Randall Flagg

I call this piece "Clode" [stolen from someone on twitter, sorry person my feed refreshed and it's gone so I can't cite]

Also every time I looked up Larry, Kyle, and Zemgus were cycling in the offensive zone They're a machine that runs like clockwork and that's got a ridiculous amount of value compared to the amount of talk it would get from non-Sabres fans

This power play unit isn't just wild in its results, the passing plays are from another planet. We are really seeing the Stamkos-Kucherov opposite circle effect play out right in front of our eyes And if Hedman owned the namesake for the role that pivots between them, Dahlin is going to steal it from him in short order

Our feed buffered during Eichel's second goal and the replays. Just saw it. Mother of god I love Jack thank god we don't have Autumn I-harass-women-and-don't-tell-my-GM-about-getting-arrested-for-it-and-have-a-gross-mustache Matthews Oh captain my captain

Vlad has played with strong effort and he's added to the faceoff dot and made some nice defensive plays too. The plays that make you want him out of the top six in the offensive zone are certainly still there, rather comically highlighted by the fact that his linemates each have four points to his zero, which is as much luck as it is skill difference. But he's busting a sweat that I haven't seen from him since early last season, during a time that made earned him a "C" on my first third of the season report card. If Krueger can keep this team afloat for longer than they stayed relevant last season, and we get this Vlad the rest of the way, there will be a lot less complaining from ME about him (sorta like how in 17-18 I went after KO every other post but have since mostly only had positive things to say about him). Sabrespace rejoices That said, just like my sentiment before the season, if we can find a way to get one more top six player into this organization, I will begin to not only be excited/hopeful for the 'p' word like I am now, but will believe/expect it to happen. Which would be bananas because I'm a negative nancy by temperament Some people might have the philosophy that a strong offensive start might mean we should sit pat in that search, but man this start has made me more eager for it. Chucking Ehlers/Zucker/Toffoli/whoever (just throwing names out, if you don't like one of those guys that's fine) into this lineup too?! How could you not want that? We literally have more than one NHL-caliber defensemen that simply aren't playing in this current top six that is doing just fine in wide-open October NHL hockey. I really hope something can materialize because it can effectively be a forward skill and depth boost at the expense of NOTHING we've seen to this point. And I'm always a little worried about Mojo's full-season availability. Buy into your team Jason they deserve it (and did last year too)

Right, like as quiet as he and Mitts (since Pit) have been, they're going to get some points at some point, so hopefully when our top line isn't contributing to 4-5 goals per game (god that's awesome) there won't be a big drop off.

Olofsson's shooting ability and Johansson's skating/passing have allowed talent that was confined to one line last year to seep into other lines. It's doubled the amount of ice time that you can expect skilled plays and scoring chances to come reliably from our forwards. Imagine finding a way to get one more top six player, and the freedom that comes with it to either overpower a second offensive line or to turn a third one into something regularly dangerous.

The fun thing about Dahlin is that Ralph has now given us two games in which two things were notable (not tonight, the first two): Dahlin's ice time seeming low and his spots picked carefully a lack of the gaffe that has become typical/expected Watch Ralph turn this kid into EK...but with Lidstrom defense

I saw a couple of fun plays where he smeared red into the walls

I really couldn't watch this game closely because I was watching with family, but it was enjoyable to see goals and Jack points! Seemed like a lot of the guys who had rougher games were still rewarded with stats. Reminded me of the first two games against the Canadiens last year. Like, a lot. In fact, the last two games against these two opponents (CBJ, MTL) were eerie in their similarities to the October games against them last year. In a good way, because the Sabres were pretty good early last year. Two more points bby Seems like Dahlin takes a lot of penalties. Olofsson scores a lot. He's pretty quiet at even strength for now. But not bad, per say. Ralph really seems to use the third line (Mitts) sparingly. But I haven't looked at the numbers, it just feels that way. Seems justified based on what I've seen from them. Haven't hurt us, but haven't done too much to help since game 1. We'll see how their games change going forward Being in WNY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> being anywhere else on earth Hate seeing Montreal red take over the lower bowls on TV. Lotta empty seats there, I'd have loved to be sitting in one of them cheering on our boys That was an interesting selection of players to play the OT power play. Miller now has two Eichel-like cross ice feeds for Johansson goals. His Zhitnik-esque shot is more endearing than frustrating Eichel spent some shifts looking funky, and others looking like the best he's ever been. Keep smilin' and keep scorin' Jeffrey. Florida up next - ***** I hate Sabres-Panthers games as much as I love Sabres-Habs games

Like how irrelevant O'Reilly was through 3 weeks last year? Its his first real hockey in 6 months, give him a second and enjoy the goal we scored on the penalty he drew on a strong transition play

Don't want that label, but I'm pretty sure the stats favored the Sabres tonight!

Why? This is identical to the freewheeling hockey these teams played against each other last year. Lots of fun.

