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mjd1001

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Posts posted by mjd1001

  1. 13 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

    Observationally there are some things about Dahlin's game that I wish he would clean up. At times he seems to want to play a one on one game where he will wait for an attacker to come to him and then try to stick handle out of it. Sure he wins a lot of the battles but if does not the others are out of position because they staying open for a pass and not in a defensive position to help. Sabres are blessed with a number of mobile D players that can carry the puck out of the zone. Dahlin does not have to do that all on his own. He will also wait at times for the one on one fight at the blue line. If he loses it's a breakaway and Dahlin does not always chase that player back down the ice which really sucks to watch. Look I know you got beat but at least you can take away a second chance rebound if you chase it down. 

    Another thing is getting caught too long behind the opponents goal line on when on the attack. If you get pinned or dumped behind the goal you leave people like Skinner, Krebs, Benson, and so on to cover the blue line. You have to get in make your play and rotate back out faster. Power is guilty of this move as well. Dahlin can fight his way out of it better but it still can be a problem. 

    I don't know what to think of his power play moves. The power play is such a mess it's not just one thing. I know this much if Dahlin plays catch long enough sooner or later there is a fumble and 30 seconds are wasted without a shot on goal. I liked when they put Byram on the power play because I thought it would free up Dahlin to use his feet more to drive the net or break the D down. Leaving a responsible D man at the line who can shoot would seem to be an answer but they axed that after a few games. 

    When Dahlin is skating shooting there are few that match his skills. It's just decision making that holds him back at times. 

    I think I look at him more positively because I think his positives outweigh his negatives, and I think many of his negatives are a result of those around him.  However, I can see and understand some of your points.  "Clean up" is a good word, as I think he is capable of doing those things.

    We have to remember, Dahlin is still so young and inexperienced. When you look at D-men that are 2-way guys (known for both their offensive play as well as their defensive/physical play), You look at Hedman (33 years old,  1207 career games), Josh Morrissey (29 years old, 614 games) Adam Fox (26 years old, 381 games), Roman Josi (33 years old, 988 games), Charlie McAvoy(26 years old, 530 games played). Dahlin is still only 23 years old, has 430 games but none of those are playoff games and most of them were with a losing team. He still is young and learning, D-men take a while to fully develop so I'm still very hopeful with him.  When you look at all of those guys I listed none of them (not even Hedman) were considered as good as they are when they were 23 years old.

      

  2. I posted this a couple months ago, regarding comparables......and this was when he was just starting to play better, he has a longer stretch of good play since this was posted....UPL will likely have 45-50 career wins at the end of this year with 5 or more shutouts. Also keep in mind the goalies listed below were signed with a lower cap. I would expect any of those deals if signed this year would be 5% higher with the cap going up since then.

     

    UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

    -Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

    -Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

    -Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

    -MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

    -Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

    • Like (+1) 4
  3. I think you need him here next year, and hopfully a bit beyond, so like everything else, you negotiate and see what he and his agent think is market is.  The Sabres aren't up against the cap now, so I don't cheap out on a deal.  It would be different if he wanted 7 years for 56 million....that isn't happening, so I'm willing to overpay (if needed) on a short to medium term deal in order to keep him here.  

    I know some will say don't overpay him, he's only been good for half of a season. I get that, but to me, you can't risk not having him here next year or trading him because he demands a contract that you can easily fit under the cap.

    You gave Clifton 3.3 million for 3 years, and even if he never played again that contract isn't going to sink your cap or your team. You gave Samuelsson 4.3 million long term. UPL has potentially (and LIKELY) much more value to the team than any of them.  So yeah, get the best deal you can, but don't cheap out and risk him going to arbitration (possibly getting more than you would give him in a medium term deal) and eventually him wanting out.

    • Like (+1) 2
  4. 3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

    Man... As much as I try, I just can't find the old SCTV clips funny. I REALLY respect the cast, and really want to like it, but either it's all dated now or maybe wasn't really all that funny in the first place. That clip really wasn't funny in the least. Was cool seeing the vintage Canadian mall and sports store, and hearing the old Leafs announcer though.

