mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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I think UPL now, he has done it for longer stretches in the NHL. Longevity matters to me. That doesn't mean he WILL be better than Levi in the future. Just right now, If I have to pick one of the to start 60 games in a season for me, I go with UPL.
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1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:
Adams ass is on the line here. He even said this is the last coach he will hire if it doesn’t work out.
Now is not the time for another first time coach who you hope works out.
Now is the time for a seasoned coach with a track record of success. Someone who can quickly put an effective system in place and has the respect of the players from the get go and can hold them accountable.
Peca is a promising assistant coach. He should have been moved up to the Sabres bench as an assistant this year. If he wants to be a head coach he will probably have to go down to the American League and run a bench for a couple years.
If Vegas lose in the first round I wouldn’t put it past that organization to can Cassidy. They don’t mess around.
I'm not so sure. In most cases the GM would be probably on his last chance. In most cases, fans, owners, even players would understand he is next. But, there is a good chance things are different here.
Pegula is still the owner. He has shown (to me) over and over he is more concerned with having people in power around him that he is comfortable with. People who massage his ego, people who defend him, speak highly of him, people who will 'take the bullet' for him when things are rough while he hides in Florida or on his yacht. Pegula to me will take a 'lesser' GM and give him more time if it is someone who tells him what he wants to hear.
Adams is that guy. If Pegula makes a change, he may not get that. I think that is why a coach will be let go before Adams. Pegula seemingly hand-picked Adams because he probably is a nice guy, a 'yes man'. Pegula probably spends a LOT more time in contact with the GM (A GM he likes personally) so its harder to let that GM go than a coach, or even players.
Again, maybe if the Sabres don't make the playoffs Adams will be let go. But I think it is far more likely that more trades would happen, more 'housecleaning' under the GM would occur, because Pegula simply will not hire a GM that will give him any kind of 'pushback' on making him feel good about himself. Adams doesn't seem to do that.
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4 hours ago, OverPowerYou said:
Playoff teams I would like to see lose in the first round. Boston and Vegas
Maybe Carolina so we can get Brindamour
For many, its hard to root against Boston when they are playing the Leafs...I think there are just as many people that dislike Toronto as Boston.
Plus there is one bonus for Boston winning....Even if you don't hate Toronto, lets say you are indifferent to them....having the Leafs lose in the first round....the drama, the stories, the reaction coming out of Toronto would be more than enough to entertain for the entire offseason.
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1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:
Sadly I don't think samuelsson will be in buffalo next year
Unless he gets another injury, and it becomes even more clear that is health/durability means he just won't have much of a career...unless that happens, I don't see why he wouldn't be here.
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1 hour ago, Weave said:
I don’t believe they need to be the best players as long as there are enough of them to have critical mass in the room. One or two bottom of the roster guys doesn’t create enough influence to matter. A handful of players sprinkled throughout the lineup does.
This team’s biggest mistake over the last decade has been the decision to cheap out on leadership and depend on 1 or 2 leaders, generally bottom of the lineup role players. ROR may have been the only exception.
Yeah, I guess it can be either. A guy who is a top guy, or maybe a few guys who are at least not bottom of the roster guys.
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I go back and forth on how important leadership and 'knowing how to win' actually are. Something I think it doesn't matter, others I think it does.
For the, this team has brought in veteran 'leaders' throughout the drought, but none of them were really the 'best' player (or even close to it) in the team. The young guys with 'all the talent' who are told they are the 'future of the organization' aren't likely to listen to someone who they think isn't as important as they are, or isn't as good, or isn't likely to be around for a while.
For veteran leadership to work, I think you need a guy that is at least in the same neighborhood in talent as those around him (someone who will be a top 5-6 guy on your team) AND he needs to be someone who is here on more than just a 1 or 2 year deal...in order for the 'young guys' to actually lead and follow him.
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2 hours ago, klos1963 said:
It was poor ownership(s) and poor arena planning. It's not on the city or fans.
The final year in Glendale, the Coyotes outdrew both Buffalo and Ottawa.
Hockey has been here for decades, it would have done well with an arena in the right city.
Just because 30k people voted in Tempe and the majority of those votes were against, doesn't really reflect the potential support from almost 6 million in the area.
Just been a mess from the top throughout.
Agree with all of the above.
I hate when teams get moved. Ultimately we know its many times more important what the owners want, what the league wants, what 'dollars can be made' to make billionaires even bigger billionaires.
