sabresparaavida
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Posts posted by sabresparaavida
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6 hours ago, French Collection said:
Habs get a 20 goal scorer for an LTIR contract,
Sabres get a 7th round pick for taking on an LTIR contract. Could they flip Bishop to Vegas for an actual goalie like Brossoit? He will be behind Lehner and Thompson on their depth chart. He’s not a starter but has been a career backup at the NHL level.
IMO it is better than an LTIR contract.
Maybe there is another flip to be had?To the Knights, Dadonov was a cap dump. This is kinda similar to how they traded the reigning vezina winner last year for a meh forward prospect.
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6 hours ago, French Collection said:
Is that too low of a floor for you?
Monahan has played 656 games scoring 462 points. Best season was 34 goals and 82 points. Still only 27 so he can add some more.
Probably not what you expect from Wright if you pick him 1st but it could be his floor.
Imo, offensively it’s too high of a floor. Lafreniere was hyped up more than Wright as being an elite #1 W, and has really not done much yet. There’s still time for him to develop, but his floor is certainly below monahan. I think it’s definitely possible that Wright isn’t as good as monahan (preinjuries).
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Also of note: Cenderqvist did that season on what I’m assuming was on a bad SHL team, seeing how it got relegated this year.
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He had slightly better production than Oloffson did in the SHL at 21.
Cenderqvist: 49 gp, 14 g 18a 32 pointsOloffson: 51 gp 9 g 18a 27 points.
Oloffson exploded the following year, so would need a solid step forward to stay on a similar projection.
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As always, a fun read @DarthEbriate Do you have any random prospects unlikely to go in the first that caught your eye as far as names go?
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Koskinnen had .001% worse of a save percentage, and less salary than Gibson, yet I frequently saw oilers fans on capfriendly wanting to pay to dump Koskinnen. Then two posts later I’ll see massive packages for Gibson when he’s been at that level .904, .903, .904 for the past 3 years. It makes no sense.
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23 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Normally would agree w/ this, but we're at an unusual point and IMHO longer term won't necessarily mean lower $'s. Three years from now there's a very good likelihood the players will have reimbursed the owners for letting the players get more than 50% of revenues in 2020, so the cap could rise fairly substantially (as @tom webster likes to point out) and players aren't necessarily going to drop their AAV expectations significantly, if at all, to gain the security of another guaranteed year of getting paid.
This year & next year could see really u usual contracts being offered to find deals that work for both parties.
The thought process behind that, is that Campbell has had 1 season as a starter, where he performed quite well. I doubt teams are going to give long term contracts at a high salary when he hasn’t shown sustained success. A 1-2 year deal with 5.5 mil, sure, but I’d be surprised if a team paid him that for 5 years
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9 minutes ago, Hawerchuk said:
He's not on this list, but I think he's a UFA and that would be Jonathan Quick (LA Kings). He's 36 and I thought he had a good season and a good series against Edmonton in the first round. Throw him a 2 year deal $$$ he can't refuse. He could be a perfect stop gap Goaltender to hold the Sabres over while UPL, LEVI and PORTILLO figure it out.
If not, I voted for Josh Manson. Dude is a defensive stud.
I believe Quick has 1 year left on his contract.
And I believe Manson is no longer a defensive stud, his game has fallen off a decent amount.
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They’d have to pay me to take Gibson. Stolarz had drastically better numbers this past year, and Gibson has been below average for the past 3 years, and has 5 years left.
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Just now, Porous Five Hole said:
Again, I agree with you.
Please tell me who you think is going to give Jack Campbell, a veteran of 70 NHL games, 6M AAV?Depending on the term, I could see him making 5.5 from Buffalo, Edmonton or NJ potentially. If it’s longer term, the numbers will drop.
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3 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:
Yes I agree with what you’re saying. I’m just commenting that Campbell should not get the same percentage of cap as Helle. UFA or not.
In an ideal world, where $ equates evenly to on-ice production, that makes sense, but that just isn’t how the league works. Should McKinnon be making 3.6 million less than Eichel? Obviously not, but you’re never gonna have completely fair contracts across the league. Bobrovsky is making 10 million and is not quite the goalie that Helle is, and was signed as a UFA a few years ago. If you want better goaltending, you can’t really restrict what you’re willing to pay based on one contract of an elite goaltender who’s probably getting paid below market value.
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3 minutes ago, dudacek said:
UFAs of note: Fleury, Kuemper, Griess, Jones, Holtby, Campbell, Halak, Desmith, Lankinen, Husso
Others who may be available: Matt Murray, John Gibson, Simeon Varlamov, Alexander Georgiev, Robin Lehner, Peter Mrazek, Ilya Samsonov. Maybe Cam Talbot, and Jake Allen depending on what happens with Fleury and Price?
Who are the teams shopping for goalies?
Definitely Buffalo, Chicago, New Jersey, Toronto, Edmonton.
Probably some other teams might be looking for upgrades or shakeups, which will increase demand, but also displace some current starters.
I guess I don't see it as much of a seller's market as you do.
Of that list, who would teams look at as 1s or 1As?
Kuemper, Fleury, Campbell for near certainty would be.
Husso and Desmith have the stats for it, but have either not played enough in a season or only had 1 season where they did. Holtby is similar with not having played 25 games the past 2 seasons.
Halak the last 3 seasons has played 31, 19 and 17 games.
