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Everything posted by dudacek
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Okposo slid back statistically from his solid comeback season two years ago. His ice time dropped from 4th among Sabres forwards to 6th — fed largely by less time on both special teams — as Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens moved past him. At the same time his production fell off, his possession numbers took a significant leap to 52.4% 5-on-5 despite starting ice that was heavily skewed to the defensive zone. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=93992 Kyle was named captain to start last season and quickly cemented his position with his forthright, articulate takes with the media, effort on the ice, and unanimous support from a seemingly tight room. Many players called him the best captain they’d played with. After a brief period of reflection, the UFA resigned for one year, making it very clear that this team needs to embrace a higher standard: “Should our goal be to make the playoffs, to be 2 points better than this year? No. That’s expected now. You set the goal of winning a Stanley Cup and then you don’t touch that. You don’t run from that. You don’t let that weigh you down at all. The time is now.” What do you expect from Okposo this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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After a stellar year in Rochester, Quinn more or less met the expectations of most observers last season, finishing 7th among NHL rookies in points and 8th in goals. His season was the 8th-best by a Sabres rookie this century, 11 points fewer than Thomas Vanek and 5 back of Sam Reinhart. He was also pretty responsible defensively over the year, despite a quiet -16 run over the final 2 months of the season. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=208510 One of the things that stood out about Quinn was his absolute fearlessness in trying to attempt plays. He had some spectacular misses and instances where he was clearly overpowered, but he kept pushing and seemed to create more time and space as the season progressed. All this was rendered somewhat moot in late June when he suffered an Achilles injury that Kevyn Adams said would keep him out for 4-6 months. Anthony Duclair suffered a similar injury in July of 2022 that kept him out until Feb. 24. What do you expect from Quinn this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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I'd take Dahlin, but Stutzle is pretty clear #2 for me as of this moment And I'd take Tkachuk over Tuch and I'm a huge fan of Alex. But the gap between Tage and Stutzle is lot smaller than the gap between Dahlin and Chabot. Power over Sanderson, but that one will have to play out over time Cozens over Norris easily Mitts looked like he hit Batherson's level last year, but will have to repeat this year
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #23 Mattias Samuelson
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
I heard that discussion. Generally fits with my interpretation of what Granato was saying after free agency too, although it led me to pencil Johnson with Dahlin and Jokiharju with Mule as the base alignment, which puts a puckmover on each pair. -
I said it months ago: there is no incentive for Power to sign for less than 8 million if he’s going to give the Sabres 8 years.
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #23 Mattias Samuelson
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
I was kinda hoping a few of our analytically inclined posters were going to do a deep dive into Mule’s charts because I don’t really have a good handle on them. I love the kid’s game, so maybe that’s a good thing. -
I always get a chuckle over those celebrating the manufactured cutthroat corporate machine of the NFL over the bumbling backyard pond operations of the NHL. Choose your illusion.