    I, like many, grew up less than 10 miles from the Canadian Border. After leaving Western NY after college, for the last decade or so I'm back and I can walk down the street now and see Canada.  Saturday nights were Hockey Night in Canada on TV...and a lot of time growing up was spent watching CBC and CBLT.  I'm no stranger to Canada or Canadian televsion.  But, I found that 'Canadian televsion comedy' was something I just didn't always like.

    John Candy, in more 'american' movies was great. Jim Carrey, Ryan Reynolds, Seth Rogen, Dan Akroyd....we all know the list of many others, I like a lot of their stuff, but the stuff I usually like is the 'american-ized/usa based' stuff.  A lot of the Stuff out of Canada though...SCTV, Kids in the Hall, Degrassi, Trailer Park Boys, Schitts Creek...I don't know, I can't seem to get into any of it.

    Super Dave, Strange brew (as a kid) and Kim's Convenience are just a few I liked.  But the rest, I don't know, I just could never get into the stuff out of Canada.

  5. 18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

    So what's your opinion of Skinner who constantly chirps at opposing teams? Doesn't back it up but taunts and chirps all the time. Point being this is far from a unique thing. It happens all over. Rempe is acting like the Heel in wrestling. It's a show to win over fans and win a job. He's huge but he's over doing it and getting his share. He will wear down.

    Which gets to the point a lot of (often younger) fans who are anti fighting don't get. If you talk to these guys or listen to the stories from the retired ones, having to answer the bell wears on you too and you don't want to have to do it all the time. So when that's a thing, you sometimes think twice before laying a guy out and so that too protects your stars and other players. Less liberties are taken. The Sabres bubble thinks they can get away with the fancy new hockey, but if we do improve enough to be looked upon as a threat or team to worry about it's coming like it or not and we as a team will have to be ready for it. Right now, we are definitely not. 

     

    My opinion has always been the ultimate solution is for the NHL to fine players for anything dangerous.  Anything that can cause an escalation, anything that could justify a fight, you fine.  If the refs don't see it, but its on camera (and EVERYTHIGN is on camera) you fine it.  The whole thing of 'its a physical game its going to happen' doesn't hold for me because the NFL is a lot more physical, and you don't see fights much in the NFL you don't see people taking out other players from behind every single game...not nearly as much as you would think. Why? the NFL fines that stuff.

    Again, the players union doesn't want it, but start fining guys for all the cheap stuff, whether it leads to an injury or not, and it'll go way down.  I just personally don't like the cheap stuff at all.

    • dislike 1
  6. 21 hours ago, dudacek said:

    The bolded is a far more salient point.

    The flip side of “lock ‘em up while you can still afford them”.

    Pretty hard to judge Adams 1 year into a half-dozen long-term deals.

    But each one he adds makes the next one harder to accommodate and he has to get most of them right.

    True, if I look at them so far:

    -Tage.  Think it should still be a good deal.  I do think he is still playing hurt, even with that he is likely to score 30.  Over the last 3 years, including this 'bad' year, he has 112 goals in 221 games (almost a 42 goal per 82 rate)  What is the 'market rate' for a guy who has the potential to get 50, his bad year is about 30, has a 3 year average of close to 40...and is 26 years old?  I think this is a really good extension.

    -Cozens. Well, he only has 1 really good year.  Hes likely to be in the high teens this year in goals, and he has improved to me in his own end and has not become a pretty decent (not GOOD but decent) 2-way forward.  If he gives you 15-20 goals per year, not an awful deal but probably not a good one. He gives you 30 or more like he did last year and its a good deal. Someplace in between (low to mid 20's) and its probably a wash between a good or bad deal.

    -Dahlin. He's the best player on the team. I think he is under-rated by many posters on this board. He is a top 10 Dman in the league right now, and has potential to be a Norris trophy winner. Your paying a lot, but you locked up a 23 year old elite level D-man long term.  I think its a good deal.

    -Samuelsson.  Probably not a good deal.  Just simply becuase he is not durable. One injury is nothing, a couple still may not be a trend, but with how many times he has gotten hurt it is a trend.  You aren't paying him a ton so its probaly a bad deal (at this piont) but its not sinking the franchise.