If there ever was a 'fans bill of rights', one of the top things on it should be that no fanbase ever loses a team, no team is moved.
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1 hour ago, JohninMinn. said:
Lindy. The timing is right this time. We need a Buffalo guy. Bring in Kaner too.
I could be ok with Lindy, still not a fan of Kane.
The head coach is important. Yes, of course its important. But who is he bringing in with him as assistants may be just as important, or more important. What many are saying here, you want a head coach who is going to set a standard, make a decision to run more up tempo practices. Be a little harder on some guys. Have respect from the guys in the room. I think Ruff does all that, as well as some other coaches.
Ultimately I know the head coach is responsible for things, but i also think the power play is run more by the assistant coaches than the head coach (unless the head coach CHOOSES to step in). How the D-man play positionally is more the assistant coaches working with the players, while the head coach oversees everything. The assistant coaches are breaking down video late at night while the head coach is doing the post game press conferences or having one-on-one conversations with the guys.
Again, Yes, the head coach does those things too, but I think a great head coach can fail if he doesn't bring in good assistants. I want my head coach to be 'good' in all those things, but I would almost rather he just competent at them, but for him to set the direction for the team, set the tempo, set the expectations, and have good-to-great assistants working on the X's and O's.
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I think he took a step back overall this year. I also thin he played better the last 30 games than he did the first half+ of the season. I think he'll be fine, actually I think he'll be really good, just its going to be a gradual, slow grind to get there over the next couple of years.
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Maybe someone who is really REALLY into analytics can analyze Cozens a bit more, but to me everything I see comes down to last year him having a higher shooting percentage, this year it reverted to mean (his career average)
His ice time, his shots per game....similar. When you look at the NHL edge metrics over the last 3 years...His top skating speed, speed bursts and average skating distance are his strengths and the pretty much the same each year. His offensive zone time is below average and the same each year. Even where he TAKES his shots from is the same each year (compared to the rest of the league he REALLY likes shooting between the faceoff dots and over to the right boards 10-15 feet out), One of the biggest differences in their metrics is shooting percentage. THAT is the one thing that is different.
My worry, and my continued worry with him is he really IS playing the same game he always has. This year. Last year, The year before. There is really only one thing that was different than stands out...his shooting percentage JUST last year.
When he has ONE very good year, but that one year he has a shooting percentage of almost 15.....while his rookie year was about 7, his 2nd year about 8, this year 9...its hard for me to not think that maybe the 6-9% range is the type of player he really is...and he is a guy that consistently looks to get 200 shots a year for his ice time....200 shots times even 9% gives you 18 goals.
He is still young. He can get better in other areas of his game. But every year (including this year and last year) he looks to be a 200 shot guy, EVERY year he takes shots from the same spots on the ice. Unless he goes back to that nearly 15% shooting percentage, hes not going to be a consistent 30 goal guy for you.
The only SMALL thing supporting the concussion idea is his shooting percentage was 14.3% (in a small sample size), continuing last years trend, leading up to his concussion. It was after the concussion that it went down to 8.4% for the rest of the year.
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Maybe the new owner will move the Sabres to Arizona...
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1 minute ago, Believer said:
Total money.
still think that is way too high. As others have said, it should be at, or close to his qualifying offer. 1 year for a bout $1m. That would be about a 20% raise for him, and he hasn't even earned that yet.
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5 hours ago, sabrefanday1 said:
Best to wait and see what the new coach wants...hopefully the new coach will be one who can get the best out of his players and maybe help guys like Krebs find his game. Or, converesly, the new coach may tell KA which need to go. Krebs value is so low that it really does not matter either way. Far more important issues to be addressed for sure, Having saifd that, Vegas drafted him I believe, and they sure seem to know what they are doing, so maybe with some work from a new coach he can become a valuable asset moving forward.
I agree for the most part, except for the bolded above. Vegas made good expansion draft picks, they made trades that helped, but they have been pretty awful at drafting young guys.
The other than one guy (Nick Suzki who they traded), the most CAREER goals anyone has scored that they drafted is 29 by Cody Glass (and he pretty much is now a bust, or at least 'just another guy'. Of their first and early 2nd round picks you have Glass (borderline bust), Suzuki (the one guy that is ok), Brannstrom (traded to Ottawa, maybe a #7 level D-man), Hague (decent 3rd pair D-man, below average 2nd pair guy), Morozov (couldn't cut it in the AHL so he's back in the AHL), Krebs (who we are talking about now), Korczak (2nd round D-man can't break into NHL going into 5th year), and then none of the guys drafted in the last 4 drafts have any significant NHL time but none of them look like top legit prospects.
