DarthEbriate

Ottawa hosts Detroit tonight (right now) and again tomorrow. They could end the series tied in points and games played (probably best for Buffalo) or Detroit could leave Ontario up by 8 points and the Sens fully cooked in time for the deadline. Should be fun hockey. No overtime, please!

But would you trade Bloom for Fitz? More like a 6th or 7th for Fitz. Jost was free.

No, they won't all make it to the Sabres, but Bloom could've been part of a powerhouse Rochester squad and then you use him as a sweetener for a better player than Stillman. Some 2nd + Bloom for a true playoff vet rental guy in 2 years, for example. As to Bryson: I don't think he makes it to Rochester, even at $1.8M next season. You waive him and some playoff contender out there could use a #7/8. I'm thinking the Wild. They've got an emergency loan D right now that Bryson would immediately replace in the lineup. Then, he could replace a washed-up Goligoski when Brodin gets back. They may be in cap hell next year but they've got 10M in space this season and could always dump Bryson for a 6th over the summer or waive him during camp when his cap hit would be likely to sneak him through.

It does, but more slowly. It also, by design, is only looking at players. I'd have to research the others to see how much consideration is taken for coaching or even how they'd calculate that if it wasn't something consistently established like a Torts-defensive-shell. If you want something super-reactive, there are always power rankings. The alternate side of it is this: if the Sabres inexplicably miss the playoffs in 2027 after a rash of injuries and a key UFA departure, a bunch of reactive folks will predict that they're done. The Athletic's more stable model will look back at 2025 and 2026 and correctly say: nope, this team is still a top-notch Cup-contender in 2028.

I've got a bad feeling about this. For Bloom -- that's a guy you sign and get to Rochester and see what he's got as a solid bottom-six guy. If he burns it up but is blocked by a bunch of 1st round picks on the big squad, then move him in a couple years. This is... odd.

It's not crap; it's working as designed. However, their model all about regression and is slower to react to breakout players. https://theathletic.com/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/ The Athletic's model takes the player's past 3 seasons into account. It's really accurate if you're looking at the Penguins. You've got Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and a goalie of some sort and you're in the playoffs every year. If they're all trending downward, the model will begin to capture that and say, "This window is shut." Or, if say: Giroux and DeBrincat who have previous years of awesomeness join the Sens this model says "Two near-point-per-game players added to the lineup... hell yes!" The Sabres don't get that benefit. They get 1/2 season of top-level Tuch, one season of Skinner, one season of TNT-version Thompson. They get points, but only 1/2 season of post-2022 ASG defense Dahlin. They don't get data on JJP or Quinn or Power. And they get their goaltending: Comrie would be the highest rated the past three seasons. They're also still carrying 1.5 seasons of the Krueger effect on almost everyone. Next year, look for The Athletic's rating of the Sabres to jump substantially, and then the year afterward -- once Krueger Effect is gone and we've got 3 seasons of TNT, no "healthy scratch Skinner", and Norris-Dahlin... that's when the Sabres will be atop the world with that model. And --- it sort of makes sense. The NHL is slow-changing in terms of playoff participants each season, so the 3-year aggregate sort of works. Compare that with an NFL where 1/3 of the playoff teams switch from season to season -- there, you're probably just looking at QB play as the safest guess for who makes the playoffs. What will be curious is how much the model could be adjusted this next summer in terms of its weighting because of teams like the Sabres/Devils who get big contributions from kids without much 3-year history.

<retracts left hand from other mouse> I... what now?

This. If he flat out tells them he's not coming back during this summer --- they almost have to trade him over the summer for a boatload. Otherwise, even as a UFA, the only way they trade him is if they're clearly out of it come the 2024 trade deadline.

He's got 5 quality starts in 6 career starts. Last season he was 2-0 with a .948 sv%. He's the best signed goalie in the Sabres system. So... what team claims him off waivers?

Ideally, a team like WSH sells now and bottoms out, so you eliminate competition or pick them over for a Jensen if so inclined.

I think with this season it's a matter of what is over the top for Buffalo. I'm happy to rent a defender if over the top means making the playoffs. But I'm not parting with a 1st or 2nd because I don't think there's a legitimate shot at the semis or ECF. So... no BUF 3rd. What am I able to get for a 4th? That's a 3rd pairing person you expect 12-16 minutes out of. Instead of the Jensens and Schenns and Gavrikovs whose GMs are dead-set on hiking up the price for, it's more Justin Braun or... eeek... Nathan Beaulieu level.

