally gotten out of his own head and really is a midtier (or dare we suggest better) starter maybe there is the critical mass of talent in front of him that the Sabres can be next year's juggernaut from seemingly out of nowhere with just a couple of tweaks here or there.  (And, flat out, Matt Ellis being reassigned is a tweak that needed to happen months ago.)  

[UPL's next contract]

14 minutes ago, Weave said:

I mean, I care enough to post that I don’t care what someone chooses to use as a nickname for UPL6K2U.  So, you got me, I guess.

I think it’s more than a little odd that someone would take exception to someone else’s choice for shorthand, assuming it’s not an offensive name.

Still believe that Ukka Pukka Dukka has a nice flow to it.  And it could even become 6K3A (or for our Canadian friends, 6K3eh).

[2024 NHL DRAFT Talk]

3 hours ago, Norcal said:

This is more like the unserious draft thread since we already have one and you included the tankathon link to fantasize about draft position. 

It's unfortunate that this season has come to this point, before February again. 

What's another high end prospect gonna do anyways? 

No, there WAS a thread about it on this site.  That disappeared sometime last week.

[Tage Thompson- What the h*** happened?!?!]

2 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a PED case in hockey to my knowledge, I’m sure it goes on but I don’t think that’s the case here, I don’t know him personally so he could but to me it seems more like he thinks he has to be the entire team by himself (aka Josh Allen) and I just think the league has found out how to deal with him. It really hurts that most of the team is struggling also, I’m sure that doesn’t help either but that’s just my observation.

Several of the NHL's fighter used steroids (John Kordic who died presumably from their usage being the most notable) or synthetic steroids (Andrew Peters who admitted to using Andro when it was not on the NHL's banned substance list).

Have never heard a credible rumor that players from other skills categories used them.  Though would be shocked if NONE of them used them for a bit at some point in their development / careers, but expect it is an extremely small percentage of players that have used them.  Would expect a very few might have used steroids or HGH after hitting adolesence to get a jump on others in their age cohort or that some have used HGH to speed injury recovery.

And no, don't expect for a moment that Thompson is/was using anything illegal.

[GDT: Sabres @ Anaheim - Tue Jan 23, 2024, 10:00 pm ET ESPN+ HULU 📺 WGR 📻]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

If people are going to perpetuate the MW thing, I’m going to keep pushing the “All Sabres games are after dark” premise.  What ***** genius came up with this idea?  Almost every Sabres game is after dark.  What are we doing here.  

Well, for the past 12+ seasons they have been.  Thought we saw the dawn peeking through last spring, but it turned out to just be a trick of the light below the horizon reflecting off all the ice in the air.  Similar to those pillars of light we sometimes see during a crisp February night.

[Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

No. They just have really crappy receivers.

Keep Kincaid. Let everyone else go. 

Diggs is done. He disappeared months ago. WTF was that play at the end where he didn't even try to catch the ball and just swung his arm at the defender?!

Get rid of Shakir?!?!?

NEVER!!!!!

[UPL's next contract]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

2.5 would be extremely generous imo. 

With that money you're in the Skinner, Ingram, Vladar comparables and while none of them are consistently good, neither is UPL. 

If you are offering him any more than around 2, you're putting an awful lot of faith in a guy with (as you say) "middling" numbers. 

I'd rather we made a deal for a real proven goalie while we bridged him and let time prove him worthy of more or yesterday's news. 

By bridge are you referring to a 1 year deal?  Asking, because a 2 year deal walks him to UFA status.

Would either give him 1 year or 3.  Wouldn't want to give him 2 years.

[Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread]

What a kick to the nuts Buffalo sports weekend.

The Bandits on Friday hosting the previously 1-3 Riptide were unable to go through their normal day before the game practice because the Sabres game that was supposed to be played Wednesday was played Thursday and Vinc proceeded to sleep walk through the 1st half giving up 9 goals on 15 shots.  They managed to get the game tied at 13 with about 2 minutes to go but immediately gave up another goal and couldn't get another equalizer losing 15-13.

