mjd1001

My overall point is he was making more of those saves last year than he is this year. By quite a bit. And while I may agree with your point that SOME shooters should score at that high of a rate, He is not only allowing goals to guys who shoot like Draisaitl, Matthews or Reinhart. There are some pretty 'average' guy scoring on him from those points (Like a Dylan Cozen level shooter who 1 out of every 2 shots, no matter from where they are taken, the goalie only has to move an inch or two to save.)

I like UPL, but I'm going to partially disagree with you. I agree he has had a handful of good games where he was the reason they won, or were 'in' it, but I think I have seen more goals this year from him where I said "he needs to make that save" than I had the entire year last year. Way too many. He has had good, sometimes great games. But he has also had more games where both they eye test (watching replays of goals allowed) AND the stats (save percentage) show he was below average. On many nights when you watch the replay of the goals allowed, its not all on the defense. Again, many times this year I'd watch a replay of a goal allowed, and the shooter is 10-15 feet out, no screen, and UPL was set for the shot, and he just isn't making some saves he made last year. From Christmas on last season, he had 3 total games with a save percentage under .850 over 38 games played. This year he has 7 games under .850 in just 30 games played. Yeah, I get the Defense isn't always great in front of him, but it wasn't last year either. He stood on his head to bail out the team in front of him a lot last season. The difference to me is there are way too many soft goals getting let in when he has a bad game. Again, not to repeat myself, but myself and others have posted in GDT's as they happen, there will be a shooter, not screened, not tipped, that UPL is set and facing and the shot still goes in too many times. For the majority of last year (except for the first 2 months) in UPL I saw a guy who was a top 5 goalie in the league most nights...that on a small handful of occasions had a bad game. This year in him I am seeing a below average starting goalie in the league most nights, that on occasion can have a great game. (last night was one of those great games obviously) Again, I like him and I think they should play him every game he is able to play, but to me this team is as low as they are in the standings for 2 reasons: Total black hole in production and overall play from a '2nd line' for most of the year, and substandard goaltending play.

And McLeod is doing that with 2 less minutes of ice time per game, with lesser/less talented linemates for the majority of the season, and with almost 100 minutes less PP ice time this year than Cozens (Cozens has almost 2.5 minutes of PowerPlay time per game, McLeod has 6 seconds per game)

Yeah, I agree. Its easy to say "if they didn't lose 13 in a row" but they did. There is a reason they did. The NHL didn't just add 13 losses to their total while telling the team to take a couple weeks off. Almost every team has stretches where the can say "look where we would be if we didn't lose 7 in a row" or "if only we didn't lose 6 out of 9" The games you win, ALL of the, and the games you lose, ALL of them, make you the team that you are. Right now by record they are tied for the 28th best team in the league out of 32 teams. By goal differential they are the 20th best team in the league out of 32. There are very few meaningful metric where they aren't not only in the bottom half of the league, but toward the bottom. They earned that, that is who they are.

Pettersson is not a perfect player. He hasn't played like an $11m player since he signed his extension. But he is a big time playmaker who can score also. When you watch him play, he can skate through traffic with his head up, he sees the entire offensive zone, he knows where his teamates are and is great at setting them up. He has 137 assists over the past 2.5 seasons. The BEST player on the Sabres over that time has 89 assists. Cozens has played more games than Pettersson and only has 78. I'd be worried about his contract and his drop in production recently, but I would be SO interested to see this current team with a legit playmaker/distributor at center unlike anyone we have seen in at least a few years.

In the past 2-4 weeks, I have thought he has played 'better' without the puck. Still not good, but there have been less glaring and costly errors. Still, he is in his 5th year now and making $7m. He has 3 goals and 5 assists in his last 11 games and is a -6 in those games. BETTER than the beginning of the year, but still not good enough. He's gone from being, in my opinion, one of the worst forward without the puck in the league to now someone who is just average. That is a big improvement for him. He either has to keep getting better, or he has to start scoring more. If he was 20 or 21 years old and in his 2nd or 3rd season, I'd be OK with 9 goals and 20 points in half a season with. But hes in his 5th season and turning 24 next month. It certainly is not "early". And his play lately has been better, but its been better than "bad". Other than a particular game here or there, I would not describe his play as "good" or use words like "well". If he is going to be here fine, but he still has to improve a LOT.

