IKnowPhysics
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Posts posted by IKnowPhysics
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3 minutes ago, Weave said:
Do you like fish sticks?
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5 hours ago, dudacek said:
Oh my god, this thread is hilarious.
Kim’s illness has left a vaccuum at the top of the business side for an extended period.
This guy is filling the gap.
Why does it need to be anything more?
But what about ***** space aliens?
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3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:
Terry’s age and Kim’s uncertain health would seem to increase the risk of the Bills’ being relocated by a new owner. Especially if the new lease doesn’t do enough to prohibit or discourage the same.
3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:Kim’s prognosis and plans for (capacities in) the future are relevant to the future of the Bills in Buffalo. “Gross,” maybe. But those are the facts, imo.
It's enough to say that the Bills' location in WNY and the public interest need to be protected in the event of the owners' death and that the public money agreements need to effectively account for that scenario. Full stop.
QuoteWhat kind of shape are Terry – and especially, Kim – really in and what is their prognosis for the long term?
These are not academic questions. Answering them is required due diligence if the interests of taxpayers and fans are to be respected.There is no ***** reason why anyone should be calling for public inquiry about details of Kim's health, let alone insinuating that failure to do so would disrespect taxpayers or fans.
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36 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
I continue to wish Kim Pegula well in her recovery.
This recent Investigative Post report on the MOU for the new stadium lease points to the valid reasons that members of the public - a public that is footing the $850M bill - may want to know more about Kim's prognosis.
https://www.investigativepost.org/2023/01/16/bills-new-stadium-lease-is-not-ironclad/
That article is gross.
You want an iron-clad way to keep the Bills in WNY if they use public funds for stadium construction? Fine. You want to compel an individual to release their private medical information because you want more ammunition to motivate the state/county to negotiate a more iron-clad way to keep the Bills in WNY? Gross.
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4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:
I don't get this "strategy". Why not send him down, let him actually play a game or two there and then call him up and send someone else down and repeat. What harm is there in letting them actually play a few games in the minors now and again?
Because Granato (and many, many other coaches for decades) believe there's value in letting rookies watch a game or two from the press box, which is why Peterka and Quinn sat for a minute. But with three goalies, we needed to play roster games on paper to remain compliant. This isn't punishment. It's a chance to learn and a chance to rest. They were never going to put on a Rochester uniform.
Also, "the harm" is that they're not practicing at the NHL level, they're not with the team for quick call ups, they aren't taking a rest from games, they aren't watching the NHL games, and they aren't making their NHL salaries (all ELCs are two way deals resulting in lower salaries for AHL games).
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Sabres are now 5-0 when wearing the black and red thirds, scoring exactly six goals in each game. The individual player stats in the five games so far are bonkers (goals, assists):
Fowards:
Asplund 0 2
Cozens 2 8
Girgs 0 2
Hino 0 1
Jost 0 3
Krebs 1 2
Mitts 2 4
Okposo 3 0
Olofsson 4 2
JJ 2 3
Quinn 4 1
Skinner 4 1
Thompson 4 2
Tuch 2 4
Defense:
Dahlin 2 6
Joker 0 1
Power 0 4
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11 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:
Wait... so defensemen can't be All-Stars anymore?
They'll reveal the other two divisions soon.
But if you want to ***** with the
AtlanticMetro division, be sure to vote in two more forwards that suck, thereby denying them defense.-
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19 hours ago, Freeezo said:
Can anyone look at the video on tsn hockey front page. "Did Buffalo almost trade tNt before he took off"
QuoteBetteridge's law (of headlines) is an adage that states "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." The sweeping generalization refers to the poor journalistic practice of writing sensational headlines in the form of a question in order to compensate for the author's lack of facts.
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But this is Granato's special hell. He's got three problems:
Goaltending, 3rd D Pair, and Bottom Six
If he can solve two of those problems, we're in the playoffs. And Anderson and 6K are looking ok lately... so what's the other one going to be?
I'd be shuffling Mittelstadt/Krebs/Okposo/Girgensens/Asplund/Olofsson/Jost any which I can to try to get something going.
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3 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:
Oh, I'd switch him and Quinn in a New York minute.
I wouldn't. JJ-Cozens-Quinn when backed by Dahlin are posting incredible numbers:
5.93 GF/60, 4.23GA/60
3.19xGF/60, 2.13xGA/60
And I wouldn't upset Skinner-Tuch-Thompson when they're backed by Power either:
5.22GF/60, 1.42GA/60
3.86xGF/60, 3.63xGA/60
In terms of offense, Granato's playing one of the best top lines in hockey and playing likely the best second line in hockey.
Individual on ice 5v5 GF/60, GA/60 with NHL ranks (all skaters):
Skinner 4.83 (6th), 2.48
Thompson 4.33 (16th), 2.48
Tuch 3.72 (49th), 1.92 (215th)
Power 3.95 (35th), 3.95
JJ 3.34 (105th), 3.21
Cozens 3.37 (99th), 3.51
Quinn 3.99 (33rd), 2.95
Dahlin 3.32 (108th), 2.43
(Top 160 would be something like 32 teams x five skaters (1st line). Top 320 would be 32 teams x 10 skaters (2nd line).)
