mjd1001
-
Posts
6,054 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by mjd1001
-
-
16 minutes ago, inkman said:
Without knowing much at all I’d peg him around $5-6 mill per.
I'd say about $5m per year with the current cap. With the cap going up, getting signed to $5m per year a year or two ago will be equal to $6m per year next year and the few years after.
As for is this a 'career year' or is this a legit step forward with more opportunity? The analytics dept and the pro scouts know more than I do, I'll leave that up to them.
I would say I think you can make the case for him being the 4th best player on the team this year...after Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin (put in him the battle for 4th with Zucker)
Also, I dont' worry too much about 'overpaying' him. When you go back to the Tage and Cozens contracts, they were paid about 8.6% of the cap the year they were signed. It looks like a good signing for Tage, bad one for Cozens for the Sabres. A 'comparable' contract (same percentage of cap) starting next year would be about $8.2m per year. I don't think he is getting that. If they give him $7.5+ or over, yeah, come back to me and I'll question it, but I don't think things will be in that range.
I'm not saying to overpay him just because you can....but if you worry he'll be another 'Cozens', well, then you are never going to pay anyone anymore.
-
20 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:
You are probably right. This will mean that McLeod starting the year as #3 will be somewhat of a moot point as he will need to be elevated at various times when Norris is injured and Kulich, due to youth, struggles.
My hope is that Kulich is the young centre that we can use in a package, along with Power/Byram and possibly other pieces, to get a veteran centre. That is not a likely outcome though.
Maybe we have a #1 line (Thompson as the center...or if Thompson is on wing, whoever his center is...it can change)...and then the #2 and #3 centers after that line are basically split. Meaning there is not 'set' #2 or #3 guy. Going into a game the plan is for them to get even ice time, and if one line is playing better, that game they get more ice time and they are the #2 line for that game, but that can change day to day.
Who is the #2, or #3 center I think is more of a discusssion for the fans. My opinion is Tage can be Center or Wing. His production, his defensive play..its about the same this season wherever he plays (honestly, I think his numbers this year are slightly better at Center, but whatever). But when you look at Thompson having the ability to play center if needed, and Norris, and Kulich, and Mcleod, and then even Krebs at #4 with a possibility to not be out of place at #3...you have options there to mix and match.
Sure, if a good center was available I'd jump at him, but I think this team needs more focus in other areas. Tage/Norris/Kulich/Mcleod/Krebs....mix and match them how you will, you have something to work with there. Now find some better wingers to play with them.
-
1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:
I'm not making excuses for Adams's general failure to properly do his job the past two off-seasons. That said, it is unlikely another team is going to hand us their bona-fide top-6 centre, regardless of any overpay that we might be willing to offer (I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it is unlikely).
McLeod is 4 months younger than Norris, and was drafted one year later and 21 spots deeper into the draft. Prior to the second half of this season, McLeod has not been used or viewed as a top-6 centre. Even this year it has been more out of necessity that he has been elevated. He's playing at a 52 point pace; I'm not sure that is sustainable, but then this is the 1st opportunity he has been given to have this kind of season, let alone to sustain it.
Norris, from his arrival in the NHL, was projected to be a top-6 centre. He has played at around a 54 point pace per 82 games; as we know, he has had injury issues.
In an ideal world we get a legit #1 centre this off-season. If not, an alternative would be for Thompson to return to that role. If we don't acquire a legit top-6 centre and we don't move Thompson back from wing, then my opinion is that we have a bigger issue with Norris as our #1 centre than we have with McLeod as our #2. There are 6-7 teams currently in a playoff position, who don't have a #2 centre producing at McLeod's current level. There are no teams in a playoff spot with a #1 centre in Norris's mold, who plays at a 55 point pace over 82 games, but typically only plays about 60 games per year.
If we do add a legit #1 centre this off-season (or if Thompson returns to that role), there might be no good reason to distinguish between Norris and McLeod as #2 or #3.