    -Power.  This is really a toss up. At the moment he is not worth next years salary, probably won't be worth it next year, but at any time he is capable of become a very good-to-great D-man and being worth it. Its just going to take a while. 

    • Like (+1) 1
  7. On 3/31/2024 at 1:22 PM, Pimlach said:

     

    Dahlin is overplayed. 

    Tage and Cozens have struggled this year and that has to change next season is this team is going anywhere.  

    I agree with you, I have said since the beginning of last year they need to cut down his ice time a bit, even if they think he can handle it.  The good news?  Since they traded for Byram, Dahlin's ice time is down quite a bit....

    Before Byram got here, he averaged 25:50 per game. In the month since Byram got here, Dahlin is down to 24:09. A drop of more than a minute and a half per game is a LOT.

    And that is with him still getting about 1.5 minutes per game on the PK.  Next year if/when Samuelsson gets back and takes those minutes, Dahlin should be off the PK and get even more time off...so...I'm hopeful.

  8. 56 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/new-twist-to-stefon-diggs-trade-as-texans-give-him-chance-to-be-free-agent-next-year-202814251.html

     

    Texans have him a raise and eliminated the final 3 years of his deal so he is a free agent after this coming season. Very strange. Maybe it is an out if he deteriorates more and is a headcase to boot.

    So, Diggs gets the bonus money from Buffalo and his yearly salary. Buffalo takes a cap hit he goes on to Houston...gets THEM to restructure, giving him more up front money.  Then he gets a chance to sign with ANOTHER club a year later with another likely big signing bonus.  

    Through all of this, Diggs is making a LOT of money.  When you figure in his signing bonus, he's got to be actaully making an average of $25 million per year or more.

  9. 1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    IF they were great at making adjustments, the win total would be significantly higher.

    Or you could say that they just aren't that good of a team yet, in terms of talent, which is why they start out slowly, and the adjustments the coaches make help them.   I'm not saying that is true, but the argument can be made either way.

    • Like (+1) 1
  10. On 4/3/2024 at 2:38 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

    Sabres goals allowed in the 1st period - 91 (worst in the NHL)

    Sabres goals for in the 1st period - 59 (7th worst in the NHL)

    Sabres 1st period differential - -32 (2nd worst in the NHL) (Chicago is -33, Ana - 19, Stl -13)

    Sabres differential for the season 0.  That means we are +32 the rest of the game.

    Sabres wins when leading after the 1st period 15 (6th worst in the NHL).  Win % when leading after 1 = .833 (8th best in the NHL)

    Wins when leading after the 2nd period - 23 (22nd in the NHL).  Sabres win % when leading after 2 periods = .920 (3rd best in the NHL).  

    The stats illustrate that the Sabres slow starts killed this season.  When the Sabres did come out strong, they nearly always won.  The coaching was unsuccessful in solving the problem of the slow starts.  Since KA isn't getting rid of the players, he needs to move on from the coaches that couldn't find a solution to the slow starts. 

     

    That could be argued both ways.

    Those who want Granato gone:  This coaching staff can't get the team ready for games!

    Those who want Granato to stay:  This coaching staff is great at making adjustments, look at how they get better as the game goes on.

    I like this stat, I think its interesting, but I don't put much faith in it to evaluate the coaching staff.  Ultimately with this team they have scored the exact same number of goals that they allowed...you can't be more in the middle with that.

  11. 23 minutes ago, #freejame said:

    His entire team just came to his defense from the starting lineup to the head coach. I don’t think he’s an issue whatsoever. He wasn’t even the first to drop his gloves last night, that was Vesey. The message from the Rangers was you want to talk a bunch of ***** about our guy to the media and come after him well ***** you we’re going to come after you instead. 

    I get your point, but if he doesn't evolve, eventually it may get to the point I said.  Boys will be boys, even the non-fighters might like a game like that occasionally, but if he keeps cheap shotting other players on the other team, and he keeps taunting the other teams bench, my point is it may get worse and not in a good way for his team.

