Randall Flagg
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Posts posted by Randall Flagg
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8 minutes ago, sodbuster said:
Why didn't they go for two on the second TD? I feel like the math makes sense there.
You either go up 4 or 6 instead of 5. Either way, 4 or 5 requires a TD to beat you. If you make it, 6 makes them make the XP. If you stop them, a FG makes it 7 or 9.
Maybe I'm making a bigger deal of this than it is, but that seems like a detail that somebody on the staff should be paying attention to. It didn't make a difference tonight, but it could have, and it would matter against a better team.
I thought the same thing. I usually get that stuff wrong in real time though haha
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That was a football game that 90% of the NFL plays 11-13 times per year. We have been privileged enough that we should always (rightfully) expect to be above that against an opponent like this, but it didn't happen. And the Bills lose this game fairly frequently when it does happen. They didn't tonight, and that's something I guess.
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By the way, the coordinator says that almost every play call on that touchdown drive was called in the first half, and he says "execution sure does make a difference doesn't it"
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3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:
Hey! Dorsey did good!
They called like 8 different types of run plays on that drive. It was impressive. There's a D1 defensive coordinator that posts on 2 bills drive, he's keeping track of them
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Sorry guys, I don't have any measured optimism for this one.
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Has Savoie ever even seen NHL preseason action? Did he last year? I don't think he did this year
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Such a weird day around the league, hoping the Bills don't tap into any of that. Give me normal, boring, and get out with a healthy squad and a W
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I would try to make a trade to replace olofsson. Yes, that's hard to do now, but we are only in that difficult spot because we didn't do anything when Quinn got hurt before the draft and free agency
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29 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:
Can someone explain to me in detail, but simply, what xGf% is supposed to mean, AND how it is calcuated?
Picture Jokiharju lobbing a wrist shot from the point. then picture Kucherov one-timing the puck from the faceoff dot on a cross-crease pass. Those two shots on goal are not equal. In fact, because the NHL tracks shot locations and has for a long time, you can fairly say that "wrist shots from that spot have a shooting percentage of 0.9% over the last 20 years." Obviously the circumstances of the shots vary from that sample, but it's a big sample, even though who is taking it matters, the degree the goalie is screened matters, and the goalie himself matters. For every point on the ice you can say "historically, NHL shooters score x% of the time from this spot with this shot type" and it lines up with intuition - the slot is dangerous, one-timers are dangerous, back-foot wristers from the point are not dangerous, shots from the low wall/corner are not dangerous etc.
xGF just adds your shots up from the game but weights each shot by this percentage/how "good" the shot is. So your xGF goes up more if you take 10 shots from the slot than if you take 10 point shots. Now, the whole number at the end of the game doesn't really mean anything - an xGF of 3.8 doesn't mean "you should have scored 3.8 goals" but if you have an xGF of 3.8 and your opponent had 1.9, and you do that every night, you are more dangerous than them and should win more games. When you start tracking it up to 30-40 games it begins to correlate with a team's record more than most other individual stats do on their own.Ultimately, it means "are you generating or giving up a lot of dangerous shots?"
1 hour ago, Pimlach said:What is this?
It represents my overwhelming despair at the direness of our circumstances
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1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:
So let's hope Savoie takes VO spot when healthy
43 minutes ago, steveoath said:This!
30 minutes ago, Pimlach said:Or Kulich if he is ready.
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21 minutes ago, kas23 said:
Let’s hope so, we don’t want him fired in a couple months.
Not so sure you're right about that:)
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Only having 8 guys above 40% is something. Benson obviously doesn't have it as easy as it was in the preseason, but his instincts are still shining. How many points would it take through 9 games to have to keep him up?
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Matthews has doubled the Sabres goal scoring through two games
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7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:
FyI folks: The Sabres were 9-11-0 after 20 games last season and then lost the next 2.