I'll repeat what I have said before....how many minutes do you want/project McLeod to be playing going forward? He has been averaging about 19 minutes per game the last couple months and not doing all that poorly.
There are some variations, but when you look around the league, a typical 2nd line player/center gets 17 minutes per game. A 3rd line center gets 14.5-15.5 minutes. Do you want him in the first category or the 2nd?
If you are happy with his play and want him to get closer to 17 minutes per game, then he IS your 2nd line center.
-
1
-
1
-
-
22 minutes ago, Weave said:
Yesterday’s game was the first I’ve watched in quite awhile. By my eye, Bernard-Docker looked pretty good.
I need to see more obviously as many of us do. I didn't focus on him at all, but the little that I did notice him on the ice, it seemed like the team was chasing in their own end and allowing a few chances against when he was on the ice. Again, its only 2 games and limited minutes, and even if that is true it might not be his fault. Just I haven't noticed much positive yet...but i'm hopeful?
-
3 minutes ago, inkman said:
Forwards being bad at defense also an issue.
I'm not an NHL coach or scout obviously, and a lot of people know more than I do, and I miss some things too. With all that said, on the occasion I get to watch the replays of goals allowed or scoring chances allowed.....or better yet listen to someone who IS a former NHL person (player or coach) break down some of those things....I usually come to one conclusion:
The Defense isn't good on this team, but they look worse than they actually are because of failed support or positional mistakes made by the forwards.
With that said, Samuelsson has regressed over the past year or so, and Power hasn't taken a step-up in his defensive play, Bryum may be average-to-below average in his own end. But Dahlin is better than some think, and the 3rd pair guys (Clifton, Bryson) aren't good but they aren't worse than a typical 3rd pairing. The D needs some work or improvement, but I don't think they, as a group, are as awful as some think.
-
14 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:
I didn’t say he was. I’m saying no more giving guys a chance. Get proven producers for top six roles. One good season is not consistent enough. Example: Cozens
When Cozens scored 31 goals it still wasn't a good season overall.
Mcleod is on Pace for about 10 goals less. But he's a positive player. Cozens wasn't. McLeods underlying metrics are good, Cozens underlying metrics were not. When people join McLeod's line, Their underlying metrics get better, it was the opposite with Cozens.
Cozens had 31 goals, but almost everything else about that season was not a good season, his overall play and his numbers did back it up show it was actually a below average season. A huge myth that many Sabres fans have led themselves to believe was Cozens actually had a good season, it really wasn't.
That is not the case with McLeod this year. His season is 'solid' across the board in all aspects of play. Cozens has never had a season like that.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:
Bernard Docker point per game RHD for Buffalo. We won the trade 😝😁
I don't really know what to expect out of him. I think he's basically on a tryout to see if he fits on the roster next year.
-
11 minutes ago, kas23 said:
The question becomes, is McLeod good enough to hold down the 2C position with the right wings?
Overall I think he is good enough to get 2C minutes. Now his production...what do you want from a 2C? If you want 25-30 goals and 60+ points, he might not get you that. But I think you are looking for overall play. He certainly does give your some scoring, so to me, yeah, I'll take the 15-20 goals and 40-45 points out of him (hes pacing for more this year), but I'll take that kind of prodution out of a player like him. I've been saying that all year long, even when he was only getting 12-14 minutes per game and I thought he should have a lot more.
When you say #2C, are you comfortable with him getting 17+ minutes of ice time per night? Because THAT is what a #2 center gets (give or take a minute). Yep. I don't want him getting much less than that.
If you don't think he's a #2C, the question is how many minutes do you want him playing? He is a 2 way guy, he's a plus player on a minus team, he is pacing now for 20+ goals and those 50 points. Can he do it again? Maybe, maybe not, but he is now. He IS a center.
So how many minutes do you want him to play? Do you want to limit him to 12-14 minutes per game like he was getting earlier in the year? If you only want him playing that few of minutes, then he's your #3 guy and not on special teams. If you want him playing more minutes, then that is a #2 guy.