  12. 8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

    These guys are all basically to be viewed as at best, late 2nd round picks. Most of them should be considered in the value range of 3-5th round picks, meaning they won't make it for the most part. Just another talent pool and lottery ticket. 

    I don't even know if these things are done, and I'm sure this idea would have to be 'collectivly bargained with the union'...and of course the players wouldn't like it because these guys out of college want to sign with the team of their choice but....

    for fans, a 'supplemental' draft would be fun. When the college season is over (or junior season, or both)...anyone who is a free agent, who is no longer draft eligible, is entered into a supplement draft. Teams pick in order like they do in the regular draft.  If you pick one of them with your first round pick, then you LOSE your first round pick in the upcoming draft. If you skip the first round (and everyone else does) and you think a guy is worthy of a 2nd round pick when it is your turn you can pick them in the 2nd round of the supplmental draft, but then you lose your 2nd round pick in the upcoming regular draft...and 3rd round, 4th round..etc.

    Again, no-one would probably want that system except for the fans, but it WOULD get the fans excited to follow these guys and that draft...and certainly give fans something else to talk about.

  13. These guys are NHL prospects, but the undrafted free agent guys, I'm not as excited about as I used to be. 

    Maybe some of them turned into star players that I do not remember, but in the past, the buildup of Jimmy Vesey, Will Butcher, and guys that fans were all over thinking they would be major difference makers....it just seems to me SOME of these guys might help around the fringe, but very few end up being difference makers as much as they are built up to be.

  14. 5 minutes ago, Weave said:

    Rempe quickly embraced the Heel persona.  The whole league is going to hate him in no time.

    Reeves didn’t have a heel persona when the league was ripe with heavyweights.  He was more a middleweight or light heavy and knew it wouldn’t do well.  Since the heavyweight became extinct Reeves found he could get away with being an ass.  Rempe is right there in his footsteps.  He’d better learn to fight tactically soon cuz there are several guys that are more than willing and able to give him a beating.

    Plus I'm not so sure his teamates will like that if that is ALL he does.   The league is different now. Years ago the non-fighters would want the fighter on your team...fights happened more often, and you would rather the 'heavyweight' take care of it so you didn't have to.

    But now, a Guy like Rempe...it can become an arms race.  He does what he does..and not only does the team he does that too dress their 'enforcer' the next game, but him, and the 'marginal enforcers' are looking for something to happen. As a teammate on the Rangers, you just went from playing your game to now having one, or a FEW guys on the other team you face having that 'itchy fighting hand' or at least maybe those guys looking to make that 'borderline dirty hit' on SOMEONE on your team (maybe you) that would not have happened if Rempe didn't do the things you do.  So yeah. it can still be part of the game, and it was a bigger part of the game in the past. But I think a lot of modern-day players, the ultra skilled guys....Rempe's act will wear thin with them as a teammate much quicker than it did in the past.   Its not the fighting alone, its the fighting, the 'build up' to the fight, the dirty hits and the 'heel persona' he is taking on (waving at or chirping at the other teams bench)

  15. 8 minutes ago, Night Train said:

    I believe the Tim Graham article spoke volumes. Brady phased him out. 

    Here is what I think the reality is with Diggs, he can be/might be a pain for coaches in the locker room, he might be all about himself, but his skills are declining and declining rapidly.

    He's supposed to be an "Elite" WR right? making almsot $20 million per year, he better be, but he's not anymore.  He doesn't blow by guys anymore.  The occasions he was open deep, well, he was occasionally, but not nearly as often as he was in the past.  How many times a year did you see him catch a pass in open territory and make a couple guys miss and turn a slant or a curl into a big gain?  I'm not saying he is awful, but he is no longer a game breaker or even a THREAT do do that other teams to have account for.  

    THIS is what happens to most WR's when they get over 30 years old.  It just does most of the time, and Diggs is not immune to it. And its NOT going to be better this year than it was last year. Sure, he might put up decent numbers with Houston (and I'm not sure that even will happen), but they may want to show off their 'shiny new toy' and feed him the ball, but he's no longer a game breaker.