Then on Saturday, the Sabres extra man offense gave up 2 goals in a 3-1 loss to a team that was 7 points ahead of them heading into the game and now sits 9 points ahead of them.

And today, the Bills kicker that had been extremely reliable until a week ago misses a kick with the wind at his back and the game on the line.

 

Brings back memories of the old Marv Levy fight song: go Bills and take the Sabres with you, go Bills and take the Bandits too.  

 

At least we still have our normal rallying cry of NEXT YEAR!!!

[Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread]

That stinks.  Very good football game.  Tough way for it to end.

Hope the Chefs kick the snot out of the Crows and the Lions kill the Whiners.

[UPL's next contract]

42 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

He's a free agent at the end of the year (restricted).

We have a Mitts next contract thread, but at least for the last few weeks UPL has probably been more important to this team than Mitts.

Does anyone want to lock him up long term? Short term deal (if he will take it) to 'bridge' until Levi is ready to take over?  What does UPL want or Demand?

Since the Calendar turned to 2024, he is 4w-2L, a .955 save percentage, 2 shutouts, and about a 1.18 gaa (small sample size but it is a few weeks)

It's an excellent question and one they have to get right.

UPL and Levi are the goalies for at least the next 2 years but it's doubtful they'll BOTH be here more than 1 or 2 years after that because they likely won't be able to afford both at that point and both will be wanting to be a #1.  Whether 1 or both deserve to be a #1 at that point is still to be determined.

Would expect they'll try to get him to sign a 3 year deal buying 1 of his UFA years.  But honestly have no idea how receptive he'd be to a 3 year deal.

[GDT: Lightning @ Sabres - Sat Jan 20, 2024, 12:30 pm ET MSG-B, BSSUN 📺 WGR 📻]

25 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I gotta say, Adams can’t really “end up right” about this, at least in so far as the central goal we’ve been talking about, which is making the playoffs. If we make it in year 5, or year 6, or year 7, it says nothing about the fact that teams, statistically, very rarely get to even 4 year playoff droughts (which makes sense mathematically given 50% make it).  Only a handful of teams generally at any given time are at that level. Making it 5 years in would be a significantly below average league-relative course to take re: average timeline. I’ve mentioned this before, any sort of playoff appearance beyond this season is certainly “about time” territory. For the franchise, more than obviously, but specifically this regime.

Now of course, this is just my view, and opinions aren’t (see: shouldn’t be) static. Adams CAN re-write the narrative. But at this point that would be way of willingly taking a exorbitantly long time to make the playoffs because the success we achieve once there was facilitated by it. Ie: 5 years to just make the playoffs is not “job well done” but if the payoff of that long road is deep playoff runs over the course of this team’s window, that’s a different story and of course that would reflect on the General Manager 

Which is why ALL this is frustrating.  Have been with you all along that the O'Reilly trade was terrible because of the amount of time that was thrown away in getting to an "even" trade. 

Hate that it looks like they once again are going to be on the outside looking in.

But don't see anything indicating that as we speculated far earlier in the season (perhaps even in the off-season) that even if they miss the playoffs Adams and Granato will be back but assistants won't be and Granato will finally be at a point where he's actually coaching for his job.  While for most or-gan-eye-zay-shuns this season would be the season that one or both of Granato and Adams have their jobs on the line; don't believe it's the case.

And IF Adams is right that this team is buliding into one that's going to be a legit competitor for the SC for 8 or 9 of the next 10 years starting next year (or God forbid, even the year following that), then 4 years of failure probably end up getting viewed as acceptable in hindsight.  But it's nowhere near certain that he'll be proven right and even if he is, we're still in the painful rehab after the operation you know will eventually improve your quality of life stage but right now we're in pain and there's no end in sight and maybe the surgeon sold us a bill of goods and those health improvements we were promised won't actually materialize.  It's just frustrating to be here right now.

