mjd1001
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Posts posted by mjd1001
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8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
John, my comments on your review of the defense:
- We have Dahlin and the rest are all question marks. Everyone after Dahlin is tradeable with the exception of Power who needs a longer look and who's contract makes him almost impossible to move
- Mule had a rough year. Hopefully he gets better next year. We desperately need more physical presence from a guy with his size. His ability to play a tougher game, to clear out the front of the net, and to be rugged and durable is still a major question mark. He has big potential still.
- Power had a sophomore slump. Not gonna comment further, just leave it at that. He is going to be very highly paid next year and he needs to grow up faster than the average defenseman because of it. He has a ton of work to do this off season. Not sure Adams did him any favors - this kid will be making $8.35M and wont be 22 until November. 😞
- We lack the big, strong, steady stay at home RHD that would help Power immensely. This is a major need. We don't need another Clifton - we need a top 4 veteran in his prime years to steady this group and take minutes away from Power. We should be able to add this player and keep Mitts.
- The addition of Clifton is fine for the 3rd pair. He hits, he is a tough middle weight player, he shows ability to clear the net and to be rugged. He has periods of being error prone but as a 5/6/7 that is normal.
- The addition of EJ will end this after this. He was a one year addition, a 3rd line guy now in the twilight of an excellent career. I am not sure he got through to the youngsters, I hope he did. I would love to pick his brain after the season and get his real thoughts on this group and the entire organization.
- Joker - he is playing well most of the time. He does not fill the bill as a top 4. His game is similar to Dahlin, Power, and R Johnson - a puck mover and not a heavy hitter or a defense first guy. His presence "blocks" adding the big tough defensive defenseman that we still need. More of a 5/6 that can move up to top 4 in a pinch. Very tradeable IMO.
- Ryan Johnson - he has played well in sheltered minutes. He looks to be smart, good skater, good passer, his head is up and he is usually composed. He lacks ideal size and strength, but still very young and will get stronger, will rely on mobility, passing and breakout skill to become a solid NHL player. Due to injuries on the team his minutes have gone up lately and he is looking much more like a rookie now. In fact, I thought he was targeted by the Ducks. Despite not having the last line change the Ducks had their best line out there against RJ for all three 2nd period goals. We hardly saw RJ in the 3rd period. Coincidence? This speaks more about the terrible game day coaching that we continually get from Don Granato and his staff. I will be watching Ryan closely tonight as I expect Montreal will try to take advantage.
- Bryson - an AHL/NHL tweener and a 8/9 guy on the roster.
In summary - the defense is better than last year, improving on that was not a high bar either. Some of it is the better goaltending (UPL). Some of it is the better players at 5/6/7. Some of it is the system changes that focus more on defense (and consequently stifles our ability to score).
There need to be changes next year. This still not a playoff caliber group but just a few moves away from it.
I'm in 95+% agreement with you. Johnson is young, we saw last game what CAN happen when a young guy has a bad game. Its probably good they are bringing him on slowly. Power? He SHOULD be very good/great in the long run, but most got a little too high on him last year, he needs time, he needs experience. The rest of the group is at least NHL level. Maybe they are on a 2nd pair when they should be 3rd pair guys....but that is better than in the past when we had borderline AHL/NHL guys playing major minutes. One more legit top 4 addition to this team (even if trading top prospects for him are needed) along with more experience for everyone (yes, even Dahlin is young), and this squad could be very good in the near future.
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16 hours ago, Thorny said:
More of the same pigeonhole the problems logic.
This franchise hasn’t made the playoffs in *13 years*. We do not have the luxury of turning up our noses at *any* kind of improvement that can be salvaged. How could we? Didn’t we miss the playoffs by a solitary point last year? What are we doing here?
I’m not saying Girgs has to go but yet again, your post reads like, “well, he’s ALMOST a good enough 4th liner, it’s fine.”