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #24 Dylan Cozens
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Cozens attitude and approach to the game seem beyond reproach. I'm curious about the ceiling on his talent. His U22 season production of 68 points was the 5th-best in franchise history. It's hard to make exact comparisons between eras, but it fits with hall-of-famers Perreault (74), turgeon (79) and Andreychuk (62), as well as stars like Mogilny (64), Martin (73), Gare (73) and Eichel (64). I'm not as confident of him taking the next step as I am about Power, but he's definitely a piece that has that potential. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #27 Devon Levi
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Lance lysowski tweeting that Levi is skipping rookie camp and prospects challenge and going directly to the main camp. -
Mule’s importance to the team — and his reputation with the fan base — was cemented this season with one jaw-dropping statistic: the Sabres played like a 104-point team with him in the lineup and a 64-point team without him. He is not an offensive threat but gets a lot of hard minutes against a lot of tough opponents. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=196144 The fact that he has been around for parts of 3 seasons, and his general presence belies just how inexperienced Samuelson is. This is a player who has played only 109 NHL games. He also has a reputation for defensive excellence that isn’t necessarily reflected in his fancy stats, which generally show a player who has been lifted by his usual partner, Rasmus Dahlin. That said, he passes the eye test as a player who uses his size and his range effectively to snuff opponents. A key for both himself, and the team is his health. He’s been banged up enough to miss significant time in each of his three pro seasons. What do you expect from Samuelson this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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Jack Hughes (43 points) and Tim Stutzle (32 points) took tremendous leaps in production last year to become stars and the two highest scoring U22 players in the NHL. Number three on that list was Cozens, who scored 31 goals as part of a 30-point jump that helped him earn a 7-year $50 million contract. Overall, he finished 41st in the league in goals and 61st in points— clear 1st-line numbers — and was a particularly dangerous player in offensive transition. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=197770 Cozens work ethic and physical bent helped disguise some holes defensively; his possession numbers were among the worst of the team’s regular forwards. That said, he was used in a clear 2C role for most of the season, flanked by 2 rookies. He enters this season being challenged to improve his play in his own zone while at the same time pursuing 40 goals and 80 points as viable targets in year 4. What do you expect from Cozens this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #26 Rasmus Dahlin
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Not disagreeing with you, just taking it a step further. Dahlin is beyond the "late addition to the all-star game" tier. He's reached perennial candidate for season-ending all-star team tier. I believe he is paying a penalty in terms of public perception for being on a also-ran team. He doesn't play in a major market, isn't the poster child of a major network property and hasn't been showcased on major stage like the Stanley Cup playoffs. he's also not far removed from the stink of Krueger and how it affected both his play and the perception of the team. it's the flip side of the same coin that at sees Matthews always lumped in with McDavid instead of Pastrnak, and Makar being a Norris finalist despite a season where other players surpassed him in nearly every statistical measurable. His big new contract will put more eyes on him, but the only real way to change it is for the team to be good enough that you force each other into that conversation. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #25 Owen Power
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Power strikes me as one of those seemingly chill personalities who is constantly processing and actually 8 steps ahead of everyone else under the surface. He’s someone who lives and breathes hockey. And he has Nik Lidstrom’s IQ in Larry Robinson’s body. I will be very surprised if he doesn't take a big step this year. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #26 Rasmus Dahlin
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Maybe I’m been out in the sun too much this summer, but the kid has become everything we hoped he would be when he was drafted. He’s not just one of the NHL’s best defencemen, he’s one of its best players. The rest of the league hasn’t caught up yet because Buffalo, but barring injury they will by season’s end. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #27 Devon Levi
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Kevyn Adams certainly isn’t oblivious to the pushback for his goaltending choices. He’s effectively said “I think Levi will be a better #1 and either UPL or Comrie will be a better #2 than whatever our other options are at the moment.” I think it’s interesting how many people seem to disagree with the above, yet (according to the poll) seem to agree with the Levi half of the equation. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #25 Owen Power
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
I thought being patient with the puck was/is Power’s greatest strength. When he has the puck, he likes to slow the game down, but to me it’s always with purpose. The only area of his game I see any sort of tentativeness is in his one-on-one defence, where he needs to make things harder on opponents by taking time and space away with speed and authority. -