    As many have said, his stats (and his overall play) declined a LOT over the last year.  Zero 100 yard games in the last 13 games played with the Bills.  Most of those games he didn't even get 50 yards. Basically invisible in the last 3 playoff games the team played. He simply is not a great, or even very good WR anymore.  And if there is one thing that is worse than having a WR who isn't great anymore, its having one that THINKS he is still great when he isn't, and demands to be treated as if he is still great when he isn't anymore.

  16. 3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

    Excellent post.   I think Dahlin is as complete a package, one more so, than many of the usual Norris contenders.  

    I think Dahlin is one of the best D-men in the league right now. There are a few things holding him back from getting the attention across the league and from Buffalo fans also.

    1.  The team isn't good and not in the playoffs. He won't get the coverage that players on top teams in the playoffs get.

    2.  As per the previous discussions, he isn't putting up the point totals. Not because he is not as good as the guys that do, but the forwards on this team are just schooting/scoring a lot less than the guys on the other top guys teams. As said, If Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, etc, converted chances at the same rate as other teams, or EVEN at the same rate as they did last year, Dahlin would be up near the top in points as he would have a lot more assists.

    3.  There are more times Dahlin LOOKS like he is making mistakes in his own zone...simply becaue for much of the year he was playing behind possibly the worst group of forwards in the league in their own end.  The Sabres have gotten better the last few months in this way, and guess what? Dahlin looks better in his own zone.  He might be BETTER than the other guys in Norris consideration with D-zone play, but he is going to look worse with how often he is in a bad position in his own end.

    Is Dahlin the perfect defensive player? No.  Is he on track to be the best D-man ever? probably not.  But I honestly think he is, when considering ALL parts of his game (offensive zone, defensive zone, physical play, shooting/scoring) right near the top of the league.

    • Like (+1) 2
  17. 4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

    A great benefit to Rochester being so close.  Levi should play more and help the Amerks get into the playoffs.  He can still backup in Buffalo at times, or even get a few more games in the NHL too.  

    Agree. I'm just hoping Rochester holds onto their playoff spot (looks like they will) and he gets some playoff games with the guys down there, and hopefully they win at least one series again.

    • Like (+1) 1
  18. 5 hours ago, sabrefanday1 said:

    Big brawl...yawn. Of course there is no one to challenge Rempke on the Sabres. And to be honest I really do not care. I would have liked us to keep Marcus or get someone to fill that role when needed for sure however.   

    I too would LIKE someone on the Sabres to have the ability to 'answer the bell' in those situations, but I don't care that much.  There are some who lement fighting leaving the league and some who don't need it at all. Give me end to end hockey with goals, and I don't need it at all.

    But it is what it is. I was watching the game last night and when the puck dropped, I didn't turn away form the TV. But for Rempe himself, something about him rubs me the wrong way.  A couple of dirty hits, doesn't seem to be going out of his way to avoid them.  Then he gets in fights...some are a draw, some he losses, and yet he seems to always want to skate by the opponents bench and say something or salute the crowd after a fight. Its like man, you got in a fight you didn't win...the reason you got in that fight is because you dirty hit someone, and after that fight you are going to go yapp at the opponents bench on the way off the ice?  To me, not cool.

    • Like (+1) 2
  19. 14 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

    What I find it curious by their absence is any commentary from McDermott or Brady on this matter. I believe they were integral in this whole thing. Diggs wanted out and McD didn't want him on the team any longer IMPO). I can't shake the image from a couple seasons ago of Brady and Josh on the bench during a game looking at the pad together deciphering what the opponent's defense was doing. And Diggs is standing over them flapping his gums at them. Brady must have been thinking, or saying, 'Dude, STFU and go sit down. We're working here.' Brady was the QB coach then. He's the OC now.

     

    I don't mind McDermott as coach, I guess I kinda like him. I'm not married to the idea of him being here forever, but I never really was ever on the train of firing him, or even thinking about it.  With that said, he is a little strange with the media.  At times its like he is trying to be like Bellichick with giving nothing to the media, but he does it his own way trying at time to be SLIGHLTLY more friendly, but its just, I don't know, it comes across as really strange.