No. You seem to be looking for reasons to avoid replacing players, when the mindset should be to improve in any area possible, if at all possible
a bunch of small things that “aren’t really the main issue” quickly stack up and BECOME an issue when you dismiss away thing after thing under this principle
My intent of the post was to say you aren't getting $2.5m worth of performance/games out of him (especially because he does miss games due to injury), but I don't think there is an obvious improvement for him. This team had room under the cap. If you could sign/find a guy who was going to be better for sure, then sign him. But, If you can't find a guy better (and that is my main point) I don't get rid of Zemgus to replace him with an 'equal part' to save $1m per year while this team is under the cap.
Again, if there IS a guy out there for $2.5m who is better than him who is willing to take that 4th line role on this team then sure. But who is that guy that they turned away? I haven't even heard rumors of who it might be....so with that being said, Give me Zemgus for whatever you are paying him (as long as its a 1 year deal) than just putting some other replacement level player in there.
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1 hour ago, JohnC said:
I read your well reasoned and written post. However, from an overview perspective you essentially conclude that the Sabres are in a good situation for the not-too-distant future. I agree with assessment! To a great extent, the roster has been rebuilt and the system is well stocked. (As you point out.) Most NHL analysts also agree with that take.
Go back and review most of our losses. What you will find is that the difference between winning and losing is very small. Again, this season has been a major disappointment. But I don't believe that we are that far away. There is nothing wrong with taking a break when it becomes too stressful and frustrating to follow. Those same exasperating sensations apply to most of us. Stand back a little farther and hang in there.
Next year, the roster will have some changes. I doubt that Okposo and possibly Girgs won't be on the roster.
I agree with a lot of what you said.
As mentioned earlier, some fans are just at the end of the rope with wanting this team to make the playoffs. I get that. I am there at some times. But I have found out that I am happier as a fan, happier as a person when I view the team as entertainment for 2 hours a night and not get too caught up on when are they going to win the cup.
I don't think this team needs wholesale changes. I for sure don't think it needs to be blown up. The single biggest issue I think this team has is how the forwards play in their own zone, my target has been Cozens. And in the past month or two, they have gotten drastically better. Its a small sample size, but to me that is 40% of the problem with this team. I'm hopeful it has been fixed. Even in their losses lately, you can't watch the games with your own eyes and not notice the forwards are making a LOT less mistakes than they were for the first part of the season.
The majority of the other issue is scoring. Again, mostly Tage and Cozens, but I really think this roster is not as good scoring as they were last year, but they are better than they have been this year.
I believe in UPL as a legit NHL starter. I don't get myself tied up in a knot over the performance of the 4th line...and I think Okposo is done after this year anyway..and I like Girgensons play as a 4th liner. This is the youngest D-corp in the league and D-men take time to learn the game, they are going to get better with games played and I don't think they have been awful this year (Despite the Johnson and Johnson game yesterday which may have been the worst game by a D-pair I have ever seen)
So what changes would I make? Get a top 2-3 level D-man. That is the hard part, but that would be my #1 priority. Change how the Power play executes...how I'm not sure..but what I am sure is that it isn't working so do something different (different assistant coach?) Bring in one more forward who you think can get you 20 goals a year AND is a full speed ahead, pest, maybe drops the gloves without having his face messed up guy. That and the top 2-3 d-man are hard to find, have to trade some prospects to get it, go ahead. But Blow it up? Change the coach and GM? For me to think that it is nothing more than an emotional reaction. Do the above and I'm 100% happy going into next season.
I like this thread because I sometimes personally have a hard time with the level of vitriol on this forum for heads to roll. Based on this teams history over the past decade it might be the right amount of hate, but for me its just too much at times. I sometimes get criticized for 'not seeing what is really going on with this team' because I tend to support some players and coaches more than others want, but that is jut some of us trying to find some positiive things.
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26 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
You think most of the team is better this year except Tage and Cozens?
Without retyping my entire other post....yes. less chances allowed, slightly less goals scored with a lot less goals allowed....so yes.
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How positive or negative we are as fans also has to do with what type of fans of the team we are.
There are some people that want to win. Do what it takes to be one of the top teams. Someone isn't doing the job, make a change. Over a decade without playoffs means that more drastic changes have to be made. A lot (most) of us are like that.