A year ago we wondering what kind of deployment OP would get, as in what kind of sheltering might be necessary. No one had the bingo card marked “no sheltering at all”. Power finished 5th in the entire National Hockey League in even-strength ice time. That’s not just among rookies, that’s among all NHL skaters. As far as rookies go, his ES TOI per game was the highest ever recorded. The only appreciable difference between his production and Mortiz Seider’s Calder winning season a year ago were the points Seider put up on the power play. That and being +19 ahead of the Red Wing darling. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=217120 As good and as calm as Power looked last year, there was no mistaking two things: you could tell he was still learning and that he needed to get stronger. It will be interesting to see what he took away over the summer and how he will apply it next year. This was a player who more or less doubled his production in his 2nd USHL and NCAA seasons. What do you expect from Power this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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Had Don Granato forced Dahlin to rest and rehabilitate during a 3-week stretch in March he would have finished the season with 71 points and a +28 in 66 games. Playing through an obvious injury for those 12 games (2 points, -16) likely cost Dahlin a Norris trophy nomination. Even with that stretch, his charts ranked among the best of the NHL’s best on both sides of the puck. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=201658 Many expect Rasmus to sign a new long-term deal prior to the start of the season that will cement him as the team’s centrepiece for the remainder of this decade. He is still just 23 years old but has five seasons under his belt and has already forced himself into a small circle of elite NHL defencemen. All that’s left to do is to establish himself and his team as a winner so he gets the same benefit of the doubt the league’s other top defensemen do. What do you expect from Dahlin this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #28 Zemgus Girgensons
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Can’t wait to see him force a turnover late to seal the Sabres first playoff win since April 22, 2011. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #31 Eric Comrie
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Unless Luukkonen craps the bed in camp, Eric will be on an out-of-town flight by October with a late-round pick coming the other way. Nice guy, fringe NHLer. -
Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #27 Devon Levi
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
Devon Levi is the real deal and will show it immediately. Goalie purgatory is over. -
Levi topped off a 2nd straight Richter Award as the NCAA’s top goalie with a 5-2 run for the Sabres in the midst of a precarious playoff race where he posted an adjusted save percentage (according to Clear Sight Analytics) that would have put him just inside the top 10 for NHL starting goalies). For 3 straight years he’s been selected to Team Canada (WJC, Olympics, Worlds). He’s played about as well as any goalie could be expected to in whatever situation he’s been placed in and has clearly been the Sabres’ preferred choice in net since he arrived. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=226016 It’s not that a rookie goalie can’t play 50 games; it’s happened 13 times since 2000, and as recently as last year with Calder Trophy finalist Stuart Skinner. Karel Vejmelka and Alex Nedeljkovic each did it 2 years ago, and 28 rookies goalies have played at least 40 over that span. The issue is a 21-year-old rookie doing it. That’s happened exactly once this century: Steve Mason with Columbus in 2008/09. Very, very few goalies step into a prominent NHL role without at least some time apprenticing in the minor leagues. Levi may have a history of doing things his way, but if he starts the year as at least a co-starter, he’ll be treading ice mostly skated by names like Price, Luongo and Fleury. What do you expect from Levi this year?
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No one was surprised when Z put up his usual 10 goals and 18 points last year while supplying hard skating, defensively responsible play. The fact he only missed 2 games to injury might have been a bit of a shock. https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130896 A healthy Zemgus will move past Mike Foligno and Rick Martin this year and into 10th place on the all-time Sabres’ games played list. After a decade of wearing the blue and gold, he has yet to play a playoff game. Both the Sabres and Girgensons had options to switch things up this year in free agency, but each signed up for at least one more try. What do you expect from Girgensons this year? (Last year’s takes here)
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Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #37 Casey Mittelstadt
dudacek replied to dudacek's topic in The Aud Club
I think Casey is probably the 2nd most interesting player on the roster, after Levi. And by interesting I mean the player the broadest range of potential outcomes and the greatest chance of influencing where the team ends up, good or bad: it’s like he might be Holzinger, or he might be Roy. After seeing Tuch and Dahlin and Thompson make the steps they did 2 years ago then improve even more last year under Granato, it’s pretty easy to see Casey following in their footsteps. It might feel like he’s been around for as long as they have, but he’s basically a season behind them in terms of development and NHL games played. I tend to think the inconsistencies of last year would chart as growth, rather than a series of peaks and valleys, and he’s won me over with his character. Im optimistic. -
I mentioned the same trio a while back with the same mix of intrigue and trepidation. To answer your question, Greenway had 63 assists in 185 games in 3 years on on Minnesota’s checking line with Foligno and Erikson-Ek. He’s not terrible at getting others the puck.