mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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Carolina, Florida, and Tampa next week.
That will be a good test for UPL and the team defense.
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18 minutes ago, Big Guava said:
Kinda crazy as this team was horrible defensively and now has become mostly very good. They have only allowed 40 goals since January 1st, the best number in the NHL.
Their issue? They have sacrificed a LOT of offense to do it. They need to figure out how to do both at the same time.
Shots are about the same as last year on average but their shooting percentage has gone from 5th at 11.0% last year to 9.3% which is in the 20s this year. Is it a regression to the mean and last year was a career year for many players? Maybe. But almost 2% seems like a huge dropoff. More likely they will be somewhere around 10% most years which means they are underperforming this year in terms of scoring.
Seems this year a lot of chances they would have buried last year have stayed out of the net.
If they continue their defensive play and can figure out how to play offense this team could start making some noise. Maybe too late for this year but it would bode well for next year.
I don't know the numbers up to today, but when you break things down, this is what it looks like:
-Goatending (UPL) is better than last year
-Overall team defense, especially since Jan 1, is better than last year (eye test and shots allowed)
-Goal scoring is only SLIGHTLY off compared to last year with 2 big exceptions that you didn't expect...Cozens and Tage. They are getting chances. They are getting the same number of shots as last year....just they aren not converting, shooting percentage is way down.
I know the narrative is there was a major change in coaching that is causing the drop in goals. That might be partially true but it really isn't more than just a small part. Most of the team is scoring at a similar rate to last year (only slightly less)...its just Tage and Cozens aren't hitting the back of the net.
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Zemgus with 1 goal in 11 minutes.... Tage with no goals in 17 minutes... Have to check the stats tomorrow, but Zemgus may have caught/passed Tage in terms of even strength goals per 60 minutes played...for 5th on the team.
1 minute ago, Pimlach said:Who was he paired with?
didn't really see....was mostly following the puck when watching it live.
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Just now, Pimlach said:
Bryson out for the final 40 sec?
Just a guess....you want someone who is 'quicker' with a good first step to get to a loose puck and knock it out of the zone? With that little time left, not worrying about someone making a good decision on who to cover on a 2-on-1, or making a great breakout pass.....just simply a quick guy to get his stick on a loose puck? I'm probably reaching....
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Just now, Carmel Corn said:
Better rebound control (maybe)?
I think its a bit of everything. He is playing well. The forwards aren't leaving wide open areas in the D-zone. Because the forwards are playing better, that helps the D-men to play better/be in better position. They could all be tied into together. It might ultimately be UPL playing better BECAUSE he has more confidence the team in front of him isn't going to hang him out to dry...
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6 minutes ago, Believer said:
Tarasov is keeping Columbus in the game… 37 saves… 6 by Thompson.
Thompson's shooting percentage is dangerously close to going into single digits...after being almost 16 last year and 15 the year before. I HOPE there is an injury he is playing through becuase it just doesn't make sense otherwise. He would have 26 goals this year already if he just shot at the same percentage he did the last couple of seasons.
3 minutes ago, Big Guava said:Interestingly enough, analytics suggest that the team playing better defensively is most of the reason and his actual numbers are not that much above where they would be expected.
Possible there could be a large split between 1st half and 2nd half of the season tho and those numbers are significantly better in the 15-20 games.
I don't get too far into the analytics/fancy stats.....but the 'eye test' for me shows the forwards are playing MUCH better since January 1st. Its like someone flipped some kind of switch then and the forwards are making a fraction of the obvious mistakes they made until then.
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In an effort to make things look as GOOD as possible (because that is what we do here, honestly, we pick and choose stats that make the case we want to make on this forum), you can say its really the last 15 games that he has turned around his game....all around play AND production....
Since the San Jose game Jan 15 for Greenway, which was the first time he scored in almost 3 weeks:
13 games played, 6 goals, 3 assists, +7 (projected over 82 games, 38g, 19a, +44 'pace')
Of course that is cherry-picking stats in his last 13 games, but it does show just how productive he has been over that stretch. Lets see if he can keep up production even CLOSE to that for the near future. He's not a Star player. But what makes for 'good' players are guys who can have stetches as good as that....and not have them followed up by stretches of being a liability or totally disapparing.