Then there are others, who view the Sabres as just entertainment. (I used to be the above, now I've become one of these.) I WANT them to win of course, but just entertain me. Score some goals. Win more than you lose. Thats all I want now. Honestly I sometimes like the discussion about the team on these forums more than liking the games, and I'm OK with that.
Some people don't understand this, and that is OK....but for me (and a FEW others), we can see the positives more becasue we have lower expectations. We WANT a cup, we WANT them to be the best team in the league, but we don't EXPECT that, we just expect to be entertained. Sometimes I think I might get MORE frustrated than those with higher expectations..I think...I have lower expecations, and you STILL can't do that...but in the end, they lose, I post on here, but I look forward to the next game.
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ON the Adams vs Beane thing....Maybe the moves they make, not only are the run by Pegula, but they are dependant on where they are/think they are with the team.
They both "cleaned out the old core". Once the Bills had Allen, I'm going to 'assume' they knew he would be good a little sooner than we did (they see him in practice, they see how he quickly he picks up on things, etc" So once they had Allen, Beane was given the green light to start taking those risks......
On the SABRES however, Pegula was burned many times with 'false starts". Erhoff and Leino would get to be more than just a 'playoff team'. Eichel and Reinhart would turn the team around right away. Trading futures for Leino and Kane would put them on the right path....there are many other things. It could just be that Pegula is WILLING to allow adams to make those changes, but he wants to see (or be convinced) that this team is READY for major moves before he allows it.
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
3) Forwards - An outsider looking at the Sabres has to wondering how a team that played with such spirit last season; playing hard from the opening puck drop until the final horn blew, completely last their edge. On paper this maybe the most talented roster the Sabres have fielded on offense since 2006. There are 6 Sabres forwards capable of scoring 30+ goals a season in the NHL in TNT, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Quinn and JJP. Mitts and Greenway have 20+ goal potential. Benson’s upside is hard to gauge at this point, but 25g, 65 pts seems reasonable. So where did the offense go? Bad coaching? Injuries? Lack of effort? Why also won’t they commit to two-way play? Once these talented guys figure out the effort questions and the 2-way play question, the sky is still the limit for this team.
It is a small sample size, but since the turn of the calendar to 2024, I think the forwards have gotten a LOT better in this regard. Like a night and day difference. From one of the worst teams I have ever seen, to recently playing above average in their own end. Now if only they could have Tage catch fire like he did last year scoring....
If you want to be positive, there are things there to be positive about, just you have to look through the 'fog of the results' of the season to see them. Goaltending looks really good. Overall Defensive play (D-men and forwards in their own zone) has taken a drastic turn up recently...and they are allowing less goals and shots overall compared to last year. Quinn (when he plays) looks really good. Peterka looks REALLY good. Tuch has taken a step back due to injuries, but even with those injuries he has shown/proven he is more of a 20-25 (maybe 30) goal scorer for you than a guy who will only get in the teens.
To be a playoff team/force in the league, I think this team is a single LEGIT top 4 D-man (not a guy you have to convnice you is a top 4 guy, but a legit one), a season without major injury problems, and one more player developing into a 'feared' nhl level goal scorer that isn't there yet. That along with every single game the young D-corp geting more experience is all I think this team may need. I don't think you need to 'blow up the roster', you don't need to fire Adams and the entire coaching staff...etc. MAYBE trading some prospects for a top 9 guy who is 'hard to pay against' would help too, but there is a lot here to work with.
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32 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:
0 assists in almost 40 games is not playing the right way.
If your job is to do other things then it certainly can be. If your job is to forecheck, keep the puck in other zone, then it sure can be.
If you are tying up players on the other team on the boards while linemates control he puck, then it can be.
If you are told that you are to go out there, tire out the other team, chase them around with a relentless forcheck, while your team's goal scorers are getting a breather on the bench, it can be.
I guess the only reason it is not 'playing the right way' is if that is one of the things that you want to use to support your argument.
Why would you just 'waive' a player to send a message, until you find out just what his value is on the open market anyway?
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18 minutes ago, davidkski said:
Projection and convoluted deflection are amusing ways to try and dodge an issue, but not very effective.
