[Where Does Risto End Up?]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. "If we trade Risto, the other D may not be able to provide adequate 2nd pair play". 

Risto doesn't provide adequate second pair play. 

He’s never played them. You can’t say that. Statistics have no data on him in that role—- they don’t describe how he would do there. 

[2019-2020 Lineup]

38 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Ceci was a necessary “cap dump” to facilitate the moving of Zaitsev. 

And the conspiracy theorist in me believes he was acquired with the knowledge that Babcock would play him too much, thereby clearing the path for Keefe to replace Babs behind the bench. 

 

They didn’t have to sign Ceci though. They did

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

Laine and Hoffman are power play specialists who we don’t need.  With all the new defenders we have, there’s a good chance we won’t even be able to keep whatever forward we acquire from a Risto trade in the expansion draft. Only getting a couple years out of the target is all you should expect. 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

OK, who does Laine for Risto?

Would you add? How much?

Laine wants a short contract taking him right to UFA. This kills his value. You only add something desirable, but small like Rodrigues or picks going back. 

 

I think it’s be funny if it was Ristolainen+Thompson for Laine. Analytics people hate Laine more than they hate Thompson

[New club: Hockey Statistics -- Reference and Discussion]

4 hours ago, ... said:

Pulled from another thread, background info on the RAPM charts.

This describes the RAPM charts in detail: https://hockey-graphs.com/2019/01/14/reviving-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-for-hockey/ 

One concern, and argument against the RAPM charts, is the effect of line-mates.  This effect is built into the equations.

A summary of what we're NOT looking at, in general, with these charts:

And, addressing another concern, TOI:

 

 

Need to be clear:  The correction factor ***attempts*** to account for teammate effects, but by no means can it completely do so. It also has no ability to distinguish chemistry with one player va no chemistry vs another. When players have very few linemates, the model will fail them to some degree. 

[2019 Off Season]

51 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Nylander trade further complicated matters

We now have 13 D who played in the NHL last season for 8 slots.  2 of the 13 will certainly start the year on IR and I think there is a good possibility that Bogo stays on the IR all season.  This list includes guys like Borgen who will probably be returned to the AHL.  

We also have, after the acquisitions of Johansson and Vesey, 14 Forwards who played primarily in the NHL last season plus Olofsson, CJ Smith, Lazar and Elie with the former 2 having a real shot at making the NHL next season and Lazar who has an outside shot.  In addition we have Routsalainen who goes back to Finland if he doesn’t make the Sabres.

That’s 28 skaters competing for 21 jobs. 

The defense is relatively easy to solve.  Borgen gets returned to the AHL.  Pilut and Bogo start the year on IR (Pilut on the AHL IR) and that leaves a battle between Gilmour, Scandella and Hunwick for the 3rd and 4th LHD slot.  (I predict Hunwick loses the battle and ends up traded or in the AHL).  Montour, Miller and Nelson hold 3 of the 4 RHD slots.  The question is whether or not Risto gets traded.  If so, Jokiharju makes the team as RHD 3 (Nelson RHD4).  If not Jokiharju gets sent down and Risto is RHD2, Miller RHD 3 and Nelson RHD4.

 With the forwards we have 18 guys currently competing for 13 jobs.  To make things more complicated of the 18 forwards, 9 are generally considered LWs with Skinner and Johansson the best of the group.  Of the centers, only Eichel (1st line) and Larsson (4th line) are good in their roles.  Mitts is still a raw commodity and Erod is more utility forward then center.  Routsalainen and Lazar are unknown quantities.  We also only have 3 RWs in Reinhart, KO and Thompson, and only Reinhart should be playing in a top 6 role.  Admittedly Erod, Sobotka, and Johansson with varying degrees of success and Olofsson, Sheary and Vesey can play either wing creating a great deal of flexibility on the positive side and confusion on the negative. 

What a mess.  This could get worse if Risto is traded straight up for a forward. 2C would be the preference.  However, the teams losing a center would probably want Risto and a roster forward (Sheary or Erod make the most sense) to complete the trade which would help both cap and line puzzle wise.

 Good luck Jbot.

I wouldn't call it a mess when there isn't a player who would have to pass through waivers that anyone would mind actually losing, or have value any higher than a 3rd rounder.  That's just healthy competition, with no externalities forcing him to make a decision beyond what's shown on the ice.