Sabres have a league-leading 142 goals and Thompson (30), Tuch (18), Skinner (17), Cozens (12), Dahlin (10), JJ (7), Quinn (6) total for 100 of them (70%). 68 of those goals were even strength, which is 80% of our 85 even strength goals. 80% of our EV goals. Eight. Zero.
I couldn't touch those top two lines with a ten foot pole, even if the bottom six can't get their ***** straightened out.
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Looked for a long time at 5v5 combinations of Mitts and different dmen in terms of the CF/CA, HDCF/HDCA, xGF%.
Defensively, Mitts plays alright with Dahlin, Lybushkin, Bryson, Clague, Pilut, Power, and Dahlin. He improves the defensive results when Bryson and Pilut are on the ice compared to their other teammates. However, he should never play with Fitzgerald, Joker, or Samuelsson; they experience a increase in CA/60 and HDCA/60. It's especially awful when Mittelstadt and Fitzgerald are on the ice.
But offensively, Mitts plays fine with Dahlin (Dahlin notably doesn't see a decrease in CF/60 or HDCF/60 when Mitts is with him) and Pilut. Pilut and Mittelstadt seem to make each other significantly better at both ends. However, every other dman sees worse CF/60 and HDCF/60 when Mittelstadt is on the ice, likely due to their other teammates (Thompson, Cozens, et al) being better.
The problem is that this lack of offense in combination with terrible defensive teamwork with some dmen makes for a sub-50% xGF% when he's on the ice with anyone but Dahlin.
Both Mittestadt's zone starts and quality of competition is balanced, so it's not much of a factor (ie, he's not always being sent out against the league's best or always being started in the dzone).
The real question is how to move forward. When lined up with Jost and Olofsson, the CF% was fine, but they generated piss poor HDCF/60 and xGF%. Mittelstadt's basically never played with Okposo and it might be worth a try, but Z-Krebs-Okposo has been pretty good, especially at limiting opponent scoring, so I don't know if breaking that up is worth it... it might be.
Alternatively, JJ-Cozens-Quinn, while high scoring and fun to watch, hasn't been the best defensively when playing with Power and Clague (they've been pretty good with Dahlin and Samuelsson). Maybe playing with that lineup might yield better overall results?
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Math tangent.
If you consider production rate, Tage Thompson isn't just the best in points per dollar, he's 2nd best in points per minute (behind McDavid). Skinner is 9th, Tuch 16th, Cozens 28th, Dahlin 118th, Hinostroza 129th, Quinn 135th.
If you consider Points per Min per dollar of Cap Hit (analogous to the player's production rate per minute of ice time per cap dollar spent), Cozens is 6th in the league in P/Min/$. Thompson is 10th. Quinn is 32nd, QJJ is 52nd, Asplund is 54th, Krebs 138th.
We've got several good players in terms of absolute production, production rate, and production rate value, especially Thompson and the ELC boys. But we're also getting great value from Tuch and good value from Skinner.
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Not the end-all-be-all for building a franchise ground-up, but here's CapFriendly's cost-per-point tool for an idea of production per dollar.
No surprise: Tage making $1.4M this year puts him at 1st place value league-wide. Even if he were making his $7.142M this year, he'd still be at $129.9k/P, good for 173rd in the league. For reference, McDavid is costing $171k/P this season, which puts him 254th. Tage's performance versus contract cost over the next years is the kind of salary cap advantage that can win Cups.
Maybe surprising is who's a very close #2 in cost per point. Still on his ELC and putting up 35P in 36GP (on pace for 79P in 82GP) is Dylan Cozens.
Also good to know: JJ is 29th, Quinn is 31st. Power is 62nd. Asplund at 126, Krebs at 144. Tuch at 151. Mittelstadt at 170.
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Thompson's going to single handedly win Kevyn Adams the GM of the Year. Tage makes $1.4M this year and $7.1M AAV the next seven years. His market value right now is closer to $13M.
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Quote
How many Norris Trophies will Dahlin win?
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17 hours ago, Zamboni said:
Red Wings … 4
Buffalo Wings … 2
10 hours ago, Dreams Burn Down said:Red Wings 6 Sabres 3
9 hours ago, Toilet_Mop said:5-2 Red Wings
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14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Quinn's shootout goal over Nedeljkovic is worthy of an SVU investigation.
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Rage Thompson:
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Sabres played well against Tampa and they're angry they lost.
Red Wings:
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How bad is Casey Mittelstadt?
in The Aud Club
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Over the past ten games, the stats indicate that Mittelstadt, et al, is producing offense (CF/60, GF/60, etc) at a 2nd line-like rate, which is fantastic. But what's even better is that they're crushing the opponent in xGA/60. This has resulted in Mittelstadt, Jost, and Olofsson leading the forwards in xGF% around 60%, which is not just strikingly good for this team...
It's critical in order for Granato's line tactics to work. Player usage charts show that we don't line match skill-vs-skill or shutdown-vs-skill. We play some zone starts (ie, putting out Skinner-Thompson-Tuch in the offensive zone), but we're not line-matching. Granato rolls four lines. Mittelstadt-Jost-Olofsson a month ago was considered to be a dreadful result of all of the other lines working well.
Granato's good coaching and the players' hard work have improved a once-upon-a-time all-is-lost 4th line into a transformative line 2A. Additionally, quality hockey from the "bottom six" like this helps take pressure off the kids.