Greiss and Lankinen both had a .891 save percentage last year.
Jones had .900 as a backup.
It looks like there are 3 good options, with 3 more that SOME teams might deem acceptable. With your trade options, if they do end up moved, it creates a new hole so it likely doesn’t affect the market demand much. I think the top 5-6 goalies will be in high demand, because it drops off really fast in quality.
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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:
Maybe, but the perception of Andersen was that of a goalie in decline, he had some rough seasons for the leafs coming over from the ducks. He basically signed a deal to prove himself again.
Campbell made himself look like a solid 1A option in a goaliemarket where 10+ teams are looking for that and can chose between him, MAF, Halak and Holtby.
I’d add Kruemper to that list, and maybe Husso, but yeah there’s definitely more demand for good goalies than there is supply.
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I think their number for Husso may be slightly high, but I’d expect the contact for Campbell to come in that neighborhood. It only takes 2 teams to drive the price up for a goalie though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 2 teams thought Husso could sustain the year that he had.
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5 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:
I would love to know how evolving hockey has projected these goalie contracts. Contract projections is subscriber only content.
The Campbell projection is a few hundred grand from Hellebuyck AAV money. What the what??
Also, Husso has 61 NHL games played over three seasons. That’s now a 5 million AAV player? Not asking you, but asking out loud.
I am very skeptical of both projections.
1. It’s UFA, and the best options on the market for each position are always going to be overplayed (unless they are going back to their old team, then they MIGHT take a hometown discount.
2. Hellebyuk was an RFA, and signed before 2018-2019, so he isn’t exactly a great comparable for UFAs 4 years later.
3. There are a lot of teams that need goaltending this offseason, it looks like it will be a market in favor of the goaltenders as there are more chairs to be filled than there are quality goaltenders to fill them, which will push the prices of the Quality? Goaltenders up.
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9 hours ago, bunomatic said:
Tampa wins this one because this Avs team needs to lose one before they can win it next year. Thats how it works.🥴
The lightning lost in the first round before winning the last two cups 🤷♂️.
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15 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:
I agree he will be a major contributor. But I just don't need him to get over 18 min/game this season. If he does, and is worthy of it, all the better. I'm fine with even Bryson getting more 5 on 5 time (as long as it isn't Bryson/Fitz as the 2nd pair). Power can have room to grow while we lean on a Muel-Rasmus pairing. And if we get a vet for Joker, or a vet for Power is the key.
In Power’s 8 games this year, he averaged just over 22 minutes of ice time a game. I really don’t think there’s much chance of him playing 3rd pairing minutes
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1 hour ago, Curt said:
Bishops contract would need to fit under the cap on opening day of the season, but after that it could be moved to LTIR to create additional cap space.
However, the cap relief provided by LTIRing Bishop would not accrue for staying unused for later in the season, the cap space created by putting him on LtIr is for the present only.
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5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
Whelp, I was hoping for a bit more, but considering that cap space was almost certainly going unused anyways, I guess this move is a slight net positive?
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Just now, French Collection said:
Could he be flipped to a cap strapped team for LTIR relief once the season starts?
I am not worried yet, there is still a lot of cap space left. They could still take on Price, Bobrovsky and Pietrangelo.
Maybe this is part of a bigger deal?
Adding a player and putting him on LTIR does not help cap-strapped teams. They would be adding his 4.9 mil cap, then getting 4.9 in relief which would result in no change. The only time putting a player on LTIR helps you with cap space is if they are already on your team, then are put on, freeing up their cap space. Additionally, when you are using LTIR cap relief, excess cap space does not accrue for later in the season.
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16 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:
Bring me NOAH Warren in the 2nd round. Won’t have the offence of some of the others RHD but he Is a unicorn with the size, physicality and skating.
He is the type of guy that in 4 years when he has played a couple playoff series other teams will be talking about how they can find a NOAH Warren.
You would probably have to take him at 28, which I would be quite alright with.
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29 minutes ago, Brawndo said:
Chad DeDominics reported on the most recent Expected Buffalo Podcast that the Sabres are reportedly interested in Jack Campbell and adding to what Tom Webster mentioned PK Subban as well
I’d be quite happy with a Campbell add, preferably 3 years or less. If we did sign Campbell, I’d also like them to go after someone in the neighborhood of Desmith to solidify the backup position as well.
Another option could be trading for one of the Caps goaltenders to back up Campbell.
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And if we were anywhere close to the cap, or if I thought we had a reasonable chance of being cap strapped, I’d agree, Hinostroza likely would be better value. Because we have so much cap room, the cap isn’t a limiting factor, and therefore productivity is more important than it usually would be when compared to the price of the productivity.
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20 minutes ago, JohnC said:
I realize you have a purer approach to evaluating players that relies on the single issue of talent. However, my point is that every franchise doesn't take that idealistic view because there is a significant financial consideration that relates to the ratio between cost and production. In a cap sport that relationship becomes even more prominent on the business side of the hockey sport. To put it simply: talent and cost are inextricably linked. You can't look at either side of the equation in isolation.
They are linked, but right now, our constrictions are both the number of skaters we can add (due to a mostly full roster) , and how willing KA is to add to the roster, the cost of the players likely isn’t much of a factor due to how much cap room we have. The cap this year specifically is nearly a non-factor, as we could add 3 10 million dollar players and still fit under the cap.
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That was quick.