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IKnowPhysics

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Posts posted by IKnowPhysics

  2. Vegas pick...do the Sabres want them to win the lottery this year?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Just now, SDS said:

    Is this actually followed?

    The analysis is well founded.

    But GMs definitely don't use it ubiquitously and religiously.  1OA, even 2 and 3OA, are wayyy overvalued in the real draft economy, such that 9 and 16 probably wouldn't get much higher than 5OA (plus maybe a late 2nd at best).  Probably because marketing.  And that no GM wants to be known for unknowingly trading away the next unexpected phenom whomever.

    But it also makes for fun conjecture.

  4. Vegas pick...do the Sabres want them to win the lottery this year?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by IKnowPhysics

    You want the earlier pick, which means you don't want Vegas to win the lottery.  Several reasons:

    1. You want the prospect in the system one year earlier.  Better development options, including stacking Rochester if that's what's best.
    2. You don't want to dilute this year's draft capital.
      1. We have (pre-lottery) 9ish, 16ish, 28ish, and 41.  I get that 16 is actually 18, but I'm lazy.
      2. That's a lot of ammo if we decide to move up.  Loosely speaking, from Shuckers' 2011 draft value paper, picks 9 and 16 are worth 1st overall.  16 and 28 are worth 6th overall.  28 and 41 are worth 13th overall.  You can make all of those moves and still select two 1st round picks.  Not saying we'd get that or do that, but three 1sts is nothing to sneeze at trade-wise.
      3. Equally, it's also an enormous amount of potential return if we decide to move down.  BOS, CGY, CAR, COL, and FLA definitely do not have their own 1st round picks.  CHI, MIN, NYR, and VGK may not end up with their picks.  That's a lot of teams that may want to move back into the first round.
    3. Vegas could be a better team next year compared to the delicious meltdown they just incurred; few expected them to do that this year.  This year's pick is likely better value, and even if I'm wrong, they won't be so much worse next year as to make it worth waiting.

  5. About that trade…

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

    I agree with all of this but I think the highest FLA can pick is #27, and that's only if Colorado passes them for #1 overall in the NHL standings.  Since they are, in this scenario, a division winner not making the conference finals, they are in slot 27 (if CO passes them in the overall standings) or 28 (if Fla. finishes #1 overall).

    I certainly could be wrong.

    I thought it was: First round playoff losers that did not win the division title, followed by first round playoff losers that did win the division title.

  6. About that trade…

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    I’m going to play Jack apologist for a second.  Jack is coming back from a career threatening injury and a difficult surgery.  He had no camp, had to play his way back into shape and play with guys he was unfamiliar with.  The fact he has done as well as he has is pretty amazing.  LV won’t get what they paid for until next season.  

    That said there are reasons for LV to be worried about acquiring Jack, but his play this season isn’t the cause of their hopefully missing the playoffs. Injuries (they still have 7 players out with injuries) and mediocre goaltending are responsible.

     

    Based.  I'm not on the *****-on-Jack train because we don't have all the details of what happened in Buffalo.

    BUT I am licking my chops for LV to put that first rounder squarely at #15 overall (maybe 16 because Canucks), which would give us like #9, #15, and a with hopeful early FLA playoff exit, #24.  That, combined with our #41, gives us a lot of draft capital to move around to take specific players.  So for the moment, I'm vested in Jack being a waste of both ice time and cap space.

    • Like (+1) 1

  10. Heritage Classic Jerseys Revealed

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Welp, at least theirs suck more.

     

    I don't mind most of the specific details on ours, and I still love Hairy Buffalo, but the cream color jersey heralds an era of cotton jerseys that simply never existed during our frachise's history.  It poses.

     

    I'd rather have seen strict Adidas adaptations of both teams' OG 1970 jerseys, proper crests and all, maybe slap a QEW highway sign patch on the upper chest, and call it good.  They'd look better, sell better, and history better.

     

     

    • Like (+1) 2

  14. Jeff Skinner - The Poll

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

    I personally hate “on pace for” discussions because they almost never line up with exactly what happens by the time the season ends. That being said … he’s having a good season so far (key word). He needs to continue it without going cold in order to finish the season and consider it a “good season”.  IF he gets injured for a few games, or IF he goes cold for 10 games, it will most likely be viewed as another “bad season” for Skinner.

    This is precisely why "on pace" is used, so one can describe performance without it being convoluted by games absent.  We all know the shortcomings of extrapolating future performance from past performance, but in conversation, it's still easier to understand and compare goals-per-82-games than spouting GF/60.  And if he goes cold, his pace will change.

    But, alright, let's do the other thing.

    Among players with more than 200min of 5v5 (~15GP), Jeff's GF/60 is 1.46, which puts him at 14th best in the league.  Ralph Krueger's P% last season was 0.285, which is worse than the Sabres worst P% (2014) of 0.317.

  18. Score Effects and Sabres Coaching

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
    I'm not sure why this happening. Thoughts?

