mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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1 hour ago, Sidc3000 said:
I was in a hurry when I was adding his stats and used his current points for this seasons. He’s a 60ish point player, on average, with the Sabres.
When I do the numbers he is averaging 75 points per 82 games since joining the Sabres. That is not "60'ish" at all.
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I'm pretty confident he was playing hurt, but is getting better, and hopefully this week-and-a-half break does some good for him.
-he had multiple days during training camp where he didn't participate, and he also had some days he missed practice right at the start of the year.
-Through October, he had 5 points in his first 9 games where he as missing frequent practices (45 point pace). He has been getting better since then, 29 points in 33 games since (72 point pace). The first month of the season really 'hurt' his stats'
-As I mentioned in the 'Sabres are playing slow thread', Tuch is one of the fastest skaters on the team, but the site tracks how many/how often a player has a 'speed burst' in a game of over 20mph. Tuch is WAY down from last year, probably has the biggest drop on the entire team. If he was playing hurt at the beginning of the year, that would be a sign that it is the case.
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Right now, a 92 point pace would get you in the way things stand. Usually you need 94-96.
Sabres have 33 games left. To get to 92 points they need to play at a 109 'point pace.' To get to 95, the need to play at a 117 'point pace.' To play at a 109 point pace, that means you are playing like a top 6 (6th best) team in the league. a 117 point pace? Only Boston and Vancouver have played at the pace for the season so far, so you'd have to play at a top 2 or 3 team in the league pace.
Their current spot in the standings (how many teams to pass, how many points out), doesn't mean nothing, but the goal is the point total. Right now its 92, but usually ends up being about 95.
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Ok, a huge break now between games. No one get injured on vacation. Tuch, Thompson, wrap yourself in bubble wrap over the next week. Any lingering injuries/issues, come back at full strength.
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I really really dislike Cozens game in every way this year. BUT, he is valuable when he puts the puck in the net. Empty net goals to me are just as good/important as regular goals. If he can get going and start putting up some goals and points, I'll feel a lot better about him. I'm beginning to get some hope.
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3 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Would wager he's been dealing with a groin injury or a sport hernia the entire season. Not bad enough to shut him down, but it is noticable when he pulls up and then can't get that extra step he had the past 2 seasons for the rest of a game.
Seems to make sense. His 'top speed' is about the same as last year, but he is pushing himself to get to top speed MUCH less than last year.
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Digging through the site a bit more, some interesting things:
-Tuch seems to be the one who is peforming worse/slower this year compared to last year. His 'speed bursts' per game are WAY down.
-Skinner seems to farther down the list of top speed on the team and also a very low number of 'speed burts' over 20 mph. Way less than I thought. One thing Skinner is good at, he is 7th in the entire league in shots attempted over the past 3 seasons combined from the front of the net (high danger) area. He is the ONE player on this team that is willing to go to the 'dirty' areas and take some punishment for prime scoring chances.
-Zemgus has one of the highest top speeds on the team, AND one of the higher number of bursts over 20mph. When you figure in his ice time, I'd guess he leads the team (both last year and this year) in speed burts over 20mph with respect to his ice time.
-Tage. Last year he had 210 shots then entire year from the high danger areas (right in front of the net, and between the faceoff dots). This year he only has 84. From those prime areas, he is taking 22% LESS shots per game this year than last year.
-Cozens. Everything about his numbers are similar to last year. Skating speed, Speed bursts. Shots on goal location, almost every single metric you can measure is about the same EXCEPT shooting percentage. The worrying thing is his numbers even the year before are about the same. The ONLY thing that is different over the past few years is last years shooting percentage. His game offensively and skating is the same each year. Really hope last year's shooting percentage wasn't just an anomoly.