-
3
-
-
20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Only took the coaches 4 months to realize that.
McLeod has been getting over 20 minutes of ice time the last 5 games in a row, with a couple games approaching 23 minutes.
His ice time has been increasing quite a bit since January:
16:01 in October
15:30 in November
14:38 in December
16:52 in January
18:53 in February
19:21 in March
He's on a 21 goal, 31 assist, 52 point, +11 pace. Had he been given more ice time earlier in the year instead of Cozens, McLeods numbers would likely be even a bit better.
-
3
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:
Game's half over.
4 SOG
And that is with them having 2 powerplays also?
Some teams can get 4 shots on a single powerplay, sometimes in the first minute.
-
Being outshot 18-4. At least their shooting percentage is good, right?
-
3 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Lindy said Quinn was scratched yesterday because he missed a team meeting.
On the road, how does that even happen? He forgot? He didn’t know? He is Disconnected? No friends looking out for him? Drunk? Sleeping? Sick? Doesn’t care? Hurt?
I don’t get it, but it looks like they are frustrated and quitting, like last year.
I was kinda hoping it was more of a performance issue accountability.
Like, Quinn doesn't bring anything except for goal scoring, Yet his last goal was 13 games ago, and he has 1 goal in his last 21. Or he hasn't been a plus in +/- for 11 games. -11 in his last nine games.
And, if he DID miss a meeting, how the heck do you miss a meeting when your play is what I just listed above?
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, mansquito said:
Discussion; some of his flaws should have been fixed by the goaltending coach at this point in his career. He comes out of the net and often can't find his way back. Leaving an empty net. His numbers tell the story, and most of the goals he let's in a competent NHL goalie would save. Whether it's mental or lack of talent, He should have been put on waivers. No one picking him up would tell the real story of how others view his play.
I think he has the talent to be an NHL goaltender.
I think this year he is having a really bad year. There are some that are saying he is being hung out by the team in front of him. There is SOME truth to that, but there are way too many times he needs to be making more saves. Every goal is not black and white....there are some goals that even the best goalie in the world is not going to make a save on everytime....but they will make saves on them 50-60% of the time. UPL is making saves on seemingly 25% of those.
I don't need him to make every save when a quality NHL shooter is one on one with him, but he certainly needs to make more than he currently is.
Goaltending, in particular UPL, to me is the 2nd biggest reason for this team being as low as they are in the standings (Behind the collective early/mid season play of Cozens/Quinn, and just ahead of the utter failure of the 4th line giving up so many goals when their only job is to NOT give up goals.)
I'm don't want him jettisoned from the team yet, but he needs to be better next year.
-
1
-
-
It was a pretty bad game all around for the forward lines.
I looked up the numbers that were just released (and yes, these are just numbers, without knowing zone starts, who was matched up against, who, etc)
-Best forward line was Benson/Krebs/Malenstyn (when he played with them). Positive Corsi, Positive Fenwick. They took 3 shots and allowed none against.
-Lafferty/Kozak/Malenstyn (Malenstyn split between 2 lines), was 2nd best as far as the numbers go. Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring chances, shots...pretty much even for vs against.
-Greenway/Zucker/Tuch (I'm not sure who played center there, but they were on the ice together for over 8 minutes) and McLeod, Thompson, Peterka were pretty much negative across the board. (McLeod's positioning was pretty bad on that first goal, the goal scorer in the slot was his guy, he drifted to the side of the net where 2 defenders were already there. That one is on McLeod, not the D-men, but it hurts the D-mens numbers).
Individually, Lafferty, Power, Malenstyn, and Byram, Kozak and Zucker were all well into the positive territory in xgf vs against. Almost everyone else was negative, with Bryson, Clifton, Samuelsson, Tuch, Dahlin, Peterka, and Mcleod being at the bottom of the list.