I agree on the hit rate and also the risk and timeline. But that's 6 assets for 1 player I think is closer to a Kassian-level career than a Lucic.

I get where you're going with any rentals being failures if the only success criteria is a Cup win. Sometimes the criteria is making the playoffs or solidifying a lineup. I believe Giroux was an excellent add for them in the "solidify the lineup" sense. The Panthers fizzled in the playoffs against God Mode Vasilevskiy, but then, every Eastern team to face Tampa has met that same end in the last 3 years. But Giroux was an excellent pickup for them. 16-4 record with him in the lineup to close the year -- their points per game percentage went up with him in the lineup. 23 points in 18 regular season games. Another 8 points in the playoffs. Again, up until Tampa. It wasn't just Giroux that disappeared.

Pysyk is signed with the Red Wings but had a season-ending injury in training camp. Maybe an Achilles? I'd have to look it up.

Jeannot had a great rookie season last year. 24 goals, tons on deflections. He also had several fights. He's an easy guy for fans to rally around, but I'm guessing he's likely to have more seasons like this one than his rookie year on the scoresheet. Tampa wants to continue to be big and tough and crosscheck people into crossbars. Jeannot lets them do that. Unlike Nashville, they don't need Jeannot to score a bunch of goals for them. But dang is that a lot of draft capital for a guy who's a bottom-six on his new team. (The trade makes it look like Tampa thinks he's going to be mid-20s Lucic and I'm skeptical of that.)

Huh.... It was 2-1 TBL in the lead... Looks like the Sabres solved the Lightning for the rest of the league. The last 5 minutes of the second period gave off some serious Slovakia vs. Bulgaria vibes.

He'd be a fair addition to the bottom pair, but methinks the return maxes out at a 3rd.

Winnipeg's been struggling lately. Lost 4 of 5 with barely any goals scored. 4 wins in their last 11 --- but two of those wins were against CHI (before their hot streak) and STL (as they were winding down to a Tarasenko trade). Relying on them for assistance today is a tough ask. Tampa vs. PIT though... that's something we could see. Maybe Paul crosschecks Letang into Jarry and takes them both out.

How many goalies do we got on this ship anyway? <all goalies stand up. Except Michael Winslow who's making skating whoosh, board rattle, and puck hitting post noises> I knew it! I'm surrounded by goalies.

The Sabres sweep their 3-game road trip 4/1-4/6, effectively ending Florida's season and leaving the Sabres with just one point to clinch a playoff spot in their remaining 5 games. Lo and behold, Levi and Portillo both sign. It's now a 5-headed hydra goalie. Levi 2-0 with 1 shutout. Portillo 2-0 with a .938. And UPL gets the final game of the season at Columbus. The Sabres ice an opening night lineup against Carolina in game one of the EQFs of TNT, Anderson, UPL, Levi, Comrie, and Portillo. They play a 1-0-0-4 alignment against Carolina's zone exits. And win. Comrie with the hattie.

More love for Thorny. 4 goals, 4 assists. It’s gonna be really good

Nailed it. Lovely Sabres, keep playing this heart.

We now know the Sabres can defeat a slow, veteran team on back-to-back legs. That's the easy part. Stepping up without Dahlin or Tuch? That's the important part. Now, go win a game without wearing the goatheads. Keep on the attack.

Nope. It's NHL network. All I've got is occasional radio as I wander past about doing chores. I left at 3-2 and got back and it was 6-2. I'm oblivious to all the garbage in the final minutes of the 2nd. I'm living in a world where the Sabres will win handily in the third. Out of curiosity: was it a drop-back or poor pass in the o-zone? Because I'm saying you can rifle it back to a D behind the Sabres net (Power, Joker) and wait for them to try their forecheck again and start another rush.

The Sabres decided they wanted to have the most entertaining bit of hockey this season: the Sabres with a 2-goal lead going into the 3rd. Gotta play smart, not get goaded into anything that allows the refs to try even and let the power play decide things, and ramp up the speed. Run the Caps out of the rink. None of this 20 shots against garbage. Hold the puck, skate fast, pass fast, and don't be afraid to pass back and reset and continue to hold it. And strike a few more times, too.