For the season as a whole he is 7th in es goals per 60 (just behind Zemgus and just ahead of Mitts) and 3rd on the entire team in +/- (only Mitts is better among the forwards)
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Back in high school (a couple decades ago), I decided to go to community college instead of U.B. right after high school. Everyone criticized me for me, my parents wondered why, a little making-fun-of and jeering from classmates in school....even teachers and my guidance counselar disagreed. Its something that I'm glad I did then, and I think it applies as a good option even much more today than it did years ago.
For a lot of 'kids' graduating high school, I think pressure from their parents pushes them away from 2 year /community colleges. I know talkign to some people at work now, if their kids (or grandkids) don't go to a 4 year school, its almost like it is embarassing for the parents/grandparents.
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46 minutes ago, Hawerchuk said:
Well, you're not wrong.
Forget all that for a moment though. Greenway needs to park his big frame in front of the goalie and wreak havoc and score the dirty garbage goals like good ol friend, Dave Andreychuk. IMO.
Andreychuk had very good control of the puck with his stick and was a lot quicker with it than Greenway. Not saying Greenway shouldn't do that, but he doesn't have the puck control/stick skills Andreychuk had.
Skinner is really the one player on the team that excels in that. He can get a loose puck in front of the net, get off a backhander really quick or be one of the quicker guys to get the puck to his forehand and let off an accurate shot. The problem is, he does't have the size/body to park himself in front of the net. If you could give Skinner Greenways size....or give Greenway Skinner's hands...you'd have an all star, top 5 goal scorer in the league...but alas, that can't be done.
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52 minutes ago, xzy89c1 said:
If one produces at his level, in order to be tough one must fight more than 8 times in a career.
He is not tough, intimidates no one, does not produce and does not fight.
He is a good penalty killer?
He has 9 goals on the year. 9 goals on a bad team.
For the system the team SEEMS to want to run, and the one this year it is effective in, yes.
Earlier in the year the PK looked very good for a few stretches. The guys on the PK? Tage, Greenway, Samuelsson and Johnson. What do they have in common? The tallest guys on the team with the biggest reach.
Why is that important? The Sabres PK is really REALLY bad when they start chasing. When they establish the 4 man box in their own zone, the opposing team passes teh puck around but hardly gets a good shot. The ONLY times they get a good shot is when someone on the Sabres decides to chase or pressure the puck and they get out of position, opening up great chance for the other team.
IF you are going to tell your guys to stay discipline and hold their positions to maintain that PK box integrity, the best way to do iit is with big guys out there that can cover a lot of territory with their reach and stick. The current verision of the Sabres PK actually does that well and Greenway is a big part of it.
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1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:
doesn't UPL have THREE shutouts since January 1st? Not 2? Chi, LA, and San Jose?
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3 hours ago, Carmel Corn said:
I'm a dinosaur....still have a land line at my house.
Not sure how long we will have that option....
Still love your landline? Phone service providers are getting closer to phasing it out
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/tech/landline-phone-service-phasing-out/index.html
1 hour ago, inkman said:Has anyone tried putting their phone is rice? Maybe that’ll help.
Another thing I guess we can't do anymore....
Apple warns: Don't put your wet iPhone in rice.
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2 hours ago, JohnC said:
How does a poorer record prove that some players don't want to be here? What it proves to me is that this team hasn't learned to adapt to a visiting team's more conservative/tighter road team style of play. There is a difference between being physically talented and having the required on ice intelligence to adjust to a different style of game. What's the remedy? A few additions need to be made to improve the mix and balance on the roster.
Your explanation is as good as any. A few games, a part of a season, it makes sense, but a couple years of being better on the road? I really am at a loss. You have the last change advantage at home. You are used to the arena, the ice quality, the boards, the locker room. You more often than not have not traveled as much. there are so many little things that add up to, over the LONG run, being better at home.
As you said, maybe its a matchup thing. Maybe they play worse against other teams playing a 'road style game'. There is something similar going on with the Leafs. They do poorly against 'bad' teams (Buffalo, Ottawa, Chicago, Columbus), so the fanbase in TO thinks the team doesn't get up for those games. When really if you break down the games, its not the quality of the opponent the Leafs play bad agains...it is the STYLE. If Toronto can easily outskate a team, they usually win. But when they play a young team (a worse team) but one that has raw talent AND forces the Leafs to put in a lot of effort in to outskate/out 'raw' talent them, they don't like that.
When Toronto plays a buttoned up/veteran team that 'plays the right way' but maybe has a handful of guys who lost a step, Toronto does well. But put them against many high flying/fast skating, even undisciplined 'bad' teams....that is where they have a problem. The Sabres may have something like that going on but with the style of game teams play on the road.