For anyone interested, the highest top speeds recoreed this year of forwards: (League leaders: Owen Tippet 24.21, Braydon Point 24.15, Nate MacKinnon 24.05, McDavid 24.05,)
Sabres Forwards:
Tuch 22.99 MPH
Zemgus 22.88
Thompson 22.64
Peterka 22.43
Cozens 22.36
Krebs 22.36
Mitts 22.16
Skinner 22.04
Robinson 21.92
Olofsson 21.76
Greenway 21.72
Quinn 21.71
Okposo 21.53
Tyson Jost 21.08
Rosen 21.05
Kulich 20.83
Benson 20.80
Highest skating speeds recorded all year by Defensemen: (league leaders: Mackenzie Weeger 23.61, Zach Werenski 23.50, Sam Girard 23.43, Miro Heiskanen 23.36)
Samuelsson 22.43
Clifton 21.96
Jokiharju 21.70
Bryson 21.52
Dahlin 21.44
Ryan Johnson 21.35
Power 21.27
Eric Johnson 21.22
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43 minutes ago, Marvin said:
I am an applied mathematician. His calculation is how I would do it. I would absolutely believe that @mjd1001 is an actuarial scientist based on the presentation.
Actually, mostly been in retail my whole life, with a few times dabbling in economics (major in college). I just like numbers and statistics. Math was/is always my favorite subject..as long as it deals with numbers. When it comes to calculus and beyond, never interested.
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54 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:
What does this tell?
They aren't skating as hard as the did last year....or
Their 'faster' players are playing hurt...or
They are playing a different style than last year....or.
Some or all of the above
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If you are going to make a change and go with an older/experienced guy, I'd have Ruff near the top of the list if he is available.
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I don't know the names, but in concept:
-a legit top tier defensemen who is a veteran. 26-30 years old. At least 400 games NHL experience. A guy who is great as a 2nd pair, but could even fill in on the first pair.
-Pay whatever you need to in order to give Granato some top tier assistants. Lets cut down on the number of former players getting their first or 2nd job coaching/developing on the Sabres. I don't want/need a new head coach, but if I'm going to keep Granato he needs MUCH better staff to work with.
-A goalie to compete with Levi for the backup role next year.
-A 6'5" or taller forward who is will be a physical presense on the 4th line, but skilled/fast enough to be a good penalty killer....someone with that size and reach will take up a lot of space on the PK.
-Re-sign Mitts and maybe, MAYBE get another legit NHL center so you can move Cozens to wing.
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I looked at last year....below are the charts for last year.
Main difference, while this year they are near the bottom for 'speed burts' over 18, 20, and 22 mph......LAST year they were above average compared to the rest of the league in speed bursts over 20, and near the TOP in terms of 'speed bursts' over 18.
In terms of skating, last year they were an above average time, near the TOP of the league in how many speed bursts they had over 18, while they have turned into one of the, if not THE slowest playing team this year.
Last year's data:
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I didn't know about the NHL edge site, I stumbled upon it today.
Lot of tracking data, I thought the Sabres were always one of the faster teams in the league, but not even close.
They track individual players, teams, Top speed attained skating by forwards, by defensemen, and the total number of 'burts' each player/team has had over 18mph, over 20mph, and over 22mph.
What does the data show? Sabres are, or at least they play VERY slow.
Only 14 times all year have they had a player with over a 22mph speed (70% less than leage AVERAGE) . 716 times over 20 (23% less than average) . 3982 over 18mph (5.5% below league average)
I didn't go through every team, but in the first chart below, the closer you are to the outer edge of the circle, the higher you rank compared to other teams, the closer you are to the center, the closer you are to worst in the league.
Here is the link to the Sabres page on the site: https://edge.nhl.com/en/team/BUF
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17 minutes ago, Taro T said:
Because most of the guys that might be earning their way into the doghouse (your examples of Cozens and Power being the prime examples)
With Cozens, I am probably harder on him than I should be becasue I always watched him and wondered what people saw that was so great...until last year. Last year, he put in 30 goals, and I was like "finally, if that is what he is, he is going to be a very good player". But as I mentioned above, I think he needs to produce close to that level to be of much value.
Power I was hesitant to list. I think he is OK for his age. I guess the only reason I put him up there is, at the end of last year and earlier this year...there were a lot of fans thinking he was a top D-man in the league. I think he is middle of the pack in terms of D-men in the league, over-rated by many Sabres fans even last year...but I'm not down on him. I just think he'll take time and 'patience' is the one thing very few around here want to hear.
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I'm not sure if this thread will go anywhere, but Its someting we talk a lot amongst each other without specifically saying...so...
Compared to everyone else you debate with on here, or the impression of the general fanbase, who do you like more on this roster or think is better? And who do you think gets too much credit and is worse than general perception?
