PickaPecaPickles
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Posts posted by PickaPecaPickles
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17 hours ago, elijah said:
30 / 30 / 20 = 80
25 / 10-15 / 20 = 55-60
10 / 10 / 15 = 35
10 / 15-20 / 15 = 40-45
20-30
250 - 3.04 gpg
If everyone doesn’t progress as we’d hope, if Skinner/Thompson have a down year, if Quinn/JJP don’t have the immediate impact expected, if Cozens doesn’t contribute more all of these totals could be even less than this.
You’re looking at 3.04 goals per game, which is still a below average offense, while also not having an answer for the goalie tandem yet. You’ve got to add another producer (or two) for a worst case scenario. You can’t just expect that everyone performs as you’d hope.
Granted, if everyone develops the way they’re expected then it will probably be more goals than this, and ideally much more. But why risk ‘as expected’ when you have the cap to have a backup plan for when one or two guys have a down year or don’t progress right?
Since this thread is about offense, that was the focus. You seem to believe that bringing in some veterans is NOT without the possibility they will under-perform. Adding players like ROR, Kane or Hall didn't put the Sabres over the playoff hump, so there's no guarantee your plan will work either.
Personally, I like what they're doing, building chemistry with the young talent they have, and I think this group is more than capable of scoring at a playoff level clip. That said, it's clear the #1 issue for next year is to address goal tending.
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1 minute ago, Norcal said:
I didn't say it
Currently 15th (alone) in the goal standings
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7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
These are fun to estimate and I do something like this every year to try to gauge potential.
I'd probably be more conservative for the first line with 80 goals (30, 30, 20). Tnt is shooting 15% and that typically isn't really sustainable.
I agree on the second line (25, 15, 20) with 60 goals
As to KO's line, I'm hoping for an upgrade at center, but 10, 10, 15 for 35 with 40 potential.
The "4th" is the real unknown. I think Krebs has 15 goals in him next season and possibly 20. I can also see Cozens getting 20 if he continues to improve (which he should). JJP is a complete unknown at this level. However if Derek Roy at 20 could put up 19 pts in 49 games as a rookie in 2003-4, JJP should be able to do that at the worst. Best case for this line is 50+ goals, worst case? probably 40 goals.
For the defense, I might even say 30 as a group. This year's group is at 26 (Dahlin 12), with zero from Samuelsson or Fitz and only 1 from Power so far. Add another top 4 D in the off-season and 30 might even be low.
I'd also add 10 goals for miscellaneous, usually from callups like Biro and Murray or the 13th forward.
I see 255-260 as a very realistic potential for this team next season. That would put us square in the playoff hunt, especially is we can lower the goals against as well.
Yes, that was what my attempt was about, to see how realistic it is for them to hit your goal total, and I also think it's very doable.
As for the top line, I think Tage has even more room to grow. He and Skinner are at 68 now, and I think they will hit at least 70 next year too. Looking forward to it.
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Seems reasonably doable with the projected group?
Skinner Tnt Tuch = 95-100
VO Mitts Quinn = 60-70
Z Asplund KO = 40
Krebs Cozens JJP = 45
D = 20-25
Total = 260-280 or 3.17 - 3.41 ppg
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9 hours ago, Zamboni said:
Recency bias:
a common distorting effect within systems of performance appraisal. It refers to the appraiser assessing employee performance, not on work undertaken across the full performance management cycle, but only on recent events or activities that can be readily recalled. Recency bias can be countered by keeping a record of appraisee performance over the full period of work that is being appraised.
😬
In sports, it should be known as "hyper" or "fanatical" recency bias.
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Certainly, it's a combination of things, but I think coaching tops the list. Every so often, I catch Granato's Tuesday morning sessions on WGR and he has mentioned several times how they work individually with each player on different aspects of their games. My interpretation of several related comments was that he expected their individual work to eventually translate to better overall team play--call it synergy or the "whole being greater than the sum of its parts" strategy. Most of the comments I'm referring to I heard months ago, so it appears the coaching is paying off.