Why are you incapable of answering a sincere and straightforward question?
The way this franchise is run, and these players play, there are countless reasons to be angry - yet most posters here remain clear-headed enough to maintain a sense of civility in their discussions.
So what is it about the concept of people having harmless fun with a player's unusual name that makes you lose your composure and resort to schoolyard name-calling?
Has UKKo PeKKa LuKKonen somehow indicated to you that he objects to being called 6K?
Or is it just a you problem?
BINGO! and that is exactly what you are doing also by responding this way. I said a nickname was dumb, and I explained clearly I felt that way because that player already has a nickame that is widely used. It rubs you that wrong way that I said that? You are and Hank are SO thin skinned that you continue this converstation? I moved on from in a week ago, the only reason I keep on posting things like this is because of people bringining it up again after I left it behind.
Telling someone that while you are doing it yourself....CLASSIC example of what you are doing by continuing to bring it up.
And I said I don't like a nickanme for a player pushed by a poster (or a couple) when the player already has a widely used nickname. First time I saw it on here, I legit didn't know who the heck was being talked about until I opened the thread and read a bit. For you to call me out is a joke, I have had a lot more people respond to things I said and called them a LOT worse things than what I said. This is why this forum at times, and SOME posts can be a joke. I am generally more civil to other posters than they are to me many, MANY times, and the one time I express that I legit think something is there that I don't like I get called out on it? That is a joke, as is the back and forth about this topic that for some reason I am choosing to engage in.
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Just now, JoeSchmoe said:
On this crap team, only Yost and Robinson have a worse goals for % than Girgensons.
He's also 7th out of 8th in PK goals against per 60 (min 25min). Only Krebs is worse.
I'm sorry I don't evaluate how good a player is based on their statistics for a half season of play... And certainly I don't cherry pick statistics to only support my argument. That worked maybe in the 1980s when you were building your team in strat-o-matic hockey, but that's not the way player evaluation should work
If we moved on from a player every single time some of their stats go down for just a portion of one particular season... And not actually watching them play and see they are still effective at skating, at forchecking, and don't cause problems in your own zone.... Well, then you'd have a lot worse of a team than you have now.
But hey... If picking a whipping boy... And hammering away on him and hammering away at any single person who responds to you who disagrees makes you feel better, I guess have at it.
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14 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:
If you can get a pick for him, fine. I just don't see a team dumb enough to do it. This is a case of fans falling in love with a player and not looking objectively of what he might have to offer a team that's better than us.
I'll say it again... The only way we get rid of him is if we take back an even bigger problem.
Amongst forwards with at least 300 5 on 5 minutes played, he's 365 out of 380. What playoff team is looking for that?
Playoff teams aren't looking primarily to increase their scoring from their fourth line. Playoff teams are looking for a fourth liner that will play hard... That will kill penalties... And that will not hurt them when they're on the ice. Basically... Go out there and eat up 8 to 12 minutes a game without allowing any goals... While our top two lines can get a breather on the bench.
In a lot of cases, that is exactly what playoff teams are looking for.
I don't get how some people can look at this in such a linear way. If your roster is top heavy and you rely on your top 6 to 8 guys to score... Your bottom guys don't have to score that much. They have to be part of a fourth line unit that doesn't allow a lot of goals to be scored against you.... They can pin the other team in their own zone... While the guys you rely on to score are getting that rest on the bench. On my fourth line... I will gladly give up five goals per year that someone can score.... If they play hard and they play well in most other aspects of the game and they aren't the liability causing me to make up even more than five goals per year the other way.
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He skates hard. He's probably the second best forchecker on the team next to Tuch. And his scoring per 60 minutes... Which is the way that you evaluate someone with limited ice time... Isn't that much different than a typical fourth liner around the league. He's also probably in your top five penalty killing in terms of forwards over his career. He hasn't really lost a step in skating.
Is he worth 2.5 million per year? No, but you're not up against the cap. For the role he serves. He's perfectly fine.
I really do not understand the hate that some people have for him and the rush to get him off of the team. You're not changing this team's fortunes by changing up a fourth line Winger, certainly not one who actually doesn't cause you major problems day in and day out. Personally, as long as the team isn't up against the salary cap, I'd like him back next year if you want to still be here.
