Georgia Blizzard
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Posts posted by Georgia Blizzard
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I respectfully disagree.
Happy Birthday, by the way.
Thanks for noticing !
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This is a no brainer.
His system isn't working and I don't see him changing.
I have ZERO concern about superstar in making (Eichel) pushing coach out, worked fine for Magic and MJ in NBA, and, in the end, we didn't tank to get DD.
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I feel like we're in a Seinfeld episode here.
If you make $1000 in one business and lose $400 in another business, you can, in certain circumstances, write off the $400 loss against the $1000 profit and thereby pay tax on the net of $600 -- so you end up with about $350.
But if, instead of losing $400 in the 2nd business, you break even, there is no writeoff and you pay tax on the full $1000 -- so you end up with about $600.
So although in the $400 loss scenario you are better off having the benefit of the writeoff than not having it, you are still substantially better off in the break-even scenario.
What specifically are you suggesting as regards political capital?
Equity is the long view, or long-term return. He doesn't plan to sell the team and has stated it will be turned over to his daughter. I am sure that tradition will continue long after I've left this world.
The write offs are not less than 70%. Those losses tie in to a multi-billion dollar company, PS&E which is the parent company of both the Sabres and Bills. As such those tax write offs become substantially more valuable at the parent corporation level on both the state and federal level. For example, I'm aware of a 650 million dollar corporation that got to write off 88% of a 102 million dollar capitol loss.
Political capitol is the ability to effectively move future endeavors forward with an ease not met by other entities. If you believe it does not exist, and I'm not saying you do, but if that is the case, I know first hand that it does exist.
As for pointing out the expanded fan base, many Buffalo expats become successful in other parts of the nation, but the inclusion of them was to point out areas such ad south and central Florida or Phoenix hold decent size expats that still spend on the team for merchandise.
I didn't state he was planning on turning the Sabres in to a cash cow. What I did say was the expenditures being touted aren't always as large as they appear.
Said another way
If you lose $400M, and you "write it off", you still are out $400M less the tax savings, which, in U.S. is 35%.
So, $400M loss becomes a $260M CASH loss
Either way, NOT GOOD !!
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I'm expecting a ho hum day for Sabres
We have a crappy defense, so, what do we really think GMTM can get for Kulikov (a 3rd ?), Franson (a 4th?)
No way he trades Kane or Gionta
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Please put Sam at center on the third line.
I will watch the game with great intensity with the hope of a brighter future.
+1
For balance of season, I want centers to beEichel-ROR-Reinhart-Girgensons
Swap wingers around if you want, but would like to see DB stop around with Reinhart
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post-deadline, after team admits this is not a playoff year, Reinhart should center 3rd line and populate the wings with Rochester talent (Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste and maybe give Fasching a look)
If our top 3 centers were Eichel - ROR - Reinhart -- that would definitely be SC contending quality
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Some stats courtesy of nhl.com flexible search feature:
Since Eichel came back (11/29/2017):
Eichel is 23rd in points
Kane is 2nd in goals
Sabres are 11th in points
Sabres are 11th in goals scored
Since 1/1/2017:
Sabres are 4th in points and 7th in goals
Lehner is 3rd in save percentage (starters)
These blew my mind, all I here is doom and gloom from friends and family -- WOW
Things are looking up
GMTM's trade for Kane AND Lehner both look good
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I have question for you hockey system experts . . .
It seems, when Sabres trail (3rd period comebacks) or they are "on" (Toronto 1st period), they are playing a pressing, uptempo, high speed style -- is that DB's system played well or are they abandoning the system and playing outside it ?
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The players will know regardless. Capfriendly has a really good expansion tool.
By the way, after using the above referenced tool, I'm changing my opinion on the trade Kane now approach. I now think Kane gets moved this summer for Cam Fowler.
Here is why.
I have been advocating the Kane to Ana deal for months, but after I looked at the expansion tool on Capfriendly, I have no idea how Ana makes a deal for Kane or any other player who isn't a UFA at year's end at the deadline. Besides all their cap issues, they have a huge expansion issue. Right now Ana must protect Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, and Bieksa because of no movement clauses. They also just extended Lindholm, Rakell and Vatanen and will protect them as well. That's 7 slots gone. If they don't move Cam Fowler now or soon after the season, then they stuck doing the 8-1 expansion. That means they lose Silverberg to LV which they don't want to do. Acquiring Kane no without moving Fowler now or at season's end, would likely expose both Kane and Sliverberg to expansion, which they also don't want to do.