    Back onto Diggs, after listening, reading others opinions, and thinking of the trade, I'm really really good with it.  I've posted many times that I want this team to get younger.  Before LAST year I thought the Diggs extension was a mistake, and yes, I did post that I didn't want Vonn Miller at all even when he first arrived, and I think last year was the year to move on from Poyer and Hyde, not this year.  I prefer a younger/more athletic time. I know, sometimes you need veterans, and if I had my way the football or hockey team I put together would always be a bit too young, but that is what I like.   I never liked guys that much who "made their name" with other teams and then were aquired. Yes, your franchise gets attention for that, but for me its just more fun bringing in relative 'unknowns' and having them make their name WITH you....and then I prefer getting rid of players a year too early rather than a year too late.

    Plus Diggs, I was never a fan of his social media presense.  Yeah, I know we can ignore it if we want, but just something about me, I prefer guys/players/stars who stay off of Social media (kinda like Josh Allen) rather than guys who 'build their brand' on it, and always need to have some interaction on it. Just me.  To be totally honest, he was a Buffalo Bill but I really didn't like him.

    I'm going to look forward to watching a younger (if not as good for a year) team play football this year in the Bills. I"m going to look forward to seeing what moves they make in the offseason.  Next to winning the Superbowl, the Bills are now in position that makes me the MOST interested I can possibly be in them....The team building/team construction aspect is the most fun thing for me as a fan, certainly a lot more fun than just 'running the vets' back out there year after year.

    • Like (+1) 1
  20. This may be something I posted in the past, but it came up today again so I'm posting it again.

    on Espn, Stephen A. Smith.  He just yells and yells and yells, how does anyone like that, let a long tolerate it?

    I hardly watch ESPN anymore, but after the Diggs trade, I turned it on for a few minutes yesterday.  Turned off the TV after a couple minutes. So just a few minutes ago, I turn the tv on and because ESPN was on last, it came on right away, and immediately, I have no idea what it was even about, he's just yelling, like on the verge of screaming.

    How does someone make a career about complaining about things in sports, being angry all the time, and just yelling on tv? I don't get it.

  21. 7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

    I don't understand why there is such a chorus of criticism for his lack of physicality because that's how he played in college. (As you point out.) When the Sabres drafted him with the first pick in that draft year, they, like all teams scouting him, were well aware of the type of player he was in college and would be in the NHL. He still was considered the consensus (not unanimous) first pick in that draft. I'm happy we drafted him. 

    I agree for the most part. People wanting him to hit, to be a "Chris Pronger" type, thats just not his game. It doesn't matter that he is as big/tall as he is.

    Most of us know the stats. Hits per 60 minutes...Power is at 1.57 this year.  Clifton is a 9.45, Samuelsson 7.7. Dahlin at 5.5 Byram at 5.  The Sabres are a team notorious for not hitting and its almost like Power shys away from contact. The top D-men around the league are around 15 hits per 60.

    But..there are a lot of guys like Power below 2 hits per 60 that are very good D-men.  Hampus Lindholm in Boston is 1.8. Pesce and Slavin in Carolina are below 2. Cale Makar is at 1.2. Josi at 1.39. Quinn Hughes at 0.79!  So, you don't have to hit to be a very good/great D-man.  Is Power any of those guys...No, not yet, but he is still developing his game.

    So, people see a big body and they want hits.  Power just might have the skillset/gamestyle/mentality closer to those guys I listed above, its just that he happens to be that in a much larger/taller body.  Hopefully he will turn into a D-man that gets you 10-20 goals, 50+ points, one who makes a great first pass out of the zone, is a very good penalty killer, and is skilled enough offensively to fill in on the Power play (and be effective  handling the puck) when Dahlin or Byram are out or need a break.  You get a guy like that (which I think is his projection and he is on his way there), then he can be a great D-man without hitting anyone.

    Would a few more hits be nice? Yeah, at times, but just becaue he is tall that doesn't mean that is who he is, he can be very good without playing that way.

