mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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1 hour ago, Taro T said:
Would really like to know how the people deciding what is high danger are making that evaluation. Expect that there really should be a further deliniation between a high danger chance and a high high danger chance. Am not seeing nearly as many high high danger shots against as there were in the past.
I agree. I haven't really found any definitive metrics of what counts as a high danger chance vs a scoring chance vs a shot.
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25 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
Hmmm. He is still knocking the rust off but you see nothing good?
I see smart and heady plays . Like using his body to block out opponents, taking smart angles to the puck, holding and protecting the puck instead of panic and coughing it up - little things that do not get on the scoresheet.
So far I am happy with him.
I know it's early but I actually don't really see much. I watched the last couple of games and he just doesn't seem that noticeable to me.
And as far as him making good plays with the puck? I guess so. I don't see a lot of bad stuff. But again I don't see him doing things that any defenseman should not be doing.
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2 minutes ago, shrader said:
I don't think it is even slightly political, but feel free to delete it if it is...
We are rapidly approaching the end of my least favorite time of the year, election sign season. This morning a new one popped up all over the place that says "No tax hike Mike". So will Mike raise taxes or not? I have absolutely no clue from that sign. Also, who is Mike?
I kind of agree with what you're saying in the large picture. I never understood the signs on the front lawn.
I can't imagine not knowing who I'm going to vote for and then seeing a sign on the front lawn that tells me to vote...that got me thinking... "You know what? That random person who I don't know likes that candidate so that must be the one I'm going to go with!"
I guess the theory I heard is the more signs on the lawn seems to drum up identification or a groundswell of support for a certain candidate. But still... I don't understand how that actually changes someone's mind... Or get someone to vote for them when they weren't going to vote at all.
It's just more sign pollution... And general pollution when they go flying all over the place on a windy day.
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I didn't look up the stats first and then draw a conclusion.. I did it the other way around.
When I watch the PK, I don't really notice that much different than last year.
Yes, they've had a game or two where they've looked really good but they did last year. Also. Overall when you considered the whole season I don't see much difference in them positionally.
Basically when they maintain their positioning and don't chase the puck they're very good. Once they start going to the boards that's when they get bad. But that was the same both last year and this year.
So I know the goaltending has been better but when I looked up the numbers in the initial post that's what surprised me... Just how much better it was on the penalty kill.
And for everyone saying that the penalty kill is a lot better... My initial eye test doesn't really notice that and the numbers don't really notice that also.
High danger chances are legitimate scoring chances from in front and close to the net. Scoring chances don't have to be an official shot on goal but they also have to do with not just shots but legitimate chances to score. The team is giving up just as many of those if not more than last year.
Of course it is early... Both for their overall effectiveness and the deep dive into the analytics. Another 10 to 15 games and we should have a clearer picture.
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Why is the PK so much better this year? Except for one single aspect, its not.
Last year (per 2 minutes PK 4 on 5):
-1.68 shots allowed, 0.24 expected goals allowed, 1.70 scoring chances allowed, 0.71 high danger chances allowed.
This year (per 2 minutes PK):
-1.86 shots allowed, 0.28 expected goals allowed, 2.05 scoring chances allowed, 0.80 high danger chances allowed.
So far per PK, this years PK is allowing more shots, more 'expected goals', more 'scoring chances' and more 'high danger chances' (better quality shots from the prime scoring areas. In every metric that can be measured, the PK is kinda the same as last year, but slightly worse in all those areas.
Why are they the top rated PK then? The goalies.
Last year: .830 saves percentage short handed
This year: .943 save percentage short handed.
So again, the PK "looks" better this year but the numbers show the skaters aren't really playing much different. They are allowing the same (or more) number of shots. Same (or more) shots from the prime scoring areas. What we think of as 'good PK' is really just the goalies making a lot more saves than last year.
The good news...the goalies ARE better than last year on the PK. The bad news....its is unlikely their PK save percentage is going to stay at .943
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?season=20242025&team=BUF&stype=2
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=BUF
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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:
Truthfully?