Here is a good one.... Toronto losing with 2 minutes left to Carolina. Austin Matthews with a goal, but he is a minus 6 tonight (-6). Stuff like that doesn't happen all that much. Also he only has just over 15 minutes of ice time tonight. since he came back from Injury, he's been over 20 minutes per game the last few games.

I like that the Sabres are winning, but for people wondering why or why they can't do this all the time.... They are playing a team that has some young guys that aren't the best without the puck (just like the Sabres), and the don't have their #1 goalie behind them to bail them out.

Quinn, Quinn and Cozens for the 3 goals? Sabres with a 3-0 lead? This is the bizarro game of the season so far.

I'm with you almost 100% there. UPL has shaken my confidence a bit with his play this year, but that is the nature of goalies.

Here is a good example of the '7 points back' thing being worse than it sounds. Just last night...in ONE Night, The Ottawa played Detroit and it ended in OT (3 points awarded), Columbus and Pittsburg went to overtime (3 points awarded) and even the Rangers lost but it went to OT and they got a point. 5 teams above them, including 4 that played each other, ALL got points.

I agree with you. 7 points out doesn't look bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the team(s) 7 points up is going to win games along the way. And its not one team, it is several, and those teams play each other so all the teams above you are going to make up points. Add to that the fact that there are going to be 'loser points' awarded along the way, and yeah, 7 points is a lot, espeically when the sabres have less games in hand to make up those points. I have started to think of it differently and I posted it a few times in the past month. Right now, 8th in the confrence is .512 point percentage (which is historically VERY low and if history is any guide, by the end of the year that number will be higher). To get to .523, they have to win 9 games in a row. That just gets you to that level. Boston, Montreal, C-bus, Pittsburgh, and Detroit are all a LOT closer to that level, and you would need NONE of them to pass that level at the same time. And in addition to them, Detroit, Philly, NYR and NYI are all ahead of you and statistically have a better chance of getting there than you do. So realistically when looking at the standings, an immediate 9 game winning streak only gets you to where 8th is now..but it would likely take a 10-12 game winning streak to GET you into that 8th spot (and then you'd have to hold onto it.) The 'points back' hill to climb isn't as linear as it appears. Being 8 points out of a playoff spot is MORE than twice as hard to make up as being 4 points out, for example. As far as the 13 game losing streak, lets say the team ends on on in immediate 13 game win streak. That would put them at .556 point percentage (91 point pace). Historically, that usually still misses the playoffs.

I singled him out because the person I was replying to was saying him being 'decent' was a good point of his game.

He's not decent. He's bad. He was bad last year, the year before, and up until the last 2 weeks his numbers were very bad this year. He had 2 good weeks of winning faceoffs, that doesn't elevate him to 'decent'. He's still bad, just he has had a 2 week stretch that make THIS YEARS number only below average (and yes, 50% is still below average for a center. Centers should win slightly more than 50% because they are often takign draws against less experienced wingers when the opposing center gets thrown out. He has been decent for the past few weeks, but for the rest of his career, including this years numbers... he is...bad.

Faceoffs? Cozens? What? He's under 50% for his career. He's under 50% this year. Was last year. And the year before. And the year before. And I don't have memory of him winning many crucial faceoffs at the end of the games that allowed the Sabres to score a critical goal, nor him winning many that allow the Sabres to get the puck out of the zone. Both McLeod and Krebs are better than him this year, and Krebs (in limited time) was ahead of him last year. Faceoff specialist he is not.

Do the rest of the team though... I think Dahlin is a top 20 D-man in the league overall. Tage I rate higher than many on this board do, I think he is one of the top forwards in the league. The issue is, Dahlin tries to do too much sometimes, and Tage can't stay healthy. The BIGGER issue is, what is the rest of the roster like? Besides these 2 guys, is there anyone on the roster that other teams fear at all in any way?