Solution: Trade Fowler to us at season's end for Kane and then go with a 7-3-1. This protects Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler, Kane, Rakell, Silfverberg and Cogliano plus Vatanen, Lindholm and Bieksa with exempt Theodore and Montour fighting for Fowler's job next fall.
Then Sabres under their 7-3-1 protect Risto, McCabe and Fowler ?
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Kane > Stafford, younger, more physical and fits faster game
Kane's value is a function of the development of the 5 other power forwards on team/or in Roch (Foligno, Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste and Fasching). GMTM is building a team with a mixuture of size, speed and skill. We don't need 6 power forwards, we need 4, at most 5; complement those with some skill wings and two-way centers and you have your forward group.
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Interesting Metro primer! Is there an Atlantic one?
No deadline discussion would be complete without an acknowledgment of our prospect pipeline.
1) Nylander LW/C - eta 2nd half of 2017-18 or start of 2018-19
2) Guhle D - start of 2017-18.
3) Bailey RW/LW - currently in Buffalo as a callup. Start of 2017-18
4) Baptiste RW - Start of 2017-18 at best or first callup in 2017-18
5) Fasching RW - callup in 2017-18
6) Peterson - G - AHL next season. I figure at least 2 years in Roch.
7) Borgen - D - AHL next season. Could get a callup in 2017-18.
8) Asplund - C - depends on when he makes the move to NA. If he joins the Amerks next season, could vault up this list. 2018-19?
9) Ullmark - G - Could he get the backup slot if Nilsson traded? Likely the backup next year if not grabbed by LV in expansion.
10) Carrier - LW - currently in Buffalo and likely staying.
11) Pu - C/W - London leading scorer. Not old enough for the AHL. I figure 2019-2020.
12) Fitzgerald - D - likely an Amerk next season. 2019-2020.
13) Estephan - C - following up last year's breakout with another good campaign. AHL next year. 2019-2020.
14) Cornel - C/W - Adjusting to AHL. I expect him to blossom next year in the AHL. Callup late next year?
Does anyone know we'd expose Ullmark in expansion draft ?
Why not sign Nilsson to a 1-year extension and expose him ?
You also forgot Florentino on your list. I'd put him around 10, ahead of Carrier.
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I do not want any tech stuff on the ice, or the football pitch. I don't even want video review of goals.
Let the refs on the ice decide and let the chips fall where they may.
While were at it, let's do away with those funny looking things on their noses, you know glasses :flirt:
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Pecan Lodge? It's a little over 2 miles away which could be hell in traffic or if you are walking it.
Thanks.
If I don't get there tonight, might try it for lunch.
LOVE BBQ ~~
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In DFW for business today and tomorrow -- heading to the game
Any places near American Airlines Center to chekc out ?
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My Dad always talks about "The Blizzard", he and his father and my uncle were stranded on Grand Island and slept on tables at a VFW hall for 2 days before being rescued by a friend who had a 4 wheel drive vehicle that could make it's way back to Niagara Falls. My grandmother always shares pictures of my Dad at the top of a snow drift that reached the second story of their home. AMAZING !!
I agree, a once in 200+ year or more event
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Draft class overall is weak, I read somewhere that it's similar to 2012 talent -- a good draft to trade 1st round picks -- might see more of those move at trade deadline vs. years past
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Here's the deal: There is a less than 50% chance of any given team making the playoffs in a given year, and about a 3% chance of any given team winning the Cup.
Now take a team that's closer to the bottom that it is to the elite teams, and the odds are much worse.
Being an incumbent elite team tends to perpetuate itself until decay eventually sets in. The best elite teams manage to regenerate their core on a rolling basis (think of Detroit rolling Yzerman/Federov into Zetterberg/Datsyuk, or the evolution of the core in Chicago). Then there are flash-in-the-pan teams that do well for a year or two, but can't sustain it.
The perennial winners built up to that status. They had years of struggles and frustration before winning it all. Yzerman was in Detroit 14 years before winning a Cup.
We're in Year Two of Eichel/ROR/Reinhart. The team is showing improved talent. Realistically, it may take another two or three years before this team really deserves to be in the playoffs. Trading away the proper pieces to get better pieces will improve the team, but this team also needs to develop its system, its chemistry, its depth, etc. Taking a while to develop this team does not mean that GMTM is mismanaging the rebuild. There's a lot of moving pieces to bring into place, and they're not going to come instantly.
