mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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16 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
Shut out, in the shoot out.
No Tage? No Dahlin?
I would think you would try Dahlin more. Maybe he is awful on them in practice? In his career he has now been in 38 shootouts, and he has 3 attempts. About 1 in every 13 shootouts he gets used.
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4 hours ago, spndnchz said:
He’s not fast enough for a top team spot.
To me he certainly is.
When I watch him play, I don't see players pulling away from him. The opposite in fact, on the backcheck, I see him keeping up with, or catching opposing players more than most other guys on this team. Just recently look at some of his short handed goals....guys with lesser speed might have been caught from behind, he usually isn't.
In terms of stats, NHL edge tracking has him above average in terms of top speed every year since he has been here, and in the top 25 percentile of the league every year in terms of speed bursts.
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On 4/9/2025 at 6:45 PM, PerreaultForever said:
I've never thought of Tuch as a "defensive forward". Who is calling him a defensive forward and why?
What do you consider a defensive forward? To me its not about offense and defensive, its a subtle difference....."with the puck" and "without the puck"
I have always thought he was the best forchecker on the team and one of the best in the league. He's not great in his own end...He's not taking the body all the time or taking the puck away from the opposition in the defensive end. Still, seeing how he is good at forchecking, and I consider him very good "without the puck".
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McLeod with 50 points now. Dahlin with an outside shot for 70 points.
The top of the roster is hitting, or getting near, some nice round numbers.
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Just now, Doohickie said:
Going forward how far? Three years? Sure.
Six years? I would hope so, but..... he's probably heading into steady decline, but maybe not. Who knows which players will age well and which won't?
That is the tough thing about Tuch. He is very valuable. In my opinion, the 3rd best player on this team. But how do you deal with his next contract?
-3rd best player. Fan favorite. From the area. He has an A.
-His next contract will START when he is 29, going on 30. Players, on average (not all the time but on average), peak right about the age he is now. He my very well be starting his 'production decline' as he starts a new deal.
How much do you pay him, for how long?
Give him a 3-4 year offer and he may balk at that, and have a lot of fans that say the offer is offensive. Give him 6-7 and its ALMOST a certainty he will be overpaid for the majority of the deal. I have no idea how this plays out.
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13 minutes ago, Thorner said:
I guess you guys are just losing me with the premise. You are such a thorough poster I’m surprised you don’t already know my opinion on this?
have I posted about it in length a billion times: yes
am i now frequently also resorting to emojis when I see points I have already responded to (that’s the key): also yes
You already know what I am gojng to say
It’s short form
I understand you like to lay it all out, long form, every time, re-iterated: I do that too sometimes. But when it’s been said a million times the search function works too. This is why I mentioned post count so you’d know I wasn’t being disingenuous: i do in fact post my feelings out a lot it was a fact not a brag of supposed quality. I ACTUALLY have posted about it a zillion times I’m not being difficult
Sorry, maybe my memory is short...or I read too much of this forum....but I sometimes have difficulty keeping opinions of some users differernt from others. I respond to what is in front of me. If I search for the opinions of every user that I reply to...I'd be spending more time searching users and their opinions than I do at my job.
I know you don't like Adams and you think that the franchise moves forward when he is gone. I know you think Bryam is over-rated by many users....and I agree with that. I honestly do not know your exact opinion of Cozens as a player. And I stopped using the search function on here a long time ago....If a converstaion is currently happening I will re-iterate my point for those who may not know what it is...rather than forcing them to search, as that can be very time consuming.
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8 minutes ago, Thorner said:
Do you understand context?
He’s telling me to post more. I said I post enough
you can’t even process the fact im taking a shot at my OWN post count. Like, you think I’m pumping my own tires - that’s what you take from it
why interject yourself? Because you don’t like the fact i give your posts emojis sometimes? We both know that’s why
Because I agree with him. I have posts where I share my opinions on Cozens, many times replying and engaging due to replying to others comments, and yet I'm curious as to the downpost emojis from you. I do what to know, what is your opinion of Cozens? What kind of player do you think he is, was it wrong for the Sabres to give up on him? I keep seeing the 'dislikes', but I haven't seen you put your stake in the ground definitevely. I'd like to know, when someone disagrees with me or anyone else, where they actually stand?