  22. On 4/2/2024 at 4:47 AM, SabreFinn said:

    I have never looked at shotpercentage, so this was a good post from a view I do not look at stats.  Can you tell more about the league average percentage? The shot percentage that Col and Van has seems very high to me. And the Sabres low.

    High danger chances...basically right in front of the net.  Half way or less from the circles to the goalposts, and between the dots.

    As of right now, leauge average for shots from there is 593 shots, the Sabres are at 545 shots. So yes, when people say its coaching because they are getting less chances from there, they are near the bottom, but not far away at all from league average.

    Last year they had 18 less shots than 'league average' from the high danger zone. This year they have 48 less.  It would be reasonable to say the increased number of games missed by your top offensive players (Tuch, Skinner, Quinn, Thompson) and the level of their replacements along account for the change in those numbers.

    Their offensize zone time compared to defensive zone time is almost identical this year compared to last year. 

    HOWEVER, the players part, converting those chances...the league average shooting percentage is 19.7% from the 'high danger' area. The Sabres are at only 14.7%.

    My point is..lets say the Sabres could change coaches and the same players who converate at 14.7% when they get those shots are not put on position to be there more often (lets say league average.)  They would have 48 more shots, at 14.7%, which would (statisticall) equal about 7 more goals for the year.

    But lets flip it around.  Lets say the same coaching staff gets them 'only ' 545 shots from those high danger areas, but they convert at just league average rate (19.7%).  That gives them 27 more goals. So to me, this is more on the players than it is the coaces.  Last year they converted in those high danger areas at 19.1%.

      Last year they were 3rd in the leauge in goals, and stil last year they were slightly below average in terms of total shots taken from the high danger areas.  The main difference from this year to last year is the rate the players are converting those high danger shots.  Whether it's Tage's wrist injury, Tuch being banged up since camp, Cozens regressing...etc.   

    When you dig really deep into analytics, the 'fancy stats', you can come up with numbers to support any point of view you want.  My main point is the one thing that doesn't change is simply this...compared to last year, the drop off in goals is due mostly/mainly to players simply not converting on chance this year that they were last year.

    • Thanks (+1) 1
  23. 4 hours ago, JohnC said:

    What you just stated is the mercurial nature of hockey. Washington hit the pipes at least half a dozen times. If a few of those shots would have instead ricocheted in, this would have been a more closely contested game.  We were fortunate. But overall, we were the better team. As others have stated, that's what has been so frustrating about this season. We are better than many of the teams vying for the playoffs.

    The Sabres made some exquisite passes that resulted in scores. The pass to Tuch and Tage were examples of that. Our first line with Tuck/Tage/JJ dominated this game. As you point out UPL was a difference maker. He's playing like a good #1 NHL goalie. 

    One of the main deficiencies in this team all season long was the lack of net presence on offense. It was better in this game. Girg's goal was an example of what can happen when you are willing to position yourself in that tough turf. 

    Since his return, I thought Quinn was moving very well. His injury before the season and during the season was very damaging. It had a cascading negative effect to more than one line. 

    There are those that argue that the remaining games are meaningless. What are they arguing for? To give up and not play hard and not play with pride and integrity? I just don't understand that odd line of reasoning!

    Quinn played many times better last game than before.

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  24. 3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

    I was more upset about the Mitts trade, tbh.

    Michael Biehn Wtf GIF by GritTV

    Nothing wrong with that.

    Trading a guy who in his mid 20's is coming into his own, leading your team in points, that seems to be liked well by management and his teammates.  VS  Trading a 30+ year old WR that didn't much much of a difference at all the last 10 games he played, who appears to be getting to the point in his career his skill is sliding and was/is due big contract dollars the next 3-4 years.

    • Like (+1) 2
  25. 3 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

    Exactly.  Time for a reset.  He was not going to be here longer than this year anyways.  We get younger and faster.  In the long run it will be better. 

    If you want to really stretch, Houston gets a guy on the decline, that they either overpay at what? $18m per year? Or the cut him themselves and lost the 2nd rounder they gave up for him.  Maybe not this year, but you could have weakened (slightly) an opponent in the conference for the next few years.

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