For me:
Better: Girgeonsons. He's a 4th liner and not more than that, but I see a coupel posts a week from people saying they can't wait to get rid of him. But to me, he still is an above average skater/speed, 2nd best forchecker on the team, is good enough on the PK, rarely makes obvious mistakes in his own zone..and he scores at about the same rate as an average 4th liner around the league.
Better: Jokiharju. Is he great? No, but I think his 'defensive zone mistakes' are often where he looks bad trying to cover for a forward who has no idea what he is doing. Again, not a top pair guy, but I think he has well-rounded talent and should still get better as he gains more experience (he still is only 24)
Worse: Krebs. I don't see anything in his game I like. His offense to me looks accidental. He is VERY slow on the backcheck and many times I have seen him coasting back when one more step of effort could have prevented a goal against. Hes not big, he doesn't win many loose puck battles. Yes, he IS still young and some forwards come into their own in their mid 20's, but I don't see much from him at all that I like
Worse: Cozens. As a Center, he is worse than a train wreck in his own zone. He NEEDs to produce 25-30 goals to make up for how bad he is in his own zone, and he doesn't sem to be getting better back there. He had a 30 goal breakout year he got paid for, but EVERY other year (including this year) seems to show that 'breakout year' was really a 'career year'. At least as a Center (where this team insists on playing him) he seems to have below average 'hockey sense' in the offensive zone, and ZERO hockey sense in the defensive zone. I wish every day they move him to wing because he is a bad center. BAD.
Worse: Power. For now. I hope/think he will get better, so I don't feel as bad about him as Cozens and Krebs, but he is very tenative when he seems to have the talent not to be. He is confused in his own zone (I THINK that will get better with experience). Again, I think he will get better but, in terms of how good he is now, I think many fans were looking at him throgh rose colored glasses last year, he's going to need more time.
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10 hours ago, Huckleberry said:
Yeah I just seen this pop up , I was like what the ***** should be 5 games at least.
There is no doubt that was intentionally, late, not needed...etc. In a perfect world that should be 20+ games. Get THIS stuff out of the game, and you might be able to justfiy other physical play.
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31 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:
I would love to know exactly how crazy the odds are for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 14 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that they are lower than winning a Stanley Cup at least once during that timeframe. The level of incompetence in this organization has actually reached a point which is almost impossible to duplicate.
I actually worked that out a while ago mathematically a while ago...
The odds of winning a stanley cup are pretty simple. 32 teams in the leage, 14 times the cup is awarded. Simple odds are 43.7% a team will win a cup in a 14 year period. 1 in 2.28. Odds of missing the playoffs 14 years in a row? Simple odds are .0045%. Or 1 in about 22,000.
A lot of things can determine your odds for making/missing the playoffs. For example, the Bills drought...much of it was contributed to by Brady being in the division, but in Hockey its different.
Statistically, you can say you have a 50% chance of making or missing the playoffs in a given year. For any time, after 2 years, the 'odds' are 25% you miss both years, 25% you make it both years, and 50% chance you miss one year and make it the next...and so on and so on.
Now, with expansion, the odds change slightly. It hasn't always been EXACTLY 50%, sometime you had a BETTER chance (beginning of the drought, 8 of 15 teams in the conference made the playoffs, so your odds to make it were even better than they are now.
So, what are the pure statistical odds that any hockey team would take a 12 year period and not make the playoffs even once? 0.018% chance. Or, in other words, a 1 in 5,531 chance that, over the last 12 years, any team in the Sabres division/conference would not make the playoffs one time. If you 'simulated' an average team through 12 seasons, 5,531 times, only ONE of those times, on average, would a team miss 12 years in a row.
If the Sabres miss this year, with half the conference making the playoffs again, the odds of missing 13 years in a row would be 1 in 11,062.
Chances of missing 14 years in a row? 1 in about 22,000. Or 0.0045% If you could find a sportsbook to give you odds that ANY team, starting today, would miss the playoffs for the next 14 years.....you would likely win about $2 million dollars on a $100 bet.
So yes, they made the decision to tank, but again, those are the numbers for ANY team with a few years of 8 out of 15 teams making the playoffs and most other years 8 or 16 making it.