While I don't think he's our best forward this season, he has graciously accepted his role and is performing it incredibly well. If only "the Larry line" wasn't so easy to say and type, it could well be named after Kyle instead Correct, shots/shot attempts weighted by something like six different parameters (location, type etc)

There was a neat article in The Athletic (***** gotta cancel my free week subscription, good catch Flagg), after the Canadiens-Leafs game, highlighting the differences in roster building those two teams take, Leafs with the superstars taking up most of their cap, and MTL with the goalie and 4 middle-six-tier lines. (Though their top line is legit) I think it's possible that Montreal's depth gives our guys some trouble, particularly Mittelstadt's line. Although last year some of the best games from guys playing in tonight's Sabres depth (Rodrigues, Sobotka, Okposo in particular) came against the Canadiens. It should be exciting either way if last year has any carry over.

Does Tierney have any plain old GF/GA plots? That's what pi's thing is, with Sean's typical adjustments for ice time, team etc. I only ever see Tierney with shot-attempt-based-metrics or WAR/GAR

It's painful for me to say, as one of Jack's biggest fans, and there are a lot of factors that have nothing to do with Jack influencing it, but in his career he is ultimately a pretty damn negative ES player, and that's something that would necessitate changing one way or another for this team to be good. We KNOW that when he's with Jeff, he can be a VERY positive player for a very long period of time. And that the team can win while this happens. That's why it's my first default for if things were to go sour.

And I'm good with this. I don't think Ralph has explicitly made any errors or anything, and I'm as excited as anyone to see it play out. Just laying out what I'm looking for over the next couple weeks, and what I'd like to change if the top line can't stay above water in goals

I'm not saying anything in this thread has been. We have won 2 of 3 games, which is nice, but we will not win at that rate IF the Eichel line can't score at even strength, so literally allllllllllllll I'm ssayyyyyyyyyyyying is that if that brief trend continues, we should shake things up. Nothing more, nothing less.

Right, it's too early for trends to be cemented - which is why I started by saying that "I'm going to be watching the Eichel line tonight" for ES production. Just that, if it doesn't start to happen, I'd like to go back to Eichel-Skinner. And I know Skinner can drive a second line, but Sam was very good away from Eichel last year too, so that's the thing I'd go for. I think Sam-Mojo-Olofsson could be very good if we wanted to go that way, with Jack-Jeff up top. But again, this is only if our top line continues to get outscored, I'm not gonna nag Ralph for any lineup decisions right this second. I would try to avoid 53-9-23 for the reasons you state. And you're right, drawing penalties is incredibly important. But Jack-Jeff drew them at a ludicrous rate together last season, nothing about them playing together indicates to me that it would happen less often, because it's not like Skinner is a puck-dominant player without Jack. He does his thing no matter where he is, and he's historically a 25-35 goal scorer doing it away from Jack, and gets bumped up when with Jack. So I don't think that'd be a huge issue, but I'm sure it's something you could watch for.

Most important takeaways right here

Vlad might be better in the defensive zone. Either way, over long periods of hockey, he winds up finding himself spending 75% of the time there, which is why his impact on team defensive metrics is bad, whereas when Evan is on the ice, the Sabres tend to be controlling the puck in the offensive zone, because of things he's capable of doing (again, shamelessly promoting the brief Rodrigues film breakdown I did this summer in the middle of my video project, highlighting these things and why they make his stats look that way), and so his defensive metrics look a lot better than Vlad's because opponents aren't taking shots against us in general during that time. Whichever of those you value more...

I suspect this may be true too, but as you know from the energy I put into things like the Larry line, and Rodrigues, I'm all about fine-tuning roster choices so that you maximize what you have in every instance on the ice, because I really think it makes a difference. You can watch any one game and say "yeah well making this small switch wouldn't have changed the result tonight" and be 'technically' correct, but a lot of hockey games happen to build your final record, and the way last season unfolded has changed the way I look at how hockey works - it has become clear to me that those small changes matter as much as anything else as time goes on, and they're also the thing the guys in charge have the most control over, since trades require other interested parties which can be hard to find in the grind of the season. Closely following our middle six starting during the win streak, being alarmed by what I saw, "but we are winning" push-back to any of these suggestions at the time, and then seeing that problem continue unabated for 2 months even as it contributed in a large way to unraveling our season, when within-the-organization changes were available, I dunno, I just watched the amount it mattered accelerate as we did nothing to change it. Hell, it's how Bill Belichick dominates seasons that only have 16 opportunities for decisions like that to play out. He meticulously perfects and exploits every possible position, in large and small ways, and views even the tiniest detail as critical to maximizing the chances of success, and he'll tell you that. So yes, I'm going to keep harping "the little things" and cite work I've already done and successful predictions in the face of the very same "eh it doesn't actually matter, you're being ridiculous, this is fine" that's already being set to start again like last season never happened or was always doomed to fail from the start as if there was nothing we could have done to stop ourselves from being by far the worst team (record-wise) to ever win 10 games in a row So with that being said, yes I want Skinner-Eichel together soon, unless Eichel-Olofsson-Reinhart start outscoring their opponents at even strength. I'm not saying they've failed to this point, or that I wouldn't give them more games, just that if the script doesn't change from its brief start, we should adjust accordingly.

Well, I think he's had a good start to the season. But I need his line producing at 5v5, so I'll just restate, if that doesn't happen over the next week or two, I'm going to look to kick start it. Implicit in this narrative is that, over time, if Jack isn't producing 5v5, this team isn't going to be successful. It's not all about Jack

I would pay Sean Tierney and those guys money to not make a single chart until December starts