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AT&T confirms service outage, while Verizon says its network is running fine
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5 minutes ago, Weave said:
I swear Adams is purposefully trying to lose the fanbase.
As per this message board, this fan base is so divided I have no idea what he could do where you would not lose half the fan base.
-It seems like there are some people, just by this thread, who want Zemgus gone and wish it happened yesterday. Yet others (like myself) not only don't want him gone, but would be happy to see him here for another year.
-Coaching and GM....some (it seems like the majority at times) are seething that a coaching change hasn't been made yet. Yet others have said they think the issue is other than Granato and don't want him gone...and those posts have more than a few 'likes' to them.
Because of the lack of success of this franchise, opinions on what to do are so divided I have no idea what can, or 'can't' be done without alienating a good portion of the fanbase.
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3 hours ago, Pimlach said:
Did Z score an AHL Level goal last night?
its always easy to point out a stat like I am now after a win and after he scores..but for those who say he brings nothing offensively.....I have said BEFORE this discussion about Zemgus that the best way to evaluate bottom of the roster playrs (3rd and 4th liners) is goals per 60. They get less ice time, so goals per 60 es tells you how much they produce for every minute (or in this case 60 minutes they are on the ice.)
THIS year, he is now 6th on the entire team. Who is better? Just Quinn, Peterka, Thompson, Tuch, and Skinner. He is better than everyone else. Historically for his career, he is 4th liner (should rank 10th-12th) on the team but he usually is higher. He missed most of the year a few seasons before, but every other going back to the Covid year besides that he was ranked 8th (or tied for 8th) in goals per 60 on the team. Not only does he rank higher than a typical 4th liner on this team, but he is consistently higher than an 'average' 4th liner around the league (this year, and pretty much every other year).
So yeah, he doesn't get assists as much. But he scores MORE than a typical 4th liner, he skates well, is a great forchecker, does his job (I'll say this again, on the 4th line is job is LESS to produce offense and MORE to keep the other team in their own zone while your top lines are getting rest), and hes a good (not great) penalty killer (even when he is on the ice PK when a goal is allowed, I RARELY see him as the one out of position).
I have been saying this before this thread even started...but I am totally at a loss for words why people want him gone so badly and think it will help the team by subtraction with him gone. It doesn't make sense on almost any level.
He's not carrying the team to victories, that is not what I'm saying here...so if he IS gone the team won't all of a sudden start losing a ton more games...but as a 4th liner, he is GOOD. The eye test shows it, the stats show it.
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1 minute ago, Pimlach said:
The screen was set and Cozens passed it away. WTF
Cozens has the skillset to be a star. Hockey IQ and awareness, not quite there yet.
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Yes, that is how I do watch the team. If I have nothing going on, they are about 2 hours of entertainment. If I have some stuff to do, often times the game is still on and its 'background noise' while I work around the house or work on the computer.
I only really get slightly upset if I see a game that they lose and is low scoring. Yes, I want the team to win, get better, make the playoffs, etc. But i'm MORE invested in each individual game than I am in the entire season as a whole...because that is exactly how I view them...2 hours of nightly entertainment. Not much more.
I think the fanbase is split into two categories...and many of the arguments on this forum between posters is based on that. Some demand changes because of the long playoff drought, the desire for the team to go deep into the playoffs. We all want that, but a portion of the fanbase, well, that is why you watch sports, to win the championship. Others are able to look at things more positively even when the team is losing, because they are a night-to-night fan, rather than a whole-franchise/season-to-season fan.
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4 hours ago, SwampD said:
I think Tage has looked much better of late. He has even played a little more of a physical game.
It's just weird now that he just can't hit the net. I wonder if it is still his wrist.
He is shooting just as much as he did the last 2 seasons combined, just his shooting percentage the last 2 seasons was almost 50% higher than it is this year. If his shooting percentage was equal to the previous 2 years, he'd be on pace for about 45 goals this year. Hope it IS the wrist, and that is something that can get better.
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41 minutes ago, Night Train said:
8-16-4
17-18-6
17-20-4
12-16-1 this year
If a season ticket holder boos, I get it. Imagine that layout of $ to see no improvement.
My hope is some trades now or in the summer. Talent has to be traded to get a different type of talent that can change the direction. Trying to be positive long term.
Can't defend the above record. Speaks for itself. Go Sabres but come on ! Win at home.
Serious question...what 'type' of talent plays better at home than on the road?