Yes, Vegas has traded away some picks and has been drafting lower in the first round most of the time, but besides Arizona (who is the worst drafting team by far in the modern era), Vegas might actually be near the top at drafting poorly. The thing they might be good at is sending away those guys they drafted to other teams for stuff of value before the rest of the league knows there isn't much too them.
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11 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:
You might have the causality wrong here? Most of Skinner's goals come when he's on a line with two other very good players (like TNT and Tuch). Who was centering for him when he was in Krueger's doghouse and how many did he score then?
Regardless, my point was I'd like to see Krebs with 2 young, offensively talented, north-south skaters (again) before I give up on him. Maybe Benson and Savoie (or Kulich)?
I'm most of the way there with you. If, IF you got an offer for him or he was requested by another team in a package for something of value, by all means trade him. But if not (and I personally think its likely he won't have too much value to anyone else at this point), might as well just sign him to a low cost deal and let him try to show you something (maybe a summer of training and some new line-mates help). If he doesn't show you any improvement, waive him and off to Rochester he goes. No real harm.
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43 minutes ago, #freejame said:
I remember it being much more divisive than the board let’s it on to be. It replaced buffalos charging through the city and Sabres Dance. Like others said, it’s also depressing as *****.
I didn't mind 'better days' or anything about it at Sabres games....But...I think "Sabre Dance" should be, always played when the team is introduced and takes the ice, as well as it should have at least a small part on every Sabres broadcast.
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I haven't found the betting odds for who is the next Sabres coach, but I did find the site from when Kreueger was fired in 2022, and the list of the betting odds back then. The moral....don't trust the betting odds:
Full article here: https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/buffalo-sabres-next-head-coach-odds#:~:text=In looking to project what the Sabres will,Rick Tocchet (%2B600) next up on the oddsboard.
some highlights from the 2022 article just before Granato was hired:
On March 17, the Buffalo Sabres announced that head coach Ralph Krueger had been relieved of his duties.
Assistant coach Don Granato will take over on an interim basis for the Sabres, but the chances of him becoming the next permanent coach appear to be slim.
Buffalo Sabres Next Head Coach Odds
Who Will Be The Next Head Coach Of The Buffalo Sabres?
TeamOdds
John Tortorella+300
Bruce Boudreau +350
Guy Boucher+400
Gerard Gallant+500
Rick Tocchet+600
Scott Arniel+700
Mike Yeo+800
Claude Julien+900
Mike Babcock+1000
John Stevens+1200
Rod Brind’Amour+1400
Travis Green+1600
Marc Crawford+1800
Steve Ott+2000
Jeff Blashill+2200
Jacques Martin+2500
Glen Gulutzan+2800
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I expect them to make the playoffs next year. The D will be one year older/more experienced, and that is important for the youngest D in the league. I've convinced myself Tage's drop off was mostly due to his injury and I expect him to play like the 50 goal scorer he was last season. Hopefully, a new coach will evaluate Krebs, Cousins, Skinner for what they are, not for what the team WANTS them to be and adjust their playing time/position/attitude accordingly.
So, does the new Coach get a little bit more out of this team than Granato did? Do they have a slight bit more 'injury luck' than last year? and do they get UPL for the whole year the way he played for the 2nd half of last year? With the D-corp slightly more experienced, and a healthy Tage, You get 2 of those other 3 things I just listed above, they are in the playoffs.
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1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:
Oh ya it's normal for Sabres fans to hate Bruins. There's old history and rivalry too. Great old playoff series way way back.
Leafs should be hated most though. One, just because of all the Canadian media love they get and when they lose that becomes hilariously entertaining and also just because they are right there over the river and up the highway. It's like Philly hating Pittsburgh. You just have to.
My wife is from NY city with her whole family fans of NY teams.... I lived a few years in Boston and work for a company based there.... and living a lot of years RIGHT on the border with Canada (working with Canadians in our Canadian division), I can say, having probably been forced to talk/hear about teams OTHER than Buffalo teams for a good portion of my life, ONE fanbase is the most intolerable. Yankee fans? They are close but no. Bruins/Red Sox/Patriots fans? Not as bad to me as many make them out to be. Maple Leaf fans? There you go! and for ONE primary reason....They are always the victim.