I see some good with Buffalo. They certainly are a better checking team and the defense doesn't make me want to gouge my soul out. Kesselring is as advertised which I love. Finally prospects don't have roster spots unless injuries occur. The PK deserves praise. Lyon and to an extent Ellis and potentially Luukkonen have been solid to really good.
I can't get a feeling for Kesserling at all yet. Like nothing good or bad.
Maybe thats a bad thing in that I don't notice him making good plays. Maybe thats a good thing that I don't notice him making bad plays.
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I can't find the link now but I think Elliot Friedman mentioned in his 32 thoughts a couple days ago that the number to keep Tuch in Buffalo is $11.5m per year.... And that is what he is considering a hometown discount.
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58% of points (.580) is usually the accepted magic number to get you to the playoffs.
Some years it might be a little less, some years a little bit more, but 58% is where you want to be.
Play at that level the whole year until the last month. Then in the last month of the season if you need a little bit more you'll have to play better. But.. to see if this team is playing well or not, can they maintain that 58 number? And can they get to positive goal differential overall?.
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9 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:
Below is a snippet of McLeod for just October 2024 vs 2025 - 5v5. Eleven games vs. ten, but a higher XGF, and a higher XGF%. More Shots for and SF% is better. Actual Goals against is 2X (concerning?), but GF is ~60% more. My observation is they are driving play.
I'm not worried about October vs October.
I am comparing him now to his entire year last year. You don't want/need last October's McLeod, you need last Seasons Mcleod...and he simply is not playing as well now as he was for the year as a whole last year (he's also partially getting paid for his performance the entire year last year, not October. And again, its not just the mistakes he is making, his mistakes have come in closer games that have cost the Sabres goals. The goals allowed stats above you posted show that. What they do not show is that not only was he on the ice for those goals, his specific play, not his teammates, was directly responsible for many of the goals against.
Trust me, I like him as a player. I was one of the leaders on this forum pounding the table to extend him as I thought he was one of the top 5 or 6 players on the team last year. I just am not seeing it this year (yet). I don't think he is a 'bad' or 'overrated' player. I'm just saying he needs to be better than he is now and he is one of the players that is noticably playing worse now than he did for most of last year.
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33 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:
Are you factoring in that last year, he played 3rd line 5v5 verses this year playing a true second line? Which means his level of competition is much higher. And how does his offensive production compare to last year? I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the chemistry of McCleod with Tuch and Doan. I was an advocate of having Tuch moved to the first line after the injury to Norris but now I want to see our second line continue to flourish.
Last year as the season went on he moved 'up' to a 2nd line role. Just before Cozens was traded, he was getting 2nd line minutes. After Cozens was traded, he was getting some nights first line minutes with 2nd line assignments.
He also this year has been up and down in terms of 'responsibility'
Shot answer, I did not factor in the exact competiton becasue that is really hard to do. Longer answer, there may some difference in the weighting of his competition/assignement, but it isn't a direct "one role this year vs a totally different role all of last year", and even if it was, the numbers are still way down.
But above all, as I said in a previous post, I am noticing by watching the games mistakes he is making this year that he didn't make as often last year. Just my opinion.....sample size is really small yet.
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Its look like 'no' right now.
They are tied for 20th-26th in the league in point percentage.
They are 21st in the league in goal differential (per game)
My own personal 'eye test' opinion doesn't tell me they are that much better than other teams around them near the bottom of the standings (Anaheim, Boston, Minnesota, Seattle, Chicago, Rangers, Kings)
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12 hours ago, Sidc3000 said:
He is no good to the Sabres if that’s the case. If he isn’t right then he shouldn’t be playing at all. Give him a leave of absence for the season and let him take care of her
As far as Dahlin goes....there isn't a huge sample size and I'm just going to quote a couple simple analytics, but they may be an indication of what we are seeing:
Last year with Dahlin on the ice even strength:
26.6 shots allowed per 60, 26.8 scoring chances allowed per 60, 10.7 high danger chances per 60. Team GAA 3.00. 3.07 expected goals alllowed per 60.
He was a +6 in on ice even strength goal differential last year for the entire year.