Again, just numbers...https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20242025&game=21106
Again, UPL didn't help the team. The 2nd goal was him being 'leaky' and the 3rd goal...well, he was screened really bad but at the same time he got beat cleanly. I can't say its his fault, but I want him, at this point in his career, to start to find ways of tracking the puck better so he can make a few more saves on those screened shots.
-
1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:
Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Ruff coaches a good structure, and every starting goalie just happens to have a down year when they play for him.
Except Vanacek had better save percentage/numbers in the 2 years under Ruff in New Jesey compared to what he has done since then. Niemi and Lehtonen where his 2 goalies most used in Dallas and they were about the same, or slightly worse after Ruff left.
I'm not saying Ruff may have a more complicated, or worse system for D-men to master and that it may or may not hurt goalies. The overall numbers for many goalies, especially in NJ are a bit worse under Ruff, But saying every starting goalie under him has down years..just not true.
-
1 hour ago, kas23 said:
It’s interesting, the first line and top D pairing playing a fairly big chunk of the game. It’s far from an even distribution. So, the remainder of the lines and D pairings must be well below average (ie barely NHL players) to bring the team down the standings to the bottom 5 worse teams. Are they truly this bad? Imagine if the rest of the team was just plain average. We’d be fighting for a playoff spot.
The 4th line this year has been awful. At least in terms of production and goals allowed. As much as people complained about Girgensons and Okposo, for the last few years they were even, sometimes a bit positive, sometimes a bit negative. But this 4th line has been bad. Lafftert, Malenstyn and whoever else is with them on a line are a -18 goal differential through this part of the season...on pace for about a -25 goal differential for the season. The 4th line the last 2 years COMBINED is about a -5 goal differential.
The Cozens line (usually with Quinn) has always been an issue also. We have gone over it on this board before, Every single forward has better numbers without Cozens than with, even when you take a deep dive into analytics like Corsi, Fenwick, shots allowed, scoring chances, expected goals, etc. But just this year, Cozens, Quinn, or when the 2 of them together, they are/were a collective -22 goal differential.
When Tuch, Thompson, or both are on the ice, the team is a collective +14 in goal differential (not counting PP, even strength only)
McLeod's line (various teammates) is a +4.
So yeah....as far as forwards go, the 4th line and the Cozens/Quinn lines have sunk this team. Tage, Tuch, and the Mcleod lines (with various teamates) are a +18 combined in goal differential. The 4th line and Cozens/Quinn combined for a -47.
In terms of D-men, Dahlin carries everyone he is with. He's probably best with Byram, but not as drastically as many think.
When Bryam is on the ice without Dahlin, the teams goal differential is -11. Clifton without Dahlin -6. Bryson without Dahline -3. Samuelsson without Dahlin -1, Power without Dahlin -9.
Of all the D-men, Jokiharju has the best deep analytics and the best goal differntial with or without Dahlin. He was positive with Dahlin, positive without Dahlin, and his deeper stats like Fenwich, x goals, corsi were positive with Dahlin and close to even without him.
Of course...these numbers alone do not prove who is good and who is bad, but they are a starting point. And while not proof alone, they do tend to 'verify' what many of us see with out eyes when we watch the games.
-
1
-
-
On 3/22/2025 at 2:07 PM, kas23 said:
I just don’t get the disconnect. Dhalin anchors the 5th best pairing in the NHL, then why do we suck so much. We are 12th in GF/G. Offensively, we are not that bad. Do we really need a Dahlin for every defensive pair? Because our goaltending by GA/G and save% is garbage. We rank #1 in penalty minutes. Is this it? “Soft” teams like VGK, DAL, and EDM are at the bottom.
Not really a disconnect at all. Dahlin is close to a supertar level D-man no matter who he plays with. The rest of the pairings, which account for 55%-65% of the ice time, are below average.
And the forwards. Tuch and Thompson anchor a top line that is also one of the best in the league (there was a discussion about that last week I think). The 2nd line (or the 3rd...whichever one McLeod isn't on) and the 4th lines have performed near the bottom of the league.