    My first thought would be to look at any differences in personnel usage in those situations.  Granato typically doesn't linematch, so if he shifted 5v5 personnel based on game situation it would be notable. Not just defense, but forwards too.  I'd also look for turn over and takeaway rates- are we giving up the puck or are we not taking away the puck compared to our average?

    • Like (+1) 1

  19. Score Effects and Sabres Coaching

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    Until we get capable goaltending, better defensive D and more depth upfront, none of the advanced stats mean anything. 

    ...

    Looking at that roster, is there really any question as to why this team has terrible advanced metrics?

    "Advanced stats are meaningless... there's no question why we have bad advanced stats."

    Funny GIF

     

     

    Let's reword that thought as "I think the roster's bad enough that roster improvement would make a bigger impact than analytics-driven game situation coaching decisions" and call it square.

    • Like (+1) 1

  21. Around the NHL 2021-22

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

    His GM job in Portland went away once the Bruins took over affiliation there. So is this a real job or just a place holder till the end of the season?

     

     

    Likely, although it's being hailed as a promotion to include more responsibilities at the NHL level.

     

    It's just more fallout from the Coyote's purchase and relocation of the Springfield Falcons in 2016, part of the ferris wheel of AHL/ECHL and NHL team affiliate regionalization.

    Springfield Falcons AHL -> Tuscon Roadrunners AHL (ARI)

    Portland Pirates AHL -> Springfield Thunderbirds AHL (STL)

    (Anchorage) Alaska Aces ECHL -> (Portland) Maine Mariners ECHL (now BOS)

     

    Lehigh Valley Phantoms are the Flyers' AHL affiliate and are GM'd by Flyers President/GM Chuck Fletcher, although the Phantoms are not owned by the Flyers or their parent company, Comcast Spectacor.  Reading Royals are the Flyers' ECHL affiliate and are GM'd by David Farrar.  Comast Spectacor also owns the Maine Mariners ECHL (BOS, formerly PHI).

    The Royal's owner, who bought them immediately before COVID, is the Berks County Convention Center Authority and they're reeling in losses from having two arenas closed for COVID.

    It would make sense for the Flyers' and Bruins' franchise values for Comcast to sell the Mariners to the Bruins' Jeremy Jacobs.  Comcast could then buy the Reading Royals, and potentially install Briere as GM of the Phantoms and/or Royals.  But it's hard to tell if Comcast would do it, because Comcast also has the arena management contract for the Maine arena, and they don't have that for the Reading arena.  Dolla dolla bill y'all.

    Or they could just promote Briere to a Flyers' AGM role, whichever.

     

  22. Alex Tuch, a key piece in the Eichel trade

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, Weave said:

    And this was always the rationale behind the arguments that he could be moved successfully.

    Sure.  But the outcome doesn't always favor the package over the player, and the Sabres have been both perpetrators and victims of that.

    I didn't think there was no solution to move forward, but there was an entire universe of bad ideas possible.  I'm glad KA held the line and didn't compromise the return on paper- because it initially appears to have worked.

    • Like (+1) 1

  23. Alex Tuch, a key piece in the Eichel trade

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Notes on some numbers.  If it wasn't obvious, Tuch is absolutely balling out right now.

    His production rates lead the Sabres and he's among top-of-the-league in several categories (among players with more than 100mins 5v5 played):

    Total Assists/60 - 4th most with 2.4

    First assists/60 - 5th most with 1.71

    Total points/60 - 7th most with 3.43

    For reference, peak Eichel was 1.6, 1.03, and 2.43, respectively (again 5v5, no PP).

    Tuch's 3.43 5v5 P/60 is the most we've seen from a Sabres since sometime before 2007 (database limit).  He's killing it at even strength play in a franchise-historical way.

    If anyone was worried that we were trading away the now for the future by trading away Eichel, Tuch should be helping you sleep a little better.  And then add Krebs whose 1.25G/60 over his 11 games, if sustained, would be 32nd most in the league and constitute first line scoring production.  And then add the 1st and a 2nd, which would be 21st and 53rd overall based on today's standings.

    Now, I'm not saying Tuch or Krebs or the 1st or 2nd are as complete players as Eichel.  But the aggregate production of the package return may be able to accomplish more than the individual.

    • Like (+1) 4
    • Thanks (+1) 5

  24. Incentivized tanking?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted · Edited by IKnowPhysics

    18 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

    That's amazing. It feels like we puke the puck up constantly. Maybe ours turn into goals more?

    I was surprised too.

    It's hard to connect events like that with only the numbers.  It's easy to see whether we do or do not give up the puck and separately whether we do or do not give up a lot of goals.  But there's no easy access to counts or rates of IF we giveaway the puck THEN we give up a goal.

    Mayyyyybe one could generalize that lots of giveaways miiiight correlate to lots of CA/60 or HDCA/60, but that wouldn't be a perfect method.  And it wouldn't be true for the Sabres, because giveaways are low and CA/60 and HDCA/60 are medium-bad.

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