GASabresIUFAN

That means, for example, if we’ve had 500 HDCF we have allowed 600 HDCA. With a 45.9% high danger chances we basically allow 54 HDCA for every 46 HDCF. Despite these terrible stats we still have a positive EV differential. Just think what improvements in goal and on defense would do for this team.

If you think the stat gf% is a whole team stats, why do you only blame the forwards? I think you need top look beyond that one stat and I think you'll get a clearer picture where the issues lie. The Sabres are -159 in scoring chances for (47.7% SCF) and -100 in high danger scoring chances (45.9%) for the season. The goaltending has a 910 save percentage 5 on 5 vs a league AVERAGE of .918. The goalies save % overall is .880 vs a league average of .894. If we got just average goaltending, we'd have allowed 30+ less goals this season (I estimate 20 less 5 on 5). What would our GF% be then if we allowed 20 less goals 5 on 5? We'd move from our current +8 to +28. In fact, if we allowed just 20 less goals 5 on 5 for the season by getting average goaltending, we'd have a +positive differential and likely be in the playoffs. Now where would be if our defense could help minimize SCA and HDCA for a change?

Dude, what are you even talking about? You do realize that gf% is a stat that looks at 5 on 5 gf vs ga? That means that bad goaltending and bad defense are an integral part of our "13th" place. It's not just the forwards. The forwards are doing their part 5 on 5 and scoring. They are 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 scoring with 179. They are also making an effort on the defensive end. Tuch leads all NHL forwards in blocked shots with 107. Tuch and Malenstyn are in the top 10 in blocks per 60 of all NHL forwards. Clifton is our only D in the top 50 in blocked shots per 60. For us to be only 13th 5 on 5 in GF%, but 3rd in 5 on 5 goals, our defense and goaltending have to be terrible. You even admit our goaltending is terrible. Where would be with the same offense, but better goaltending and defenders? Top 5 in GF% most likely and in the playoffs. By the way, no one is saying don't mess with the forwards, not even me. I have our GM taking offers for Norris and Quinn in my first plan on this thread. However the priority to fix this team is fixing the crap goalies and crap defenders.

I agree actually, I was just showing a way to add Marner and Pettersson while also trying to improve the defensive skill of the D and improve the goaltending. It was hard to do and I had to move out Norris, Power, Zucker and Greenway to get it done. As I wrote in the start of the that post "here is a possible (unlikely) go for it roster."

You are probably right, but Cody Ceci would probably work as well for an amount around what I suggested.

For all those here who believe Marner would consider joining the Sabres, here is a possible (but unlikely) go for it roster that is cap compliant 1) Sign Marner 7 years @ 13.5 2) Trade UPL, Norris and other assets for Demko and Pettersson. Re-sign Demko for 5 x 5 3) Trade Power for Marino (M-NTC) and other assets 4) Trade Zucker, Quinn, Lafferty and Clifton for assets. (It’s possible assets acquired in these deals would replace Orlov and/or Brannstrom) 5) Sign Dimitry Orlov for 3x 3.3 6) re-sign McLeod 3x 4.5, JJP 5 x 6.5, Levi 2 x 1.25, JBD 2 x 1.25, Brannstrom 1 x 1, and Kozak 1 x 900K 7) sign a depth forward (or acquire one in a step 4 trade @900k). 8.) Buyout Samuelsson if we can’t trade him. 9.) lastly to make this work we need to trade Greenway for a forward @ around 2.5 mill a season or less. The issue is Greenway was given a M-NTC. Roster Marner TNT Benson JJP Pettersson Tuch Kulich McLeod Greenway replacement Krebs Kozak Malenstyn (depth FA) Dahlin Marino Byram Orlov Brannstrom JCB (Bryson) Demko Levi The cap cost with Skinner’s and Samuelsson buyouts would be 95.6 million. The defense after the top 2 pairs is suspect, but with Novikov and Komarov in the minors I’m ok with risking it. Also Östlund is a prospect I’m not including in any deals because I need him for depth.

Rantanan signed with Dallas for $12 per season. Factor in taxes and palm trees and I think the deal will be about 12 (no income tax states TN, TX, & FL) to 13.5 for a NY, NJ, California or Canadian team).

That’s the issue with signing Marner even if he’d come here. It’s nearly impossible to make the money work when also trying to fix holes in the rest of the roster.

Certainly no GM and agent talk before free agency happens. That would be tampering and we all know that’s not allowed. 😛 On a serious note, Marner’s agent is Darren Ferris, who is known for putting his clients into the open market.

A very different roster. Olofsson, Mitts, Skinner, KO, Girgensons, Jost, and Cozens are all gone from that roster. They have been replaced by Benson, Malenstyn, Norris, McLeod, Kulich and Zucker. Joki has also been replaced by Bernard-Docker, Lyubushkin with Clifton and Bryson was demoted from top 6 to extra to make room essentially for Byram. The teams just aren't the same and the forward group is much better defensively. As to Marner, he may be literally "available" but his agent isn't taking or returning Adams' calls. I find it funny that anyone actually thinks he might come here.

