Who would you 'pay early' or 'overpay' before they proved/earned it?

[DarthEbriate]

The positive spins on all this are:

1) There's at least another season of "prove-it" time for the young guys to determine who gets the top-line payments. Only Tage and Cozens and Muel need new deals next summer.

2) There is only so much ice time (particularly on the 1st line and 1st PP) to earn the big money contracts. So if Thompson stays healthy, he'll get the big contract, and a player who gets 2nd-line minutes (like Cozens or Mitts) will get the 2nd line extension. [Note: Eventually, the situation may pan out where a Cozens gets a Cirelli-like 8x$6.25 deal, but that likely won't be until after a 3x$4M deal first.]

3) If the Sabres can identify the core lock up a few top-6/top-4 players long term in the next 2 summers, then those contracts could look like bargains in years 4-8 when the escrow is finally paid off and the TV revenue bumps the cap up a bunch. Then, they'll have the cash to fill out the middle of the roster and also attract the veterans who will take slight discounts to be on a contender.

And for all of these... the players can see what's happening. The wave of talent is coming. The goalies are coming. The team started to compete night-in/night-out except for a few hiccups (@ Edmonton, where they rebounded and shut out Calgary the next night) the last couple months of last season, despite sub-average goaltending. The reasons to extend in Buffalo long-term are valid. This is an up-and-coming roster.

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The positive spins on all this are:

1) There's at least another season of "prove-it" time for the young guys to determine who gets the top-line payments. Only Tage and Cozens and Muel need new deals next summer.

2) There is only so much ice time (particularly on the 1st line and 1st PP) to earn the big money contracts. So if Thompson stays healthy, he'll get the big contract, and a player who gets 2nd-line minutes (like Cozens or Mitts) will get the 2nd line extension. [Note: Eventually, the situation may pan out where a Cozens gets a Cirelli-like 8x$6.25 deal, but that likely won't be until after a 3x$4M deal first.]

3) If the Sabres can identify the core lock up a few top-6/top-4 players long term in the next 2 summers, then those contracts could look like bargains in years 4-8 when the escrow is finally paid off and the TV revenue bumps the cap up a bunch. Then, they'll have the cash to fill out the middle of the roster and also attract the veterans who will take slight discounts to be on a contender.

And for all of these... the players can see what's happening. The wave of talent is coming. The goalies are coming. The team started to compete night-in/night-out except for a few hiccups (@ Edmonton, where they rebounded and shut out Calgary the next night) the last couple months of last season, despite sub-average goaltending. The reasons to extend in Buffalo long-term are valid. This is an up-and-coming roster.

Looking back at what Chicago and Tampa did some of their guys, I think I nailed down the right strategy to use.  With Tage, you are out of options, just need to pay him on a 5+ year deal.

But with the guys you still have RFA years on, like Cozens, sign him to a 5-6 year deal that covers the rest of his RFA years and buys just a couple UFA years.  It’s the best way to sign a good young player to a longish term contract at a reduced rate.  You could sign him to a really reduced rate bridge deal, but then you are going to have to pay him real UFA rates sooner.

For example, this is two avenues for how Cozens’ next 10 years of AAV could play out

Bridge deal:   
$0.86M-$3.5M-3.5-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M

Early Medium long extension:   
$0.86M-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$8.25M-$8.25M-$8.25M

Personally, I think that second structure is better.  

Edited July 22, 2022 by Curt

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

Looking back at what Chicago and Tampa did some of their guys, I think I nailed down the right strategy to use.  With Tage, you are out of options, just need to pay him on a 5+ year deal.

But with the guys you still have RFA years on, like Cozens, sign him to a 5-6 year deal that covers the rest of his RFA years and buys just a couple UFA years.  It’s the best way to sign a good young player to a longish term contract at a reduced rate.  You could sign him to a really reduced rate bridge deal, but then you are going to have to pay him real UFA rates sooner.

For example, this is two avenues for how Cozens’ next 10 years of AAV could play out

Bridge deal:   
$0.86M-$3.5M-3.5-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M-$6.5M

Early Medium long extension:   
$0.86M-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$4.75-$8.25M-$8.25M-$8.25M

Personally, I think that second structure is better.  

The second option is what Winnipeg did w/ also 7th overall pick Scheifele except we could pay less for a better defensive (ya, probably weaker offensively) player. His deal has been an asset for them and by the time he’s up for a new deal two seasons from now, they’ve already secured his prime. 

If they were still contending they could extend him after this year, but also have the freedom to move on if they go forward with a retool, not locked into a LT deal starting in his late 20s

Edited July 22, 2022 by Thorny

[Doohickie]

Food fer thought