IKnowPhysics
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Posts posted by IKnowPhysics
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KA rolling onto the floor of the Bell Centre with four firsts in hand:
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3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
Didn’t Murray have a Top Ten Goals saved above expected in the League after He got called back up from the AHL?
Not that I can infer from the stats over his 20 games (five of which were going 0-5-0 before being sent down). He sits about 40th in GSAA/60. If there's other data, I'm open to it.
2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:I would retain more if I was Buffalo to make this work
How many first round draft picks should we acquire?
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6
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1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:
Murray > Mrazek
Murray at least showed a bit of progress late
Mrazek was a train wreck the entire season
Murray is younger and was at one point good
Murray is average. Mrazek is hot trash.
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13 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:
To answer the question you can trade for him and re-sign him without other teams bidding for him. I highly doubt a Stanley Cup winning goalie will want to come to a team who hasn't made the playoffs in 12 years though.
Not with that attitude he won't. We're going to win it all this year.
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2 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
But why would we trade for a player who's an UFA in 6 days?
To sign him before he turns UFA.
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Honestly, we could trade for Kuemper's rights and do a pretty rich deal (he's currently at $4.5MAAV) and I wouldn't be mad about it.
He's still a top five to 12-ish goalie in this league.
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4 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:
What happens now with Kuemper?
Kuemper's a UFA. Francouz is under contract for two more years, then UFA. Georgiev is an RFA.
Francouz and Kuemper are 5th and 6th in 5v5 GSAA/60 this season. 11th and 7th in HDGSAA/60. Both worthwhile to examine.
Francouz performed similarly to Kuemper, but makes only $2M. Kuemper made $4.5M last season. They might trade Kemper's signing rights for a late round pick. Clearing cap space, etc.
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I knew our draft capital gave us a lot of options, but I did not think we'd be adding more 1st round draft capital.
But that value is crazy.
Also Pierre Dorion is drunk. Try to make another trade with him.
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***** Antonio Brown.
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23 minutes ago, Weave said:
I can’t quite put my finger on what they lack. But whatever that is, they should get more of it.
#genius
Wins.
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Haha, if the local media is respecting her medical privacy, it's not just a failure of journalistic integrity, it's a conspiracy.
What a ***** take.
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25 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:
How's Chicago apt to get to the cap floor if they part ways with both Kane and Toews this summer? They're just above it, as it is.
Was it Tim Murray that effectively said it was really easy to spend lots of money on bad players and that getting to the cap floor was the easy part? I believed him.
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There's a potential scenario for a blockbuster draft trade. I could definitely see CHI/BUF/NHL colluding to send #9 or #16 (and other things) to CHI for Kane (and maybe other things). We'd still have two 1sts, including #9 or #16. Quinn, Cozens, Mitts et al don't go anywhere. CHI would get back into the 1st round (they don't have a 1st this year; they were to pick #6). The league would definitely wait until the pick to announce this. The draft's in MTL so it won't get booed on TV by Hawks fans. That kind of draft day spectacle would make Gary Bettman's maw moist.
Over the past three years, Kane's rankings:
Goals 32nd
Assists 5th
Points 7th
P/GP 11th
Kane hasn't had any major injuries. His game is kind to his longevity. One of seven active players with three Stanley Cups. His speed may wear off in the next couple of years, but his hands and veteran influence will last.
If BUF thinks they have any edge on the market for a player that produces like that, you have to believe they're going to pursue it. We have the draft capital.
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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:
It wasn’t that long ago that Donnie Granato was an assistant coach with the Blackhawks. Any concerns about fit should be easily addressed there.
Conversely questions Kane would have about our direction would also have to be influenced by that.
Kane stats while working with Granato:
2017-18 82GP 27G 49A 76P
2018-19 81GP 44G 66A* 110P*
*career highs
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Don't wait the year, pay the reduced "rental" asset price to secure the player and then re-sign them before having to compete in the open market on salary. If it doesn't work out, trade the rights before the deadline to recoup the rental fee.
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Is this broadcasted or streamed somewhere?