Its a lot easier to disagree with someone, while leaving saracastic posts or ones that are often vague. Thats fine, its a message board, but if you are going to disagree with me or someone else on a topic, I'd just like to know the specific opinion where the differences lie.
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1 minute ago, Thorner said:
I’ve said it a million times. The last time I went on about a topic wookie told me to leave the board - have you seen my post count? Who’s around here is higher? I don’t think your premise is very accurate
Post count....oh brother. 🙄
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After watching some replays of the game and thinking about it a little more....
I think they played not-so-well last night. Its not just that they were outshot. They got away with some giveaways, Carolina seemed to me to have more possession and 'better possession (not sure of the stats on this, but that is what it felt like to me).
I think the Sabres were outplayed positionally. Now, they got the better goaltending and Tage and Tuch put the puck in the net and they are having great years, so having the talent to put the puck in the net when you get the chance matters.
Its just this winning streak/run.....remember, I think it was 2018 or 2019 where in November the Sabres were winning quite a bit but being outplayed every game....and eventually that 'luck' ran out and they started losing? This streak has the same feeling to me. They are winning. They are scoring. But the positional play just seems....lacking.
Winning is better than losing. So its more fun this way, It just doesn't 'look' right.
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10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
The Sabres traded their supposed #2 center and somehow are better even though the 2c they traded for isn't even playing. What a strange world hockey is.
As many of us have said, Cozens was a net negative on the team. He caused more goals against and he got his linemates less involve/engaged than an average #2/#3 center.
His skating, his hitting, his aggressive forcheck....it wasn't enough to even 'even out' his negatives.
Since he has been gone what happened with his ice time? Kulich, McLeod, and Krebs have gotten more. I would say the his 16 or so minutes are being 'played better' by those 3 guys than by him.
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2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:
I saw this, looked at it, looked at it again. I'm still not sure what's being presented. What does the card on the left represent? What does the card on the right represent? Also, both cards are a 3-year weighted average? If so, how does (can) a small sample size in Ottawa affect the overall numbers?
I agree it wasn't presented well, I tried to figure out the same thing. My guess is that, after a hot start, Dylan Cozens is basically playing the same way/just as effective in Ottawa as in Buffalo.
Looking at his analytics (50 being 'even', anything above 50 good, below 50 bad...)
Cozens with Buffalo this year: 50.8 Corsi, 49.2 Fenwick, 49.7 shots, 47.5 expected goals, 48.9 scoring chances, 44.2 high danger chances, 41.7 high danger goals.
Cozens so far with Ottawa: 44.5 Corsi, 44.8 Fenwick, 45.9 shots, 40.4 expected goals, 41.3 scoring chances, 45.1 high danger chances, 50 high danger goals.
Those analytics are pretty close, mostly negative with both teams.
In terms of his individual production (82 game pace for comparison:
-With Buffalo 82 game pace this year: 15 goals, 27 assists, -17, 7.9% shooting percentage.
-With Ottawa 82 game pace this year: 14 goals, 33 assists, -9, 7.7% shooting percentage.
Since the trade and he left Buffalo and joined Ottawa: Sabres: 11w-5L (112.75 point pace). Senators: 11w-6L (106 point pace)
His 17 games with Ottawa are a very small sample size in the grand scheme of things. One good game makes his 'projected' numbers look a lot better. One bad game makes them look a lot worse...but....
As of now...He is who he is. He is in Ottawa who he was in Buffalo. His numbers are close. He has 'average' statistical giveaways but they are often very costly ones with both teams. One team has not benefited more than the other (if anything, they both got better but Buffalo has gotten "more better" than Ottawa, especially considering Norris hasn't played). Maybe he'll have a great playoffs, or will change his game with an offseason in Ottawa. But as of now, not much has changed with his play to this moment.
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1 hour ago, Pimlach said:
I like Bernard Docker but a revelation at defense? Just what they needed? Your standards are pretty low.
He has been solid and steady so far. Has a more physical game than Jokiharju and Bryson, but that is not saying much He projects as a 5/6/7 type of defenseman, but on this team he can break top 4.
Ok, I'm not upset with his play, but I have yet to see him be much more than an average 3rd pair guy. I'm looking, and I'm hoping, but I just don't see enough signs that he is anything more than that yet.
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Just now, Stads said:
What is the board's thoughts on Byram? I had my doubts even as late as midseason, but I think he's a core piece. I may be drinking the "April Sabres" Kool-Aid.
I think he is a slightly above average overall D-man. Basically he positionally plays 'average at best' but he has some skating skill.
I won't be uspset if he his here next year, but I just don't see him, at least right now', playing like a really valuable piece of this team.
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I'll focus on the 'on ice' product and direct coaching of it:
-Pay whatever it takes to get Mitch Marner (if possible).
-Overpay (via trade, give up some prospects or in free agency offer more money) for one legit, veteran, very good top 4 D-man.
-Fix the goalie situation. I have no idea how to do it. Maybe UPL was playing hurt, maybe you need a free agent guy, maybe Levi is ready. Who know...I don't. But goalie needs to be a lot better.
-The young guys need to show they are ready/earn it. Benson, Kulich, Quinn, anyone from Rochester...they can be on this team but they have to show they are ready, ready to work, and show they are better through camp. If not, they don't just 'go in the lineup'. They either go back to Rochester or they sit in the pressbox.
There are a ton of things that can be done, I'm sure other people have much more lengthy lists than me...but my first 2 above are very heavy lifts. I'd just focus on the 3 things above.
Oh, maybe a 4th one. PowerPlay. Find the best coach in the league, the guy who schematically does the best with the PP, have Pegula pick him up on his private jet, offer his family a vacation, make him the highest paid assistant in the league...WHATEVER you need to do, just get him here (along with letting Lindy have full control over his other assistants if he is back as coach)
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2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:
Well, I can’t deny that those three players were very bad this year. But, I would still say that Adams and Ruff is what happened, not UPL, Cozens, and Quinn. Pick a team that is in the playoffs year after year. Then ask if their GM and head coach would let 2-3 players tank their season? It might be as simple as you say, but then it is an even larger indictment of Adams and Ruff. The fix was easy and those two guys couldn’t or wouldn’t do anything about it.
Also, since Ottawa acquired Cozens they are playing at a 113 point pace.
So you are telling me that since the trade, the Sabres have increased their pace of play by a greater margin than the Senators.
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9 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I go a little deeper, but I agree those were the three biggest roster holes this year: 2C, 3W and 1G.Those players underperformed their roles in dramatic fashion.
But it doesn’t stop there:
Owen Power was expected to take a step forward toward being a legit 2D. He was nowhere close. His points climbed a bit, but he dropped from one of team’s better plus performers to one of its biggest minuses.
Mattias Samuelsson was supposed to be a leader and a shutdown defender by now. He was neither. His Corsi, +/- and xG% all declined and he was a major factor in a struggling PK.
Jordan Greenway played fine, but he was available for less than half a season and was the teams only middle-sixer with size and defensive acumen.
And it’s not really their fault, but Zach Benson and/or Jiri Kulich were miscast: 25ish points are not enough for where they were being slotted in the lineup.
Add that to Clifton’s poor year in the #5 slot, the coaching staff’s utter inability to find a use for Jokiharju in the mix on defence, and the complete misses of Lafferty and Aube-Kubel as 2/3rds of the new-look 4th line, and there are a lot of areas where upgrades are needed.
That’s about half the roster below where you need it to be, and that is assuming Byram, McLeod and Zucker can repeat career years and the question of 2G gets answered.
Norris for Cozens addressed one question mark. Maybe Bernard Docker for Jokiharju addressed another.
There’s a ton of others that still need answers.
I agree with almost all of the above. My point earlier was the three BIGGEST issues were the ones I mentioned. If those weren't issue, this would still not be a legit cup team. I think everything you mentioned above us true and yes, they need to be better or they need to be replaced...just on my personal list they would be behind UPL, Quinn, and Cozens.
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9 minutes ago, JohnC said:
Great effort in your analysis. With respect to UPL's faltering how do you fix that positional deficiency? Do you try to rehabilitate him or replace him? If you decide to replace him, then with whom? Is Reimer at this stage of his career have the ability to be a # 1 workhorse goalie? I'm wary about taking that course. And as far as trading UPL, who is going to take him with his contract. My sense of what is going to happen under KA is that there will not be a change in staffing the position. That will be risky but the options appear to be limited.