Add to that well below league average goaltending metrics, and there you go.
Great first pair D-man with a very good-to-great first line. McLeods anchors a 'decent' line whatever he is on.....The other 2 forwards lines have been bad and the rest of the Defense is below average or even worse.
-
2
-
-
11 minutes ago, Thorner said:
Dahlin’s pair is going to be at that level if his partner is above replacement level
We know this because that’s the surface Byram eclipses while removed
Yeah.
According to the 'fancy stats', Dahlin makes everyone better (including Bryam). Bryam does not make Dahlin better, nor does Bryam make anyone else better.
For those who care about the deep dive numbers, Dahlin and Byram over the past 2 seasons playing together have a +3% relative corsi, +4% relative Fenwick, +6% relative shots for vs against, +12.7% relative goals for vs against, and a +1% relative scoring chances for vs against.
But ANYONE playing with Dahlin has that. If you look at everyone else combined with Dahlin besides Byram, +5% relative corsi, +5% relative Fenwisk, +5.5% relative shots for vs against, -2% goals for vs against, +3.5% relative scoring chances for vs against.
As far as everyone else playing with Bryam without Dahlin (Bryam as the lead-guy on the pair): -4% relative corsi, -4.5% relative Fenwick, -4% relative shots for vs against, -3% relative goals for vs against, and -7% scoring chances for vs against.
So, Byram with Dahlin has a much better relative goals for, a slightly better relative shots for....but is actually worse in terms of Corsi, Fenwick, and scoring chances. Looks like it kinda 'evens out' to me.
To me the eye test Dahlin makes everyone he plays with better. The deep numbers pretty much say that also, and that him paired with Bryam isn't really much better than him paired with anyone else.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Mr. Allen said:
This is where I struggle though. I know getting a top 3-5 pick could help this team out big time. But could this team benefit more from playing great and winning the rest of the way? Build confidence for next year.
This team has talent. Everyone can see that. They just aren’t getting something. Maybe they find that if they play great hockey the rest of the season. And that, in my opinion, is worth more than a player we could get in the top 5.It appears picks 1-4 are a step up from anyone in the draft.
Then after that, 5-8 are close and then another step down.
You certainly want 1-4 in this draft, but they aren't 4 superstart level players. If we are worried bout a draft pick, I'd WANT top 4, but just don't fall past pick #8.
-
Going to the supermarket. I normally use the self checkout, but when I have a coupons or vouchers for something free, I'll go the express line. So, approaching the express line from one direction, making eye contact with the 'little old lady' coming from the other direction. She is going to get there before me, she probably moves faster than she has in the last 20 years to get there.
Then once she gets there, she has more than the 12 items they allow. She pulls them out of the cart as slow as possible. Talks to the cashier when she is scanning. Seemingly every other item asks to make sure she is getting the right price (Are those bananas really that expensive?) Then when the girl is done checking her out and tells here the amount....she brings her purse up on the little ledge, unzips it, starts digging through it...pulls out a wallet...opens the wallet....asks the cashier again how much it is....then opens the wallet and pulls out cash...then opens up the change purse...starts counting out dimes, nickels, and pennies...gives the money to the cashier....the cashier tells her she didn't give her the right amount....so the little old lady asks again ( for the 3rd or 4th time what the amount is), after hearing it there is 5 seconds of silence, she then counts out the correct amount of change. The cashier gives her the receipt..but the little old lady doesn't move so my order of 4 things can start, she stares at the receipt....asking another question about it, questions the price of something AFTER she has finished the checkout (if there is a mistake at this point, please move along to the customer service desk the cashier cannot help you with it)....then proceeds to again not get out of the way...puts her purse back up on the ledge, carefully folds the receipt...places it in some deep dark area of her purse that takes here 20 seconds to find....and then FINALLY moves along.