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On 5/14/2022 at 9:59 PM, dudacek said:
"Undisclosed Personal Issue" caused him to sit out the 2nd half of his junior year at Notre Dame after posting 16P in 21GP. Team reportedly excluded him in that summer's media communication. He transferred to Minnesota, being forced to sit out a year due to NCAA transfer rules. Didn't suit up for Minnesota in Fall 2018 (reason unknown) and immediately signed with Norfolk (which eliminated his NCAA eligibility), played 2018/19 there. Sabres rights to him expired August 2018, before he signed with Norfolk.
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30 minutes ago, tom webster said:
If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will impact your team in return for four late first round picks that likely won’t. At some point as you build your team you arrive to a point where your need to stock your prospect pool lessens temporarily.
Big oof. Naw.
Maths:
If impact is defined by a 200GP player, then even in the back half of the 1st round, you still have a ~44% chance of selecting an impact player. Over the course of four selections, each which that chance, here's what you get:
9.8% chance of not selecting an impact player
30.9% chance of selecting precisely one impact player
36.4% chance of selecting precisely two impact players
19.1% chance of selecting precisely three impact players
3.8% chance of selecting precisely four impact players
And four years of firsts isn't temporary. In a sport with an average career length of five years, that's an eternity.
But none of this matters because:
30 minutes ago, tom webster said:If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will
...be matched by the other team.
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Former Buffalo Sabres picks at 9OA and 16OA:
1982 (9OA) Paul Cyr
1982 (16OA) Dave Andreychuk
1995 (16OA) Martin Biron
2011 (16OA) Joel Armia
2013 (16OA) Nikita Zadorov
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10 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Nothing groundbreaking, but Adams interview on GR yesterday offered a few nuggets about Sam's department
- The Sabre use both the numbers provided by the nhl's new tracking system and their own proprietary numbers.
- The analytics department is constantly working with the other departments in order to get to the "why" behind the numbers. Without citing specifics, Adams used the example of a recent meeting between Sam and the coaches, where Granato immediately identified the reason behind something the analytics department had observed as a coaching decision and could show with video the "why" behind what the numbers had caught.
- Adams said teams would be foolish not to pay attention to the numbers and his marching orders to Sam are to "sort through the noise and tell me what's important."
It really comes across as a healthy collision between the numbers and the eye test.
Agreed.
I've recently befriended someone in analytics and had a number of good conversations with them on the topic. This sounds healthier than a lot of arrangements they described in the front offices of professional sports. They indicated that egos, personality differences, closed-mindedness, ultra-cut-throat internal competition, and general ***** management culture and/or player culture ruin many, many opportunities for positive data-driven growth within franchises.
KA and DG seem like they're committed to building culture first; hopefully a positive culture extends to and within the analytics department.
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The reasoning is sound, but the NHL player market is overboard irrational. Offer sheets have been one-off flukes, not ever driven by league-wide economic environment, and perceived as acts of violence and almost immediately perceived as overcompensating for the player.
There have been only 10 offer sheets signed since the year 2000 and only two in the past eight years; only two players of the 10 have not been matched (Penner 2007 1st and 3rd; Kotkaniemi 2021 1st and 3rd).
Is it possible that a few offer sheets are signed this year? Perhaps. But they'll be on a player-by-player basis. And without the Sabres 3rd, I don't see us making any meaningful moves that won't be matched (unless we do something realll dumb, which we won't).
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6 minutes ago, SDS said:
10 years old with no data at the top of the draft. 🤔
Logical me:
Agreed, 100%.
Over-caffeinated, out-of-the-playoffs me:
Law & Order: SDS Fun Police over here
Let me get my pseudoscience on, mannn.
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Also, by that analysis:
- 16+28+41 could get 4-5
- 9+16+28+41 still wouldn't get 1
And, just a fun thought, it'd be bonkers to fully convert to get 2-3OA and 13-18OA -or- 4-5OA and 9OA if KA and the gang thought they could get studs. The latter is pretty attractive: trade 16/28/41 for 4OA and take 9OA. And this is without packaging anyone in.
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34 minutes ago, Curt said:
By that analysis:
- 9+16 could get 2-3 (previous: 1)
- 16+28 could get 7-8 (previous: 6)
- 28+41 could get 18 (previous: 13)
Seems within the bounds of reason. You still don't see many trades moving down from 2-3 in practice though, but the value seems right.
Kevyn Adams:A Man For All Seasons
in The Aud Club
Posted
Live look at Kevyn Adams meeting with Ryan Johnson's agent: