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DarthEbriate

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  1. why is the PK so much better?

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    At this time last year, Levi was being rushed, Reimer was with San Jose, and Luukkonen was fall flat after and solid previous season. 

    This year, we have the veteran in the lineup and playing almost exclusively. The kid (Ellis) has played one “no one has video on me yet” game, and Luukkonen has had one good showing and one messy one. 

  2. Sabres Prospect Pool 2025-26

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

    Now that we are into the season,  which prospects do you consider future NHL players.

    I think this is a pretty good list of who in our system has a chance (some more than others) of becoming an everyday NHL player.  That said, who do you think will actually make it.  I'm feeling better about Rosen and Levi. Mrtka looks like a future star, and I like Kozak as a long-term depth NHLer.  Anyone else?

    Goalies?  Levi, Ratzlaff, Leenders, Leinonen

    Defense?  Mrtka, Novikiov, Komarov, Strbak, Kleber, Osburn. McCarthy, Bedkowski?

    Forwards?  Kozak, Rosen, Östlund, Helenius, Wahlberg, Zeimer, Neuchev. Richard

    Levi will make it in Buffalo or elsewhere. He's not going to be a legend, but a solid tandem guy is within reach. Leenders maybe. As long as Adams is GM, Leinonen will get a fair (or unfair) look in Sabreland. 

    Mrtka, Novikov, Strbak. And I think Osburn: the kid sees the game well. Kleber is the one I don't know, but I assume he will because of his draft status and size. He'll get chances.

    I do think Poltapov will arrive as a 3W. How long he's in Buffalo I don't know, but I think he gets a full season in the bottom 6 and acquits himself fine which leads him to a good little 2-3 years at minimum.

    Kozak is already in if can stay healthy. 

    Rosén, Östlund, Helenius, Wahlberg, Zeimer, and Richard make it for me. They all can fit on a roster if it's constructed well.

    • Like (+1) 2

  3. GDT: Capitals @ Sabres, 7:00pm Nov. 1, 2025, 🎙 📺 ESPN+/MSG

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

    I mean, if you got a loser point every game of the season, that might be good enough to get you in the playoffs. It's better than consolation.

    Note, if you only got a loser point in every game you'd be 0-0-82. In the offseason, the GM would say "We were really competitive. We were a .500 hockey team last year." And the fans would tell the GM, "Go to hell. We never won a single game. We finished 10 points back of the final wild card and are drafting #9 overall."

    You have to win more game than you lose except in extremely rare cases as @bg17 notes below. When you do lose, get the loser points if you can.

    It's like in the NFL. In 2010, the Seahawks went 2-6 vs. the AFC West and NFC South... but the rest of their division also sucked against those like opponents. They won their division with a 7-9 record (and won their home playoff game). They then got trounced in the divisional round (they scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and lost by two scores) -- because they weren't a good team (yet). If they'd have been competing for the wild card they'd have finished as the 8th seed and 3 games back.

    13 minutes ago, bg17 said:

    23-24 Islanders made the playoffs with 39 wins - the same number as the Sabres. NYI had 16 loser points. They all count.

    Now, just win baby!

  4. Goaltending sucks this year leaguewide

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

    I didn’t mean to imply that the drop in save percentage wasn’t accurate, just that it didn’t start this year.

    Access to new data has changed a lot of what has always been believed about all sports. Teams are adapting and changing the way games are played. It’s actually quite fascinating.

    Yes -- my response to your initial comment was that if you only looked at last year you wouldn't see it as a big anomaly. But taken together, last year and this year have seen a really big jump beyond the existing trend.

     

    It won't compete with @matter2003's high danger data, but another thing to take into account: goalie gear restrictions. Hasek and Brodeur famously were rocking sweaters 4 sizes too big, etc. But since 2005-06 post-lockout, there have been multiple changes to goalie pad sizes and even an additional jersey regulation in 2018.

    Just like the other sports -- the Shield wants more offense.

  5. Goaltending sucks this year leaguewide

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 hour ago, tom webster said:

    Not sure what you are talking about. Last year only ten teams finished above .900 and Buffalo finished 31st st .879 ahead of only the Flyers.

    Last year and this season (so far) have been abnormally low for team save percentages. We're still early in 25-26 so there's likely some clutter and teams will tighten up a bit as the season goes on, but it's notable. Team percentages also include empty net goals, so you could be seeing a bit more "risk + screw it, we're down 2 with 5 minutes left, let's pull the goalie early" goals than in previous seasons.

    Here are team save percentages going back a bit:
    2025 .890
    2024 .893
    2023 .898
    2022 .899
    2021  .902
    2020 .903
    2019  .905
    2018  .905
    2017  .908
    2016  .910
    2015  .910   3 on 3 OT in effect
    2014  .911
     

    And you go back to the dead puck era thinking it'll be monstrously higher... No, not really. (Makes you appreciate Hasek all the more.)
    2004  .908
    2003  .906
    2002  .905
    2001   .901
    2000  .902
    1999   .906

     

    As to why.

    • I don't think it's the goaltenders themselves: they are positionally sound, make spectacular saves, etc. There are subpar goalies, yes. But we've seen much better shot selection in recent years. Teams aren't just shooting from the blue line and hoping, they're much more patient with the puck.
    • Power plays have had some abnormally high success rates (three teams had a 28+ PP% last year and the league average was over 21% -- which is rising in general in recent years).
    • Since it was introduced 3 on 3 overtimes have changed from "skate and shoot" to possess and exit the zone, but maintain possession at all costs -- working for the high danger shot. (Luukkonen was great last night and made 5 saves, but prior to that this season the Sabres had given up 3 goals on 5 shots to rock a .400 sv%).

    I think in general it's the offensive coaches putting analytics and video to good effect.

    • Like (+1) 3
    • Thanks (+1) 1

  6. GDT: Capitals @ Sabres, 7:00pm Nov. 1, 2025, 🎙 📺 ESPN+/MSG

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    Just now, Sabres73 said:

    I'm wasn't talking about wanting to be in the playoffs. I was talking about our record being over .500. Which you've acknowledged by saying six teams are under .500. This isn't overly complicated.

    I said six teams are under "NHL .500". This is an important distinction because NHL .500 is a fabricated term that tries to combine two different systems: W/L and loser points that impact points percentage. They're not the same units of measure.

     

    True .500 = W/L. How many have they won? 5. How many have they lost? 7. That's it. That's what .500 is.

    NHL .500 is a fabrication that allows GMs/coaches/fans to ignore losses if they choose. It's useless. Like I said: Six of 32 teams are below NHL .500. 

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 2

  22. GDT: Capitals @ Sabres, 7:00pm Nov. 1, 2025, 🎙 📺 ESPN+/MSG

    in The Aud Club

    Posted

    1 minute ago, K012010 said:

    If you want the Bills to win a Super Bowl, you best be rooting for the Dodgers

    There are scenarios where I would root for the Bills in a Super Bowl, but none of those scenarios are active yet.

    Why, though? The Dodgers have won the WS numerous times in franchise history (8 - after looking it up) and the Bills haven't won any. There's no causation or correlation.

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