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Andrew Amerk

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Posts posted by Andrew Amerk

  3. Klesla will not join the Sabres organization

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    Apparently I don't.

     

    The Caps don't owe the Sabres anything. Once they got rid of him, it's not their fault nor their problem that he didn't want to play for the last place Sabres, nor their farm club.

     

    If they traded him knowing he was injured, different story.

     

     

    Except the Sabres don't care about Klesla, at all.

     

    And this.

  5. The Tank is Done (Now we're just bad)

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    Not exactly right. Based on the historical data, if you consider an arbitrary (randomly-selected) draft, there is a 25% chance that the player chosen first overall will become a franchise player. Next year is not an arbitrary draft. It is a specific draft with a specific top prospect. While it is certainly not 100% sure that McDavid will be a franchise player, he also certainly has a better chance than an arbitrary top prospect. Crosby had a far greater than a 25% chance when he was drafted and so will McDavid. Sam Reinhart (or whoever is the top pick this year) probably has a less than 25% chance of becoming a franchise player. Several recent years have had top prospects who were expected to be great players, but not franchise players (i.e., very unlikely to happen.) Those years balance out the Crosby, Stamkos and McDavid years where top prospects are expected to be (and, more often than not, do become) franshice players to give an overall hit rate of 25%.

     

    While I agree that McDavid looks special, there are never any guarantees.

     

    Remember what prompted the draft lottery to begin with? Another "can't-miss" player - Alexandre Daigle:

     

    Leading up to the 1993 NHL Entry Draft, Daigle was considered a "can't miss" prospect and NHL superstar-in-waiting. The Senators were even accused of deliberately losing games late in the 1992–93 season, their first in the NHL, in order to guarantee the first overall selection and the right to draft him. This prompted an investigation by the NHL, who soon implemented a draft lottery to prevent such things from happening again. The Senators subsequently finished dead last in the 1992–93 league standings, thus securing the rights to the first overall pick. As the draft approached, the Quebec Nordiques, who were hosting the event, were reportedly so eager to draft the next French-Canadian superstar that they were rumored to have offered star players such as Owen Nolan, Peter Forsberg, Ron Hextall, and draft picks, but Ottawa management disregarded all offers. Daigle was selected first overall by the Senators, ahead of future superstars Chris Pronger and Paul Kariya, who were picked second and fourth, respectively.

  14. All about St. Louis's Blues

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    I mean they only used him for a four game stretch and they were all separated by a day. They aren't forcing him to play in the back-to-back. I don't think he's being overused or anything.

     

    He's also on a team giving up the second fewest shots in the league.

  17. All About Tim Murray

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    That's fine as long as he gets his offensive touch back. Like Murray said he a complimentary player.

     

     

     

    If I'm Murray I'm going one more year of the tank especially with McDavid sitting there plus who knows what the Islanders do with that 1st they traded us. We could possibly have 2 picks in the top 5. Not many teams ever get that. I think it could be a fast turn around if that happens.

     

    Odds are pretty damn good that we get two of the top 5 picks either this year or next.

     

    I have no opinion of TM yet, need to see more work.

  21. The Tank is Done (Now we're just bad)

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    Yup, and there's sometimes a Corey Perry sitting at pick 29. But what are the odds of either of those things happening?

     

    I would say that around 13 of the 50 number 1 draft picks were actual franchise players. So, approximately a 25% chance that if the Sabres choose first, their selection is a franchise-changer.

  24. The Tank is Done (Now we're just bad)

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    Let's be reasonable here, that just isn't true. Everybody wants elite talent, but not everyone wants to deliberately tank to get it. I disagree with them and their reasoning, but there's no reason to distort their position.

     

    There's always an Alexandre Daigle, Bryan Berard, or Patrik Stefan waiting to be taken 1st.

  25. The Tank is Done (Now we're just bad)

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

     

     

    I can see 1 scenario with this occurring; risto and Zadorov come up and along with Myers light it up. Armia and Grigs become such an amazing tandem in Rochester and it follows in Buffalo. Enroth and Neuvirth pull off what Crawford/Emery did last year and Stafford scores 30. Hodgson and Ennis have great years, Girgs becomes a consistent scorer and Ott and or Moulson resigns.

     

    Aren't Ott and Moulson a little too young to resign?

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