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

17 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

We might be talking past each other. I don't think you're drawing the proper inference from what the authors are saying with respect to how it would apply to Casey's numbers and my comment about using a 68 minute subsample to evaluate him, or you're misinterpreting what I was getting at. The Sedins have a ton of error when trying to isolate because they spend 90% of their ice time together, so there isn't enough time apart to do the work with any accuracy. That all makes sense, but it's not what I was arguing about.

You presented a 68 minute subsample of Casey's career under the pretense that it was a better representation of his on-ice impact than the full sample, because the full sample includes so much time with Okposo that he's statistically indistinguishable from Okposo. I disagree with that because, as others have noted, the majority of his ice time has come with players not named Okposo. So I don't think that introduced the same collinearity problem of the Sedins. It's also worth noting that about 30% of his ice time in 2017-18 was spent with Okposo. Or, only about 7 points less than in 2018-19. If the model screwed him because of his time with Okposo, one would think it would've happened both seasons. 

 Which brings me to my larger point, which I was trying to argue in the first place. Mittelstadt has 952 minutes of ice time at even strength. You're trying to draw conclusions with 7.1% of that, while chucking the rest of the data because of Okposo, when Okposo was relevant to less than 40% of it (a huge difference from the Sedins' 90%+ shared ice time). That's weak, both statistically and theoretically. There is no way you're going to statistically distinguish that small of a subsample from the rest of his ice time with any confidence that the difference in results was anything other than happenstance. 

Okposo+Thompson, similar drags

 

The collinearity tries to correct for individual players, but it obviously can't without data outside of it.  The lowest errors for all these models happens for players who played for multiple teams.  When looking at a teenage prospect who has had limited opportunities, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt.  When you have Mittelstadt with less than 200 minutes with a replacement level player, it doesn't matter if there's 900+ minutes of data on it, he's never had a chance to do anything but be dragged.

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

3 minutes ago, ... said:

Are you saying Casey spent 92% of his time with Okposo and TT 92% of his time with Sobotka?  

Since the league is littered with pairs, are you arguing the fancy stats aren't built to account for the effect one might have on the other within a normal context?

The highest errors in the model come when percentages are above 60% for players with >700 minutes.

 

 

And yes, quite literally, the author of these fancy stats states:

 

Quote

By not including interaction terms in the model, we do not account for interactions between players. Chemistry between two particular teammates, for example, is ignored in the model. The inclusion of interaction terms could reduce the errors. The disadvantages of this type of regression would be that it is much more computationally intensive, and the results would be harder to interpret.

 

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

18 minutes ago, ... said:

Explain the significance of the difference between 68 minutes TOI versus 884 minutes TOI.  I'll hang up and listen.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1006.4310.pdf

 

Pages 34-37

A snippet:  

Quote

In the introduction, and elsewhere in this paper, we noted that Henrik and Daniel Sedin have a much higher error than other players with a similar number of shifts.

One reason for this high error could be that the twin brothers spend most of their time on the ice together. Daniel spent 92% of his playing time with Henrik, the highest percentage of any other player combination where both players have played over 700 minutes. Because of this high colinearity between the twins, it is difficult to separate the individual effect that each player has on the net goals scored on the ice. It seems as though the model is giving Henrik the bulk of the credit for the offensive contributions, and Daniel most of the credit for defense. Henrik’s defensive rating is strangely low given his low goals against while on the ice. Likewise, Daniel’s offensive rating is unusually low.

i.e., when a player spends the majority of his time with another skater, the player's stats become indistinguishable from each other.

 

Casey spent all year with Okposo and in limited time with Thompson, and Thompson otherwise spent his year with Sobotka outside a few games.  As a result, their charts are going to mimic those players to a large degree, a digression explicity noted by the creator of the statistics.

 

The terms in the regression are built off of a massive dataset, so the error by smaller minutes played put into the model is relatively low.

13 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It's not a narrative that Casey was bad this reason. It's just the harsh reality. As to the charts...a regression with a sample of 68 minutes, such as the one you just posted, is almost certainly useless. I can't be 100% sure without seeing the full model, but I'd bet my life savings that such a model has a p-value around 3 million and a confidence interval that includes the entire range of outcomes. 

If this is what you think, then you really have no clue how this model was created.  Read the links above.

 

 

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

 

Sorry, WildCard. I hope you're sitting down. 

Casey stuck with Okposo all year sucked, surprise!