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1 hour ago, klos1963 said:
So our goalies would be good enough if they just stayed healthy? Come on. No team wanted any of these goalies on their roster, just us. UPL is the only one that may have made in impact, but even that was asking a lot.
You misinterpreted that. 11 said "when it gets a good goalie." I simply added that he (the good goalie they get) needs to stay healthy too, given how many injuries Sabres goalies have experienced the past couple years.
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2 hours ago, Eleven said:
When it gets a goaltender who can stay healthy.
Fixed it for you.
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2 hours ago, Zamboni said:
Damn Hulu ESPN+ crap again 😡
I pay enough for friggin spectrum. i’m not paying even more for other streaming services on top of that. money sucking bastards.
Opposite problem for me. I recently dropped (money sucking) spectrum TV and went to Hulu LIve with ESPN+ package because I thought most of the games would be shown there, only to find they're blacked out locally. First game I'll get to see in a few weeks.
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6 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:
GMKA: "Hello Devon, this is Kevin Adams, sorry but we need to amend your travel itinerary to China. How does a quick trip to Phoenix, Denver and VEGAS sound to you?
An absolute "NO!" in response. The odds of him missing the Olympics due to injury are 100% as a Sabres goalie.
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In case anyone is interested, Amerks down 4-2 after 2; JJ with 2 assists.
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Asplund needs to make that pass quicker. He's been on my bad side for a while.
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13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:
Didn't like the Tuch, Tage, Skinner line. No chemistry there. I'm starting to wonder about a lot of Granato's combinations lately. Seems like he's just tossing into a blender to see what happens. Guess that's what a tank gets you.
Let's see if he goes back to Cozens on that line, given how well they played the other night?
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One impression to note, it seems to me that Asplund hasn't had a good game in over a month...?
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9 hours ago, pi2000 said:
Nah... Jack believed in the team too... he believed in the guys around him, he talked about Sam and Risto and Evander and the young guys in the pipeline (Asplund, MIttlestadt, etc..) taking this team to the playoffs down the road and he legitimately believed.
All young players coming in to a rebuild say this... across all sports. It's boilerplate.
This is probably a good take. I think Cozens is like a lot of talented R1 picks who are used to winning. It's not naivete, it's what we should expect from young guns.
I think the necessary ingredient is a winning culture that pervades the organization. It's not unlike what the Bills went through. How many coaches and GMs over the 17-year drought? All brought "hopium" when they arrived, but only one was able to drain the swamp in the organization and start over. McDermott and Beane also got rid of Non-process guys. I don't think Eichel, Rhino and Risto are non-process, but the organization needed to start fresh, and also keep a few holdover vets to help the young'uns along (Kyle O = Kyle W?).
It seems to me that Adams has tried to clean house and create a similar culture change, but I'm not familiar enough with the org itself, at least compared to the Bills. The source of toxicity of the Bills org was mostly Russ Brandon and somewhat Whaley. I don't think there was an equivalent in the Sabres org that made it dysfunctional--was there? It does appear that Adams has started anew by hiring his own people (like Karmanos).
So, in my limited view of the org, Cozens is like Tre White coming in and saying something similar, but it only matters if there is the culture to support it, as was established by McDermott and Beane. Is KA getting done?
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20 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:
This kid is coming in to his own. With his long reach I expect him to find the front of the net on the PP. a la Andreychuk style, he has the size.
But in the meantime, really liking his game this season.
Maybe it's his size, or the way he skates, or both, but it looks like he plays in 3rd gear, and has another one (or two) he can ratchet up to.
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Yes, good entertainment on the ice. Observations:
TT is getting so many good chances, his luck will change and he'll get on a nice scoring run.
At one point, I reflected on Donnie G's comments from the other night, that Dhalin will get to a point where the good things he does will outweigh the bad (or something like that). There was a "WTF is he doing?" moment when he put a pass between his legs from behind his own net and only UPL prevented a score. Despite that, it seemed he had another really strong game.