Hockey Heaven? The sole reason for them existing is to win the Stanley cup? You would think that even if you TRIED to be that bad it would be hard to do so. That can't be all bad luck..or it can't be a new owner 'learning curve', there has to be a whole lot of ineptitude in there.
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1 minute ago, Mango said:
It isn’t just a goal issue. I wish he was just “bad in the defensive zone”. But it’s like he actively has no idea where he is supposed to be so he just skates in circles.Like, Skinner doesn’t play defense. That’s a problem, but he knows how to play hockey and is trying to play the fast break/actively deciding not to play defense. Whereas Cozens looks totally lost in the defensive zone.
Cozens is being carried by JJP and Quinn at the moment. I think it’s time to push him out to the wing, give him less responsibility, and see if he can be a productive top 6 RW. We have a million center prospects, I’d give it a whirl. The season is lost.
I agree with you on a lot of things, the above included.
I really think with Cozens, I don't know....is it that he doesn't know where to be? or just he can't control his urge to chase the puck. Its like when little kids start to play hockey at a very young age, you TELL them where they should be, but put the skates on and it doesn't matter, they all just chase the puck, ignoring what they SHOULD be doing. With Cozens, I see the same thing. There are times I swear the team is set up in their own zone, Cozens SHOULD be covering the slot, but then he just leaves to chase a puck he can't get to, and the spot he vacates an opposing player steps into and there is a scoring chance.
Skinner on the other hand, I think he just doesn't want to play defense. I watched a replay a couple weeks ago where a goal was scored against the Sabres, and as the puck came from the neutral zone to the defensive zone, Skinner was on his way back and he literally slammed on the brakes, he STOPPED at the blue line and didn't enter the zone. Was he supposed to do that? Meaning was the 'plan' to have 4 guys in the D-zone and he was supposed to be there waiting for a breakout pass? Maybe. Its just that when you watch the games, Skinner isn't often noticable in the D-zone.
2 Different issues with both of those players. Honestly, I think Cozens does more harm in the defensive zone. There hare been discussions lately saying it might be part of the 'system', that the Sabres in their own zone aren't supposed to play 'zone' defense. Still, even if that is true, Cozens is VERY noticable at doing things that no one else does in the D-zone. He is Awful. Move Cozens to wing please where him chasing the puck along the boards in the defensive zone is where he SHOULD be, he hurts this team when he vacates the slot and leaves it wide open.
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This offseason was nothing compared to losing Briere and Drury from that mid 2000's Sabres team. Not even close to as bad. And that without even putting any thought to any other teams.
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8 minutes ago, TageMVP said:
This doesn't matter. If certain guys dont progress here, then it doesn't matter if they do on another team.
If you'd prefer, trade prospects who are not currently a regular in the lineup. Adams has a million
Current wait and see approach is exhausting
Just curious, what would your approach be to improving the team? I'd start by firing Granato but you seem to usually say it's the players. Well if it's a player only problem, wouldn't you logically like to trade some of them?
I'd start with Granato, personally.
I'd go with a much different approach, I certainly would not bring in another young, inexperienced d-man.
How to fix this team without totally blowing it up?
-Bring in a 27-30 year old LEGIT 1st or 2nd pair D-man. Give up a high draft pick and prospect it you must. Doesn't need to be a tough guy, doesn't have to score a lot. Just someone you can rely on when the forwards make their usual mistakes in their own end.
-Move Cozens to wing. Maybe he'll get less of the scoring chances that he wants/needs, but the rest of his play is better suited to wing.
-Clean out most of the assistant coaching staff and develpment staff and bring in EXPERIENCED guys, overpay them if you must.
-Put in a system where forwards play positionally in their own end, and when they fail to do so, sit them for a period.
-Start Levi as many games in Rochester as possible. Next year, the goal is UPL as the starter, Levi as the backup up here but Levi should be getting playing time now.
-Your 4th line should be 3 guys who excel on the PK. Why? do whatever you need to keep Cozens and Thompson (and Tuch) for that matter off the PK. You need those guys for goals, don't eat up their minutes on PK or have them standing in the way of shots that can lead to further injuries.
-Pray for better injury luck.
Is there more you can do? probably, but that is the list of the things I can think of that are the easiest that would have the greatest impact on this team.