 

Casey in his 6 game stint the year prior, not saddled with idiots:

 

 

People like you really undermine the usefulness of these charts when you take everything in poor context and post stats just to prove a narrative.

 

 

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Did you ignore the chart from my previous post showing Thompson also sucked in St. Louis? 

You mean, where he also played with Sobotka and Berglund, lol?

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

25 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

That's not entirely true. He had a chance with better players and immediately pooped his pants. But this gets back to my question about comparing to other players. Know who else was saddled? Much-maligned Zemgus Girgensons. Know who played considerably better than Thompson? You guessed it, big Z! 

 

Edit: NHL hockey players don't have to be good at everything, but they have to be good at something. Tage is bad at everything. 

Girgensons never played with Sobotka.  You aren't factoring in the Off_GF Off_xG Off_CF black hole that Sobotka had on everyone he blessed his minutes with.  The guy refused to sustain a forecheck and gave up the offensive zone before his teammates would even lose possession.

 

 

I get that stats can help tell a story, but they aren't some slam poetry with great applause.  Thompson was put in bad situation after bad situation and I think some people should calm down on him.  He tore up the AHL after being sent down the second time in Stl, and in Buffalo.  Yes, he had his brain farts, but they don't completely describe him.  He has a very active pokecheck and an elite shot, and deployed properly can be a serviceable player.  Paired with Sobotka, he had none of that.

[Where Does Risto End Up?]

Risto+McCabe+Smith or Rodrigues+pick (~7.5AAV) for Ehlers+Lowry (8.9AAV)

 

Jets need to shed some cap, especially long-term, which is why Ehlers goes cheap.  I believe the Jets want to dump Kulikov, but I bet we are on his 6-team no trade list after the whole door incident.  They would prefer to keep their youth over their guys under contract (Ehlers & Lowry).  They also value McCabe highly because he is still RFA, and they have very few defenders currently under long-term control.  I think they'd demand a cheap forward back if trading two forwards out.

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

21 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Which, I may say, is considerably more than you have done for your side of the argument. Yes, Thompson's shot is hard...but unlike in real life, weapons of mass destruction in the NHL have to hit their target to matter. Alexei Zhitnik's point shot had a considerably better hit rate than Tage's one timers. Tage's top speed is fine, but he isn't quick, and his edge work is deplorable. 

In their short time in the NHL, both this season and the one before, Nylander has shown more. That's not to say he's shown a lot, but Thompson has legitimately been closer to washed-up Sobotka bad than a promising young player. 

Seriously, Thompson has been all-caps BAD:

I've posted this before, but it's worth re-posting to emphasize how bad Thompson has been as an NHL player, both here and in St. Louis. 

Honest question: would it be helpful to frame it as Thompson vs NHL players rather than Thompson vs Nylander? I really don't care if anyone questions Nylander, but nobody should think Thompson has been anything other than a disaster as an NHL player. 

Tage has also always played with anchor teammates.  He only had a couple shifts on a line without a Sobotka, 4th line, etc, scenario.

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

3 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

Look how Dylan Strome turned his career around when traded to Chicago. Might be expecting more lightening in a bottle.

Nylander will probably do better than he would have in Buffalo getting to play with Kane and Toews.  Buffalo doesn’t have those kinds of players for him to play with though. Buffalo has a fragile locker room and doesn’t need yet another kid who struggles with motivation. Botterill obviously is obsessed with character and wants none of that. 

[Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors]

So what was that Risto to Florida rumor again?

 

Risto+McCabe+Erod for Huberdeau+Hoffman?  I didn’t want to give up on Erod, but with the new depth I could make do if that’s what it took to land Huberdeau. 

[2019-2020 Lineup]

Dahlin-Risto

Pilut-Montour

McCabe-Miller

Scandella-Bogosian

Hunwick-Nelson

Hickey-Jokiharju

Bryson-Borgen

x-Johnson

x-Samuelsson

x-Laaksonen

 x-Fitzgerald

 

 

ok.... what's going to give?  We're overcompensating on defensive depth here a wee bit..

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

Just now, WildCard said:

When/where did you see this? Curious if they thought that high of Jokiharju

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/will-jokiharju-start-the-year-in-rockford.2662329/

[Sabres Trade Alex Nylander to Chicago for D Man Henri Jokiharju]

All the Chicago fans wanted to trade him for William... they're going to be so disappointed when he brings back only Alex..