On one hand, I say if you can 'still get back into it' then you are never out of it. Realistically, they are done for the year. IF they run off a huge streak and get a lot closer, then I'll say "I was wrong" and change my thinking. Here is the updated reality of things: -Ottawa is in the 8th spot right now with 52.6% of the points. They have to win 9 more in a row just to get to that level. (and then continue to play well to maintain that 8th spot) -Over the last 5 seasons, you would have needed an average of 58.6% (averaged out, some years less, some more) to get the last playoff spot. (96 points) They would need to win the next 16 in a row to get there. And after that of course, continue to play well to maintain that spot. -or- as others have said, they have to play the 2nd half of the year at a 122 point pace just to get to 96 points.

Did they give the his stats vs Buffalo? I think Wilson vs the Sabres is something like 13 goals in 26 games (41 goal pace per 82). Vs the rest of the league he has 149 goals in 768 games (15.9 goal pace per 82)

He might have not seen it leave the stick, but it wasn't a total screen and he was set for the shot. I have mentioned this a few times in the past few days...UPL is having a LOT of shots that are 'should have been saved' or 'I need my goalie to have that one'. UPL playing like he did last year and not letting a couple soft ones in per week...and this team is in a better spot in the standings.

Would you put the Eichel trade/lead up to the trade in that list also? Eichel gets hurt. Every indication I have read about said it was Pegula who soured on Eichel, Pegula who didn't want him to get his surgery due to an insurance issue that the Sabres could be on the hook for money, Pegula who pushed for the move. With that said... Eichel gets traded (I wasn't against him being traded myself actually). 1.) Once he gets 1+ years out from his surgery and gets into his mid-late 20's, hes turned into a better player than he ever was with the Sabres. 2.) You can make a case that Reinhart would have stayed here if Eichel was still here, or at least its a strong possibility. 3.) The way the situation was handled, I think it at least partially contributed to players now wanting to come here, sign her, waive no trades to come here (I think winning vs losing is 80+% of that, but handling Eichel the way they did certainly doesn't help, and on some level makes it worse) Yeah, I mean, I think that is why Adams was hired though. I know others disagree with me, but Pegula wanted a guy who would agree with him. Who would take orders, execute them. Go in front of the microphone when things are bad and make himself look bad so Terry can hide away in Florida when that is happening.

I think he is bothered by it....but his ego is bigger than the embarassment. He wants it fixed, but he wants to fix things HIS way without admitting fault. Has Pegula ever (or at least recently, in the last 4-6 years) made any statements about the Sabres where he admitted he was wrong? Or even admitted 'we made a bad decision and we are going to fix that now?' Its apparent to me he has an ego...the more outsiders call for him to do something different, the more it seems he digs in even deeper, so when (IF) things change, he'll say it was 'his' way. That is my impression at least.

Let me add my favorite thing to the comparison....play away from the puck DRASTICALLY favores McLeod. I don't see McLeod make huge mistakes away from the puck. Cozens? I have stopped posting because its just so repetitive, but in the past year I have posted (in GDTs and other places) screenshot after screenshot and some videos of Cozen having WFT moments away from the puck. Chasing a puck into the corner he has no chance of getting and leaving his spot wide open. Finishing checks that only accomplish taking himself out of a play. Trying to make an ill-advised hit away from the puck and on the way to doing that, taking out himself and one of his own teammates. Taking shots on the PP where he blasts the puck into the shin pads of a defencder when a teamate is in his line of sight and wide open-uncovered (OK, that is one WITH the puck). Cozens NEEDS to score 30+ on this team to be of value to just make up for/even out all the negative things he does wihout the puck. If he doesn't improve his full game (scoring and away from the puck game), he needs to be gone, especially when considering his cap hit.

Please no. In some of the 'behind the scenes' draft and trade day videos, he has quite a lot of input into the team already. If a change is going to be made, I do not want anyone from 'inside the room' being elevated.

I think Clifton is pretty decent as long as you don't pencil him in higher than the 3rd pair. Erik Johnson was bad. The IDEA of a good veteran D-man was correct, but with Johnson, the 'good' part of it wasn't there at all.

This may be my personal bias against Cozens speaking here, but I think Cozens is more of a concern than Power. I see Power making 'bad' plays without the puck, vs Cozens making 'brutal' plays with it. Also, I'm willing (a bit) to give Power a tad bit more leash and time to improve. Cozens has been around longer so his leash is a lot shorter.