I admit, I thought MInny would win in OT, especially when it got to a shootout. Good for UPL getting the W.
I'm wondering if between the Sabres and Amerks, there's only one stopper to plug two holes? I hope those young'uns don't lose confidence.
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55 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:
Viking love!
Which is why I'd pick this song...
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6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
UPL was sharp. One mistake was the goal that snuck in on the short side.
Hagg had a terrible first period. Bryson wasn't so hot either.
Dahlin is skating better of late and playing with more confidence. Not surprised that that coincided with Joki as his partner again.
Stop the presses there has been Bjork sighting. I figure he got so open because even the WPG coaches and players forgot he was still in the NHL.
Thompson, VO and Skinner played an excellent game except the one shift where Wpg scored. Still a great job by TT getting back just before the goal.
I guess Robson belongs in the ECHL. 10 goal on 25 shots must be a world worst performance. Great news Amerks, Dell is coming.
I recall Butcher had a couple of giveaways too. Substitute Power and Samuelson for Hagg and Butcher, and their ability to compete takes a big jump.
Another person who I thought played a good game was Hinostroza. Early in the season, I was not impressed at all, but it could've been because I kept mixing him up with Caggiula.
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Related to this discussion, there's a Good piece in TheAthletic about Granato's plan, which is to focus on the offensive development of the players.
Quote“Giving up a lot of goals, the reflex is to get really conservative,” Granato said Tuesday. “I’m just not going to do it.”
Granato wants to win as much as anyone, but he refuses to change his long-term focus. This is not the Sabres’ year. It was never going to be.
“I said it when I took the job: If we try to play to 2-1 or 1-0, we’re going to be a very boring team and develop nobody,” Granato said at KeyBank Center. “I don’t want guys that are conservative. I want guys that ride the edge, and with that, you’ve got to have confidence because you’re going to take hits. It’s going to bring attention to what you really need to pay attention to — some details.
“I’m not throwing defense out, by any means. I demand it, and I’m fine winning a game 1-0, but not at the sacrifice of developing.”
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2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:
History Repeats Itself: The Canes are 10-0-0 in their last ten meetings with Buffalo, marking the third-longest active win streak for a team against any opponent in the league.
Ahhh, history. I seem to recall reading not too long ago the Sabres hadn't won a game against the Lightning since November 13, 2018.
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1 hour ago, inkman said:
I honestly feel none of this. I’m enjoying the ride with the kids. I know most games will end in falter due to bad goaltending and inexperienced players. Seeing Tage, Dylan, Victor and now Casey all ascend their games now that they aren’t being stifled by a coach stuck in the 90s is refreshing.
We know what the issues are. Get the kids some experience and goaltending and watch this team soar.
My sentiments exactly. I don't expect much from the goal tending and overall D (though they looked much better for about 1.5 periods last game). I know it's not kosher, but I'm hoping for a top 5 pick. If they can average about 3 gpg along the way, I'll be entertained; especially if the 4 you mention get 20+ each (well, at least the pace would be 20+ for Mitts).
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1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:
I know a lot of people will say this is a 'losers' mentality, but if they start Dell in net and lose, but it isn't a blow-out and it is entertaining with the Sabres putting in at least 3-4 goals, I'll be OK with that. With this team I WANT them to win, but this season is not about W's and L's for me, it is about seeing progress I can be excited for and, quite simply, being entertained with goals.
I agree with all of what you said after the first comma...I'd say it's just being realistic that he's not as good as Toke.
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8 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:
This might be a tough one. Detroit is getting better. Sabres on the 2nd half of a back-to-back with travel. Detroit plays really well at home this year. I expect a loss, but hopefully will be proven wrong...and at least expect to be entertained with some Sabres goals.
And, to add to that belief, Dell is most likely in goal tonight, yes?
GDT: 4/23/22 NY Islanders at Buffalo, 12:30pm MSG, ESPN+, WGR
in The Aud Club
Posted
Skinner-Tage combo now at 70 goals