I'm right there with you brother, but I guess the main point of contention between us is I believe that fixing the coaching, defense and goaltending this off-season gets us to the playoffs next Spring. I am open to changes in the forwards, as I wrote in my plan post, especially involving Norris and Quinn. My thought on the forwards is that anyone brought in has to bring a skill set we lack or don't have enough of. For example playmakers or physical players. Norris for Pettersson as the key players in a deal works for me. Finding an upgrade for Greenway for the 3rd line works for me as well. If I can keep Greenway to bolster my 4th line all the better. These deals just aren't my focus this off-season when we have disasters on defense and in goal that need to be addressed.

I understand why people here think the forward group isn't reliable defensively and this was exceedingly true in the first half of this season, but I'm not sure that's the case any longer. Dumping Cozens was a huge step in the right direction. They aren't "good" as a entire group, but they are ok. Tuch, McLeod, Benson, Greenway, and Malenstyn are all good defensively. Norris, when available is also good. TNT is vastly improved and it's helped reignite his offense. Krebs is adequate and Kulich is decent and improving. Zucker has shown here much better two way play then I remember him on other teams. JJP isn't good, but has been making an effort and isn't Skinner bad. I'd argue that only JJP and Zucker are below average as defensive forwards. Kozak, assuming he makes the team next year, is good defensively. I'm sorry, but I no longer see this as a major issue for this team moving forward. The Tuch, Greenway, Malenstyn, Norris and McLeod acquisitions helped in this area, as have the additions of Kozak, Benson and Kulich from the minors plus improvements from Krebs. I think the Sabres have 6-7 decent to good defensive forwards to throw at end of game situations and that's plenty. Also Östlund is good defensively and near NHL ready if we have to call someone up from the minors.

I guess I'll answer this post with an analogy. Why haven't the Leafs, with all their fire power, won a Cup? I trace it back to their signing of Tavares. They were desperate for defense and goaltending like we are now, but instead spent their limited cap space on Tavares. Only now have they finally found some goaltending and defense (still not enough) in Tavares' final year. That contract not only cost them help on defense and in goal, but also cost them Hyman and Kadri who were heart and soul players their roster also needed. Marner is not a realistic option for the Sabres. He won't come here. However, let's say for arguments sake he would sign here. How do we reasonable fit his $15 mill salary under our cap while also fixing the defense and goaltending? Toronto couldn't do it while trying to retain their good young players after they signed Tavares and I don't think we can either.

Also Norris and Tuch assuming they are on the roster.

Not at all. I open to any idea that improves the team, but adding guys like Marner, Tavares and Ekblad is the definition of video game because they won't realistically sign here. I'm fine with our idea of Pettersson and Demko for Tuch and Norris as that is a deal that could happen and it would give us a legit No .1 center and playmaker and it's an upgrade in goal. I love @LGR4GM idea of signing Gavikov. He'll be in demand also, but it something that $ might swing a deal to get him here, especially with all the young Russians in our organization. I'm not fine with dumping a good young player for a declining vet on a long-term contract. You gave ideas where we trade JJP or Kulich, while also giving an idea to acquire Cuylie. Cuylie is only 3 weeks younger than JJP and not nearly as productive. Cuylie 23/24 81 gms 13g 8a 21 pts 24/25 78gms 18g 22a 40 pts (turned 23 Feb 4th) JJP 23/24 82 gms 28g 22a 50 pts 24/25 72 gms 24g 38a 62 pts (turned 23 Jan 14) Also Cuylie's rookie season as 21/22 years old looks nearly identical as Kulich's 20 year old rookie season so far of 14g 8a in 57 games (He turns 21 on April 14th), except Kulich accomplished it younger and in less games.

I also never said that Adams would keep those forwards. I think any GM would keep those forwards given our cap situation and their on ice performance. Gm's don't trade away 60+ point 23 year old forwards like Peterka. GM's don't move 19 & 20 year old forwards like Kulich and Benson on ELCs when they've proven they can play in the NHL. Most of your examples also don't make sense under the cap. You want to trade Kulich for RNH who is 31 has declining production and has another 4 years at 5.125 per season? He is also now exclusively a RW, not a center. You want to move a young forward for RNH, ok what about Rosen and something for him? However where does RNH play? Didn't signing and re-signing Zucker accomplish the same thing and for less $ RNH 31 - 76gms 20g 29a - cap 4 years 5.125 Zucker 33 - 68 gms 21g 30a - cap 2 years 4.75 You most intriguing idea is Tuch & Norris for Petterson and Demko. You are trading 13 mill in liability for 16+, but Demko only has 1 year left on his deal @ 5 mill. To make this deal work, you'd have to get Demko signed to an extension. I like the idea of Petterson feeding TNT and I agree that Demko is an upgrade over UPL for similar money. I'd hate to lose Tuch, but if I were the GM, I'd listen to this idea. It still doesn't fix the alleged "center" problem for the Sabres. You want to sign Tavares. Ok he's 34 still productive, but why would I a guy desperate for a Cup sign here at 34? Also why would Marner sign here? I'd love to bring Sam Bennett in, but again why would he sign here, what is the term and $. He will be one of the most in demand UFAs. I also don't think we have to move young rostered forwards to fix the defense. You retool the defense by buying out Samuelsson, trading Power or Byram for a stay at home D and other assets. You then sign a FA stay at home D or acquire one in trade using those other assets and maybe some prospects. Your idea of moving Byram for Andersson doesn't really accomplish anything. Andersson is a 28 year old version of Byram and isn't good defensively either. He's just another puck mover but R shot. How does that improve an area of problem for this roster? If we can get a stay at home D for Quinn, I would listen to that as well, as I now consider Quinn our 10th top 9 forward.