This year with Dahlin on the ice even strength:
31.3 shots allowed per 60, 29.6 scoring chances allowed per 60, 14.7 high danger chances per 60. Team GAA 4.22. 3.85 expected goals allowed per 60.
He is a -9 in even strength goal differential this year through just 11 games.
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1 hour ago, kas23 said:
Agree on most of these, but the trade for McLeod has been great so far. Disagree he’s been “bad this year”. While maybe not a 2nd line center, he has 7 points in 11 games and is at least even in +/- at 0.He has made a lot of mistakes he didn't make last year.
Going into last night, a few of us have pointed out in GDTs he just seemed unaware of things around him that have caused problems in other game. Not always showing up in the numbers/analytics, but it has been noticable.
Then last night, he played the zone entry on the First Boston PP goal pretty badly (he was out of position), and he had the giveaway on the other Boston goals.
One of the simplest ways to look at him...this year when he is on the ice even strength, The team is allowing a goal every 11.2 minutes. Not only is that the worst among forwards that take a regular shift, but it is drastic drop-off from last season, where it was a goal allowed every 18.5 mins. (with similar usage)
I'm not saying he is hot garbage out there, but he has been in my opinion below average mostly due to mental mistakes that didn't happen nearly as much last year. By far and away I thought he was the best defensive forward on the team. This year, in terms of positioning and reliabilty, Krebs is outperforming him in THAT aspect of the game.
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9 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:
I’m not trying to spin a positive narrative. Genuinely asking…did the Sabres get points in seven games out of eight at any time last season?
They had 12 points in 7 games in February.
18 points in 10 games toward the end of last year.
Just about every year they have a streak or two as good (or better) than they have been on lately.
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I keep hearing 'but they got a point' or 'they saved a point'...yeah I get it.
But the realy is....3 straight games a team in your conference gained a point on you.
Get to 95 points is what they need on the season, but you aren't doing that with OT losses after losses.
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Just now, clink said:
I'd just LOVE a shortie
Thank you, Lyon 🥰
Tuch led the league in SH goals last season..
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When hes back from Injury, I'd much rather have a healthy Kozak in the lineup rather than Greenway.
Not because of that penalty he just took....just overall.
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Just now, 7+6=13 said:
However the only new player isn't only Doan. So it's not from the same players doing the same things. I'll guess we're near 40% different than last year and more from the previous.
Not quite 40%, at least among skaters.
Doan is doing well.
Timmons not much is expected from, but I'm happy with him meeting those low expectations.
Josh Dunne? not really a regular.
Norris? He looked pretty good in his 2 periods (TECHNICALLY not a newcomer)
Kesserling? way too early to tell, not even 2 full games yet.
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About time, Tuch was a clutch player the last few years, not this year. Up until now.
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Just now, 7+6=13 said:
Then there's other times they do it right, so they can do it. Frustrating how some old habits creep in and it has to be coaching or the lack of.
This is a very different team, so it can't be same old.
Maybe its just a perception thing by me. When they are losing everything looks bad I guess.
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Not sure if any analytics back this up, or if there ARE any analytics to back it up, but...
Its seems like the Sabres either take shots from WAY out that have no chance of going in, or they over-pass trying to set up the perfect goal and end up not even getting a shot off.
There just doesn't seem to be a middle ground...make a good pass to set up a good scoring chance.
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Shots are 36-16. They are likley getting 40 or more while Boston might struggle to get 20. They have to find a way to win this one.
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Doan, as I said, his entire game in the offensive zone is going to the net.
He's ALWAYS just going straight to the net.
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4 minutes ago, Cheektorado said:
I missed the first period. I watched the whole of the 2nd and hated the cheap late goal by the Bruins.
It seems to me (from what I have seen) the Sabres are way outplaying the Bruins.
How are they losing?
Questionable goaltending game by Lyon and the inability to score on a bad goalie.
And McLeod almost single handedly caused/allowed Boston's first 2 goals with bad plays.
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Zucker to IR and Kulich likely out against Utah
in The Aud Club
Posted
Buffalo is already near the top of man games lost to injury
https://nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com/2025/10/202526-NHL-man-games-lost-plots.html
(and that is before these latest 2)