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Ctaeth

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Posts posted by Ctaeth

  1. I would argue that keeping Cozens for another year and NOT shipping him out for something of value is also a huge risk that seems unlikely to work out.  If next year he continues his poor play, his value is going to drop like a rock with that contract.  Might as well take a shot with him while he still has value.  If he goes somewhere and returns to the player he was signed to be... I'm happy for him.  But it's getting more and more likely with every passing game that what you see is what you get.  

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  2. 2 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

    Rosen with two more goals for 20 in 41 games played. He’s looked good. Amerks win 7-4. 

    Nice to see him succeeding.  Wasn't sure what was going to happen to him down there without Kulich, was kind of a sink or swim situation without him.  But it appears it has forced him be more aggressive offensively rather than always deferring to his good buddy.  Shows some versatility in his game, can be an assist guy or can score the goals if need be.  A bunch of his points have been on the powerplay... could be a decent boost in that regard.  

    It's worth pointing out that the Metsa, who is on an AHL contract I believe, is at 30 points (3 goals, 27 assists) in 41 games with a +10.  He has leadership qualities and is the sort that you want to keep around (was a captain on quinnipiac the year they won the national title and is sporting an A with the amerks right now).  I said it last year and I think I'll say it again... they should be signing this guy.  I know he's a bit older, but he is good depth and he ought to get a shot at some point to show what he's got at the next level.  

  3. I feel bad for josh.  He has been stepping up in these critical moments and the team ends up coming up short anyways.  It's just disappointing.  

    However, I will say that while I am disappointed, I don't feel defeated.  We have the rest of JA's career to win a super bowl and I strongly believe that they will do it before he retires.  

    Also, where was Cook on that last Bills offensive drive?  Guy was electric the whole game and then suddenly they get away from him when it matters?  On the first play of the last drive.. they handed it off to Ty Johnson on first down with the season on the line.  I don't have anything against Ty Johnson, but Cook is far and away the more dynamic player and is half the reason the score is so close.  

  4. 30 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

    The Sabres are getting good offensive value out of their top 3 d-men. There are 3 teams in the league, Colorado, Columbus, and Vegas, whose top 3 scoring D have combined to produce more points this year than Dahlin, Byram, Power. I think you can keep all 3. I think we need to pair one of Byram or Power with Dahlin and find a stable veteran D to pair with the other (Cody Ceci was available this off-season and, occasional mind-cramp aside, would have been a good partner for Power or Byram). Maybe Samuelsson can still be that guy. He has perhaps been our most disappointing player. I also think that our coaching, including head coaching, is below average. Dean Evason, with a couple of different assistants, would have been a better choice, after an actual coaching search. 

    I agree that keeping all 3 would likely make us a better team in a vacuum (if you're planning to pair Byram/Dahlin long term).  But when you account for money, power play time, etc. I think it might become untenable.  To me, it really all depends on what Byram is looking for both contract wise and play wise.  We have OP running the second pp unit.  If Byram wants a large-ish contract and more power play time, you just simply can't keep both him and Power.  Either OP/Byram ought to go.  Paying Byram like he is running the PP and is the alpha in the first pair (when he isnt - Dahlin clearly is IMO) would be a luxury.  

    As for those other teams who have high scoring D... I have two responses. 

    1:  are they paying all 3 defensemen 7+ million aav?  because I wouldn't be surprised if Byram asks for 7 mill aav. you are then paying 3 defensemen a lot of money (and not all will be used on the pp).  if byram's ask is in a more reasonable range, i'm open to keeping him as dahlin's partner (if this is indeed what dahlin wants)

    2:  who is really driving play there?  with colorado and vegas, I'd argue it is their elite forwards (eichel, stone, mackinnon, rantanen, etc.) and their defense is benefitting pointwise from being paired with great forwards.  

  5. 12 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

    Why do they need to be traded?  I dont understand this stance.   Why can't you have 3 offensive / puck moving dmen? 


     

    Need is a strong word, but it's not how a successful team is (usually) built. 

    1.  Defensemen can play a lot more minutes.  If you have 2 really solid guys, you can have ~50 minutes of the game with at least one of them in.  

    2.  Defensemen don't score a ton of goals.  If you put too much money into offensive defensemen, you're handicapping your offense by not paying another good forward AND your defense (because usually offensive defensemen aren't as good at defense!).

    3.  Powerplay time.  2 power play units.  3 players vying for 2 spots QBing the pp.    

    Making matters more difficult in this specific case is that they are all LHD...

  6. 18 minutes ago, MagnumForce said:

    I like McLeod buf we overpaid for him. 

    that remains to be seen.  who knows how good savoie is going to be in the nhl?  Brett Murray leads the AHL in power play goals and I don't think he's going to be a great NHL player anytime soon.  Savoie could be great and make the sabres' management look stupid (they probably are regardless), or he could never live up to the draft position and then the trade was a steal.  