They missed the playoffs last season
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Crazy to think of what these 2 games look like had we sent the 18 year old back to the WHL
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1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:
They needed a top 4 D, a vet or two to help at forward, and to add one good goalie to a room that has a 22 year old and 2 horrendous goalies. They did literally ***** none of that, and also lost their 2RW
I've never liked Kevyn as much as most of you, but I'm starting to get the rumblings of the feelings I'd get whenever I saw/heard Botts talk. We are an early season slide away from "get this guy away from my ***** hockey team" and we have already started the slide and have Tampa coming up next. Let's see what you guys have got, I guess. Tampa can probably smell our trepidation and fear
Keep in mind that it has never, ever been so simple to make the Sabres a shoe-in. Not since the co-captains were here. Do one or two of these three simple things, and we'll see you in April! And the clown just sat there with that goofy grin for six straight months. Completely insane
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They needed a top 4 D, a vet or two to help at forward, and to add one good goalie to a room that has a 22 year old and 2 horrendous goalies. They did literally ***** none of that, and also lost their 2RW
I've never liked Kevyn as much as most of you, but I'm starting to get the rumblings of the feelings I'd get whenever I saw/heard Botts talk. We are an early season slide away from "get this guy away from my ***** hockey team" and we have already started the slide and have Tampa coming up next. Let's see what you guys have got, I guess. Tampa can probably smell our trepidation and fear
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I'm sorry for freaking out a bit, but it's not about this game, our offseason was baffling, and every single potential red flag it presented is at full mast in gale force winds just 2 games in, and not one shred of the "here's why it can work" is visible in any corner of the ice. And nobody is looking or playing like they have any idea what to do with the expectations, or with the huge monster that's stepped in their path that needs to be tackled before it knocks the whole journey astray.
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Just now, phil_soisson said:
I would have rather kept Kulich.
Why is every decision we make and every realistic alternative to that decision somehow involving a kid who has never seen or done anything at a professional level?
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Just now, LGR4GM said:
Going to bed. The panic mode and lack of perspective here isn't my vibe so have it.
Thanks for doing this way less obnoxiously than Zamboni lol
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3 minutes ago, Thorny said:
The Bengals made the SB after an 0-2 start and that represented 13% of their season. The Sabres can overcome 0-2 over 82
don’t worry, I got you
Their defense forced about 100 tipped ball interceptions along the way to cover for their 23 year old QB managing about 3 touchdown drives in 45 playoff drives that year. Where is our ultra-vet-competence to match that gonna come from?
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1 minute ago, Thorny said:
Because Quinn got hurt and we weren’t proactive
that’s the actual answer right? It falls under the “hindsight need not apply” things like defensive supplements and backup goalie
We added that number 75 who keeps barfing all over the ice, received a devastating injury to our 2RW who was going to break out in a big way, and decided to replace him with Olofsson, a guy we were otherwise going to ship out for a 3rd round pick. We added a 90 year old Erik Johnson (who is stable but is impacting the game as much as an old bottom pair D-man can) and re-signed our most dubious forwards, and then handed out a long term contract to a guy who is still at the "grinding in the Viridian Forest for experience" stage of his career.
That is a JOKE unless it works. It hasn't started working yet. -
7 minutes ago, Pimlach said:
He is not on that big contract and we are aware that he is 20 years old. Don’t say he is slacking off. He is young and learning fast. .
I am very careful to not criticize his play in a vacuum. He is doing remarkable things for his age. It's not his fault that he has to ride that ride as the 2nd most important defenseman on a team desperate to make the playoffs.
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Every player making more than 5 million dollars on this team is so disappointing. I don't need 10 goals from each of them instantaneously, but they are all playing so poorly. It is inexcusable for Tage, Skinner, Cozens to play like this. These guys are standing in concrete, and lean on their sticks with the strength of someone in elementary school.
Power isn't disappointing me at all. this is how it works when you're a 20 year old defenseman. Flashes of good things, wild roller coaster rides with INSANE lows, like getting walked by a geriatric Kyle Palmeiri, horrible giveaways pinching with no support. But you CANNOT have an 8 million dollar guy doing that. INSANITY. Kevyn, you guys have done NOTHING yet!!
0-2-0 coming to face Tampa. You can't just decide that you've made it when the sun is shining 14 hours per day. You have to actually show up.
Levi hasn't been a PROBLEM. But he has been a young goalie, and has done nothing to make me think our issues back there are remotely close to being solved. He's so young too. Young players ride the rollercoaster, it is inescapable, and we have way too many guys in important spots riding that ride to start a season that is so important.
We are already close to things getting out of hand. Tampa is one of the best teams in the world, and 0-3-0 with 3 losses to 3 teams we will be chasing is rapidly approaching a catastrophic start. Is there any reason I should not be extremely worried about the whose hands we are in to steady this?
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Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread
in The Aud Club
Posted
(i'm pretty sure the tape is going to show that dorsey was fine today)