Your Cozens analysis is intriguing. What it basically concludes is that his shedding was addition by subtraction. My hope is that Norris gets healthy and becomes at the minimum a contributing #2 center. If that happens, then the trade would favor the Sabres even more.
On the Quinn issue, it appears that I am an outlier. I'm more inclined to be more patient with him than you. (To state the obvious.) But even if retained, his role and playing minutes should be dictated by his play.
I'm not ready to give up on Quinn yet, I like to give forwards 200-250 games played before getting to that point. It is just there is no denying to me his play has hurt the team this year. Cozens I was done with, it was apparent he wasn't getting better. Quinn is just as bad, but either through his injury history or confidence, I'll give him more time. But he has hurt the team.
UPL I have NO idea. No idea why he fell off so badly, no idea what to do with him. I don't think Reimer can carry the workload of a starter, and who is to say if he would repeat his performance again next year if he could? As for UPL again, something happened to him mid-December. Did he get hurt and has been playing through it? Did the losing streak cause him to lose confidence?
Through the Thanksgiving weekend game vs Minnesota, UPL was 8-7 on the season and he had a .914 save percentage and a GAA about 2.50. (he was playing ALMOST like the UPL of last year). Then, its like the November 29th game vs Vancouver someone flipped a switch on him, since then he has a save percentage of .873, it dropped almost 40 points the rest of the year.
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50 minutes ago, Derrico said:
Combine that with tnt 43 goals and Tuch mid 30s in goals. Wtf happened?
-UPL happened: If my numbers are correct (they are close), if he would have matched his save percentage from last year, he would have allowed 32-35 goals less this year than he has. (playing behind basically the same defense, and its been shown at least recently that the "Ruff system" seems to work pretty darn well for Reimer, an aging backup...so this is on UPL) Change nothing else except add in those extra stops, and their goal differential goes from bottom half of the league, and moves to postive in the same neighborhood as teams like Edmonton and St. Louis, and not too far behind Florida and Toronto.
-Dylan Cozens happened (although its been 'fixed'): He not only continued to make mistakes that led to more goals being allowed vs scored when he was on the ice, a minus 13 through only 61 games. Took a lot of shots himself, passing up plays to his teammates while shooting a team worst (among any forwards with over 50 shots not named Beck Malenstyn) 7.9%. He was practically useless on the PP but he kept on getting time there.
Since he left, the team is playing at a 109 point pace, has a positive 5 goal differential in 15 games, and players 'below' him on the roster that have played much better (and much better than HIM) since he left while moving up the depth chart to take his minutes.
-Jack Quinn happened: Negative goal differential when he is on the ice. Worst +/- on the team (-20, while not getting many defensive challenging matchups while other forwards on the same team, playing in front of the same goalie and same D-men are double digit pluses). Negative Corsi, Negative Fenwick, Negative shots for, negative expected goals, negative scoring chances, WAY negative high danger chances. Won't go to the net (lowest percentage of shots from the high danger area, he has 8 (EIGHT) shots from the front of the net, Tuch for example has 58), invisible unless he has the puck put on his stick by a teammate, can't create his own shot. Basically he makes almost everyone he plays with worse, and then when he leaves their line they get better.
Thats all I have. Remove/fix those 3 things and you have a team with holes, but one that is likely much higher in the standings.
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2 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:
I think Krebs could be a good 3C with Greenway on his wing. A scoring winger on the opposite wing would be ideal IMO.
They actually have played together a handful of games last year. I don't remember anything particular about it, but their numbers are 'in the middle' together (not good, but not bad.)
If you want to look at it even though the sample size is small, when they were linemates and on the ice they were -2 in goal differential. Krebs without Greenway was +5. Greenway without Krebs was +8. So in that one area they were better apart, not together. Again, small sample size, we dont' know who the other winger was, and Krebs seems to be playing differently this year than last year.