So yeah, make SURE you get to that checkout line before me....heaven forbid you have to wait an extra 30-45 seconds for me to complete my entire transaction.....but once you get there first, make sure you show you have NO CONCERN at all for anyone other than yourself while I wait 5-10 minutes for you to buy your veggies, candy bars, and 5 different types of cat treats.
Then on the way out, 1 spot away from me the retired-looking guy thinks his pickup truck is so important and so valuable that he parks it sideways across 3 spots, seeing him get out notice a spot on it and starts rubbing it with his thumb to make sure not only does everyone notice how wonderful and special his pickup truck it, but he has to make sure no one see is with even a spec of dirt on it.
Its frustrating how a simple trip the the grocery store can get me frustrated with other people so much.
-
14 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I think it shows what a small role the Donnybrook plays in today’s game.
Id bet good money the Sabres were nowhere near the top prior to piling up 114 minutes in their last 3 games, 83 of them versus Detroit.
That’s more than 1/10 of their total minutes for the season in a single game.
If you took out that one game vs detroit and pretended it didn't exist, they'd still be 5th in terms of PIM per game.
Take out the last 3 and they are still 5th in PIM per game.
I didn't realize they were ranked that highly though.
The most interesting is in how many misconducts they have, amost double the 2nd place team. Sabres with 12 misconducts....Chicago and Winnipeg tied for 2nd with 7 each. There are 5 teams that have none...and 19 of the 32 teams have 2 or less.
-
1
-
-
11 hours ago, dudacek said:
Any interest in veteran former captain who can put up 30/30, always scores on the PP, is one of the league's best at faceoffs, has had a positive X goals for 7 straight years, and has never had a negative Corsi in his career?
John Tavares is available this summer for nothing but cash.
The tought of Tavares enterered my mind but I didn't think much of him. He would be 'interesting'.
He was never really fast, but when I watch him now, well, he just doesn't play a fast game. But his skills are still mostly there.
I would not be upset with a 3 year deal, no longer. The problem is, there are probabably teams that want him and can offer more of a recent history of winning/being a contender that would do the same.
The Sabres don't have a ton of cap space like they did in the past, but they aren't up against the cap (yet) either. Maybe you offer him $1-$2m more per year on a 3 year deal than anyone else...and see if he bites? Its tough, he is going to be 35 when next season starts...and about 1200 games played.
-
Providing they don't do the near-impossible and make the playoffs......
The team plays well, about .500 hockey while outscoring their opponents along the way. They would be even better except for a few awful calls by the refs and some minor injury issues along the way, but the team looks really good and plays well overall.
But, Nashville, Seattle, Philly and Pittsburgh play just well enough that the Sabres finishin 3rd last, assuring them of a top 4 pick.
Tuch gets to 30. Tage gets to 45, maybe gets hot and has a look at 50.
-
1
-
-
28 minutes ago, JohnC said:
I believe that fighting should be banned from the game. (I'm aware that it is a very minority here.) However, as you point out, the last two games from a style of play perspective is noticeably different. You can't play this tougher brand of game unless you have the players who are suited to play this more rugged game. Zucker, Tuch, Greenway, Dahlin, Benson etc. provide a better roster mix compared to when the roster is too loaded with young players who lack the physical maturity to play a harder toe to toe game.
I have been a consistent critic of the current GM's ability to construct a roster with the right mix of players. Hopefully, he is belatedly recognizing that deficiency with his recent contract extensions. There is still more to do on that roster balance issue but it should be achievable if there is a desire to do so.
I agree with you. I hardly ever watch a game, especially a high scoring game or a win and think "That game was OK but it really needed a few fights."
Since fighting is still part of the game, I do wish the Sabres had someone a bit better at it as more of a way to deter it though.
Movies / TV Shows - I Have Watched / Plan To Watch
in The Aud Club
Posted
I actually think the opposite on Reacher. Season 1 was good to me, Season 2 not so much. I think the larger cast made it worse. Season 3 so far I think is as good as season one, maybe better.