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34 minutes ago, JohnC said:
The main point of my post is reflected by your last sentence. With internal improvement and a few judicious moves this should become a playoff team next year.
With respect to the defensive unit, I have a general/philosophical disagreement with how you and others( @GASabresIUFAN )view the blueline unit. If I had the choice of adding a top two pair player defender at the cost of losing MItts, I say no. I would rather add another Clifton type defender and go with Joki, Ryan Johnson to the upper pairings as support players for Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson. I see a lot of value in Mitts's versatility as a center and winger who could move up to the higher lines when needed.
I'm not arguing for standing pat. That is certainly not what I am advocating here. This franchise has prospect assets and draft assets to parlay. There will be roster spots available for new additions to vie for. With a few judicious moves this should be a better squad. There are those who strenuously and emotionally argue to blow up the roster. In my opinion, they are misguided.
I see where you are coming from at least. Dahlin, Power (whether we want it or not) and Samuelson are going to get their huge minutes. Jokiharju usually gets above average minutes. The top 4 (at least the top 3) on this team WILL get those minutes because of what they invested in them, and they are still young so they need experience. That leaves less minutes for the bottom 3 (or bottom 2, depending on Jokiharju). So, all things being equal, I'd LOVE a good, veterain, top minute (and likely top dollar) guy. But when balancing budget and ice time, the balance between how much use you will get out of a good forward (Mitts) or a good D-man....well, spending $6-$7m on each, you might get more value out of that forward with the way the minutes are split up on this blueline.
I think the going-rate for Mitts will be at last $6m per season, more than likely even higher...and as 'good' as he is, I don't see him as a difference maker. But if he is an important part of the team...yeah, those decisions have to be made.
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51 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:
Hard with young defenseman to guage toughness... Dahlin got tougher after a few years, Bryson too though still a 5-6 but really good skater, Joker's shot one of the few really good from the point and his D is much better... Im ok with bringing in a tough big youngish vet but has to be able to skate... not a lot out there.. check Calgary... maybe Tanev?
Isn't Tanev in his mid 30's, older than Johnson? Not sure I'll have to look it up. I'd be ok with bringing in an older vet on a 1 year deal. Ideally, a 27-29 year old, REAL top 4 guy with 400-500+ games NHL experience would be perfect, but no-one wants to give up those guys. But if you can find an older Vet willing to take 1-2 years, I'll all for having one on the roster. Johnson hasn't been great, but I don't think he has been as bad as many say.
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22 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:
I've yet to see krebs really bring anything to the table. He isn't fast enough, the skills he had don't really pop, loses the puck on the walls pretty consistently, doesn't forecheck or backcheck that well, hes just a dude.
I'm fine lumping him in with Z, KO, EJ, etc. I'd probably buy out skinner, clifton probably too. I'd contemplate moving tuch or Greenway.
Roster needs a serious shakeup, and they will most likely need to make a splash in FA as well as make a couple of trades. Can't keep just rolling in new rookies and hoping they'll pop off, when they're consistently too small and slow to make an impact as rookies.
I agree on Krebs. I know some players take a few years to show what they really are. I know Krebs stats are similar to, or maybe even better than other players at his age (Thompson, maybe Mitts). But after the initial feeling of being happy the Sabres got a top prospect/first round pick at the time of the trade, I really haven't seen anything from him that stands out at all. He seems slow. He rarely wins a loose puck battle. Several times on the backcheck his lack of speed just makes him 1/2-1 step away from getting to the eventual goal scorer. I hear on this forum he has great vision and hockey sense, but I just don't see it get used in the games at all.
So like usual, I am hoping he step up his game. But on a game-to-game basis, I see nothing from him (yet) that makes me think he is anything more than a borderline AHL/NHL guy in the long term. Show me a speed burst even if it doesn't result in a goal. Go into the corner every once in a while against a vet and take the puck away (once a game maybe). Hustle back and be the reason a 2-on-1 turns into a 2-on-2 against and a scoring chance is taken away. Make a good pass once or twice a game that leads to a scoring chance, even if the guy you passed it to doesn't convert it. I am not even seeing many of those 'flashes'.
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8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
John, my comments on your review of the defense:
- We have Dahlin and the rest are all question marks. Everyone after Dahlin is tradeable with the exception of Power who needs a longer look and who's contract makes him almost impossible to move
- Mule had a rough year. Hopefully he gets better next year. We desperately need more physical presence from a guy with his size. His ability to play a tougher game, to clear out the front of the net, and to be rugged and durable is still a major question mark. He has big potential still.