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55 minutes ago, K-9 said:
Good for them. But it’s just one game. They’ve had a good game or two in the past as well. Then, like the rest of the pretenders, they disappear for a while. When their good games become the norm vs. the just once in a while, I’ll pay attention again.
And not for nothing, this season, like so many others during the drought, was supposed to be the realization of a bright future for this team. Instead, they are exactly what their record says they are; a sub .500 group of wannabe NHL pretenders. So pardon me if, after 30+ years as a STH, I refuse to by the bullcrap they’re selling any longer.
Exactly. One of the biggest mistakes people make is taking a small sample size and then thinking it means more than it does...
The difference often times between a good player and a bad one...a great team and average team....is not how they look when they are at the top of their game.....but instead how OFTEN they can play close to the top of their game. Its encouraging to see that line play well because you know they 'have it in them', but before I believe they are a 'good' line again I need to see it several games in a row.
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6 minutes ago, WhenWillItEnd66 said:
I love the conversation, and it is nice to see, but lack of effort (Ducks game) is not a system problem. It is a coaching motivation problem. Players not doing their job (Mitts on the first goal) would be a system/freelance/effort issue.
The current Sabres system is flawed. Perimeter hockey in the offensive zone is not going to produce many goals. Same goes for the PP. It is a grossly flawed offensive system which everyone sees but the Sabres coaches. Thats a huge coaching Issue.
A team that cannot handle any kind of defensive structure or forecheck is also a Coaching/System issue. In some cases you can say player issue but most of the players on this team are built skill wise similarly. They are mostly not physical, nor do they like to finish checks and be "Hard to play against".
Until these are addressed and corrected this team will go nowhere but to the laundromat. Wash rinse, repeat, in this case , lose, no playoffs
Maybe it is a coaching issue when you break it all down (coaches are responsible for the players actions) but to me it is more of a player issue for this reason...the breakdowns in the D-zone....Cozens, Okposo, and Benson probably account for almost half of them from what I can see on replays of goals allowed. While, when I watch the games myself, Girgensons, USUALLY Greenway and Mitts, and Thompson do not have anywhere near the same kind of breakdowns, hardly any that I see.
How are some players just not able to hold their position on the ice, seeming breaking away and doing their 'own thing' causing goals against? While others hardly ever do that?
The Cozens thing has me baffled. His ice time was down a bit this year so maybe the coaches are starting to realize he has problems this way, but at the same point, they keep on putting him out there on the PK and keep him at center. The 'can't stop chasing the puck issues to the boards" might actually be a STRENGTH of his game if his defensive assignment was that of a winger, but there must be something else coaching-wise going on under the surface that they know that I (we) don't.
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46 minutes ago, dudacek said:
I agree with where you're going with the bold. Like most systems, it breaks down if just one guy is freelancing.
So the question for me becomes who is freelancing? Why? And why is it taking so long to be corrected?
In the bigger picture though, I still believe the offence has been a bigger issue than the defence all season.
I'm not disagreeing with your habit of focusing on specific goals against, but I have to say that should be done with a caveat of "of course there were breakdowns" on the goals against. You'll see similar breakdowns on the highlights of most goals against, and with most teams.
The Sabres by design play high event hockey. If they are playing their game, you expect breakdowns at both ends of the ice. They're built to win 4-3, not 2-1. They'll take the Kopitar goal if the tradeoff is 2 of those Peterka goals. Most games they just haven't been getting enough of the latter.
You might disagree with that choice, but that's a different discussion.
I think they're not only failing, they're failing on their own terms.
Thanks for bringing some good discussion to the board.
For the second point you make, because mistakes of course are made where your goalie makes a save, but by focusing on goals allowed, we can look at where mistakes are likely made and see the result of them. Its just more efficient than spending 3 hours breaking down film is the best way to put it.
As far as the first point who is freelancing? 2 parts to that question. Cozens is the #1 offender. There are times where the 5 man unit is in their own zone and everything is going pretty well, and then for ZERO reason he takes off and chases a puck into the corner, the puck comes back out to where he was supposed to be and there is your goal against. The best way I can describe it is he is like a Dog chasing a squirell, or a cat chasing string...he just can't control himself. Others make that mistake too (Okposo surprisingly a lot, and as much as everyone loves Benson, he can be a liability in his own zone this way) but by far Cozens has done it dozens of times in the past year leading to goals against. Who doesn't do it much? Normally Greenway. He had a bad game last night but he is pretty good as maintaining is D-zone coverage usually. Also Thompson and Girgensons. They both often look like they aren't doing a lot in the defensive zone but are holding position where they should be.