Talk to a Leafs fan vs fans of any other team, and over the long term they will blame the refs for anything that goes wrong for them a LOT more often than any other fanbase. "You know, the league doesn't want the leafs to win, so they make sure the refs are against us" and "We never get any calls you have to know going into the game its the leafs vs the refs and any team they play". "Everyone hates Toronto because they are jealous of us and our history, including the league so we never get the calls."
Or, then there is the fans saying "we will get any free agent we want because we are the Toronto Maple leafs, EVERYONE wants to play here".
I also liked the "the Sabres deserve what they got for tanking, that was terrible what Buffalo did they don't deserve to win" vs when the leafs obviously tanked for Austin Matthews "Thats just us being smarter than everyone else, it was a good move"
Finally, the best one (related to the above...and yes, all fanbases do this but I hear it more from leaf fans)...We should trade a bag of pucks, our 4th rounder in 2026 and our 5th rated prospect for McDavid (or any other Canadian born star in the league)...because you KNOW any players want to play for Toronto, it's their dream! The other team would be smart just to take anything we offer right now, instead of losing them to us for nothing as a free agent".
I grew up watching the Leafs on Hockey Night in canada like many others...I liked them. Its hard for me to like a team and for that to change...it is the behavior of Leaf fans that did that for me. I have to admit I still follow them as much as any team other than the Sabres. Part of me deep down still likes them from my childhood, but their hardcore fans...unbearable.
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1 hour ago, Mango said:
I was just going through some data points in another forum. Cap friendly is by far the best NHL cap resource, below is the team spending going back to 2015 when they first started. The Sabres have been spending bottom half of the league 7 of the last 9 years that they tracked. Another (not so) fun fact is that the Sabres scouting department is tied for the smallest in the league with Ottawa. The Kings and the Jets don't list their scouts, which is super weird, even if they have less the Sabres are in terrible company with those three teams.
2015: 27th
2016: 24th
2017: 19th
2018: 6th
2019: 4th
2020: 18th
2021: 32nd
2022: 32nd
2023: 31stThe scouting department, roster spend, plus the lack of arena maintenance should be major question marks for any high sought after candidate. There are a lot of data points that point towards lack of institutional support.
I don't know if its available, but I'd like to see what the Sabres spend on assistant coaches and development coaches compared to the rest of the league as well. I don't know but I'm guessing that is something they rank very low in also.
I can ALMOST excuse the lack of roster spending, seeing where they are in their development and how young the team is. But, when you have a young/rebuilding roster, that is the EXACT time it makes sense to bump up your scouting/develpment staff. Pegula doesn't seem to want to do that.
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Guys drafted in his range in the first round 15th-20th overall....tend to be busts, or at most marginal NHL players at close to a rate of 50%. It wouldn't be a surprise if he was just that. Now, there are some cases where guys take a while to develop..they get to a certain age and all of a sudden, seemingly out of no-where, it all clicks. But usually you would see signs of that. 20 career goals in 215 career games, and 46 assists....its a little bit worrysome. That is 7.5 goals and 17.5 assists, 25 points over 82 games. Almost 3 full years in the NHL, a cup of coffee in the 4th year. I don't know, it COULD still happen for him but right now I'm not hopeful.
Here is the bottom line for me. If it DOES click for him, I don't want it to happen while continuing to give him time on this roster. I think whatever ice time he would get here, its time to give it to someone 'better' right now.
Now, I'll contradict most of what I said and say you sigh him. Why? I highly doubt you get anything of value for him in a trade. So you sign him, let him try to blow you away in camp. If he does and EARNS a spot on the roster, great! if he doesn't down to Rochester he goes. If he gets picked up on waivers on the way to Roch, well, you didn't want him up here anyway.
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1 hour ago, dudacek said:
Why does everyone point to Brunette as the main reason for the rise and fall of the Devils?
Didn’t exchanging 3 veteran defencemen (Hamilton, Graves, Severson) for 3 rookies (Hughes, Nemec Bahl) in their starting 6 play a huge role?
I mean, those are talented kids but we know 1st-hand about having too many young D. The vets were +66, the kids -31.
Agree. And as I mentioned in a different post, having a choice of goalies including Schmid, Allen, Vanecek, and Daws. All 4 of them with a save percentage below .900 and GAA above 3.00 this year.
Oh, and your top D-man and your top 3 forwards all missing significant time with injuries this year.