There are excitng prospects in the system. It's tempting to rush Guhle, Nylander, etc., up to the big club, but the proper development of these players will take some time. Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching and Carrier are closer, but they are probably more like Foligno (bottom 6 player that can handle some top 6 duty) than Nylander (clear top 6 projection). Building an enduring, quality team isn't something that can be done in a season or two. If we want a quality rebuild we have to understand that it's going to take a while.
I'm as frustrated by Bylsma as anyone. His style does not motivate players to over-achieve. If this was the last year the Sabres would be playing hockey, I'd want to see a much more dynamic coach who favored more goal scoring. But this isn't the Championship Year, even if the Sabres max out their potential. Subjecting themselves to Bylsma's system might not make the Sabres live up to their potential right now, but I think it's laying the foundation for future success. Changing coaches now won't necessarily accelerate that process, even if it is ultimately another coach that will take us to the promised land.
If you've watched Karate Kid, we're currently in "Wax On, Wax Off" mode. It's hard to see how that will make us successful, but I really believe we are moving in the right direction and will have future success. If you're looking at the Detroit model, we may still be 10 years or more away from a Cup win though.
Intriguing thought process on Bylsma's system and the lasting long term effects it might have.
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Last 11, 6-3-2, since Jack, 4-2-1 -- 105 point pace
Couple that with first 21 games, we'd end year around 98 points
Need time
Let's see where we are at end of December
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Unless I'm getting my dates and injuries mixed up, DB's style change had as much to do with the loss of Kulikov and Bogo and not wanting to expose their weaker defense as it did with Eichel/Kane and ROR being out.
After 11 games Sabres were 5-4-2 and on an 89 point pace, I think we'd all agree that was on the lower end of acceptable.
After the 11th game the proverbial ###### hit the fan with more injuries, and with an AHL lineup and lack of scoring he clamped things down.
I think the question for tonight is with a healthy forward group and weak defense does he open things up or continue to lock down because of the D ?
EDIT: Bogo has been out since game #10, Kulikov since game #12, ROR missed games 13 and 15-19
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OP -- change the name of this thread, I almost had a heart attack !
I think you will see Eichel in Roch for a game, he'll have been away from game action since World Cup (over 2 months) and would need to "ramp up".
Kane was only out 4 weeks.
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It will be open season on the stars! And without that release of pent-up emotions, stick fouls will explode!
Disagree. If fighting was illegal I'd agree, it still provides the deterrent to cheap shots (as does harder penalties). I for one, like to watch hockey, with hard checking and hitting, but, have not missed the fights, especially the premeditated ones that pitted our tough vs. theirs.
Over time, I'd love for NHL to expand the ice to international dimensions to really open up the game. And please start strictly enforcing interference and the clutching and grabbing.
The Toronto game was exciting to watch with the uptempo style by both teams
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I'm surprised Foligno didn't get an assist on the winning goal. He started the play by pinching a Wild player off the puck near the Buffalo blue line which is where Gionta picked it up to start the rush. A little hard to see in the replay, but it looked to me that Foligno tipped it over to Gio. He's not the most talented skills guy, but he works hard and works effectively all over the ice. I don't understand all the disappointment.
Not sure I'd characterize my feeling as disappointment, I think you hit nail on head, he's not most talented skills guy, I think that shows on his lack of sustained impact on score sheet. When you watch him, you are wanting him to finish (score) and it just doesn't happen very often.
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What a difference an early 3-game win streak has to everyone's psyche. The team played a disciplined road game to get W.
Ennis looks a lot better and more in control, he and Girgs play well off each other and Reinhart can play with anyone. Will be interesting to see how DD reassembles the lines post-Kane and then post-Eichel
Larsson is quickly becoming a cornerstone piece to this team, I love that line, but, still are always left wanting just a little more from Foligno.
I think I finally get the DD defensive pairing logic and then Bogo gets hurt (again), we'll see how much Nelson has progressed on Thursday.
I actually loved the Grant-Baptiste-Bailey line, what energy, sometimes a bit too much, but would love to see those 3 again on Thursday.
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I think you judge team when healthy. It needs to be 95+ point pace at that point. Until then, it's too hard when you are missing 2 of your top 6 forwards.
You can properly evaluate individual players along the way, but it's not fair to judge the collective group, Bylsma or GMTM.
Let the Fire Bylsma Watch begin
in The Aud Club
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Not to mention the sheer agony of watching stretch passes that never connect and when they do, the ridiculous dump and chase --