- Power had a sophomore slump. Not gonna comment further, just leave it at that. He is going to be very highly paid next year and he needs to grow up faster than the average defenseman because of it. He has a ton of work to do this off season. Not sure Adams did him any favors - this kid will be making $8.35M and wont be 22 until November. 😞
- We lack the big, strong, steady stay at home RHD that would help Power immensely. This is a major need. We don't need another Clifton - we need a top 4 veteran in his prime years to steady this group and take minutes away from Power. We should be able to add this player and keep Mitts.
- The addition of Clifton is fine for the 3rd pair. He hits, he is a tough middle weight player, he shows ability to clear the net and to be rugged. He has periods of being error prone but as a 5/6/7 that is normal.
- The addition of EJ will end this after this. He was a one year addition, a 3rd line guy now in the twilight of an excellent career. I am not sure he got through to the youngsters, I hope he did. I would love to pick his brain after the season and get his real thoughts on this group and the entire organization.
- Joker - he is playing well most of the time. He does not fill the bill as a top 4. His game is similar to Dahlin, Power, and R Johnson - a puck mover and not a heavy hitter or a defense first guy. His presence "blocks" adding the big tough defensive defenseman that we still need. More of a 5/6 that can move up to top 4 in a pinch. Very tradeable IMO.
- Ryan Johnson - he has played well in sheltered minutes. He looks to be smart, good skater, good passer, his head is up and he is usually composed. He lacks ideal size and strength, but still very young and will get stronger, will rely on mobility, passing and breakout skill to become a solid NHL player. Due to injuries on the team his minutes have gone up lately and he is looking much more like a rookie now. In fact, I thought he was targeted by the Ducks. Despite not having the last line change the Ducks had their best line out there against RJ for all three 2nd period goals. We hardly saw RJ in the 3rd period. Coincidence? This speaks more about the terrible game day coaching that we continually get from Don Granato and his staff. I will be watching Ryan closely tonight as I expect Montreal will try to take advantage.
- Bryson - an AHL/NHL tweener and a 8/9 guy on the roster.
In summary - the defense is better than last year, improving on that was not a high bar either. Some of it is the better goaltending (UPL). Some of it is the better players at 5/6/7. Some of it is the system changes that focus more on defense (and consequently stifles our ability to score).
There need to be changes next year. This still not a playoff caliber group but just a few moves away from it.
I'm in 95+% agreement with you. Johnson is young, we saw last game what CAN happen when a young guy has a bad game. Its probably good they are bringing him on slowly. Power? He SHOULD be very good/great in the long run, but most got a little too high on him last year, he needs time, he needs experience. The rest of the group is at least NHL level. Maybe they are on a 2nd pair when they should be 3rd pair guys....but that is better than in the past when we had borderline AHL/NHL guys playing major minutes. One more legit top 4 addition to this team (even if trading top prospects for him are needed) along with more experience for everyone (yes, even Dahlin is young), and this squad could be very good in the near future.
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Sabres have allowed the fewest goals in the NHL since January 1st
in The Aud Club
Posted · Edited by mjd1001
I'm saying everyone else BESIDES Cozens and Tage. The vast majority of the scoring differene is from them, NOT the rest of the team.
Tage and Cozens are even getting their shots off. Every game Tage is not just getting shots, he is getting quality chances....the 2 of them just aren't converting.
I put this in a different thread as of last week, but the rest of the team besides those 2....they are scoring at almost the same rate as last year, (the slight difference is likely due to top scorers like Skinner and Tuch missing games) they are getting about the same shots as last year. Tage and Cozens are getting about the same shots as last year, they are just converting a lot less (the 2 of them). As a team they are only off 0.9 shots per game from last year. Their team shooting percentage is down from 11 percent to 9.3...again, the vast majority of that drop is due to Tage and Cozens.
If there was a MAJOR change in coaching that was cutting down on the offense, why is everyone else getting (As a TEAM) almost the same production as last year? About the same shots as last year? Even Tage and Cozens are getting just about the same number of shots per game as last year. As much as so many people just want to blame this on Granato, the single biggest difference in offense from this year compared to eveything else is simply Tage and Cozens not converting their shots like they did last year.
If you want to throw VO into the mix...yeah, his decline added to Cozens and Tage add to almost the entire drop off in goals from last year, but very few people expected much from VO.