Why would Marner come here? Why would Ekblad? Neither of those are realistic options for this team. A generality of "doing everything" you can to make the playoffs is great. Now show us how you'd do it in a cap system with 23 players under contract or control. If you don't like my keep most of the current forwards, who are you trading and for whom? My point about the forwards, is that, other than Norris, most are on fair and reasonable deals or ELCs. We are getting value for their production and they are producing. You keep saying we don't have enough 2 way players, except we do have a bunch of guys who are good two-way or defensive forwards including Greenway, McLeod, Tuch, Malenstyn, Benson, Kozak and Kulich. Krebs and TNT are improving in this area and even Zucker gives effort to get back. I'm sorry, after watching this team all season, I think that argument is losing it's support. Norris is also a solid two way forward when healthy and is excellent in the FO circle, giving us two guys capable of winning draws consistently on the PP and PK with McLeod. Could they be better? Sure, but that isn't the problem with this franchise. The area where we aren't getting positive contract value is on defense. Samuelsson and Power's deals are a huge drag on our cap space. Even Clifton's deal is under water for what he produces. Now add that everyone outside of Dahlin is positionally terrible, and the weight of issues with this team is on the defense. Talk about fixing the forwards all you want, but until the defense is actually capable of playing defense, no changes upfront are going to elevate this team.

You keep saying overhaul the whole team, yet you don't offer any specifics. So for the 18th time, what's your plan? ? Lose? his center spot to Krebs?

Ok which forward are you punting for this mythical "fix" at forward? Zucker and Greenway were just re-signed. They aren't being traded. TNT and Tuch are our best forwards and are on team friendly deals. They aren't being traded. McLeod has had a breakout season and is our best defensive forward. He'll be re-signed. JJP is our best young forward and is a legit top 6 forward. He'll be re-signed. Benson and Kulich are our best young forwards after JJP, they play the right way, play two way hockey and are improving with every game. They aren't being traded. That's 8 forwards who aren't going anywhere. Norris was just acquired and Kozak is solidifying himself as the 4th line center. So I ask again, what move are you making to improve this group? They are 3rd in NHL in EV goals for. Tell us your fix!

I agree wholehearted. Read my plan. I want Adams gone and I want a complete overhaul of the defense. I honestly think we are stuck with UPL next season, but a better defense should yield better results on the PK and GA in general.

It would with better defense and goaltending.

Not every player on a first line in the NHL is a 30 goal scorer or pt a game player. 51 pts right now is a top 96 scorer in the NHL, that's about .69 pts per game. That player is Chandler Stephenson (who has 51 pts in 75 games) and he never had more than 38 points in the AHL. So if Kulich is able to produce at a similar level in the NHL, then yes he would be an 1st line player. I also think Kulich will be a better player in the NHL than Stephenson for example. Kulich and Benson also bring a significant amount of forechecking and back checking effort. Their skill set seems to really compliment TNT. I also think your getting hung up on 1st line vs 2nd line vs 3rd line. Ideally the Sabres top 3 lines all are able to score at a good level. Zucker, for example, is in the top 96 scorers in the NHL and he is not exactly a top line player. Right now we have a 40 goal scorer on the "1st" line, a 34 and 24 goal scorers on the "2nd" line and a 21 & 19 goal scorers on the "3rd line." That's a pretty balanced attack. The Sabres are also 3rd in 5 on 5 scoring and 3rd in all EV situations. Something is working on the offense.

This is a very misleading statement and needs some serious context. His 46 points came in only 62 game (.74 pts per game) and his 45 the next season came in only 57 games (.79 pts per game) He also had 48 pts in 35 games as a U16. His draft year (2022) he had 37 points in 32 games in international competitions.

That's the current alignment, so yes! I didn't say it was ideal, but it is working right now. I also wrote that if I can get a playmaking top 6 center for Norris, I'd make the deal.

^ has been the organization’s philosophy for 14 years. How has that worked so far? Samuelsson needs to move on.