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On 2/17/2024 at 6:13 PM, Marvin said:
There goes that theory. It is the offence in general.
13 goals gets them to be a positive in goal differential.
I posted this in a previous thread, but every team that was a positive in the goal differential in the east has made the playoffs the past couple of years, and every team that has been a negative in goal differential has missed the playoffs
In the west it's not 100% but it's usually one team away from being 100%.
So yeah, we don't know where those 13 goals could be sprinkled around but... If history is any guide, being positive and goal differential put you in the playoffs or right on the edge of it so it definitely could make the difference.
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Ok, another way to look at this....with the conclusion that MOST of this team is better than last year except for Cozens and Tage.
-Last year Cozens and Tage combined accounted for 0.95 goals per game. This year .49 (.0.46 less per game)
-The REST of the team besides (Tage and Cozens) last year accounted for 2.62 goals per game. This year 2.44 (only 0.18 less). Account for Tuch, Quinn, and Skinner being some of your top goal producers and the games they missed due to injury compared to last year, and that may account for that entire difference.
Defense?
-In terms of Goals allowed per game, the team this year is allowing 3.07 vs 3.62 last year (0.55 per game)
So, besides Tage and Cozens, the team has taken a slight hit in offense, but is doing better on defense by a greater margin. OVERALL the entire team (besides those 2 guys) is doing BETTER than last year in terms of goals scored versus goals allowed.
Also The goals per game allowed are down quite a bit, but its not just goaltending. They are also allowing less shots per game than last year. UPL is allowing less behind him, but in part that is because the goalies are facing less shots. Either way, they are allowing a lot less goals than last year.
A common complaint is the team has focused on defense but at the expense of offense. True on the surface, but again, the vast majority of that offensive shortfall is just 2 players. The rest of the team as a whole has made big strides defensively without really hurting their offensive game much.
How about the Power Play?
-Cozens and Tage LAST year accounted for goals scored on 9.3% of Power plays with between just those 2. This year? 3.8% (a 5.3% drop) The team as a whole besides those two went from 14.1% to 10.8%, (a 3.3% drop). Cozens and Tage combined account for a greater drop in PP production than the rest of the team combined.
-PK. Last year 73%. The team has lost 3.3% on the power play, but has made up 6.8% on the PK. Net-net an improvement on the roster as a whole minus Tage and Cozens
In MOST metrics (including the big ones listed above) this team is performing better in many ways compared to last year besides Cozens and Tage. That doesn't mean the team doesn't have flaws, or didn't last year. But something to think about. Fix those 2 guys and you likely have a better team than that you had last year.
Maybe Granato needs to go, after all he does coach the entire team INCLUDING Tage and Cozens so he is responsible for them too. But when you look at the numbers....again, Net-Net the team is better in goals scored/goals allowed overall besides those 2 guys.
Blowing the whole team up, Firing Granato and Adams....If that is what it takes to get Tage and Cozens going again then fine. But I don't think its the best idea overall. This team needs SERIOUS surgery with a Scalpel, doesn't need the sledgehammer to the head in light of all the info above.
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2013-14 team would probably have to be the one in recent history. Yeah, the start of the tank I get it, but that team was dreadful to watch.
In a full season, your leading point producers had in the low 40s, those were your offensive STARS. You had a total of 4 players with double digit goals. 65 points out of the division lead. The team scored UNDER TWO goals per game. Looking up and down the roster, no-one I really liked. This current team isn't even close to that team for me.
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Its not that the Fan salue is a big deal, its not that its needed in anyway. BUT, once you start doing it, it becomes noticable by its absense.
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To me this isn't a huge deal, but it is an issue. Why? To me there are 2 main reasons to be a fan or enjoy being a fan of a team, 2 things that make watching a team enjoyable:
1.) They win the championship.
2.) If they don't win the championship, the at least show improvement from the previous season, giving the fans entertainment AND hope that they are on the WAY to winning the championship sometime in the near future.
I think that is 90%+ of what makes a season enjoyable.