A side not, while Girgensons is someone many think is close to useless or want to get rid of, he is one of the players on this team that USUALLY plays positionally well in his own end and is probabaly the 2nd best forechecker on this team next to Tuch.
The 2nd part of that isn't 'freelancing', but just that when coming back into the defensive zone, the forwards seem to frequently all go to the side of the ice the puck is on. If the puck is on the far side, both the far side winger and the center are on the far boards, and the 'near side' winger even is near center ice, leaving the entire other side of the ice open (see the Kopitar goal last night for a great example). This happens a LOT! when watching the game I notice this even when goals aren't scored against. In some games numerous prime scoring chances against are allow simply because the forwards ALL go to the side of the ice the puck is on, while someone from the other team just slips into the open side of the ice very easily.
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1 hour ago, dudacek said:
I think the Sabres (in many situations) are coached to come hard at the puck carrier and in layers.
The system is designed to create odd-man advantages for the defence, where the primary defender is taking away time and space and the layers are in a position to block, or at least disrupt passes, support puck battles, and pounce on forced turnovers.
By design it will leave people open, on the principle that the open guy is a great distance away from the puck carrier, with a lot of obstacles between them. It's betting those obstacles, combined with the pressure, should mean the puck rarely gets to the open guy.
Your photo above both illustrates the principle and where it can break down.
Mittelstadt, Greenway and Dahlin are doing what they are supposed to do positionally. Where it breaks down is the primary defender, Bryson, has allowed the puck carrier far too much time and space. Without time and space, the puck carrier would be angled into the corner, forced to reverse up the boards, or attempting a rushed pass that the Sabres are in position to pick off.
Without the pressure, the puck carrier is talented enough to pick his spot between Mitts and Dahlin and put it on the tape for Kopitar.
Really it's not much different than defence in football: get in the QB's face and he'll miss his throws. Give him time and he'll pick you apart.
It could be, maybe your correct.....
But the problem I see is is, the benefit of that would be to force turnovers, it rarely happens. When you watch the Sabres goals scored, very few of them start with 'tilting' your forwards toward the puck holder in your own side of the ice, causing a turnover and then taking it the other way. Plus, the screenshot I showed is just a symptom/example where you can see everyone doing it. Over the past year, many, MANY goals the sabres allowed were caused by one forward making that mistake. Some of the guys play the right 'zone' and one chases the puck....and the goal is allowed...with no one set up to take advantage of a turnover if presented.
Its almost like in football terms, your best defense in most situations is a zone defense, yet the Sabres fowards in their own end prefer to play man-to-man...but they don't even line up on the right guy, they just cover whoever they want. Or worse, the coach calls a zone coverage, and one guy just decides....I want to play man to man so I'm going to chase someone and leave my zone open. It just happens so much with this team/forward group.
52 minutes ago, dudacek said:I don't study other teams enough to know if there are teams (Carolina comes to mind?) that execute this system well, or if it's just a bad system period.
I mean you do see it working for the Sabres multiple times a game, you just see it failing a lot as well.
Buffalo seems to skate fast enough to make it work, so are they making bad decisions? Slow to recognize situations? Not invested enough to trust it, or each other?
Either the system is flawed, a bad match for the players, or the message isn't getting through.
Each of those things seem to point back at the coaching staff.
(I did like the rush offence last night, looked like last year. Again, why has that disappeared?)
I think the system is flawed, but your point about them making bad decisions seems like it happens also.
Whether the system is flawed, or the players aren't good enough to play it...either way it seems a change should be made.
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Sabres on 7-4 "run" in 2024 lose ground in playoff race
in The Aud Club
Posted
Agree on Tage, Cozens and Power.....
But Skinner? He is giving you pretty much exactly what he did last year..and the year before. He is playing minimal defense, not helping out in his own end, but NOT giving the puck away in his own zone. He is scoring at a 34 goal pace. That is pretty much what I expect from him and at this point, if Everyone else listed was doing what is expected of them...what I need from Skinner given his skillset.