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5 minutes ago, dudacek said:
*(Unrelated, but an interesting discovery: the Sabres were 22nd in goals for at Christmas time. They've been the league's best offence since — from 2.82 g/GP up to 3.64. Not sure what's changed, but that's over 42 games, a full half-season sample)
Probably a few factors but I personally put it mostly on one thing: The availability and health of Tage and Dahlin.
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10 minutes ago, John Tucker said:
Agreed... even with Norris out, the forwards seem to be playing better with the subtraction of Cozens.
As I posted in another thread....Krebs stepping up into a bigger role with 'top 6' wingers....he is taking advantage of it.
Krebs is putting up better numbers in that role (albeit very limited games) than Cozens did when he was in that role.
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I think Gretzky was a better overall player, but Ovechkin is the best goal scorer I have ever seen. In terms of pure ability to score goals, Ovi leads, followed closely by Lemieux, the little I remember of Bossy, and possibly Brett Hull (at his peak).
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9 minutes ago, EM88 said:
Let us see if it continues with Krebs the rest of the year. Another handful of games will make the very small sample size slightly larger and somewhat more meaningful to evaluate.
It appears Lindy finally got frustrated enough with Quinn so he took him off of McLeods line and put him with Krebs toward the end of the game.
If Krebs is stuck with Quinn the rest of the season, his numbers may not look so good going forward.
The Quinn factor may be an issue.....Krebs has 'momentum', if nothing else, Quinn is this years "momentum killer." He drags down the analytics of anyone he is stuck with...
McLeod was one of the better players in tems of both possession and production per minute on this team. For the greater part of the last 2 weeks, he ended up with Quinn on his wing and his analytics plummeted, they went from good without Quinn to really really bad with Quinn.
Then last night, sometime in the first period, Ruff remoed Quinn from McLeod's line and guess what? McLeods analytics and possesson numbers skyrocketed immediately without Quinn on his line.
A note on Quinn....his analytics and possession numbers haven't always been bad. 2 years ago they were pretty decent. Earlier this year they were OK (not great but at least not terrible), but as this year has gone on, some of them have gotten worse and worse.
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2 minutes ago, dudacek said:
Saw somewhere that his analytics were almost perfect last night.
Over 90% SAT and 100 xGoals?
Maybe I read it wrong, but I saw 100% shots (but that was simply 2 to 0), and expected goals just barely above 50 (53.96, 0.18 for, 0.15 against)
His line won Corsi 10 to 3, and Fenwick 5 to 2, But scoring chances and high danger chances were even 2 for/2 against and 1 for/ 1 against.
Good numbers, very good still for one game.
OT: Erie County to allow control of Key Bank Center to revert to the City of Buffalo at the end of the current lease
in The Aud Club
Posted
Your above argument is one side of it. Of course the other side of it is that a lot of people right across the border are Sabres fans. The truth, I believe, is someplace in the middle.
I have brought up on this forum in the past, we live near Lewiston, just a couple miles from the Queenston-Lewiston Bridge. We can see Canada walking down the street. We make frequent trips into Canada (Niagara Falls, St. Catherines, etc) because its a 10 minute drive for us. Just casually walking around the outlet mall in St. Catherines, you can see more Sabres jerseys on people than just about any other team other than the Leafs (and its pretty close).
Now, those members on this board that DO live in Niagara Falls on the Canadian side..or Welland, or St. Catherines can speak to this better than I can. I am not saying the are 100% Sabres country..but rather being close to the border does in fact make more Sabres fans there than in most other areas of Canada.
I'm not sure there is any data on this...but I think if you took a survey of the 250,000-or-so people living between the border and the Welland Canal, I would think you have a good percentage of Sabres Fans. Not as much as in Erie county, but more than in the areas west of that.
Now, younger fans? probably not, but older fans, especially those 45+...I think a lot of them are. When they were growing up as kids, Sabres games were broadcast over local channels (NBC/Channel 2 in Buffalo), and that signal, the games, were well able to be watched by those people, as well as they get Buffalo sports talk crystal clear on the radio.
Again, does that mean they are just as much fans of the Sabres as people across the border? Probably not, but to say they 'generally people who don't give a flying ***** about the Sabres and just want to see NHL hockey", I think that is exaggerating the lack of interest in the Sabres a bit too much.