Well, this team isn't doing any of those 2 things, So they ONLY think they have to fall back on is.....for some fans...are they "likeable". Its not much, but if you aren't doing the first 2, being 'likeable' to many fans is all they can hold onto.
Well, this team ISN'T doing the first 2, and a story like this coming out sure doesn't make them very likeable. The are hockey players, but lets be honest....they are not so much paid to pay hockey as they are to ENTERTAIN by playing hockey. The Customer who pays their salary is the fans. As an Enterainer, they players (the organization) should realize all of the above.
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3 minutes ago, OverPowerYou said:
It’s going to be hard to follow this team until Granato, Adams, Okposo, Mittelstadt and Oloffaon and Girgensons are gone. Great peoples, just wastes of space on an NHL team
See, even as fans we totally disagree on the problem. For me, the reason this team has take a step back has to do with: Tage and Cozens lack of production, injuries, Power being vastly over-rated at this point in his career, and whatever assistant is in charge of the day to day of the PP. To me all of those things I listed rank WAY above any that you have listed in terms of what is wrong/needs to change with the team.
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It comes down to...the fans can do what they want/boo when they want/chant what they want....and the players can choose to respond the way they are. Its all in each person's right to do so.
HOWEVER, what do the players expect from the fans? Some of them spending a good portion of their monthly entertainment dollar to see that effort/result, which by the way its pretty direct that the money the fans spend is what pays the players salary....and when the fans witness that effort, do the players expect the fans to cheer for them and wish they better luck next time so their feelings aren't hurt?
You would think that any chant the Fans have..."Fire Donny", "Fire Adams", "Pegula S**ks"....anything should right away be translated in the players heads to a simple "do better".
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I don't mind Bryson and Clifton THAT much as a #3 pair getting 13-14 minutes in a game. Its an issue when they are the #2 guys and getting about 20 minutes in a game.
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2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:
Kings beat the Bruins today in or, so maybe our 7-0 win was a good win or something
And the loss to Florida maybe doesn't look as bad as they are winning 9-1 right now half way through the 3rd against Tampa.
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I really hate games like this. I'd rather see a sloppy five to five game than a 0-0 goaltenders battle. But. .
It's not just UPL.... Since the beginning of the year, the defenseman and even the forwards in their own zone have been playing better, a lot better. Are they perfect? No, but the amount of plays where they're out of position or the blatant awful turnovers.... They are way down.
Now only if someone can score.
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1 minute ago, Sidc3000 said:
Will the Sabres pp realize that Tage is a non-factor. Every team knows that they will pass to Tage every chance they get.
It seems to me that last year they started to cover him the same way that... But he used a little skating and quickness to side step some of the players and if he didn't get off the one timer, he got off another good shot. I don't see that at all from him this year.
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Not only do Thompson's one-timers seem to have a little bit less on them this year.... He seems to be lining up and taking them from deeper in the zone.. on a little bit worse of an angle.
Girgensons Is No Longer An NHL Level Player ?
in The Aud Club
Posted
I agree on Krebs. I know some players take a few years to show what they really are. I know Krebs stats are similar to, or maybe even better than other players at his age (Thompson, maybe Mitts). But after the initial feeling of being happy the Sabres got a top prospect/first round pick at the time of the trade, I really haven't seen anything from him that stands out at all. He seems slow. He rarely wins a loose puck battle. Several times on the backcheck his lack of speed just makes him 1/2-1 step away from getting to the eventual goal scorer. I hear on this forum he has great vision and hockey sense, but I just don't see it get used in the games at all.
So like usual, I am hoping he step up his game. But on a game-to-game basis, I see nothing from him (yet) that makes me think he is anything more than a borderline AHL/NHL guy in the long term. Show me a speed burst even if it doesn't result in a goal. Go into the corner every once in a while against a vet and take the puck away (once a game maybe). Hustle back and be the reason a 2-on-1 turns into a 2-on-2 against and a scoring chance is taken away. Make a good pass once or twice a game that leads to a scoring chance, even if the guy you passed it to doesn't convert it. I am not even seeing many of those 'flashes'.