[Sabres Signing Marcus Johansson 2 years 4.5 Million AAV]

Krueger is known for his unorthodox, yet top performing PP. 

[Any interest in the remaining UFA centers?]

1 hour ago, Eddiegoofball said:

With the arbitrations pending, do the Sabres even have any cap room left?

no, they don't

[Zemgus Signs One Year Deal]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

I think you are looking at the wrong side.  The left side is teammates.  Right side is opponents.

So the small slivers on the left side 1-3 are Jack, Sam, and Jeff.  On the right side 1-3 the bars are past the red line, which means that he spent a higher than average percentage of his ice time against the opponents 1st line.

Thanks, I indeed was reading it backwards.

[2019-2020 Lineup]

Given the interview responses, I feel like it's more likely that Johansson ends up playing center.  Whether Mittelstadt or Johansson get more minutes (being the true 2nd or 3rd line) will just depend on how they play, but I expect a much improved Mittelstadt and for that line to get sheltered the most anyway:

 

Skinner-Eichel-Rodrigues/Thompson/Nylander

Sheary-Mittelstadt-Reinhart

Smith/Oloffson/Rodrigues/Nylander-Johansson-Vesey

Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo

 

I think any combination of LW/RW really works in this Top-9, except that Reinhart needs to be kept away from Eichel.

 

One thing to keep in mind about Krueger:  He will keep lines together to a fault, as he believes as certain pairings face adversity they learn together.  Different philosophy as our last few coach's.  I'm not sure how far into the season it will be until he settles on his lines though.

[Zemgus Signs One Year Deal]

2 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I don't think the season averages suggest it was demonstrably false.  I have provided a number of other examples besides that of Zemgus to illustrate what a First line (Skinner), Third line (Bozak) and Fourth line (Barbashev) forward look like. Compare and contrast as you will.    To me this suggests exactly what Dudacek commented on, which is a higher than expected ice-time against 1&2 forwards, and #1 D man, due to the number of excessive Defensive zone starts.  However, he had more ice-time than League average against 10-12 forwards and 5/6 Defense (aka 4th line players).   Considering that the last third of the season or more he was playing primarily third line minutes (with Casey, Tage, KO, Wilson, et al playing 4th line) he should have had more ice-time against 4-9 Forwards, but did not.  I'm sure that St. Louis overused ROR in their Defensive zone face-offs so a guy like Barbashev saw slightly less than the League average against 1-3 Forwards.  Barbashev was almost exclusively a 4th line player (when looking at his teammates % of icetime).   Gus on the other hand was more of a bottom six as far as his % icetime with teammates (exceeding League average  with 7-12 forwards).   A third line guy like Bozak (which again was what Gus played for part of the season) played almost all his time against 4-9.  Below league average against 1-3, but also below against 10-12.    I think there was certainly something to the line of Zemgus/Bergland/Larsson early in the season, but that play did not continue in 2019 nor during the losing streak.  I don't think the comment about playing only 4th line players is accurate, nor is it completely false.   The truth is somewhere between this.  I think he was compensated fairly as a  9-11 Forward on an improving team.  I also approve of the term.  

 

Interesting graphs. I agree with your logic and assessment, but I  just struggle with them as they really conflict with the eye test for me.  There’s too many minutes of Girgensons/Larsson cycling in the o zone against Bergeron and Marchand last year for me to see such a small sliver in the 1-3.

[Who Are the 2C and 3C Candidates Internal and External?]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How are you going to pay him?  We only have 6.65 mill left and only 20 players signed with RFAs McCabe, Ullmark and Erod.  We also need operating cap room and Dahlin's year end bonus.  If someone else wanted Sheary or Bogo or Scandella, they'd have been moved already.

6.65 for McCabe, Ullmark, Rodrigues, and Larsson

 

2

1.5

1

2

=6.5

Roster size of 24, minus 1 million for whoever is demoted and there’s the wiggle room. Dahlin’s bonuses can be carried over into next year worst case, when a lot of cap will open up, but I wouldn’t worry much with all the LTIR going on.

 

What I was hoping for was a trade involving Risto to either Winnepeg or Tampa, depending on who Montreal offer sheets, to help them fill in their gap at defense while taking back some salary on a forward like Ehlers or Gourde in return. I don’t see how we have the room to do anything like that now with Johansson, but there’s still some cap magic possible (Bogo straight to IR, buyouts, etc)