    I'm not going to criticize KA for trading away prospects for NHL players even if they turn out great.  We have some many prospects that we currently don't have the capacity on the Sabres' roster to bring all of these young guys up.  

    20 minutes ago, pastajoe said:

    Other former Sabres / Amerks who are AHL All-Stars: Zac Dalpe, Jeremy Davies, Vinnie Hinostroza, Devin Cooley, and Matt Savoie.

    What?!  Devin Cooley is an all-star?!  Stop

    giphy.gif

  7. 24 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

    To make the playoffs would require the Sabres to be one of the league’s best teams from here out. If they do that (and to be clear, they won’t), they would go into the playoffs playing the sort of hockey that allows for a deep playoff run.

    You are right, good teams don’t lose 13 in a row.  But bad teams don’t have 58 points in 42 games, either. If they make the playoffs (and they are not going to), it would only be because they stopped being bad and started being very good. 

    Even if they -by some miracle- get the points for making the playoffs this year, it would absolutely mean that they played well for part of a season.  They have done that before and falsely given hope...resulting in little to no changes in the offseason.  I don't believe it would significantly change how I view them in the macro... as an inconsistent team that doesn't -currently- have what it takes to succeed in the playoffs.  IMO, regardless of how the rest of the season plays out.. they should be changing how they are operating.  If they made a run, I would definitely be excited, but I've seen enough from this group to believe they don't have it -without some major changes-.  It's probably a moot point anyway.  

    • Agree 1
  8. 8th in the east is so far below expectation that all eastern teams are "in the hunt".  I'd argue:  who cares if they are in the hunt or not?  If they somehow manage to miraculously make a run, it would be to 8th place and would still not show the improvement we expected and hoped for.  For Pete's sake, they lost 13 in a row.  No decent team does that.  Changes should be incoming regardless of how the remainder of the season turns out     

  9. 21 minutes ago, inkman said:

    He does.  He leads the team in goals and  is tied for 6th in the league in goals.  He’s also a 6’5” 26 year old man playing against 20 year olds.  Hey, I’m for trying anything.  Not sure this is gonna do it. 

    No, probably not.  He's having a good year though, which I think is worth acknowledging.  

  10. 1 hour ago, inkman said:

     

     

    I thought the ship had sailed on near 27 year old Murray but if people want a big body, he’s got that.  Foot speed…not so much. 

    I think i remember the amerks twitter account recently saying he is leading the ahl in power play goals 🤔 

    edit:  to be clear, i'm not saying that he should be called up

  11. Byram has looked good... as the partner of Rasmus Dahlin.  Whoever Dahlin is paired with usually gets a boost, because he's just really good.  When Byram isn't paired with Dahlin (see long losing streak and all of his time prior to being paired with Dahlin on the first pair), he doesn't look great.

    Dahlin/Byram:  51% expected goals for (350 minutes on ice)

    Byram/X (X is anyone but Dahlin):  ~42% expected goals for every pairing (~350 minutes on ice total with players aside from Dahlin)

     

    Power, on the other hand, doesn't have the benefit of playing with Dahlin but has clear defensive deficiencies.  He seems more capable of carrying another partner when not paired with Dahlin.  His most frequent partner has been Jokiharju 🤢, but they have held their own (~200 minutes on ice w/ 46% expected goals).  For what it's worth, Dahlin/Power have about 80 minutes on ice together with a 65% expected goals for.  The Dahlin/Power number may be bloated though because I assume that they are being thrown out there when the Sabres are losing and the other team is trying to turtle/protect a lead.  Lastly, the Byram/Power pairing has been fairly ineffective as well:  

    Power/Jokiharju:  46% expected goals (170 minutes on ice)

    Power/Dahlin:  64% expected goals (60 minutes on ice)

    Power/Byram:  43% expected goals for (200 minutes on ice)

    Byram/Jokiharju:  43% expected goals (90 minutes on ice.  including this one since Joki has been paired with Power a lot)

     

    IMO, if you want someone that can carry a second line that's probably Power.  If you are just looking to pair someone with Dahlin, then Byram is your guy.

     

    Obviously, it's not that simple and there are a whole bunch of other factors besides their play thus far:

    1.  Does Byram truly want to be a true #1 defenseman as has been reported? 

    2.  Is Byram willing to stay in Buffalo long term? 

    3.  How much would Byram sign here for?  Is it less than Power's contract (it ought to be)?  How much so?

    4.  Do you think Power can improve his net front game/defensive without sacrificing much offensively? 

    5.  How are they on the second power play unit?  the numbers for the pairings were even strength numbers I believe

    6.  What can you get for either one on the open market?  

    7.  Can Byram improve and eventually be able to carry another defender on the second line so we aren't so top heavy on defense?

    credit to moneypuck for stats

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