Everyone wants to say he's bad because the team did bad this year without Brunette. To me...No Brunette on one hand...or the other hand being your top D-man missing almost the entire year, Jack Hughes missing 20 games, and Timo Meier and Hischier missing time also, PLUS no decent goatending.
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6 minutes ago, dudacek said:
This was a year where he needed to take a leap and the results were disappointing.
Krebs has shown clear progress over the past 2 years defensively and has become pretty reliable in that area. He’s fast, relatively fearless and has some skill.
But the skill has not manifested itself into enough production for the third line and the grit is less than ideal for the 4th.
He’s at the cusp of the 200 games/3 seasons point where kids have to show what they are. What he is right now is a player who needs to be better to be part of this going forward.
Im not ready to move on in the same sense I am with Jost. But I certainly would not be going into next season with him as a 3C.
I want to see what a new coach can do for his game. But I fear Jost may be who he is.
I agree with almost everything you said except for the fast part. Is he? Serious question. My bad memories of him this year are of a turnover in the offensive zone, and him simply not being able to catch back up to players who are carrying the puck when he is chasing them from behind. Not just once, but multiple times. On the backcheck, he seems to be that 1 step too slow to catch up to anyone. I just don't see speed.
The NHL edge data shows him as being mid pack in terms of top speed (54th percentile), above average in speed bursts between 18-20 and 20-22mph (70 and 61 percentile) but well below average in terms of 22mph+ bursts (he's only had 1 all year and is listed as 'below 50').
I guess the 'stats' say he is average to 'slightly' above average, but in practice he doesn't catch people from behind often on the backcheck.
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31 minutes ago, Night Train said:
Trade for what ? A 2030 6th round pick ?
That is what I am thinking, what is his value? Sure, if he brings in something of value trade him, but I HIGHLY doubt he brings in something of value. You might almost be better giving him a contract, keeping him around and seeing if he is one of those 'late developers', a lottery ticket that at one point was talented enough to be picked in the first round. I don't think he has much value in a trade.
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The biggest problem I have with Ruff is not that he is not good, but rather if he is here it is likely something that Pegula wants....and to me the biggest problem with this team is Pegula having input on coaches, staff, draft, trades, FA, and he isn't good at that. To me Ruff being here is not getting the BEST guy, but the guy Pegula wants.
I'm not 100% in on Ruff, but he's not as bad as some are making him out to be. The arguments against him I keep reading are his good year last year was a result of Brunette, and without him this year the team wasn't as good. Maybe that is part of it, but this year is not all on Lindy, in fact, there are points to say he did a decent job this year with some really bad circumstances in Jersey:
This year, He had that team in contention (near .500 and in the race) with his Stars either not playing or coming back from injuries. Hughes, Timo Meier and Hischier missed games, their best D-man was out just about the entire year (Hamilton). If you look at the production of Hughes, Hischier, and Timo Meier, they have been more productive than the Sabres top 3 guys (Tage, and whoever other 2 you want), yet those NJ guys missed more games due to injury than any of the Sabres top guys (those top guys missed over 100 games combined, with Hughes, the most important, missing 20)
They fired Ruff as a way to see if they could salvage the season, got most of their key injured forwards back and playing after he was gone, and they performed worse after he got fired. Yes, with Lindy as coach, the team was better with no credible goaltender, ravaged by key injuries, than they were AFTER he left when they got healthier.
And all of this was with his GM not getting him a goaltender, their goaltending is worse than what Granato had with the Sabres. Give Ruff UPL level goaltending and that team is SO much better, possibly in the playoffs even with them being wrecked by injuries.
I don't think they are going to go with Ruff, but I don't think hes as bad as some here are saying as if the game has 'totally passed him by'
Lindy may not be the BEST choice, but if he were hired its no a disaster. The key would be his assistants. Let him bring in who he wants, and let Pegula PAY for who he wants. If he (or ANYONE else) has to bring on a staff on a tight budget or is given this years staff, anyone is in trouble.
NHL Playoffs (First Round) discussion
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by mjd1001
I remember this last year. I looked at the first round matchups, I picked the 8 teams I thought would win, I was very confident in those picks, and then it turned out I was WAY off.
This years round one looks a light tighter/closer to me, and to be honest, the most fun/interesting first round I can remember. I'm really looking forward to watching the next 2 weeks of hockey more than almost anytime I can remember in recent history.