[GDT: Lightning @ Sabres - Sat Jan 20, 2024, 12:30 pm ET MSG-B, BSSUN 📺 WGR 📻]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

When you hire an employee that lacks the experience typically associated with a job, and you let them work for several years they become experienced.  Ok, sure.    I guess that is the point in all this double talk.

You still hired an inexperienced person from day one.  You took that chance.  You suffer the consequences of baptism by fire that the employee will go through. You also suffer the damage to organization that could result internally and as viewed from the outside.  

I don’t think it’s a stretch to say The Pegula’s hired an inexperienced person to run hockey operations when they picked Adams.   We have discussed Adams resume enough, it was not nearly strong enough.  He was hired because he is smart, they knew him and liked him, and he would be loyal to their plan at that time.  

I think it is reasonable to say that Pegula has no clue who to hire to run his hockey operations.  Putting his wife in charge when his cronies from Pittsburgh and Penn State failed was a mistake.  LaFontaine, Murray, Boterill, Adams -  all were stretches.  They are all “experienced” now though.  Ok.  
 

Maybe Adams will turn out great since he being afforded so much time to get it right?  That is what we have to cling too.  

It's frustrating because it's very possible that that is what ownership expects.  The play of Sabres castoffs when they finally reached their prime years is likely something that they look at when assessing where the Kid Line and Power and Johnson and others are going to be next year and moving forward.  The emergence of UPL is likely also getting pointed out as how they can't give up on a young guy that seemingly underachieves such as Krebs.

But yet, Adams still hasn't extended Mittelstadt and he, along with Thompson, appears to be the epitome of the stay the course "don't go all wobbly on me now, George" player that Adams and Granato have been preaching.

Am getting flat out at a point that am fully expecting essentially status quo with the improvement that comes with age as frustrating as that is because there are a few spots that so glaringly could be improved by adding from outside and for what would seemingly not be a large cost in the grand scheme of things.  And yet, still hope (for no apparent reason) that Adams will go off the board and really get us that jolt that might not save this season but at least get things back on the rails.  Really not sure why that hope is still there, because it keeps seeming like what we have is what we get.  And maybe like you say, Adams will end up right about this.  But it's just so darn painful waiting for that to either pan out or the shoe to drop.

(How totally different would this season feel right now had that puck not gone in off Fasching's knee and the Sabres score that next goal to win that game in regulation rather than losing it in regulation?  It would be annoying, but not horrendously so and would likely be viewed simply as that slight step back that @Thorny kept expecting and that the Bills went through in Allen's rookie year with a lot of hope for what the next year would bring.)

[Eric Comrie called up, Devon Levi sent down]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Levi has proven that he is too inconsistent for the NHL as would be expected of a 22yo Goalie. 
His development pathway needs to be completely independent from the Sabres Success or more appropriately the lack there of. 
There are enough people around the league who are asking what the hell the Sabres are doing with Levi and this organization does not get the benefit of the doubt with their goaltending.
The Seattle Game should have the final straw and he should have been sent down. 
The Amerks have played five games including last nights since that game, He should have played quite a few of them. 

 

 

Am expecting that come the AS break, they'll be following the course that you've been advocating for.  We'll see soon enough.

[Team Defense]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I disagree with this premise.  I seriously doubt coach’s lack of working the refs is a substantive reason for our dearth of powerplays.  My guess is that the Colorados and Vegas’s of the league get the powerplays becuase they are harder on the puck, and that aggression leads to more penalties taken by their opponents for holding, tripping, interference, etc.

Yep.  When challenged, the Sabres often curl back to regroup rather than trying to win the 1v1 battle.  How many times have the Sabres taken a penalty because a F was about to drive past them for a solid scoring chance?  Either intentionally or accidentally, the Sabres take at least 1 if not 2 penalties like that each game.  They need to start forcing the opponent to do that also.  (Well, at least once they get the PP working.  Right now, NOT getting PPs might be the more effective strategy.)